Visible Sun Of January 12, 2009:  Credit: SOHO/MDI

[1-12-09 ECB]  The Sun responded to the alignment of Mercury | Venus the past three days with a three day rise in the Sunspot Count to 20 January 11 on a falling flux of 70.    There is a coronal hole in the Northwestern Hemisphere of the Sun's atmosphere and Alvestad/NASA predict solar wind from it will strike the Earth about January 14 to 18.  The Planetary A Magnetic Index (upper atmosphere field strength) has fluctuated in the range of about 3-10 for the past month and a half and is now at about 3 (blue line on the graph above). Alaska's Fluxgate Monitor (U. of A.)  shows nearly a glass "surface" on the "solar sea" through which the Earth sails..  NASA expects very little of anything for the next few days. The Mercury | Earth planetary alignment on January 19 likely will produce a rise similar to the current rise and it could even surprise us. In the mean time, Solar Activity is likely to cast little influence on the Earth's atmosphere, weather, and climate regimes.  See Planetary Alignments for longer range forecast.

 

DAILY REPORT FROM SIDC, BRUSSELS:  " PRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Sun Jan 11 2009, 1223 UT
Solar activity is expected to be mostly quiet during the next 48 hours, with a small risk of C-class flare activity from NOAA AR 1010. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet for the next 48 hours. "

See SIDC HOME PAGE for more details.

 

[1-12-09 ECB]  NASA reports no Sunspots on the far side of the Sun.   [Holographic image credit: SOHO/MDI] 

 

[1-12-09 ECB]  Quick Solar Activity Forecast From Planetary Alignments:   We are now beginning to move on the up-ramp of Solar Activity Cycle 24.  During 2009 we will see a slow ramp up. The next three years most likely will bring a steady progressive climb in Solar Activity.  Sometime in 2012-2015 average monthly sunspots will peak above 100, which will be close to 100 times as much daily activity as we have experienced during 2008. Daily activity will occasionally exceed 400, even rarely 500.  In the meantime we are clearly still very much in Solar Min and accordingly you must ascribe the extremes in weather and climate patterns at this time to the emerging global warming  syndrome (OR IS IT COOLING?). Don't expect much activity from the sun during the next six months which is a very very good thing.  Human wars generally do not commence during the solar min phase.  They generally begin to roll as the solar cycle reaches maximum intensity.  The next intense peak period will begin approximately 2012-2014.

 

Click here for NOAA Sunspot Table For Past 30 Days

[1-12-09 ECB] NASA predicts a 1%  probability of solar flares (X to M, respectively) during the next 48 hours.  NASA also predicts there is only a 1% to 5% probability of major magnetic disturbances in the high latitudes during the next 48 hours, not a very significant chance and in fact this is the lowest probability level that I have seen NASA use.  Pix Credit: NOAA

 

 

MAGNETIC DISTURBANCES
(As Shown By Fluxgate Monitor at the University of Alaska )

[1-12-09 ECB]  After some minor (very) fluctuations yesterday, University of Alaska's Fluxgate Monitor is showing nearly a glass sea surface in the magnetic ocean. (Always keep in mind that even during a Solar Min period, intense X class flares and CME's occasionally occur and produce intense magnetic storms in the atmosphere.)

CLICK ON GRAPH FOR EXPANDED VIEW

 

 

[10-20-08 ECB]  PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS AS OF THIS DATE ABOUT SS #24:

• Solar Cycle 24 probably has begun.  Statistical inference most likely will confirm this in November.
   

• Solar Cycle 23 is significantly longer than the past three previous cycles, but NOT out of overall statistical norms.
   

• Solar Cycle 24 may be another relatively small Solar Cycle; based on review of 300 years of graphs the approximate size of the next cycle is likely to be about the size of Solar Cycle 23 or perhaps a little smaller. It may also be another cycle which is slow to rise to its peak and then slow to reach the next Solar MIN. However, there are many ways to interpret historical solar cycles, the only way we can be entirely certain is in retrospect.  Net Solar Activity gives the distinct appearance of large cycles induced by the "cosmic frame" which both interfere (repress) and energize (augment) Solar Activity cycles.  Trends appear and then disappear, producing in the final analysis a history which contains some chaos  Thus there is also the possibility that Solar Cycle 24 could be larger than the previous cycle, enough to augment from above the global warming syndrome and keep the natives on Earth jumping up and down in confusion..

[1-12-09 ECB]  IMPORTANT CONCLUSION AS OF THIS DATE ABOUT SS #24:

• A longer, slower, smaller Cycle 24 (less overall solar activity) seems at this juncture more likely than a large one. The December sunspot average clearly diverged on the low side from even the "lowball" predictions of solar scientists.  As far, solar activity during the last 24 months has consistently been smaller and slower than all statistically based projections.

