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CRITICAL ALERTS
 [May 4, 2009 ECB; MWM] "Current Week's Summary"

UPDATE TO OVER-RIDING CONDITIONS

U.S. ECONOMY IN FREE FALL

From Robert F. Dieli, Ph.D. His site is No Spin Forecast

Dieli:  “An explanation about why the decline in imports is helping GDP growth. As you know, imports are subtracted from GDP. Because imports are declining in absolute terms, you get a positive effect from a negative negative. Just to be clear as to what this chart is telling us: the drop in imports contributed 6.05 percentage points to the GDP growth rate.

What this means is that without the contribution from imports, GDP declined at 12.15% annual rate in Q1. In other words, all of the domestic activity was, as the employment numbers suggested, in free fall! Now, this has some important implications for the profile of growth going forward. When imports stop dropping, and they will, the sign on this term will go back to its normal negative, and when it does, it will expose the true growth rate of the domestic economy. We had best hope that GPDI has gotten back on track by the time the positive effect of negative import growth wears off.”

MWM:  This is likely to level off and even show a decrease in the fall for the second and third quarters as a result of the huge amount of Team Obama Federal spending which is still gearing up. If so, the decline will resurface, possibly as early as during the fourth quarter of 2009, perhaps in 2009.  A mind-numbing stagflation is likely to accompany it.  I agree now completely with the gold dealers, for the first time in a decade, now is a good time to hedge with gold.  Don't buy contracts, futures, papers, or stocks in gold, buy gold directly and keep it out of banks and bullion storage depots.

COSMIC FACTORS:  

Sunspot Count -  The Sun has been inactive once again for most of the past week with a count of ZIP on a Flux of about 69. There is a large coronal hole in the Solar atmosphere bisecting the solar equator and slashing across much of the disk. The solar atmosphere, it seems, is thinning substantially.  But both NASA and SIDC in Brussels report virtually no solar activity.  The Planetary A Magnetic Index (upper atmosphere field strength) has fluctuated in the range of about 3-10 for the past several months and is now at about 5 (blue line on the graph above). Alaska's Fluxgate Monitor (U. of A.)  shows virtually no disturbances on the "surface" on the "solar sea" through which the Earth sails.  NASA expects similar during  the next few days from,  predicting no more than up to a 5% possibility of severe magnetic disturbances in the high latitudes. (For NASA 10 = 0). SIDC in Brussels feels about the same.   Planetary alignments in May and June should begin to increase Solar Activity during the next week.  How big and how much Solar Activity is likely to cast influence on the Earth's atmosphere, weather, and climate regimes is impossible to be completely certain about but the chance of  significant solar activity and influence is not great despite many strong alignments of the inner planets.  For more details on current sun go here.   For Daily Sun, go to Spaceweather.    See Planetary Alignments for longer range forecast. 

MAY - JUNE 2009 PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS: Mercury has just passed Saturn (which probably produced the small two day surge of Sunspots a few days ago. Next is a very rapid series of alignments in three waves. First Mercury will fly past all the remaining planets during the next 60 days, beginning with an alignment with Earth on May 15. Then Venus will pass by them. Hauling by them more slowly, the Earth will progressively align with the outer planets, the last one being Mars. Since Mars is not that much slower than Earth, the Earth will not catch with Mars so those two can align until next year. May 25, 2009 - Mercury Twines Earth and Venus.
This is my pick of the strongest attractor during May. This may produce a surge in sunspot activity, the strongest in a year and a half, which comes in three peaks. The first beginning about May 10 for the Mercury | Earth alignment, the second about May 20 for this "twine moment", and the third about June 13 for the Mercury | Venus alignment. This final wave may be the greatest yet.  In June, the obvious attractor is for June 13, 2009 - Four Planet Alignment - Mercury | Venus | Jupiter ~ Neptune. This begins to form up  about on June 8, 2009  The strongest moment of this alignment probably is close to June 13, 2009.  This should raise up another spike of solar activity sometime during the first week of June.

IF, and that is still a big IF, these alignments produce surges in Solar Activity, expect the surges about a week prior to the alignment dates and expect influences on Oceanic Storm Fronts to begin from 12 hours to 48 hours later.  Since the solar surges are likely to remain small, the influence on weather and human emotional functioning during this coming round may be undetectable.
 

 ATMOSPHERICS:  ENSO or EL NINO?

La Nina is now well past and the Eastern Pacific may be transitioning already into the next El Nino. Five of 14 dynamic models which NOAA monitors predict El Nino emerging by December 09. The models may all be wrong, but they are all we have. NASA predicts a strong El Nino emerging about August, Scripps predicts a very mild borderline El Nino emerging about December 09, the others fall in between the two, the strong strongest weight for about November, weakly, then growing.

