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EARTH'S WOBBLE - POLAR MOTION: Spin Axis, Magnetic Poles
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WOBBLE
GALLERY |
EARTH MONITOR
Mouse arrow cursor points toward the latest location of Spin Axis
Image is from WobbleTracker software, drawn by MWM
Graph Scale is set to 1.0 arcseconds, Grid Size =
0.05 arcseconds
Time Domain as shown in upper left hand corner.
All movement is counter-clockwise.
This chart shows the location of the North Spin
Axis relative to the “map coordinates” which were established at the end of
the 19th century. A drift
of over 50 feet since 1900 in the circular track of Chandler’s Wobble is shown in this
chart. This drift is the primary cause
of the acceleration in Earth’s tectonic activity.
In order to “parallel” the way in which
geophysicists create and record the Earth’s polar location geo-reference
system, this graph shows the negative numbers opposite to the manner which
they are typically drawn in school books.
–X is shown on the top half, and this corresponds to the direction of
the Pacific Hemisphere. –Y is shown on
the right side and this corresponds to the Eurasian
Land Mass.
X= Longitude 0, which is the Greenwich Meridian which bisects through England; +Y= Longitude West 90, which bisects through the Great Lakes (North America).
[8-4-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION:
- no new news since 7-21, the spiral track of the wobble continues on its
progression more or less in a normal manner. One can see even more plainly
that the North (-) and South (+) track of the wobble on the X Axis describes
a bias of movement which is greater than the horizontal movement
(east-west). This bias displays the fact that the Southern Hemisphere
of the Earth is slightly heavier than the Northern Hemisphere. The
larger the "swing" of the wobble track, the more the bias can be easily
observed.
[7-28-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION:
- no new news since 7-21
[7-21-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION:
The wobble spiral continues to expand but we can now see is this latest 14
month spiral track that the wobble may be displaying a fairly definite
"sidedness" in the spin wobble. From the perspective of Greenwich
Meridian, which the 0 line of the X Axis (shown in bold), the Earth appears
to bob to the North and South (vertically on the graph) more easily than it
bobs to the East and West (horizontally on the graph). This parallels
the tendency we noticed very strongly in January 2006, which is shown by the
short North-South spike in the center of the spirals. PLEASE
NOTE HOWEVER, that this sidedness may be partly an illusion created by a
spiral track which is expanding now more rapidly than it has during the
prior two years. It may take another two years to resolve whether or
not this is an illusion or a real "lean" in the wobble.
[5-19-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION:
Not much new news. Only this: the current track of the North Spin (for
the past 14 month) demonstrates a small expansion than is more typical and
it also demonstrates an oblong (out of round) shape. It is as if the
wobble is a little squashed at roughly its 90 degree graph axis. The
slightly small size of the wobble's spiral track is within historical
variation but the somewhat oblong or perhaps elliptical shape is difficult
to compare with previous three-year wobble expansion phases.
[4-7-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION:
Again, no change from prior weeks. There remains
some apparent tendency to truncation of the spiral track on the Y Axis.
Movement up and down the X Axis appears slightly easier for the Earth's
crust than than movement on the Y Axis. This pattern we have been
observing since the wobble "freeze" of January 2005.
[2-18-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION:
The track now shows some outward expansion as one would expect.
[2-11-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION:
Polar Motion apparently is now deviating once
again from a normal track. What has been a smooth outward expansion
since March 2006 is now apparently too truncated to be called an
expansionary spiral. It is "retarded" and parallels far too closely
the spiral track of 14 months ago. It should be showing progressive
enlargement, but this is no longer evident. There are two possible
explanations. One is that this Seven Year Wobble Cycle will be smaller
than normal (which happens frequently). Another possible explanation
is that the Wobble is merely showing us that significant drift in the
average location of the center of the wobble has been and is still underway,
such that the spiral center is now drifting towards the left bottom of the
chart (down towards about Longitude West 70-80). This the Wobble has also
done before. A third possibility is that both factors are in play.