The ELECTROMAGNETIC DYNAMIC PARADIGM for defining solar cycles is currently lost in the FLUX, in a matter of speaking.  This new paradigm forecast Solar Cycle 24 as having begun in late 2007 or January 2008.  Unfortunately it is now strongly possible that this will produce a variance of 9-12 months from the traditional 13 month weighted average (smoothed) method of defining the SOLAR MIN.  For purposes of comparative study of the impact of Solar Activity on Earth and its parts,  this much variation is not good.  Thus it is best to continue to use the traditional statistical method for marking the cycles.

 

[1-12-09 ECB] ASSESSMENT OF IMPLICATIONS OF THESE CONCLUSIONS:  The drawn out length of Solar MIN and a smaller Cycle 24 will promote a trend of Global Cooling, as some are speculating.  BUT this factor may be overshadowed by tectonic-induced Global Warming.  Thus Global Warming may continue.  If so, it will be apparent to nearly all scientists by about 2013/14 that Global Warming is an activity of the Earth, not of the Sun nor of reflected heat induced by human-created so-called greenhouse gases. Having said this, we cannot predict with precision either the amount of tectonic Global Warming nor the amount of Solar Activity during the next several years, hence the future of this warming trend (or cooling onset) is by no means certain as of 1-12-09

 

CURRENT SOLAR MIN PHASE
click on image to call up source with expanded version and text

source:  SIDC, Brussels;  http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfjmms.html
 

[1-12-09 ECB] Solar Activity for August 08 corresponded very well with the "SM Trend" in this chart above.  We had almost an entire month of 0 Sunspots.  But It does not correspond with December 2008 (second peg mark to the left from 2010), which had only 0.8 average sunspot count per day, less than the few which were predicted.  This suggests strongly that we are barely out of Solar MIN.  It also suggests that the advent of Solar Cycle 24 will be slower than the previous cycle and that quite possibly the peak of #24 will be smaller (as some scientists are predicting) than #23.  Historical cycle comparisons seems to show that slow advents have low peaks.

 

[9-1-08 ECB] Solar Historical Perspective -

These charts are from the ECB Gallery.  They are not for general release at this time.  I am showing these now in the Bulletins to help readers gain a better sense of perspective about the current year and the next several. You will get a better idea of what to be watching.

 

Chart - 50 Year Trend Line Solar Activity - Monthly Count

As can be seen in this chart, a month of zero Sunspot Count occurs in many but not all of the Solar MIN periods.  There is nothing all that unusual about Solar Activity at this time once you look at a larger frame of time.

 

Chart - 100 Year Trend Line Solar Activity - Annual Count

This chart is even more interesting.  It is part of what I call the Vortex Paradigm Proof. It demonstrates the chilling accuracy of Edgar Cayce's comments, made during the 1930's.  Notice first that during the first half of the 20th century there were some years in which the entire year had an almost zero average count - less than five.  That has not happened since the peak of Solar Cycle 19 in 1958.  Shades of Edgar Cayce, who predicted during the 1930's that Major Changes in the Earth would begin in 1958.  Now notice that in Wobble Cycle 7 (1930's), for the first time on this graph the greatest amount of swing in the wobble was above the x= zero line.  This means that, as Cayce predicted during 1932 for the period 1935, a shifting in the balance of the Earth's orientation in space would occur.  Following this, in 1958 major trends of change would begin.  Notice that the X and Y directions of the wobble begin to progressively separate after a huge Solar MAX (Cycle 19 during Wobble 11) in 1958.  What this graph is telling us is that the wobble's average location is shifting progressively much more quickly towards Longitude West 90 (Y) than towards Longitude 0 (X) and this directional shift began when Cayce predicted a major trend of change would begin. 

 

This tells us something incredibly important, namely, the equilibrium of the Earth's wobble in space can be influenced by the stormy energy in a major Sunspot Cycle. A blast of the Sun can move the Earth, change its orientation and orbit.  In fact it did so and all the trends of geophysical and ecological change in the Earth are a direct consequence, most emphatically including Global Warming.  There is no doubt about this whatsoever.  So far, this shift continues, the Earth has not regained stability.  The cycles since SS #11 have been far smaller in total energy output but they still outweigh by far the cycles of the first half of the 20th century. Rather exact the correlations, are they not?