Could be. Keep in mind that the majority of the models predict ENSO.

Using simply the MIN and MAX points in the wobble cycle, which synchronizes well above chance (but no always) with El Nino, I would select 2010 or 2011 as the predominant period of the next El Nino, or even possibly both years as back to back El Ninos.

From previous use of the Scripps model, I am going with Scripps. At the moment their forecast connects very closely with the Wobble Cycle. They are located in California and California gains and loses immensely from the El Nino cycle, perhaps more than other states, thus they are highly attentive to what may be happening in the cycle. Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation (PDF)

For the next ten days of  NOAA weather predictions on up to three months, go to Climate Center Weather Maps. 

 GEOPHYSICAL FACTORS:     No significant change in the average track of the Spin Axis.  The wobble spiral continues to show a contraction, thus most like it has passed its maximum SPIRAL size on the X Axis (X MAX of its seven year cycle) during 2009 .  In about three years we will be in the Wobble MIN phase.  See Polar Motion for additional information.    

LUNAR SYZYGY:  The next Full Moon is May 9. This Full Moon Syzygy more or less begins about May 7. It extends through to about May 13 because of the spread in time until the next Extreme Southern Declination, which follows on May 11. This Syzygy mainly occurs near Apogee which follows on May 14.  Because this Syzygy keeps the Moon spaced relatively further from the Earth than its average distance, the vector influences in this syzygy will not be as strong as they typically are. Tectonic activity is not likely to be notable during this period, from now through nearly the following New Moon at close to the end of May.  May 22-29 (the New Moon Syzygy following) is likely to be far more tectonically active.

Declinations for the remainder of the year are constantly shrinking (by a very small fractional part of a degree every month) and it will take nearly another nine years for the Declination to reach its MIN size.  Perigee, however, varies greatly each year.  June and July Perigees will be closer than the last one but they will again shy away from the Earth  in August/September/October.  In November they will begin to move closer again and December/January Perigees will once again be much closer to the Earth than at any time during 2009, with the exception of January/February.  As it was this year, the next strongest vectors on the Earth from Perigee will fall in January/February 2010.  Look for tectonic activity in the Earth to roughly follow this schedule.  Not always, but generally so.  See The Lunar Cycle  for more details. 

 QUAKES: Seismic activity has been quite mild for all Class 4 quakes during this past week.  We are in a near quiet moment between syzygies. Quakes are running one half to one third average frequency yesterday and today. Following the 6.1 quake on western side of Guatamala, a 4.1 quake struck close on the shore of Northern California and a 5.3 struck in Venezuela along the Carib Plate edge.   For more on quakes go to Earthquakes. 

VOLCANISM:   The IVRC Active Eruption List has expanded to 45 as of today. It includes all eruptive volcanoes this year, regardless of whether or not they are still active, thus the list no longer attempts to cull out brief eruptive episodes.  This makes comparison with previous years much more difficult and I have not yet figured out a strategy.  The Alert List is now up to 75 and it looks like it will equal or exceed last year's.   Pretty much the picture is the same as it has been for the past few years. Kilauea is still oozing lava as it has for over twenty years now, the two to three dozen continuous erupters are still erupting with ash, occasional lava, and other typical forms of eruption.  Kamchatka Peninsula and the Carib Plate, antipodes to each other on either side of the spreading Great Rift of the Eastern Pacific, are the current champion zones for volcanic growth, clearly revealing which Rift is spreading the most and which subduction zones are being compressed the most.

Doubtless, the volcano season for 2009 is now near its peak but it can easily expand by another 10% before activity begins to dampen during the Summer months.  Volcanism this year is probably on a near par with last year, and both years have seen a leveling off from the trend of fast growth over prior years.  Click here for more details on this Volcano Season. 