Stay tuned, the Wobble continues to be more dynamic than anyone previously
imagined.
[1-28-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION:
As reported January 27 in the "Pivot Point" Bulletin (see Yahoo Archives),
the Earth was apparently at tectonic standstill on Saturday/Sunday (almost 0
seismic activity 4+, ultra-low activity in the range of 2.5-4)) while the
Earth's tilted axis orientation (fixed on Polaris) began to recede from the
orbital Perihelion point
and thus begin the shift of the orientations of the Northern and Southern
Hemispheres toward the Sun. Otherwise, no significant change from previous reports. The Spiral Track of Earth's Wobble continues to
expand outward in a stable pattern.
As can be expected
(by looking at the history of the Wobble Track), the Earth's Wobble is
currently receiving a boost of energy from the Earth's Perihelion moment
with the Sun. Since the Earth is closer to the Sun at this moment, solar
gravity is tugging in phase slightly more strongly on the heavy side of the
Earth (the Southern Hemisphere). As a result the track of Polar Motion
is now clearly showing a marked acceleration in the outward, expansionary
movement of its spiral track. This is all normal.
The Spin Axis is currently located
in the longitude quadrant of the Russian Far East moving rapidly towards
Alaska..
NEW CHART RELEASE WHICH PROVES THAT POLAR
MOTION PHASES REGULATE EL NINO (and probably the other
climate oscillations in the Northern Atlantic and the Indian Oceans):
To see the chart Click Here!
Composed fresh for the revised edition of the Return of the Phoenix, a new
expanded chart shows the track of Earth's Wobble up and down the Greenwich
Meridian (called the X Axis of polar motion by geophysicists) for the period
1890-2006. For additional details go to
Wobble Almanac.
WORLD & REGIONAL WEATHER: Storm Fronts, Hurricanes, El Nino
& La Nina, Drought & Fire, Global Warming
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CLIMATE
GALLERY |
EARTH MONITOR
6-10 Day SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST - NORTH AMERICA
Click on image for larger view
source: NOAA National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/index.php
6-10 Day
TEMPERATURE FORECAST - NORTH AMERICA
Click on image for larger view
source: NOAA National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/index.php
90 Day
DROUGHT FORECAST - NORTH AMERICA
Click on image for larger view
source: NOAA National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/index.php
Click here for:
Weather Forecast For The Next 18 Months -
North America
U.S. Weather Service -
Experimental Forecasts
[5-5-08 ECB]
Click to these charts for the next
several seasons - the charts show expected temperatures and moisture
compared to average. I suspect for summer of 2008 the
forecasts will be close to the mark for the PSW and the western half
of North America. But I do not think they have El Nino in mind
and I suspect THAT will be roaring down the pike late Fall and
winter of 2009.
SUMMARY ASSESSMENT as of August 4
2008, about the same as prior week
IT CONTINUES ----
AS can now be seen in the Sea Surface Temperature Chart (below), the North
Pacific and the North Atlantic are mirroring each other in remarkable
symmetry. THE NORTH PACIFIC
IS BECOMING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE HIGH LATITUDES AND EL NINO IS
PROBABLY SLOWLY FORMING UP ALONG THE EQUATOR. Meanwhile the North
Atlantic Oscillation is MORE STRONGLY present while the Atlantic Equator is
about normal. These factors will decidedly form much of the weather dynamics
for the Summer months.
This is much like last year, only more so. The Jet
Streams and Air Mass flows resemble pretzels introducing chaos and strange
unpredictable extremes. I am very glad I am not writing actual weather
forecasts. For the most part the Northern Hemisphere through both
oceans is clearly warming enough to counter-act tropical gyre formation and
suck enough marine air straight north to strongly discourage hurricane
formation. Only in the Indian Ocean are tropical storm advisories
popping up regularly. These will smash in Myanmar-Bangladesh....I
suspect more BEEEG ones will strike that zone during the next few months.
