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COSMIC | GEOPHYSICAL | GEOPOLITICAL | SPIRITUAL | TRANSFORMATIONS Cosmic Watch
Monitoring The Changes In The Earth September 1, 2008
Galaxy -
Solar Activity -
Solar Cycle 24
Magnetic Field
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The Changes
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GALACTIC PHENOMENON: Coming soon Links to: ALMANAC | GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR
SOLAR
ACTIVITY Links to: ALMANAC | SOLAR GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR
Alvestad Solar Activity Graph As Of August 31, 2008 click on this graph to view it in full size In this chart the black line is the Solar Flux as measured in orbit near the Earth, the red line is the Sunspot Number and the blue line is a measure of the strength of the magnetic field in the Earth’s high atmosphere (called the Planetary A Index).
Note that Alvestad is using the historical statistical method and is still treating the current activity of the Sun as a part of Solar Cycle 23.
graph courtesy
Jan Alvestad http://www.dxlc.com/solar/
[8-18-08 ECB] Coverage of solar activity is revised as of this date. Longer range cycle data is included to provide a better perspective, daily/weekly update is below Cycle 23 trend lines. IMPORTANT CONCLUSIONS AS OF THIS DATE: In accordance with a more traditional statistical method of analyzing Solar Cycles, the EC Bulletin concludes that
The ELECTROMAGNETIC DYNAMIC PARADIGM for defining solar cycles is currently lost in the FLUX, in a matter of speaking. This new paradigm forecast Solar Cycle 24 as having begun in late 2007 or January 2008. Unfortunately it is now strongly possible that this will produce a variance of 9-12 months from the traditional 13 month weighted average (smoothed) method of defining the SOLAR MIN. For purposes of comparative study of the impact of Solar Activity on Earth and its parts, this much variation is not good. Thus it is best to continue to use the traditional statistical method for marking the cycles.
[8-18-08 ECB] ASSESSMENT OF IMPLICATIONS OF THESE CONCLUSIONS: The drawn out length of Solar MIN and a smaller Cycle 24 will promote a trend of Global Cooling, as some are speculating. BUT this factor may be overshadowed by tectonic-induced Global Warming. Thus Global Warming may continue. If so, it will be apparent to nearly all scientists by about 2013/14 that Global Warming is an activity of the Earth, not of the Sun nor of reflected heat induced by human-created so-called greenhouse gases. Having said this, we cannot predict with precision either the amount of tectonic Global Warming nor the amount of Solar Activity during the next several years, hence the future is by no means certain as of 8-18-08
CURRENT SOLAR MIN
PHASE
source: SIDC,
Brussels;
http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfjmms.html [8-18-08 ECB] Current Solar Activity for August 08 corresponds very well with the "SM Trend" in this chart above. We have had almost an entire month of 0 Sunspots. This follows on July which averaged only 0.5 Sunspots per day. This suggests strongly that Solar MIN is occurring right now, rather than 10 to 8 months ago.
[8-25-08 ECB] Now we have had some 35 days without any Sunspots, a full five weeks! This despite the fact that Mercury has aligned itself with all the inner planets and most of the outer planets during the past 60 days. This "round" of Mercury (orbit around the Sun) must surely be the "message from the celestial gods" that Solar Cycle 23 is ending and Cycle 24 is about to begin.
[9-1-08 ECB] Over 40 days of no Sunspots!!!
[9-1-08 ECB] Solar Historical Perspective - These charts are from the ECB Gallery. They are not for general release at this time. I am showing these now in the Bulletins to help readers can a better sense of perspective about the current year and the next several. You will get a better idea of what to be watching.
Chart - 50 Year Trend Line Solar Activity - Monthly Count As can be seen in this chart, a month of zero Sunspot Count occurs in many but not all of the Solar MIN periods. There is nothing all that unusual about Solar Activity at this time once you look at a larger frame of time.
