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COSMIC | GEOPHYSICAL | GEOPOLITICAL | SPIRITUAL | TRANSFORMATIONS Geophysical Watch
Monitoring The Changes In The Earth May 4, 2009 Topic keywords: Earth's Wobble - Polar Motion - True Polar Wander - La Nina - El Nino - Ocean Climate Regimes - North Atlantic Oscillation - North Pacific Gyre - Pacific Equator - World Weather - Earthquakes - Volcanism - Hurricanes - Global Warming Syndrome Earthquakes Volcanoes Drought Fire Tectonic Shape-shifting Syzygy Predictions ARCHIVE | HOME | SEARCH | SUBSCRIBE | UNSUBSCRIBE --- HOW TO USE THIS SITE |
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The Changes
In | Earth's Wobble | World Weather | Earthquakes | Volcanism | |
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EARTH'S WOBBLE - POLAR MOTION: Spin Axis, Magnetic Poles
Image is from WobbleTracker software, drawn by MWM Graph Scale is set to 1.0 arcseconds, Grid Size =
0.05 arcseconds This chart shows the location of the North Spin
Axis relative to the “map coordinates” which were established at the end of
the 19th century. A drift
of over 50 feet since 1900 in the circular track of
[5-4-09 ECB] The Wobble Track above continues to show the truncation in the size of the Wobble which began to appear in January of this year. X MAX has peaked early and Y MAX is coming up during the next 60 days. Apparently this Wobble Cycle is short by about four months, compared to most others, and is smaller all in all than the average. The next Wobble MIN will occur in about 3.5 years with a small spiral track similar to the smallest circle which can be seen in the chart above.
[1-19-09 ECB] POLAR MOTION: same - see below
[1-12-09 ECB] POLAR MOTION: - The Spin Axis continues to expand normally and at this moment has passed by Y MIN for this Spiral, which means it is as close to Siberia as it is going to get. Soon it will be heading towards Alaska. Or, more correctly, the Earth's crust will be pushing Alaska towards the North Spin Axis. Other than that, no new news
[8-4-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: - no new news since 7-21, the spiral track of the wobble continues on its progression more or less in a normal manner. One can see even more plainly that the North (-) and South (+) track of the wobble on the X Axis describes a bias of movement which is greater than the horizontal movement (east-west). This bias displays the fact that the Southern Hemisphere of the Earth is slightly heavier than the Northern Hemisphere. The larger the "swing" of the wobble track, the more the bias can be easily observed.
[7-28-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: - no new news since 7-21 [7-21-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: The wobble spiral continues to expand but we can now see is this latest 14 month spiral track that the wobble may be displaying a fairly definite "sidedness" in the spin wobble. From the perspective of Greenwich Meridian, which the 0 line of the X Axis (shown in bold), the Earth appears to bob to the North and South (vertically on the graph) more easily than it bobs to the East and West (horizontally on the graph). This parallels the tendency we noticed very strongly in January 2006, which is shown by the short North-South spike in the center of the spirals. PLEASE NOTE HOWEVER, that this sidedness may be partly an illusion created by a spiral track which is expanding now more rapidly than it has during the prior two years. It may take another two years to resolve whether or not this is an illusion or a real "lean" in the wobble.
[5-19-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Not much new news. Only this: the current track of the North Spin (for the past 14 month) demonstrates a small expansion than is more typical and it also demonstrates an oblong (out of round) shape. It is as if the wobble is a little squashed at roughly its 90 degree graph axis. The slightly small size of the wobble's spiral track is within historical variation but the somewhat oblong or perhaps elliptical shape is difficult to compare with previous three-year wobble expansion phases.
[4-7-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Again, no change from prior weeks. There remains some apparent tendency to truncation of the spiral track on the Y Axis. Movement up and down the X Axis appears slightly easier for the Earth's crust than than movement on the Y Axis. This pattern we have been observing since the wobble "freeze" of January 2005.
[2-18-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: The track now shows some outward expansion as one would expect.
[2-11-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Polar Motion apparently is now deviating once again from a normal track. What has been a smooth outward expansion since March 2006 is now apparently too truncated to be called an expansionary spiral. It is "retarded" and parallels far too closely the spiral track of 14 months ago. It should be showing progressive enlargement, but this is no longer evident. There are two possible explanations. One is that this Seven Year Wobble Cycle will be smaller than normal (which happens frequently). Another possible explanation is that the Wobble is merely showing us that significant drift in the average location of the center of the wobble has been and is still underway, such that the spiral center is now drifting towards the left bottom of the chart (down towards about Longitude West 70-80). This the Wobble has also done before. A third possibility is that both factors are in play. Stay tuned, the Wobble continues to be more dynamic than anyone previously imagined.
