Monitoring The Changes In The Earth
January 12, 2009
Earth's Wobble - Polar Motion - True Polar Wander - La Nina - El Nino - Ocean Climate Regimes - North Atlantic Oscillation - North Pacific Gyre - Pacific Equator - World Weather - Earthquakes - Volcanism - Hurricanes - Global Warming Syndrome Earthquakes Volcanoes Drought Fire Tectonic Shape-shifting Syzygy Predictions
Mouse arrow cursor points toward the latest location of Spin Axis
Mouse arrow cursor points toward the latest location of Spin Axis
Image is from WobbleTracker software, drawn by MWM
Graph Scale is set to 1.0 arcseconds, Grid Size =
0.05 arcseconds Time Domain as shown in upper left hand corner .
Time Domain as shown in upper left hand corner
This chart shows the location of the North Spin
Axis relative to the “map coordinates” which were established at the end of
the 19th century. A drift
of over 50 feet since 1900 in the circular track of
[1-12-09 ECB] POLAR MOTION: - The Spin Axis continues to expand normally and at this moment has passed by Y MIN for this Spiral, which means it is as close to Siberia as it is going to get. Soon it will be heading towards Alaska. Or, more correctly, the Earth's crust will be pushing Alaska towards the North Spin Axis. Other than that, no new news
[8-4-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: - no new news since 7-21, the spiral track of the wobble continues on its progression more or less in a normal manner. One can see even more plainly that the North (-) and South (+) track of the wobble on the X Axis describes a bias of movement which is greater than the horizontal movement (east-west). This bias displays the fact that the Southern Hemisphere of the Earth is slightly heavier than the Northern Hemisphere. The larger the "swing" of the wobble track, the more the bias can be easily observed.
[7-28-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: - no new news since 7-21
[7-21-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: The wobble spiral continues to expand but we can now see is this latest 14 month spiral track that the wobble may be displaying a fairly definite "sidedness" in the spin wobble. From the perspective of Greenwich Meridian, which the 0 line of the X Axis (shown in bold), the Earth appears to bob to the North and South (vertically on the graph) more easily than it bobs to the East and West (horizontally on the graph). This parallels the tendency we noticed very strongly in January 2006, which is shown by the short North-South spike in the center of the spirals. PLEASE NOTE HOWEVER, that this sidedness may be partly an illusion created by a spiral track which is expanding now more rapidly than it has during the prior two years. It may take another two years to resolve whether or not this is an illusion or a real "lean" in the wobble.
[5-19-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Not much new news. Only this: the current track of the North Spin (for the past 14 month) demonstrates a small expansion than is more typical and it also demonstrates an oblong (out of round) shape. It is as if the wobble is a little squashed at roughly its 90 degree graph axis. The slightly small size of the wobble's spiral track is within historical variation but the somewhat oblong or perhaps elliptical shape is difficult to compare with previous three-year wobble expansion phases.
[4-7-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Again, no change from prior weeks. There remains some apparent tendency to truncation of the spiral track on the Y Axis. Movement up and down the X Axis appears slightly easier for the Earth's crust than than movement on the Y Axis. This pattern we have been observing since the wobble "freeze" of January 2005.
[2-18-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: The track now shows some outward expansion as one would expect.
[2-11-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Polar Motion apparently is now deviating once again from a normal track. What has been a smooth outward expansion since March 2006 is now apparently too truncated to be called an expansionary spiral. It is "retarded" and parallels far too closely the spiral track of 14 months ago. It should be showing progressive enlargement, but this is no longer evident. There are two possible explanations. One is that this Seven Year Wobble Cycle will be smaller than normal (which happens frequently). Another possible explanation is that the Wobble is merely showing us that significant drift in the average location of the center of the wobble has been and is still underway, such that the spiral center is now drifting towards the left bottom of the chart (down towards about Longitude West 70-80). This the Wobble has also done before. A third possibility is that both factors are in play. Stay tuned, the Wobble continues to be more dynamic than anyone previously imagined.