Chart - 100 Year Trend Line Solar Activity - Annual Count This chart is even more interesting. It is part of what I call the Vortex Paradigm Proof. It demonstrates the chilling accuracy of Edgar Cayce's comments, made during the 1930's. Notice first that during the first half of the 20th century there were some years in which the entire year had an almost zero average count - less than five. That has not happened since the peak of Solar Cycle 19 in 1958. Shades of Edgar Cayce, who predicted during the 1930's that Major Changes in the Earth would begin in 1958. Now notice that in Wobble Cycle 7 (1930's), for the first time on this graph the greatest amount of swing in the wobble was above the x= zero line. This means that, as Cayce predicted during 1932 for the period 1935, a shifting in the balance of the Earth's orientation in space would occur. Following this, in 1958 major trends of change would begin. Notice that the X and Y directions of the wobble begin to progressively separate after a huge Solar MAX (Cycle 19 during Wobble 11) in 1958. What this graph is telling us is that the wobble's average location is shifting progressively much more quickly towards Longitude West 90 (Y) than towards Longitude 0 (X) and this directional shift began when Cayce predicted.
This tells us something incredibly important, namely, the equilibrium of the Earth's wobble in space can be influenced by the stormy energy in a major Sunspot Cycle. A blast of the Sun can move the Earth, change its orientation and orbit. In fact it did so and all the trends of geophysical and ecological change in the Earth are a direct consequence, most emphatically including Global Warming. There is no doubt about this whatsoever. So far, this shift continues, the Earth has not regained stability. The cycles since SS #11 have been far smaller in total energy output but they still outweigh by far the cycles of the first half of the 20th century. Rather exact the correlations, are they not?
Now you can see why the Earth Changes Bulletin is so focused on the Sun and the Cosmic Frame to provide the backdrop for analyzing the changes on the Earth. Looking at this chart we realize the truth of the Hermetic Doctrine, as above so below, taught since the earliest days of Egypt. By following the Sun in detail, we will be able to observe in advance the influences which will result in the next destabilization of the wobble and shifting of the poles. In the train of the destabilization will come accelerated breaking in the crust, which will produce major tectonic rifting, volcanism, earthquakes, and their tertiary effect, an increase in the rate of Global Warming.
There is little to doubt about this. But as can be also observed, there really is no statistical basis for predicting whether the next cycle is going to be bigger, smaller, or the same. So the larger frame of time is unknowable, but yet we probably can observe enough within the framework of A CYCLE to compare enough facts to draw appropriate conclusions. As the man said a long time ago, watch! The astute will know what to do.
Chart - 100 Year Trend Line Solar Activity Correlate World Heat This chart is part of what I call the Al Gore Paradigm Buster. It properly correlates Global Warming with the changes in the World Ocean. During the first half of the 20th Century, before the acceleration of trends in tectonic motion began with the shifting of the wobble, global temperature shifts more or less seem to approximately parallel with the level of Solar Cycle activity. Then 1958 begins, the blowout of Solar Cycle 19 pushes all the buttons, the measurement of the heat in the world oceans begins and we see that Global Warming rises isomorphicly with the increase of heat in the World Ocean and both are moving, on average, in an opposite direction from the average energy which is being received from the Sun. The total Solar Input, declined, as a matter fact, and may continue to decline for all we know during 2008. Some say this decline will continue and a new "ice age" will begin. But this chart rains on their parade as well. The heat gain is in the oceans and that heat gain is flowing from the bottom to the top...probably proving what marine geologists have been claiming the past couple of decades, there is a million times as much volcanism on the bottoms of the oceans as on the continents and islands. Thus this chart demonstrates that geophysical changes in the Earth could continue to drive Global Warming even if we have Solar Cycles during the next decades which look like the small ones in the first half of the 20th Century or the even smaller ones in the 19th Century. With this chart before you, you cannot intelligently assert that small increases in "reflected" heat energy from a declining Sun is the cause of Global Warming.