This is a profound impact of the Global Warming Syndrome sans
Solar Ion stimulation. I predict that Solar Cycle MAX will expand the
atmosphere sufficiently to counteract this part of the Global Warming
Syndrome. This means that Pacific and Atlantic Hurricanes will remain
depressed, but picking up speed during the next two years, achieving a
return to continent wreckers during Solar Cycle MAX 24, perhaps in the years
2011-2015. In the meanwhile, Japan and Newfoundland will be the major
vector pulls for tropical storms and hurricanes which travel up
(respectively) the Marianas Islands and the eastern coast of North America.
Look for conditions to remain similar to
existing conditions in North America, with the Monsoon in the PSW remaining
productive of rain. More likely than not, Atlantic hurricane season
will remain lackluster. The warming of the California coastal water
implies a normalization of the California Valley-Sierra weather
pattern - most likely a hot, DRY Summer and Fall with typical summer fog and some occasional
thunderstorms.
THE EXTREMES IN
CYCLONES, TORNADOES, AND FLOODS PLAINLY AND
ABSOLUTELY ARE NOT A RESULT OF STIMULUS FROM THE SUN NOR NATURAL NOR
HUMAN-CAUSED CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. This can only by Global
Warming Syndrome, showing us what the new weather "normal" is becoming as
the Earth's oceans continue to gradually warm.
Hurricane and tornado season is still predicted by NOAA to be
modestly to substantially
greater than last year and April's forecast has already been upgraded to
forecast more storms. Super
storms are clearly on the way but the warm up of the North Atlantic
Oscillation, the Pacific Gyre Hot Spot, and emerging ENSO this year are
likely to mute them in North America. Most likely
Atlantic hurricane seasons will not become record-makers again until
2010, but as we just saw in Myanmar, another nasty punch or two this year is entirely possible. The result will be pretty much pure "Global Warming" syndrome,
mightily influenced throughout the Northern Hemisphere by the North
Central Pacific Gyre, with occasional peaking of storm intensity by
surges in Solar Activity (but Solar Activity looks like it is going to
be minor for the next few months).
The Ocean Climate Regimes (relative to
averages)
NEW PREDICTION TOOL BY NOAA PEOPLE - THEY ARE
GETTING MORE POWERFUL IN THE ART - EVEN IF THEIR PRESENTATION IS STILL A
LITTLE TOO OBSCURE FOR GENERAL READERS - MAY BE WORTH A LOOK:
[7-28-08] NOAA'S ENSO ASSESSMENT, linked below, IS
NOW FALLING BEHIND THE REAL CURVE - IT HASN'T BEEN UPDATED SINCE FEBRUARY.
AN UPDATE NEEDS TO BE POSTED SOON.
Click here
for NOAA's latest ENSO Assessment:
Weekly Update:
On
Monday the CPC updates in two different formats: a
PowerPoint and a
PDF presentation. They present the recent trends and
change, summaryize the current status and and give predictions of conditions
in the tropical Pacific related to the El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
cycle for the year ahead.
LA NINA - now gone probably for three
years.
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
[8-4-08 ECB]
Fast
warm-up in the NW Atlantic, NE Atlantic continues to lag.. Summer in Europe
will normalize for August but Newfoundland is likely to draw tropical
Atlantic weather its way.
.
NORTH PACIFIC GYRE HOTSPOT
[8-4-08 ECB]
Again,
BIGGER AND BADDER THAN EVER and
very much warmer than ever in the latitudes North 40 to 50, between
Longitude 180 and Kamchatka Peninsula. This is likely to drive a
warm-up in the Arctic as well as a dry Summer in western Alaska. Like the
Gyre did for the Midwestern floods during May/June, this huge patch will
likely have an increasing impact on North American weather. I am
still uncertain at the moment how this will shift the normal pattern.