[1-28-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: As reported January 27 in the "Pivot Point" Bulletin (see Yahoo Archives), the Earth was apparently at tectonic standstill on Saturday/Sunday (almost 0 seismic activity 4+, ultra-low activity in the range of 2.5-4)) while the Earth's tilted axis orientation (fixed on Polaris) began to recede from the orbital Perihelion point and thus begin the shift of the orientations of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres toward the Sun. Otherwise, no significant change from previous reports. The Spiral Track of Earth's Wobble continues to expand outward in a stable pattern. As can be expected (by looking at the history of the Wobble Track), the Earth's Wobble is currently receiving a boost of energy from the Earth's Perihelion moment with the Sun. Since the Earth is closer to the Sun at this moment, solar gravity is tugging in phase slightly more strongly on the heavy side of the Earth (the Southern Hemisphere). As a result the track of Polar Motion is now clearly showing a marked acceleration in the outward, expansionary movement of its spiral track. This is all normal. The Spin Axis is currently located in the longitude quadrant of the Russian Far East moving rapidly towards Alaska..
NEW CHART RELEASE WHICH PROVES THAT POLAR MOTION PHASES REGULATE EL NINO (and probably the other climate oscillations in the Northern Atlantic and the Indian Oceans): To see the chart Click Here! Composed fresh for the revised edition of the Return of the Phoenix, a new expanded chart shows the track of Earth's Wobble up and down the Greenwich Meridian (called the X Axis of polar motion by geophysicists) for the period 1890-2006. For additional details go to Wobble Almanac.
[9-1-08] GENERAL INTENT: The volume of weather material is beyond my ability to track as I shift my focus more militantly to finish my book projects. I am going to update this section by trimming this section severely.
[9-1-08] TREMENDOUS INSIGHT: The weather chaos and unusual patterns may be primarily generated BY THE ACCELERATION OF THE JET STREAM AND THE ARTIC AIR MASS GYRE. Nobody's noticing it because nobody is looking there.
LATEST HURRICANE SEASON UPDATE
It crashed and burned, the season did, like 2007. What's up? Solar MIN. Such storms simply are not produced very well during the eleven year lull in the Solar Sunspot Cycle. Duh.
Hurricane Sources For Reference:
Atlantic Storm Tracks & Advisories: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
USN Advisories This Date
I use NASA for Atlantic, USN for the remainder of the world
Most items in this list are clickable
[12-15-08] El Nino and La Nina are still not in evidence. But...bbbrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. It's cold, even here in Arizona Sonoran Desert. This is technically called an ENSO neutral phase year. Some also are describing this as a MIN period in the Pacific Ocean Oscillation. Meaning, as can now be seen in sea surface temperature charts, nearly all of the Pacific Ocean is a little cooler than the past five year average. All surface waters in the Northern Hemisphere are progressively losing their anomalous heat and becoming statistically "average". What this means is ITS COLD THIS WINTER, and global warming has some serious reality issues. Tear up the professional weather predictions for any time frame greater than 10 days, most of them have been wrong for this year and the accuracy is not going to improve. For the next ten days of NOAA weather predictions, go to Climate Center Weather Maps. As can be seen at this site, weather forecasts for the entire season ahead are now becoming routine but for greater than ten days they are likely not worth a tinker's diddle. Expect cold, snow, rain, and slow storms, widely for the next 30 days, pretty much the weather of now and the past two weeks. Eurasia is a little bit different call, the North Atlantic Oscillation is in a MAX warm phase, centered around Newfoundland, appears stable, and thus whatever your weather is, all anomalous to the past, it will also remain in place for the next 30 days at least.
Old Farmer's Almanac likely expects a cold Winter. I expect chaotic patterns because of the lack of Solar entrainment.
For more, see the NOAA National Climate Prediction Center
These are great charts which lays it all out very well for
SUMMARY ASSESSMENTS as of January 12 2008
FOR THIS YEAR, THE EXTREMES IN CYCLONES, TORNADOES, AND FLOODS PLAINLY AND ABSOLUTELY ARE NOT A RESULT OF STIMULUS FROM THE SUN NOR NATURAL NOR HUMAN-CAUSED CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. This can only by Global Warming Syndrome, showing us what the new weather "normal" is becoming as the Earth's oceans continue to gradually warm.