HISTORY OF SOLAR
CYCLE 23 & PROJECTED TRANSITION TO CYCLE 24 This is a fuller, long-term version of the SIDC chart above
source: SIDC,
Brussels;
http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfjmms.html
For additional information on the influence of Sunspots and Solar Activity Cycles, go to the Earth Changes Solar Gallery. (this link not active yet).
[9-1-08 ECB] Sunspots have been zip for six weeks running. With the exception of a brief rise in Solar Activity early in July, which persisted for only three days, the Sun has been flat line ZIP for most of three months. Solar Flux is also flat line at about 66 or 67. Official sunspot count for August is ZERO, first such month in12 years (1996). There are a couple of small coronal holes (in the Sun's atmosphere) and the Earth may enter into modest solar wind disturbances for a few on or after about September 3, NASA reports. The Planetary A Magnetic Index (upper atmosphere field strength) remains low below 5 and Alaska's Fluxgate Monitor (U. of A.) continues to flat line a glass surface on the :solar sea". Since Mercury's alignments with the planets during this Solar MIN have failed to serve as predictions for solar activity, no predictions are in the offing at this time See Planetary Alignments for longer range forecast.
[7-21-08 ECB] Quick Solar Activity Forecast From Planetary Alignments: We are clearly still very much in Solar Min and accordingly you must ascribe the extremes in weather and climate patterns at this time to the emerging global warming syndrome. Don't expect much activity from the sun this year, which is a very very good thing. Human wars generally do not commence during the solar min phase. They generally begin to roll as the solar cycle reaches maximum intensity. The next intense peak period will begin approximately 2012-2013.
Click here for NOAA Sunspot Table For Past 30 Days
MAGNETIC
DISTURBANCES [9-1-08 ECB] Fluxgate Monitor is flat line. No instability is currently expected during the next week with the possible exception of some mild signals from the coronal hole solar wind acceleration.. (Always keep in mind that even during a Solar Min period, intense X class flares and CME's occasionally occur and produce intense magnetic storms in the atmosphere.) CLICK ON GRAPH
FOR EXPANDED VIEW [8-18-08 ECB] Passage To Solar Cycle 24:
source: http://www.dxlc.com/solar/
The latest numbers computed by Jan Alvestad, using ISSN numbers, report that August and July's average flux and ISSN sunspot count Monthly Daily Average is the lowest since the beginning of Sunspot Cycle 23. Using the Statistical Model for inferring the beginning of Solar Cycles, this may mean that WE MAY STILL BE IN SOLAR CYCLE 23 BUT WE MAY BE TURNING THE CYCLE RIGHT NOW, THIS VERY WEEK.
HISTORY OF SOLAR
CYCLES a la BRUSSELS SIDC
source: SIDC, Brussels; http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfaml.html
TO COMPARE THE LAST THREE SOLAR CYCLES SUPERIMPOSED ON EACH OTHER, CLICK HERE. As can be seen, there is nothing exact about the Sunspot Cycle. Length varies and so does the numbers of events and the energy released.