 

Now you can see why the Earth Changes Bulletin is so focused on the Sun and the Cosmic Frame to provide the backdrop for analyzing the changes on the Earth.  Looking at this chart we realize the truth of the Hermetic Doctrine, as above so below, taught since the earliest days of Egypt.  By following the Sun in detail, we will be able to observe in advance the influences which will result in the next destabilization of the wobble and shifting of the poles. In the train of the destabilization will come accelerated breaking in the crust, which will produce major tectonic rifting, volcanism, earthquakes, and their tertiary effect, an increase in the rate of Global Warming. 

 

There is little to doubt about this.  But as can be also observed, there really is no statistical basis for predicting whether the next cycle is going to be bigger, smaller, or the same. So the larger frame of time is unknowable, but yet we probably can observe enough within the framework of A CYCLE to compare enough facts to draw appropriate conclusions. As the man said a long time ago, watch!  The astute will know what to do.

 

Chart - 100 Year Trend Line Solar Activity Correlate World Heat

This chart is part of what I call the Al Gore Paradigm Buster. It properly correlates Global Warming with the changes in the World Ocean.  During the first half of the 20th Century, before the acceleration of trends in tectonic motion began with the shifting of the wobble, global temperature shifts more or less seem to approximately parallel with the level of Solar Cycle activity.  Then 1958 begins, the blowout of Solar Cycle 19 pushes all the buttons, the measurement of the heat in the world oceans begins and we see that Global Warming rises isomorphicly with the increase of heat in the World Ocean  and both are moving, on average,  in an opposite direction from the average energy which is being received from the Sun.  The total Solar Input, declined, as a matter fact, and may continue to decline for all we know during 2008. Some say this decline will continue and a new "ice age" will begin.  But this chart rains on their parade as well. The heat gain is in the oceans and that heat gain is flowing from the bottom to the top...probably proving what marine geologists have been claiming the past couple of decades, there is a million times as much volcanism on the bottoms of the oceans as on the continents and islands. Thus this chart demonstrates that geophysical changes in the Earth could continue to drive Global Warming even if we have Solar Cycles during the next decades which look like the small ones in the first half of the 20th Century or the even smaller ones in the 19th Century.  With this chart before you, you cannot intelligently assert that small increases in "reflected" heat energy from a declining Sun is the cause of Global Warming.

 

HISTORY OF SOLAR CYCLE 23 & PROJECTED TRANSITION TO CYCLE 24
click on image to call up source with expanded version and text

This is a fuller, long-term version of the SIDC chart above

source:  SIDC, Brussels;  http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfjmms.html

http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-index-graphics/sidc_graphics.php
 

[1-12-09 ECB] STANDING PREDICTION FOR SOLAR CYCLE 24 AS OF JANUARY 09:

 

It looks now as of the Sun is likely to follow fairly closely the curve for Solar Activity which is laid out on curve "SM" (defined by researchers at the SIDC center in Brussels) or perhaps it will follow a slightly slower course. Accordingly this will tend to push the beginning of the next Solar Sunspot MAX out to the end of 2012 and make 2013/14 the most active years.  This conclusion is reached after following the speculative new electrodynamic paradigm of the Sun and then abandoning it last fall.  It was well worth working with it to study possible better methods of observing solar behavior but the older statistical method seems to be better method for maintaining consistency with the 350 years of sunspot count records. 

 

Solar Cycle 24 most likely began August/September 08.  The year 2008 likely will be the fist MIN year, August 08 may be the MIN "turn month". The year 2009 is likely to be a mirroring MIN year, showing a very small acceleration during the year.  Solar Activity and Sunspot counts are likely to sporadic, low, and many alignments, especially those connected with the outer planets, may not produce much activity. 

 

The ramp up to the peak of Solar Activity Cycle 24 may be equally slow and with lower than average (or at least lower than Solar Cycle 23) major solar storms, flares, and CME's.  Solar Cycle 24 activity, if the ramp is as slow as it now appears it is going to be, may peak barely above a monthly average of 100 daily sunspots, or possibly even a little lower, reaching climax possibly very late in 2012,  but more likely during  2013-2014 and substantial activity may continue through to 2016.  If the ramp up duplicates the speed and magnitude of some of the cycles during the first half of the 20th century, the peak may not be reached until 2014-2016 and elevated activity could continue through to 2018, with the final ramp down occuring in the years 2019-2024. Such are the permutable vagaries of Sunspot Cycles.

 

Naturally, surprises could emerge to substantially alter this image of Solar Cycle 24.  The Cosmic Frame has an undeniable chaotic aspect to all dynamic flux which is observed through time.  But the probability of such surprises likely will decline during the next 36 months. By 2011, we will likely have a very good basis of projecting much about the remainder of this solar cycle, though 90% certainty about any particular variable is not likely. 