[8-4-08 ECB]
EL NINO: The latest week period shows
a firming up but no expansion. May
not reach recognition stage by climatologists until late 2008. The green trend by Scripps is
probably the current reality.
[5-19-08 ECB]
NOAA GRAPH
PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT EL NINO:
Some 15 different
prediction models from various sources around the world are summarized
in this graph. El Nino and La Nina are technically now categorized
as Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) plus or minus 0.5 degrees C from an
averaged historical norm. Two predictors agree with the ECB that
El Nino may begin to set in this Summer (from July onwards) and two
others agree that El Nino may begin to set in this coming November. Five
others suggest that La Nina is still here and will remain virtually as
it is now through to the end of 2008.
Click on image for larger, clearer view
source: NOAA National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
see
ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION BY NOAA
Figure provided by the
International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18
April 2008).
THIS NOW LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR ANY PART
OF 2008
[5-5-08 ECB]
ECB PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT EL NINO:
It will onset during the latter part of
2008 and MAY become one of the strongest of record during the Winter of
2009.
It also probably will be a longer than normal El Nino. This is based
purely on the higher than ever tempo of earthquake and volcanic activity
around the world during 2006 and 2007 and during
April and May of 2008. The increased heat flux from
the East Pacific Rift will eventually make its way to the surface and
produce the typical El Nino hot Equator.
For More Information On Dynamics and Predictions Of The Ocean Climate
Regimes & El Nino / La Nina: GO TO THE
WEATHER/CLIMATE ALMANAC
Most likely a major factor in the formation of the next El Nino is the motion of the Pacific Ocean bottom.
An
acceleration of rifting (spreading of the Earth's crust) in the East Pacific
Rise portion of the Great Rift which snakes around the Earth at the bottoms
of the oceans has been underway during the first half of 2008. This
likely continues, as evidenced by increased volcanism in the Aleutians and
the southern tip of South America. The rifting uis likely releasing far more heat into the bottom of the
East Pacific than normal and this may be the "gating" phase which will
produce the next El Nino, which is likely to emerge into visibility during
the latter part of 2008 and last through the first half of 2009. Ironically,
then, the Great Quakes in Japan and China during May and June may be heralds of
record-breaking El Nino year soon to come.
GLOBAL WARMING SYNDROME:
Far more probable than not, the first half of 2007 has brought a serious
surge of heat through the Great Rifts in the bottom of the oceans.
It is likely that this is still continuing and it may continue throughout
2008. The
telling sign is the spurt of Great Rift quakes which come and go in waves.
These all indicate movements which marine geologists are nearly certain
indicate extensive magma dikes and lava flows in or very close to the Great
Rift Valleys. This activity during the first half of 2007 likely will feed a new round of heat into the oceanic climate
system during the next 36 months and thus over-all Global Warming will continue to surge
upwards. This pattern, as of January 08, may still be underway.
As of May, 2008, it is evident that
this activity has accelerated during the first several months of 2008.
IMPORTANT NOTE
AS OF MAY 5 2008: It is now apparent that the American continents,
especially North America, has been moving the past few months more than it
has for any similar length of time during many years. Related to this is
probably the acceleration of activity at the two antipodes of the East
Pacific portion of the Great Rift. On nearly mirror opposite sides of
the main directions of spread from the East Pacific Rift, namely the
Aleutians and the southern tip of South America (which collide head on with
the moving ocean bottom plates), tectonic activity also has been elevated
the past few months. This has taken the form of both earthquakes
(subduction thrusts) and volcanism (squeeze on the mantle). This has
been most recently shown by the major eruption of a long dormant volcano in
southern Chile This doubtless is an indicator of increased spreading in the
East Pacific Rift and thus increased magma rise and heat flow into the
bottom of the ocean. Similar increases in Class 4 quake activity
during recent months in the Arctic along the Siberian portion of the Great
Rift and most recently along the northern edge of Canada, suggest increased
rifting of the Arctic portion of the Great Rift . As in the East
Pacific, this will probably result in increased heat flow into the Arctic
Ocean. Both increases with accelerate the trend lines of Global
Warming and result in the greatest melt of Arctic Ice yet recorded this
Summer. The heat flow in the East Pacific may also produce a
record-breaking El Nino.