HATHAWAY ELECTROMAGNETIC PREDICTION MODEL For current, critical information about the past few cycles and Sunspot Cycle 24, click here. NASA MORE OR LESS STILL AGREES THAT SOLAR CYCLE 24 HAS BEGUN. For more details, go to Almanac: Cycles of the Sun
source: NASA, http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/28mar_oldcycle.htm
NOTES ON SOLAR CYCLES, ACTIVITY, WEATHER:
CLARIFICATIONS OF TWO MAJOR CONFUSIONS ABOUT THIS SOLAR CYCLE 24 WHICH ARE ON THE IWAY DURING MID 2008: Some people are remarking about HOW UNUSUAL IS the low level of Solar Activity. Some even have confused the cycle to suppose that the Sun is supposed to be in its MAX condition during the later part of this year. THERE IS NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL OF SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING THE LAST 18 MONTHS. WE ARE IN SOLAR MIN, A CONDITION OF VERY LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY WHICH RE-OCCURS EVERY 7-13 YEARS, GENERALLY ABOUT EVERY 11 YEARS. Since the cycle varies in length, there is nothing unusual about any current timing factor. Sometime during 2009 the Sun will most likely begin a vigorous ascent to its MAX levels of activity, which it will likely reach sometime 2011-2013. However, even this projection is based on "average" expectations. It could remain low until 2010 and not reach the next MAX until 2013. Another confusion surrounds the likely size of the next Solar MAX. Using advanced physics modeling, some people expect a much larger than normal Sunspot MAX, others using short term statistics expect a smaller MAX than usual. Reality is that the PEAK OF SOLAR CYCLE 24 MAX IS PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE TO CALL ON scientific grounds (if one knew all that humans knew on the topic). BUT, my personal GUESS from the cycle stats and rhythms of the past two hundred years is that the next cycle will be larger than normal. From the point of view of human politics, it would be a good thing if the next cycle is lower than average. Such an event most likely would lay to rest definitively the theory of greenhouse gases since Global Warming will continue to trend upward as a result of the current round of accelerated tectonic warming of the world ocean (heat flux through the Great Rift).
IMPORTANT NOTE WHICH MOST PEOPLE STILL ARE NOT GETTING: The Sun is at minimum levels of activity - it is at its lowest ebb since 1997. Thus the climate patterns this year have nothing to do with solar cycles and are entirely related to global warming phenomenon produced by tectonic causes. MAY'S EXTREMES IN CYCLONES (Myanmar) AND TORNADOES (N.A. Midwest & Plains) PLAINLY AND ABSOLUTELY IS NOT A RESULT OF STIMULUS FROM THE SUN NOR NATURAL NOR HUMAN-CAUSED CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. The same thing can be definitively argued for the rapid acceleration of the annual melt in the Arctic. A reduction in solar output means that the reflected energy in the atmosphere IS LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS YEARS. Since the continents cannot store heat, the heat MUST be coming from the oceans, which has clearly been demonstrated TO BE RISING FROM THE DEPTHS. Thus this can only be "Tectonic Global Warming Syndrome", which shows us what the new weather "normal" is becoming as the Earth's oceans continue to gradually warm from tectonic causes. The Sun and the atmosphere and carbon dioxide HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE TREND.
With this in mind, we can watch what happens during the remainder of 2008 if surges in Solar Activity bring higher Sunspot Counts, increased solar wind streams, and increased atmospheric disturbances. A noticeable rise in Solar output, however, will most likely not begin until late in 2009.
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The Planets
of the Horos Sun
PLANETARY ACTIVITY: Skywatching, Planet Alignments, Moon,
Asteroids
Courtesy Jet Propulsion Lab
NIGHT SKY FOR September 2, 2008 from Hopiland: Click for full screen sky map
THIS CHART SET FOR 7:30 PM TUESDAY EVENING, ARIZONA TIME - about 10 minutes after the Sun sets.
IMAGE PRODUCED BY MICA, software & data from the JPL & U.S. Naval Observatory
If you want to learn how to follow the stars at night and get deeper into the cosmic scene of the planetary alignments, how the solar system actually works, and so forth, start using this. It is centered for 4 AM Greenwich Tuesdays (the map is changed for each weekly update) for Arizona Mountain Time (no daylight savings- 9 pm Monday evening) at 2000 meter elevation on approximately Black Mesa, Hopi Land. This projection is produced by U.S. Navy Observatory MICA software and Ephemeris (Ephemeris is maintained on line by JPL). It is more or less the world standard of algorithms for precisely tracking the cosmos and the software is such a snap to use to create powerful results, I cannot resist using it. With this you can stand on the bridge of a vessel at sea and navigate like they used to do (but no longer, its all satellite positioning now, but old habits die not at all in the navies of the world). Hopi Land was selected as the focal point because this provides the same approximate night sky to New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and California (with a little time delay). Sorry, you folks in the Pacific Northwest will not be able to use this very well, you need your own projection. As a rough and ready make-do, just face the South and look for the relevant items about 10 to 20 degrees lower than indicated in the chart. Like California, expect events in the chart to be one hour earlier than your time.