The Ocean Climate Regimes (relative to averages)
NEW PREDICTION TOOL BY NOAA PEOPLE - THEY ARE GETTING MORE POWERFUL IN THE ART - EVEN IF THEIR PRESENTATION IS STILL A LITTLE TOO OBSCURE FOR GENERAL READERS - MAY BE WORTH A LOOK:
Most likely Atlantic hurricane seasons will not become record-makers again until 2010 or possibly not until higher up the ramp to Solar MAX in 2012. The result will be pretty much pure "Global Warming" syndrome, mightily influenced throughout the Northern Hemisphere by the North Central Pacific Gyre, with occasional peaking of storm intensity by surges in Solar Activity (but Solar Activity looks like it is going to be minor for the next few months).
Click here for complete version of NOAA's latest ENSO Assessment: Weekly Update: On Monday the CPC updates in two different formats: a PowerPoint and a PDF presentation. They present the recent trends and change, summaryize the current status and and give predictions of conditions in the tropical Pacific related to the El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle for the year ahead.
[5-19-08 ECB] NOAA GRAPH PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT EL NINO: Some 15 different prediction models from various sources around the world are summarized in this graph. El Nino and La Nina are technically now categorized as Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) plus or minus 0.5 degrees C from an averaged historical norm. Two predictors agree with the ECB that El Nino may begin to set in this Summer (from July onwards) and two others agree that El Nino may begin to set in this coming November. Five others suggest that La Nina is still here and will remain virtually as it is now through to the end of 2008.
Click on image for larger, clearer view
Click on image for larger, clearer view
source: NOAA National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 April 2008).
For More Information On Dynamics and Predictions Of The Ocean Climate Regimes & El Nino / La Nina: GO TO THE WEATHER/CLIMATE ALMANAC
LIKELY THIS IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN IN 2008 OR 2009:
Most likely a major factor in the formation of the next El Nino is the motion of the Pacific Ocean bottom. An acceleration of rifting (spreading of the Earth's crust) in the East Pacific Rise portion of the Great Rift which snakes around the Earth at the bottoms of the oceans has been underway during the first half of 2008. This likely continues, as evidenced by increased volcanism in the Aleutians and the southern tip of South America. The rifting is likely releasing far more heat into the bottom of the East Pacific than normal and this may be the "gating" phase which will produce the next El Nino, which is likely to emerge into visibility during the latter part of 2008 and last through the first half of 2009. Ironically, then, the Great Quakes in Japan and China during May and June may be heralds of record-breaking El Nino year soon to come.
The problem with that projection, which was
made in early 2008, is that 2009 is an X MAX year in the Wobble. El
Nino almost never occurs during a year in which the size of the wobble
spiral is at maximum size. Accordingly El Nino is now more likely to occur
in 2010, not 2009.
GLOBAL WARMING SYNDROME: Far more probable than not, the first half of 2007 has brought a serious surge of heat through the Great Rifts in the bottom of the oceans. It is likely that this is still continuing and it may continue throughout 2008. The telling sign is the spurt of Great Rift quakes which come and go in waves. These all indicate movements which marine geologists are nearly certain indicate extensive magma dikes and lava flows in or very close to the Great Rift Valleys. This activity during the first half of 2007 likely will feed a new round of heat into the oceanic climate system during the next 36 months and thus over-all Global Warming will continue to surge upwards. This pattern, as of January 08, may still be underway. As of May, 2008, it is evident that this activity has accelerated during the first several months of 2008.
The increased heat energy in the climate system along the broad middle of the Earth ( from the tropics which supplies the juice which powers the air conditioner of your weather) is causing the flow of air more rapidly in greater volumes into the north and south out of the Equatorial zone. Warm air travels further to the North (or South) and pushes increased cold air to flow out of the polar zones (your cooling coils). The more Global Warming, the more intense and stormy will be both Winter and Summer, the Winter cooler, the Summer hotter, with more power in all storms. The primary consistent barometer of all of this: the melting of the Arctic Ice.