[1-28-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: As reported January 27 in the "Pivot Point" Bulletin (see Yahoo Archives), the Earth was apparently at tectonic standstill on Saturday/Sunday (almost 0 seismic activity 4+, ultra-low activity in the range of 2.5-4)) while the Earth's tilted axis orientation (fixed on Polaris) began to recede from the orbital Perihelion point and thus begin the shift of the orientations of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres toward the Sun. Otherwise, no significant change from previous reports. The Spiral Track of Earth's Wobble continues to expand outward in a stable pattern. As can be expected (by looking at the history of the Wobble Track), the Earth's Wobble is currently receiving a boost of energy from the Earth's Perihelion moment with the Sun. Since the Earth is closer to the Sun at this moment, solar gravity is tugging in phase slightly more strongly on the heavy side of the Earth (the Southern Hemisphere). As a result the track of Polar Motion is now clearly showing a marked acceleration in the outward, expansionary movement of its spiral track. This is all normal. The Spin Axis is currently located in the longitude quadrant of the Russian Far East moving rapidly towards Alaska..
NEW CHART RELEASE WHICH PROVES THAT POLAR MOTION PHASES REGULATE EL NINO (and probably the other climate oscillations in the Northern Atlantic and the Indian Oceans): To see the chart Click Here! Composed fresh for the revised edition of the Return of the Phoenix, a new expanded chart shows the track of Earth's Wobble up and down the Greenwich Meridian (called the X Axis of polar motion by geophysicists) for the period 1890-2006. For additional details go to Wobble Almanac. WORLD & REGIONAL WEATHER: Storm Fronts, Hurricanes, El Nino & La Nina, Drought & Fire, Global Warming
ENSO NOW, EL NINO VERY LATE THIS YEAR, MORE LIKELY NEXT YEAR.
La Nina is now well past and the Eastern Pacific may be transitioning
already into the next El Nino. Five of 14 dynamic models which NOAA
monitors predict El Nino emerging by December 09. The models may all be
wrong, but they are all we have. NASA predicts a strong El Nino emerging
about August, Scripps predicts a very mild borderline El Nino emerging
about December 09, the others fall in between the two, the strong
strongest weight for about November, weakly, then growing.
Using simply the MIN and MAX points in the wobble cycle, which
synchronizes well above chance (but no always) with El Nino, I would select
2010 or 2011 as the predominant period of the next El Nino, or even possibly
both years as back to back El Ninos. Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation (PDF)
[9-1-08] GENERAL INTENT: The volume of weather material is beyond my ability to track as I shift my focus more militantly to finish my book projects. I am going to update this section by trimming this section severely.
[9-1-08] TREMENDOUS INSIGHT: The weather chaos and unusual patterns may be primarily generated BY THE ACCELERATION OF THE JET STREAM AND THE ARTIC AIR MASS GYRE. Nobody's noticing it because nobody is looking there.
See http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_hem_loop-12.html
For more, see the NOAA National Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/index.php
These are great charts which lays it all out very well for
LATEST HURRICANE SEASON UPDATE
I have not reviewed 2009 predictions as of May 5, 2009.
Hurricane Sources For Reference: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
Atlantic Storm Tracks & Advisories: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
USN Advisories This Date I use NASA for Atlantic, USN for the remainder of the world
From: http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php Most items in this list are clickable
SUMMARY ASSESSMENTS
The Ocean Climate Regimes (relative to averages) NEW PREDICTION TOOL BY NOAA PEOPLE - THEY ARE GETTING MORE POWERFUL IN THE ART - EVEN IF THEIR PRESENTATION IS STILL A LITTLE TOO OBSCURE FOR GENERAL READERS - MAY BE WORTH A LOOK:
Most likely Atlantic hurricane seasons will not become record-makers again until 2010 or possibly not until higher up the ramp to Solar MAX in 2012. The result will be pretty much pure "Global Warming" syndrome, mightily influenced throughout the Northern Hemisphere by the North Central Pacific Gyre, with occasional peaking of storm intensity by surges in Solar Activity (but Solar Activity looks like it is going to be minor for the next few months).
Click here for complete version of NOAA's latest ENSO Assessment: Weekly Update: Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation (PDF) On Monday the CPC updates in two different formats: a PowerPoint and a PDF presentation. They present the recent trends and change, summarize the current status and and give predictions of conditions in the tropical Pacific related to the El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle for the year ahead.
[5-19-08 ECB] NOAA GRAPH PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT EL NINO: Some 15 different prediction models from various sources around the world are summarized in this graph. El Nino and La Nina are technically now categorized as Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) plus or minus 0.5 degrees C from an averaged historical norm. Two predictors agree with the ECB that El Nino may begin to set in this Summer (from July onwards) and two others agree that El Nino may begin to set in this coming November. Five others suggest that La Nina is still here and will remain virtually as it is now through to the end of 2008. [1-19-09 ECB] Basically, the models in the graph below which predicted La Nina were correct. Though the stats are borderline around -0.5 C for the latest sea surface temperatures on the Pacific Equator, NOAA declares this a La Nina as of December 09. Current graphs, see the NOAA PDF link above, suggest La Nina through Spring 09 will continue to pound the PNW and make for a cold late Spring in the Mountains and the Mid West.