PLANET WATCH:
[9-1-2008] This is for September 2 & 3 viewing. The sky is even more interesting this week. The panoply puts the Milky Way in the center of the sky, running fairly close South to North, with Polaris due North, Vega in the Zenith of the mid-heavens, Arcturus in the western sky, and Jupiter in the southern sky riding the ass of the cow which jumps over the Galaxy (old Egyptian story). To this panoply, Mars, Venus, and Mercury are tightly clustered on the western horizon at sunset, riding a little to the north of the New Moon, which is passing over the Equator on September 2 on its way to its Southern Declination. Check them out. Click on the chart above and then click the web chart again to expand it to full size.
First, the inner planet cluster on the sunset. I imagine (I have to because I do not read astrological stuff) that astrologers are quacking up a storm about this conjunction. The ancient Egyptians would call this a "train" in the "Solar Boat of Ra" (but you don't know that because euro-centric academics are still pretending that the ancients knew nothing about the heliocentric solar system). I saw just one very bright planet on Sunday at sunset and I wondered if it was Venus or Mars, but then the clouds came and I was never able to see enough to figure it out. Tuesday and Wednesday evening I hope to see all three inner planets. Venus should be the brightest (it is the closest), Mars should have still a slight tinge of red, and Mercury will be very intensely bright in a tiny needle point of light so small you won't see it if you have lousy eyesight. It will be closest to the Sun. All three are very close together. Quite a rare sight. Pour a special celebratory treat and make a serious effort to try to catch it. 7:30 PM Arizona Absolute Mountain Time, UTC -7 hours. (Because of the very hot summers, Arizona was never interested in daylight savings time). If there is a lot of haze, you may not be able to see Mercury, but the other two should be briefly above the horizon.
Second, the outer planets. In the chart above you will notice that all the outer planets except Saturn are still neatly arranged in the zodiac belt. The Moon, of course, can't be seen because it is in the day sky as it approaches its New Moon phase. Nor are you able to actually see Pluto and Neptune, only Jupiter can be seen by the naked eye. Look for the Zenith (overhead point in the vault of the stars), then look directly South to find the first star you see tonight (or tomorrow). Jupiter shines so brightly you cannot miss it nor confuse it with the stars but you could mistake it for a jetliner with its landing lights on. Pick the brightest light in the southern sky about 30 minutes after sunset and you will see it.
Next, the Sun of our Sun.
See if you can find Arcturus, in the Mid-heavens now near the western horizon. It also is hard to mistake for the others, it is so bright. In fact, after Sunset, the first point of light you will see is Jupiter, the second point of light is Arcturus. Arcturus was claimed by Edgar Cayce to be the Sun of our Sun. If so, its gravity field is a determinant of how the Earth's orbit resonates in our Solar System. When Arcturus and our Sun each year are close to being in a straight line, vis a vis the Earth, the Earth is close to its orbital Perihelion (its closest approach to the Sun). It would be interesting to see how the other planetary orbits resonate with Arcturus. So much to do, so much to do, never enough time.
Next, The Pole Star (which is almost directly overhead the North Spin Axis). Look above Arcturus to find the Big Dipper. Then look to the right of the Big Dipper to the Mid-Heaven close to the northern horizon. There is Polaris, our Pole Star. Then look to the Zenith again and find Vega. Vega also is very bright and is hard to confuse. Vega is close to our Sun, relatively speaking, is estimated by astrophysicists to be very young. Curiously Vega's axis is oriented to point directly towards our Solar System and during the Summer time, when the Earth is as far as it can get from the Sun (Aphelion), the Southern Hemisphere is oriented as far as it can get to point towards Vega.