The key to dynamic change is the bottom graph which displays the "out of average" readings. This allows us to quickly spot the extremes which are forming up in the various oceanic climate regimes. It is a lot cheaper and easier than using supercomputers.
Seasonal Color Map Graphs - Predict Rain and Temperatures For North America For The Year Ahead – Science Is Finally Catching Up With Farmer’s Almanac. Go here to get updated on the likely rain and temperature forecast. This one currently on the web is essentially based on a La Nina forecast.
Al, you there? Here is the primary signal of the tectonic motion
which is creating Global Warming.
Al, you there? Here is the primary signal of the tectonic motion which is creating Global Warming.
Click here to
latest graphs of the
Global Quake Trend
[1-12-09 ECB] The recently passed Quadruple Whammy Full Moon Syzygy produced a noticeably greater surge than the December Full Moon which produced at least two Class 7 quakes and several Class 6 quakes.. Activity was widely dispersed, the greatest destruction was in the South Seas where the Class Sevens struck in virtually the same place. Destruction also hit Costa Rica with a 6.5 magnitude quake near the Capital of San Jose. World frequency Class 4+ fell way below average today to end the surge.
January 12, 2009, IRIS Chart Class 4+
CLICK ON IMAGES FOR EXPANDED VIEW; red indicates quakes 4+ during the previous 24 hours, orange during previous day, yellow during the previous two weeks, violet during the past 15 years
SEISMIC MONITOR BY IRIS
SEISMIC MONITOR BY IRIS
Best to go here below and click for the latest dynamic page with explanations of the symbols and large displays of regions of the Earth (these are "at the moment" charts): http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
Seven Days - for earthquakes worldwide magnitude 4.0 plus and
The East Pacific Rift is known to be separating at a faster rate than any other zone but generally the rifting produces only small quakes, under Class 3. Thus they do not show up on anyone's charts because no one is paying any attention to such small quakes. The same is true of all of the Great Rift, but the Atlantic portion also produces many more Class 4+ quakes during the course of any given year than the other rift zones. No one seems to know why.
CONCERNING DATABASE FILES
OF QUAKE CATALOGS:
SHAPESHIFTING: ACTIVITY LAST YEAR WAS VERY HIGH.
quakes indicate the spreading of the Rift Valley, the creation of new crust
through magma dikes which fills in the cracks of the Great Rift, and hence
the inevitable forcing of the Earth’s crust to change its shape to adjust for
the new crust. Most subduction zone
quakes (such as in the Pacific Rim of Fire) probably occur as a consequence of
the shape-shifting of the Earth. The outlines of the tectonic plates and the Great Rift can be be seen
in the violet color in this chart above. For a c
The outlines of the tectonic plates and the Great Rift can be be seen in the violet color in this chart above. For a chart of Earth’s Tectonic Plates, go to: http://www.iris.edu/seismon/html/plates.html
M 5+ earthquakes, past 7 days
Other Datafeeds On Quakes:
TECTONIC MOTION QUAKE FORECAST:
Occasionally the chart information is supplemented with data from Earth Sensitives, who include some humans and animals. For Earth Sensitive information, go to PamWiseman.com For other Syzygy-type forecasts and a portal to other valuable approaches, see Syzygyjob.com
ECB EARTHQUAKE FORECAST: as of 12-8-08
Great Quakes Class 7+ on average occur about every three weeks, Class 6+ occur on average every other day, hence major destructive quakes are always possible somewhere in the world, especially more often than not near the extreme moments in the lunar cycles. When the Lunar Cycles synchronize once again for Full Moon Syzygies of December and January, much greater activity than average will occur. December 2008 most likely will be the deadliest month, esp. December 12-14. -- WRONG.
Vigorous Eruption November, 2007
For Some New Volcano Reports