The increased heat energy in the climate system along the broad
middle of the Earth ( from the tropics which supplies the juice which powers the air
conditioner of your weather) is causing the flow of air more
rapidly in greater volumes into the north and south out of the
Equatorial zone. Warm air travels further to the North (or South)
and pushes increased cold air to flow out of the polar zones (your
cooling coils). The more Global Warming, the more intense and
stormy will be both Winter and Summer, the Winter cooler, the Summer
hotter, with more power in all storms. The primary consistent
barometer of all of this: the melting of the Arctic Ice.
SOURCE: NOAA
The key to dynamic change is the bottom
graph which displays the "out of average" readings. This allows us to
quickly spot the extremes which are forming up in the various oceanic
climate regimes. It is a lot cheaper and easier than using
supercomputers.
Seasonal Color Map Graphs - Predict Rain and Temperatures For North
America For The Year Ahead – Science Is Finally Catching Up With Farmer’s
Almanac. Go here to get updated on the likely rain and temperature
forecast. This one currently on the web is essentially based on a La
Nina forecast.
HURRICANES
USN Advisories This Date
I use NASA for Atlantic, USN
for the remainder of the world
From:
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php
Most items in this list are
clickable
Current Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean* Tropical Systems:
* Includes Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems:
No Current Tropical Cyclone Warnings.
Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems:
No Current Tropical Cyclone Warnings.
Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories:
[8-4-08] Tropical Storm
Edouard - temperature tea-leaves suggest it will probably not achieve
hurricane status.
[7-28-08] SO FAR, NOAA'S
Hurricane Season forecast is about as accurate (not) as last year's.
Conditions do not seem favorable for the huge gyre formations to build up
rapid wind flows abound the vortices. PART OF THE REASON IS SIMPLE.
THIS IS SOLAR MIN AND WE ARE SEEING, IN A MULTI-YEAR DEMONSTRATION, THAT THE
IONIC INFLUENCE PRODUCED BY SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING THE SUN'S ACTIVE YEARS
DOES INDEED PLAY A ROLE IN FORMING THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. We
already know this to be true about human political and economic affairs, in
which we can see the depression of mood and activity all around us, and we
can also see it in the lack of significant hurricane activity. Both
humanity and the Earth are in the "morning after" phase of the wild party
last night (last cycle peak).
NOAA'S Hurricane Season Forecasts (click for latest updates)
[4-7-08] FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) -
Hurricane forecaster William Gray called Friday for seven Atlantic
hurricanes, three of them major, during the 2008 season.
Gray's team at Colorado State University issued the prediction six months
before the June-November season begins.
The preliminary forecast calls for a total of 13 named storms in the
Atlantic. It also says it is probable that at least one major hurricane will
hit the U.S. coastline.
"Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that
the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle," Gray said. "This
active cycle is expected to continue at least for another decade or two."
Gray has been forecasting hurricanes for more than two decades, and his
predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others in
coastal areas.
The predictions are not always on the mark. Gray initially forecast nine
hurricanes for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, and later lowered that
prediction to eight. Only six hurricanes formed.
Cooler water and the presence of wind shears in the central tropical
Atlantic explained the difference, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's
team and the lead author of the forecast. Cooler temperatures inhibit
hurricane formation, and wind shears can tear developing hurricanes apart.
The team also predicted nine hurricanes for the 2006 season, when only five
developed. Klotzbach said that in seven of the past nine years, the team
correctly predicted whether the season would be above or below average.