Coincidence? Not likely. There probably are NO coincidences in the skies. More likely it is that there is a linkage in the cosmic frame between this solar system and Vega. It's gravity field is serving as an antipode to Arcturus. Perhaps Vega is in the same Arcturan Super-System, along with another half dozen to a dozen stars or so.
Links to: ALMANAC | COSMIC GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR SOLAR SYSTEM FORECAST: For a listing of all planetary alignments and charts for 2008, click onto the 2008 Alignment Almanac. Sunspot and solar activity should peak generally 8 to 3 days in advance of these alignment dates but keep in mind that some times the solar peak comes in on the day or the day after the alignment.
[8-18-08] FOR AUGUST
Given the tepid response of the Sun so far during 2008 to most planetary alignments, perhaps the most we can expect is about as much as the past few peaks during early 2008, which have generally been about 10-15. Beyond this weak notion, it is very difficult to predict much during this transition stage between Solar Cycle 23 and 24.
August 23, 2008 - Venus | Mars
from Home Planet Software
September 10, 2008 -
Double Header
from Home Planet Software
September 14, 2008 -
Double Header
from Home Planet Software
Links to: ALMANAC | COSMIC GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR To quickly surmise the situation for the week, use these graphs below by clicking on their titles. Use these graphs which are drawn by MWM from JPL Ephemeris table data to find PERIGEE, DECLINATION, AND PHASE (NEW OR FULL MOON). Once you figure out how to read them, which is not difficult, you will find these more powerful than words. Please note that you may have to click on the pictures in the browser to instruct your browser to display them in their full size.
The Giant Plot allows you to see the exact dates (UTC).
Giant Plot For Easy Viewing Day By Day For a more traditional text table of the Lunar Schedule, go to the Almanac Declination (Dragon Cycle) and Distance (Perigee Cycle) define the strongest and most extreme moments of Lunar influence on the Earth. Distances of less than 365,000 KM indicate Perigees with the Lunar gravity field considerably stronger than average. Declinations of 27 or 28 indicate an extreme position of the Moon over the Northern (+) or Southern Hemisphere (-). A high declination with a low distance for Perigee exerts significantly greater torque on the Earth in zones which do not usually receive so much. The "timing" of these "moments" creates "windows" of exceptional syzygy. These relationships are best viewed in graph form.
[9-1-08 ECB] The Lunar Orbit continues to progressively de-synchronize its cycles. The Moon is now just past New and is headed to a weak Apogee in a few days followed by an Extreme Southern Declination about September 8/9. Unusual tectonic activity should not be expected, it should run below average levels.
[8-4-08 ECB] Considerable de-synchronization now emerges in the lunar cycles and this will persist until November 2008. November will begin a new round of synchronized lunar cycles, with December producing the strongest synchronization of the year in a near perfect alignment with the Earth's Perihelion, during both the New Moon (Dec. 27/28) and Full Moon (Dec. 13). These then are likely months of the greatest quake events and these are likely to exceed the tectonic activity of April/ May/June.
[4-28-08 ECB] STANDING SYZYGY ANALYSIS FOR THE YEAR. There will be a weak synchronization in May and June of 2008, then strong de-synchronization until November 2008. November will begin a new round of synchronized Lunar cycles, with December producing the strongest synchronization of the year in a near perfect alignment with the Earth's Perihelion, during both the New Moon (Dec. 27/28) and Full Moon (Dec. 13). These then are likely months of the greatest quake events. AS OF JULY 21, SO FAR THIS ROUGH PROJECTION HAS BEEN ROUGHLY CORRECT.
True Equator and Equinox of Date For 2008
ASTEROID DATA QUOTED DIRECTLY FROM NASA Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. See http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/groups.html
On September 1, 2008 there were 977
potentially hazardous asteroids
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