 

Notwithstanding these prognostications, humanity must keep ever mindful that Solar Activity is inherently unstable within "the long view".  The greatest solar explosion of the 20th century occurred during a small Sunspot Cycle and induced enough electrical energy into power lines to electrify electrical workers during the middle of the 20th Century and cause wide spread damage and outages.  A comparable storm in this century could cause hundreds of billions of dollars of damage to computers, networks, equipment of all sorts, and virtually short-circuit major aspects of economic activity for weeks if not months.  This fact is one of the principle reasons why both the Cosmic Frame and Solar Activity should be watched carefully.  Given the existing state of our ignorance, we must acknowledge that for all we know such a storm could occur at any time, though there are likely to be some indications, some harbingers.

 

As solar activity gradually increases during the next several years, both environmental dynamics and human behavior and emotionalism will shift into a more rapid flux of activity and reactivity.  Solar Cycle 23 engendered deep, bitter polarizations in the world, especially in Palestine, the Middle East, and vis a vis the United States, both internationally and domestically.  Rather than resolve divisions and conflict, humans accentuated them during this last Solar Cycle.  Accordingly, during the coming cycle human reactivity and tendency to fear and violence will become greater and could easily match the worst episodes in human history. 

 

Human affairs will be accompanied by extreme weather patterns in climate, cyclones, tornadoes, ocean storm-fronts, flooding, and drought conditions.  These will be made all the more extreme under the ionic influence of the once-again active Sun which is producing major Solar Storms, Flares, and Ionic Wind Gusts.  Under this growing pressure, which will reach its heights in about 2013-2016, both the terrestrial environment and human societies will be subject to immense dynamic flux which will alter both the greater expanse of the Earth as well as the nations and the affairs of humans.

 

After what may appear to be three or four years of Global Cooling,  Global Warming likely will reappear (induced by a combination of Solar Activity and increased Tectonic Activity).  The on-set will  be perhaps more rapid than during the first few years of this century.  It will act to compound and aggravate the stress directly induced on the environment by the high level of Solar Activity and the reappearance of the warming trend will certainly confound all those people who still do not comprehend that they must learn to live their lives with the flux of the Cosmic Frame.

 

Mass migrations will become more frequent, more agriculture and oceanic food sources will fail, more nations will collapse (as in Africa), and the general level of violence will increase in many areas.  The exceptionally strong internal polarization in the U.S. against the Cabal of banksters and their oil-soaked Junta, and as well the antagonistic international polarization against the U.S., likely will be resolved by  acceleration of the chronic "half-collapse" of the current economic and political system in the U.S.

 

Already this tension can be seen and many are preparing for the worst to come in the years ahead.  But there is also still the possibility that a new regime based on Barack Obama's ability to learn and sincerity to change the course of affairs could undertake enough change in positive directions to avert disintegration of the U.S. as a nation. The rising solar flux couId produce an ebullient turn-around in the goals and moods in mass consciousness and begin the U.S. economy spiraling into an era of regenerative growth which exceeds most prior periods.

 

Such a turn-around is possible.   But if not, if the political class in Washington DC cannot rise to the opportunity,  this unfolding period will be marked by paralysis of politics throughout the world and a chaotic period of increased repression and rebellion which gradually destroys the power of Federal agencies which have usurped far too much illegal (unconstitutional) power.  Many nations may be caught in the same trap.

 

Regardless, likely the period will also spawn many concerted efforts to change major aspects of the constitution of the U.S. and the structure of its government.  In fact, these movements have already begun and are very likely to grow, perhaps reaching a peak in about 2012. These efforts are necessitated by the gross and cynical usurpations of authority and power by the Globalists since the beginning of the National Security State during Truman's time in the late 1940's, largely under ministrations of a handful of super wealthy families, the most famous of which are the Rothschilds and the Rockefellers, who have operated the CIA and other Federal Agencies as their own right-wing political enforcers and death squad committees. The counter-movements and intense political struggle will crescendo even as Solar Cycle 24 reaches an energetic peak to raise human emotionality to its highest levels of reactivity.

 

Increased international militarism may be attempted by intellectually and morally bankrupt Zionazi puppetmasters, various cliques composed of industry and professional groups, and agit-prop organizations such as AIPAC and CFR who manipulate and strongly influence nearly all institutions in the U.S. East Coast under the guise of "rational" globalism.  These attempts may be and probably will be made in various guises, including in such barbarous forms as the Jewish Pogrom of Palestinian Gaza during January 2009  Likely, however, these efforts will end a few years down the road in greater failure and bankruptcy of the U.S. and virtual abandonment of U.S. militarism by an exhausted citizenry.  These matters may come to a head and be resolved early on during the first two years of the Obama administration or they will become the center stage of political drama once again during the solar energized years of 2012-2014.