FROM 2007 - THE VERDICT IS IN: I think that we are we seeing that it is hard to get up a decent hurricane without some
sunspot stimulation. With the virtual death of the hurricane season
at more or less Solar Minima during 2007, I think we have the
verdict now in. This is a very interesting
development.
NOAA EAST PACIFIC
Latest Facts & Forecast Updated every 12 hours
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml
NOAA WEST ATLANTIC
Latest Facts & Forecast Updated every 12 hours
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
FROM THIS, A PREDICTION FOR THE 2008
& 2009 SEASONS: Despite the nasty tornado onset during
early 2008, the atmosphere will begin to settle down during late Spring
and tornado activity will return to more normal levels. Hurricane
activity in the Atlantic Basin will be lower than average, on par with
2007. Stronger storms and more of them will begin to be seen
in 2009 and reach a crescendo in 2010/2011.
GEOTECTONIC ACTIVITY: Volcanoes, Shape Shifting, Earthquakes
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GEOTECTONIC
GALLERY
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EARTH MONITOR
Al, you there? Here is the primary signal of the tectonic motion
which is creating Global Warming.
EARTHQUAKE
TRENDS & THE CHANGE IN THE EARTH
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QUAKE GALLERY
|
EARTH MONITOR
Click here to
see the
latest graphs of the
Global Quake Trend
(fourfold increase during the past 30 years)
EARTHQUAKES CURRENT:
[8-4-08 ECB]
Magnitudes are running
well within normal averages for Class 4+ world quakes but frequency is
falling rapidly. As predicted, quakes surged mildly during the front end of
this passing Syzygy and they have now normalized below average frequency. No interesting patterns
to observe.
August 4, 2008, IRIS Chart Class
4+
CLICK ON IMAGES
FOR EXPANDED VIEW; red indicates quakes 4+ during the previous 24 hours,
orange during previous day, yellow during the previous two weeks, violet
during the past 15 years
SEISMIC MONITOR BY IRIS
Best to go here below and click for the latest dynamic
page with explanations of the symbols and large displays of regions of the
Earth (these are "at the moment" charts):
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
Last
Seven Days - for earthquakes worldwide magnitude 4.0 plus and U.S.
territorial magnitude 2.5 plus; for source list see
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
The East Pacific Rift is known to
be separating at a faster rate than any other zone but generally the rifting
produces only small quakes, under Class 3. Thus they do not show up on
anyone's charts because no one is paying any attention to such small quakes.
The same is true of all of the Great Rift, but the Atlantic portion also
produces many more Class 4+ quakes during the course of any given year than
the other zones. No one seems to know why.
CONCERNING DATABASE FILES
OF QUAKE CATALOGS:
The EC Bulletins is now using ONLY THE "ANSS COMPOSITE QUAKE CATALOG" for stats - The ANSS is the evolved transformation of the CSSC system based
at Berkeley California where the geophysicists have been collecting data
since the beginning of the seismograph technology. The USGS databases
are derived from the ANSS catalogs and the IRIS group above is attempting to
provide a scientific display network for access to current information about
current earthquakes (for the last 30 days).
SHAPESHIFTING:
ACTIVITY LAST YEAR WAS VERY
HIGH.
Shape-shifter
quakes indicate the spreading of the Rift Valley, the creation of new crust
through magma dikes which fills in the cracks of the Great Rift, and hence
the inevitable forcing of the Earth’s crust to change its shape to adjust for
the new crust. Most subduction zone
quakes (such as in the Pacific Rim of Fire) probably occur as a consequence of
the shape-shifting of the Earth.
The outlines of the tectonic plates and the Great Rift can be be seen
in the violet color in this chart above. For a chart
of Earth’s Tectonic Plates, go to:
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/html/plates.html
M 5+ earthquakes, past 7 days
RSS 2.0
CAP
The USGS RSS Feed, which is constantly changing
its content, can be accessed at:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/eqs7day-M5.xml
Other Datafeeds
On Quakes:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/
TECTONIC MOTION QUAKE FORECAST:
Forecasts are based on
Syzygy Windows which can be seen in the Lunar Ephemeris Charts. Go to
the Moon section to select your chart.