[5-04-09] RE: Chart below - get the latest PDF cited above. The latest charts have changed somewhat and more strongly suggest that ENSO will be short lived for only this year, with El Nino possibly appearing in December 09.
source: NOAA National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 April 2008).
For More Information On Dynamics and Predictions Of The Ocean Climate Regimes & El Nino / La Nina: GO TO THE WEATHER/CLIMATE ALMANAC
THE NEXT EL
NINO:
The year 2009 is an X MAX year in the Wobble
and El
Nino almost never occurs during a year in which the size of the wobble
spiral is at maximum size. Accordingly El Nino is now likely to occur
in 2010, 2011, or in 2012, with probably the greatest odds for 2010-2011. GLOBAL WARMING SYNDROME: Swamped by La Nina. The Arctic suddenly reversed its extreme melt and is now headed to extreme freeze. The Global Warming trend will disappear for 2009 as it did in the later part of 2008. Global Cooling may appear in the statistics, but this will last only until the next El Nino or the rise of major Solar Activity from Solar Cycle #24. Then the Carbon Cap Quacks will be back in force with the Global Warming Boogieman. If Tectonic Trends continue upward, Global Warming Syndrome is sure to reappear, but it is going to be on vacation for at least one year, perhaps two or three.
SOURCE: NOAA The key to dynamic change is the bottom graph which displays the "out of average" readings. This allows us to quickly spot the extremes which are forming up in the various oceanic climate regimes. It is a lot cheaper and easier than using supercomputers.
Seasonal Color Map Graphs - Predict Rain and Temperatures For North America For The Year Ahead – Science Is Finally Catching Up With Farmer’s Almanac. Go here to get updated on the likely rain and temperature forecast. This one currently on the web is essentially based on a La Nina forecast.
GEOTECTONIC ACTIVITY: Volcanoes, Shape Shifting, Earthquakes Links to: ALMANAC | GEOTECTONIC GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR
EARTHQUAKE TRENDS & THE CHANGE IN THE EARTH Links to: ALMANAC | QUAKE GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR
Click here to
see the
latest graphs of the
Global Quake Trend
EARTHQUAKES CURRENT:
[5-4-09 ECB] Seismic activity has been quite mild for all Class 4 quakes during this past week. We are in a near quiet moment between syzygies. Quakes are running one half to one third average frequency yesterday and today. Following the 6.1 quake on western side of Guatamala, a 4.1 quake struck close on the shore of Northern California and a 5.3 struck in Venezuela along the Carib Plate edge.
May 4, 2009, IRIS Chart Class 4+
CLICK ON IMAGES FOR EXPANDED VIEW; red indicates quakes 4+ during the previous 24 hours, orange during previous day, yellow during the previous two weeks, violet during the past 15 years
Best to go here below and click for the latest dynamic page with explanations of the symbols and large displays of regions of the Earth (these are "at the moment" charts): http://www.iris.edu/seismon/ Last
Seven Days - for earthquakes worldwide magnitude 4.0 plus and
The East Pacific Rift is known to be separating at a faster rate than any other zone but generally the rifting produces only small quakes, under Class 3. Thus they do not show up on anyone's charts because no one is paying any attention to such small quakes. The same is true of all of the Great Rift, but the Atlantic portion also produces many more Class 4+ quakes during the course of any given year than the other rift zones. No one seems to know why.
CONCERNING DATABASE FILES
OF QUAKE CATALOGS:
SHAPESHIFTING: ACTIVITY LAST YEAR WAS VERY HIGH. Shape-shifter
quakes indicate the spreading of the Rift Valley, the creation of new crust
through magma dikes which fills in the cracks of the Great Rift, and hence
the inevitable forcing of the Earth’s crust to change its shape to adjust for
the new crust. Most subduction zone
quakes (such as in the Pacific Rim of Fire) probably occur as a consequence of
the shape-shifting of the Earth.
M 5+ earthquakes, past 7 days
RSS 2.0
CAP
Other Datafeeds On Quakes: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/
TECTONIC MOTION QUAKE FORECAST: Occasionally the chart information is supplemented with data from Earth Sensitives, who include some humans and animals. For Earth Sensitive information, go to PamWiseman.com For other Syzygy-type forecasts and a portal to other valuable approaches, see Syzygyjob.com
ECB EARTHQUAKE FORECAST: as of 1-19-09 Great Quakes Class 7+ on average occur about every three weeks, Class 6+ occur on average every other day, hence major destructive quakes are always possible somewhere in the world, especially more often than not near the extreme moments in the lunar cycles. The relatively mild quake profiles for December and January suggest that the Tectonic Activity trends have leveled off. This condition should continue through much of 2009, probably no Class 8+ quakes, perhaps lower than average (of the last year) for all Class 4+.
Links to: ALMANAC | VOLCANO GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR
Krakatau In
Vigorous Eruption November, 2007
For Some New Volcano Reports
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