 

[1-12-09 ECB] Passage To Solar Cycle 24: 

 

NOTES ON SOLAR CYCLES, ACTIVITY, WEATHER:

 

CLARIFICATIONS OF TWO MAJOR CONFUSIONS ABOUT SOLAR CYCLE 24 WHICH ARE ON THE IWAY:  Some people are remarking about HOW UNUSUAL IS the low level of Solar Activity. Some even have confused the cycle to suppose that the Sun is supposed to be in its MAX condition during the later part of this year.  THERE IS NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL OF SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING THE LAST 18 MONTHS.  WE ARE IN SOLAR MIN, A CONDITION OF VERY LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY WHICH RE-OCCURS EVERY 7-13 YEARS, GENERALLY ABOUT EVERY 11 YEARS.   Since the cycle varies in length, there is nothing unusual about any current timing factor. Sometime during 2009 the Sun will most likely begin a vigorous ascent to its MAX levels of activity, which it will likely reach sometime 2011-2013.  However, even this projection is based on "average" expectations.  It could remain low until 2010 and not reach the next MAX until 2013. Another confusion surrounds the likely size of the next Solar MAX.  Using advanced physics modeling, some people expect a much larger than normal Sunspot MAX, others using short term statistics expect a smaller MAX than usual.  Reality is that the PEAK OF SOLAR CYCLE 24 MAX IS PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE TO CALL ON scientific grounds (if one knew all that humans knew on the topic).

 

Last year I personally GUESSED from the cycle stats and rhythms of the past two hundred years is that the next cycle would be larger than normal. I now think that the guess is wrong and that we will have a less energetic Solar Activity Cycle than at anytime since 1945. This is likely to slow down the Global Warming Trend, if not actually cancel it out for a few years   From the point of view of human politics, it would be a good thing if the next cycle is lower than average, emotional reactions will not be so charged in this era of incredibly brittle human relationships and social structures. 

 

A less active Sun could lay to rest definitively the theory of greenhouse gases if the trend of Global Warming resumes trending upward.  This it will do if the tectonic activity trend continues to rise and consequently accelerate the  tectonic warming of the world ocean (heat flux through the Great Rift). This however is not certain to be consistently upward (dips are possible) because the trend of tectonic activity is not perfectly linear, remissions and slowdowns re-occur every few years and we most likely are in a plateau period at this present time.  Accordingly, global cooling may actually be setting in at the moment, discounting the entire concept of climate change.  To add to the confusion, we have no physical basis to predict an acceleration of tectonic activity in subsequent years, thus we have no real basis for predicting the continuation of Global Warming.  Even if tectonic heat sources increase again, it will take years to manifest again as a new round of warming of the world ocean.  In the meantime, a cooling Sun will seem to be the cause of a new trend of Global Cooling.  This will make it seem that the elevated Solar Activity of the past 60 years created the Global Warming of prior years and thus the notion of greenhouse gases causing climate change will utterly perish (as it should in any event). 

 

Perhaps it is just as well, the current "Anti-Carbon Lobby" which has been taken up by the Globalist New World Order crowd is ludicrous and needs to be quickly retired into the closet with all due embarrassment.  Implementing such policies will be sheer economic lunacy and impoverish billions of people..

 

IMPORTANT NOTE WHICH MOST PEOPLE STILL ARE NOT GETTING:

The Sun is at minimum levels of activity - it is at its lowest ebb since 1997.  Thus the climate patterns this year have nothing to do with solar cycles and are entirely related to global warming phenomenon produced by tectonic causes. MAY'S EXTREMES IN CYCLONES (Myanmar) AND TORNADOES (N.A. Midwest & Plains) PLAINLY AND ABSOLUTELY IS NOT A RESULT OF STIMULUS FROM THE SUN NOR NATURAL NOR HUMAN-CAUSED CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.  The same thing can be definitively argued for the rapid acceleration of the annual melt in the Arctic. A reduction in solar output means that the reflected energy in the atmosphere IS LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS YEARS.  Since the continents cannot store heat, the heat MUST be coming from the oceans, which has clearly been demonstrated TO BE RISING FROM THE DEPTHS.   Thus this can only be "Tectonic Global Warming Syndrome", which shows us what the new weather "normal" is becoming as the Earth's oceans continue to gradually warm from tectonic causes.  The Sun and the atmosphere and carbon dioxide HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE TREND.