Occasionally the chart information is
supplemented with data from Earth Sensitives, who include some humans and
animals. For Earth Sensitive information, go to
PamWiseman.com For other
Syzygy-type forecasts and a portal to other valuable approaches, see
Syzygyjob.com
VOLCANISM
Links
to: ALMANAC |
VOLCANO GALLERY |
EARTH MONITOR
Krakatau In
Vigorous Eruption November, 2007
(also popularly known as Krakatoa)
[8-4-08 ECB]
The decline in world volcanism continues. Despite continuing eruptions
in the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire (one in the Kuriles, three on Kamchatka Peninsula
and also at Okmok and Cleveland in the Aleutians) most volcanoes seem lees
active this week. Many reports have not been updated for at least a week.
Our herald Etna on Sicily is still mildly active while Kilauea
continues muting its eruption. Some of the Carib
Plate volcanoes appear to be maintaining their pace and Soufriere Hills on Montserrat in the Caribbean
has flared up while Popo and Colima begin to snore.
Currently the Active List
is at 34 and the
Restless List is at 3 with the Alert List
at 78. These numbers are up slightly over last week, but the over-all
impression is of less activity, some of these are now barely active. The
most active erupters remain virtually the same,
Erebus,
Stromboli, Yasur, Fuego, and Arenal continue their long ever-lasting eruptions.
(These typically produce lava lakes, lava fountains, and strombolian
explosions).
Click here for more details on
this Volcano Season.
THIS APPEARS NOW TO BE TRUE:
[6-23-08 ECB]
MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT, this year's peak volcano activity likely has formed up
with this Full Moon. Expect it to fall off now until November 08 in synchronicity with the lunar cycles. SO
FAR THIS PREDICTION IS PRECISELY ON TRACK. January's Volcano prediction looks pretty good:
"In accordance with past wobble cycles
and the general average trend of increase in volcanic activity, I expect
that volcanic activity during 2008 will be about the same as 2007 or
abate
by a small percentage."
Forecast: THIS
APPEARS NOW TO BE TRUE: [1-7-08 ECB] In accordance with past wobble cycles
and the general average trend of increase in volcanic activity, I expect
that volcanic activity during 2008 will be about the same as 2007 or abate
by a small percentage.
SUMMARY DATA FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL VOLCANO RESEARCH CENTER:
General Note:
INTLVRC reached a 100% rate of accuracy in
predicting eruptions, the first time in their history since 1989. They
also documented 69 eruptions during 2005 and 2006, which most likely defines
a peak plateau. I expect to see even higher in 2007 (based on Wobble
parallels) and then another plateauing for a couple years. The
year 2007 began with higher than normal numbers for "alert list"
volcanoes. The list generally begins the year in the range of 60
but it began the year at 71 for 2007, a record, and was at 73 just eight days
into the year. Activity going into 2008 is apparently about 10% lower.
Conclusions
Independently Reached From Data At The International Volcano
Research Center
(INTLVRC)
http://www.intlvrc.org/
In
early January the INTLVRC resets their counts. They carried forward
into 2007
16 volcanoes
on
the active list . Only 13 were carried forward as active into 2008 but
within two weeks time the active list had swelled up to 20 .
Apparently the reset was too severe and a base number of 20 is more likely
to be a better number.
Thus, the year probably began at
about the same level as did 2007 or perhaps a little higher.
These are volcanoes which more
or less are continuously erupting.
[8-4-08]
Alert List = 78
[8-4-08]
Restless List =3
[8-4-08]
Active List = 34
PREDICTING
ERUPTIONS:
Side Note on INTLVRC's eruption prediction program.
ERUPTION Pro 10.6
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