EARTH CHANGES STANDING SUMMARY as of May 09 -   In accordance with the Cosmic Frame, tectonic activity did in fact diminish during the first part of 2009 as predicted here.  The next phase of synchronicities between the lunar and terrestrial orbits suggest a very slow and mild increase in activity for a few months, a slow plateau or dip in early Fall, and then another major surge during the last three months of the year, which could get relatively brisk in December 2009 and January 2010.  Keep in mind that the Earth's crust is complex, anything can and sometimes does happen at any time, and thus no accurate predictions can be made consistently.  The Earth Changes Global Warming scenario is more difficult to predict and the weather effects are more chaotic at this time.  Solar input is very low this year, about the same as last year, hence Greenhouse Gas effect is zip, if not negative, accordingly Global Warming and all extreme weather patterns are being driven this year almost exclusively by the warming of the world ocean which now appears to have slowed as well.  Human conditions remain confused and contrarian, war and peace trends are unclear but clearly a major push is being made to instigate reasons for imperial expansion.  The target of course is Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan.  Oil, nukes, and drugs, all in large quantities, will make for great intrigue to hold the fascination of the sociopaths and psychopaths who are ascendant in the imperial apparatus centered in the CIA/Pentagon/London zones.  Economic conditions continue to disintegrate, most prognosticators are now Bearish on most economic issues, worldwide economic collapse is occurring around the Earth.   A deeper descent into the Rabbit's Black Hole is widely expected.  Only China is weathering the storm fairly well by most accounts and it is currently off-loading its dollar reserves as rapidly as it can by buying up distressed companies and resources around the Earth.  In the Middle East, the lunacy of the Ziono-crazies who control Israel continues to deepen into the darkest possible psychotic fantasies of mass violence.  Removal of these criminal terrorists from power is the first step to making peace.  Unfortunately the Israeli public is unable to witness and act out the simple existential truths of this age, others are condemned to do the deed.

GEO-ECONOMIC FLUX - -  The sinking continues.  The Mass Media continues to use numbers which have no credibility in the best tradition of telling the big lie often enough it becomes the only lie to use. Unemployment is close to 15-18%, nobody knows for sure because of the depth of professional dishonesty in this culture. Three quarters of shrinkage in the GDP measure of our total economy, which is now estimated to be shrinking at the rate of 12% per year (after all import sales are eliminated).   The rate will level off as a result of massive new rounds of government stimulus spending but it will get worse by the end of the year, most of the auto plants now closing will never open again.  The banksters have nearly completed the process of breaking the unions and pension funds.  In brief, the Team Obama's Helicopters will drop enough bales of money to feed the cattle and cause another four months to six months of what "appears" to be economic growth (people will spend more money on China goods) but the Obama program will clearly be seen to fail by the end of the year or early in 2010 (except in China, which will love it).  There will be a few bright notes and growth areas, but in aggregate the failures will evoke the next great round of crisis and confusion.  2009, then, float and paddle, 2010, the rapids appear for the next plunge.  Along with the drops will  come a brisk wave of inflation....stagflation as it was called in a previous generation.  Click on header for more commentary. 

GEOPOLITICAL FLUX - -  

PROGNOSIS ON AMERICAN POLITICS:  As Obama suggested, time for hope, but place little hope in Congress, the Democrats, nor the Obama administration for economic progress.  With most of their approach they will achieve little other than to paddle to stay afloat until the next plunge in 2010. Luckily, they will spread enough money to help boost alternative energy. Create certainty, go get solar and hydrogen fuel technology to dissolve the power of the corporations and bankers.   Every solar BTU kicks Rockefeller butt.  By the end of 2010, we are very likely to see the Democrats self-destruct in a variety of ways.  The Republicans will never recover from their raping by the Bush/Zionazi War-Profiteering Crime Families, the Democrats likely will not recover from their sycophancy of the R&R Caballeros' Globalist agenda.  New party movements and independents will lead increasingly powerful political upsets and destroy the Democrat's fragile coalition, which will be blindsided by a number of fundamental issues which the power elite is completely ignoring.  American politics by 2012 will be completely unpredictable unless Obama shakes off the dead hands of the Clinton-Bush apparatchik and learns how to build his own coalition among a strong progressive base.

SPIRITUAL FLUX  - - 

On the horizon, still too dim to be clearly perceived by most, forces in the Spirit Realm are pushing aggressively for more rapid transmutation of conditions and actions.   Rather suddenly, in some cases, the masses and classes will realize with a start that the world has changed dramatically, in some cases never was what we thought it was, the old concepts about as useful as the clothes we wore in our school days.

As previously reported, the power of the Blue Star Kachina continues to grow as a major ingress of higher plane energy expands for those seeking it.  Look for a small blue diamond in the inner most recesses of your mind's eye.  Reach deeply inside your experience of the now.  Seek for the "feeling" of an energy or vibration within your head.  REMEMBER REMEMBER REMEMBER.  Awaken to the higher energy.  Now is truly the time to build an internal link to consciousness of this energy.  As this link strengthens, the internal power of lucid peace will grow, hopefully strongly enough to surmount the highly charged emotional astral chaos of the next Solar MAX, which most likely will be the most chaotic period of human existence in several decades, quite possibly for several centuries.

CHECK OUT THE World Clock for the latest earth-scale human statistics.

For Pure Fun:  Check out your Your Chinese Destiny Year

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