For additional information on the influence of Sunspots and Solar Activity Cycles, go to the Earth Changes Solar Gallery.  (this link not active yet).

CLARIFICATIONS OF TWO MAJOR CONFUSIONS ABOUT THIS SOLAR CYCLE 24 WHICH ARE ON THE IWAY DURING MID 2008:  Some people are remarking about HOW UNUSUAL IS the low level of Solar Activity. Some even have confused the cycle to suppose that the Sun is supposed to be in its MAX condition during the later part of this year.  THERE IS NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL OF SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING THE LAST 18 MONTHS.  WE ARE IN SOLAR MIN, A CONDITION OF VERY LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY WHICH RE-OCCURS EVERY 7-13 YEARS, GENERALLY ABOUT EVERY 11 YEARS.   Since the cycle varies in length, there is nothing unusual about any current timing factor. Sometime during 2009 the Sun will most likely begin a vigorous ascent to its MAX levels of activity, which it will likely reach sometime 2011-2013.  However, even this projection is based on "average" expectations.  It could remain low until 2010 and not reach the next MAX until 2013. Another confusion surrounds the likely size of the next Solar MAX.  Using advanced physics modeling, some people expect a much larger than normal Sunspot MAX, others using short term statistics expect a smaller MAX than usual.  Reality is that the PEAK OF SOLAR CYCLE 24 MAX IS PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE TO CALL ON scientific grounds (if one knew all that humans knew on the topic). BUT, my personal GUESS from the cycle stats and rhythms of the past two hundred years is that the next cycle will be larger than normal.  From the point of view of human politics, it would be a good thing if the next cycle is lower than average.  Such an event most likely would lay to rest definitively the theory of greenhouse gases since Global Warming will continue to trend upward as a result of the current round of accelerated tectonic warming of the world ocean (heat flux through the Great Rift).

Visible Sun Of August 4, 2008:  Credit: SOHO/MDI

[8-4-08 ECB]  Sunspots have been zip all week, now  for two weeks running.  Solar Flux is about flat line at 66.  As has been true for most the past three months, there has been and is almost no other Solar Activity of note during this time.   A coronal hole has appeared but there is no solar wind stream at this time, nor much in the way of even minor magnetic disturbances.  NASA advisories for Solar Activity are at low levels but predicts August 12 may bring a solar wind to the Earth..  The Planetary A Magnetic Index (upper atmosphere field strength) is close to zero. . The Fluxgate Monitor hovers near zero during the past 24 hours. Bolder Sunspot Peaks might still emerge any day now for the planetary alignments during August 7 - August 21 but the Sun remains  too inert to predict very much at all.  Probably at least a small spike will appear about August 15.  See Planetary Alignments for longer range forecast. 

[8-4-08 ECB]  NASA reports no Sunspots on the far side of the Sun.   [Holographic image credit: SOHO/MDI] 

[7-21-08 ECB]  Quick Solar Activity Forecast From Planetary Alignments:   We are clearly still very much in Solar Min and accordingly you must ascribe the extremes in weather and climate patterns at this time to the emerging global warming syndrome. Don't expect much activity from the sun this year, which is a very very good thing.  Human wars generally do not commence during the solar min phase.  They generally begin to roll as the solar cycle reaches maximum intensity.  The next intense peak period will begin approximately 2011-2013.

IMPORTANT NOTE WHICH MOST PEOPLE STILL ARE NOT GETTING:

The Sun is at minimum levels of activity - it is at its lowest ebb since 1997.  Thus the climate patterns this year have nothing to do with solar cycles and are entirely related to global warming phenomenon produced by tectonic causes. MAY'S EXTREMES IN CYCLONES (Myanmar) AND TORNADOES (N.A. Midwest & Plains) PLAINLY AND ABSOLUTELY IS NOT A RESULT OF STIMULUS FROM THE SUN NOR NATURAL NOR HUMAN-CAUSED CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.  The same thing can be definitively argued for the rapid acceleration of the annual melt in the Arctic. A reduction in solar output means that the reflected energy in the atmosphere IS LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS YEARS.  Since the continents cannot store heat, the heat MUST be coming from the oceans, which has clearly been demonstrated TO BE RISING FROM THE DEPTHS.   Thus this can only be "Tectonic Global Warming Syndrome", which shows us what the new weather "normal" is becoming as the Earth's oceans continue to gradually warm from tectonic causes.  The Sun and the atmosphere and carbon dioxide HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE TREND.

With this in mind, we can watch what happens during the remainder of 2008 if  surges in  Solar Activity bring higher Sunspot Counts, increased solar wind streams, and increased atmospheric disturbances.  A noticeable rise in Solar output, however, will most likely not begin until late in 2009.

Alvestad Solar Activity  Graph As Of August 3, 2008

click on this graph to view it in full size

graph courtesy Jan Alvestad http://www.dxlc.com/solar/
Latest Graph: http://www.dxlc.com/solar/images/solar.gif
Daily Sunspot Numbers Are ISSN: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt

Sunspot Count Chart:  In this chart above the black line is the Solar Flux as measured in orbit near the Earth, the red line is the Sunspot Number and the blue line is a measure of the strength of the magnetic field in the Earth’s high atmosphere (called the Planetary A Index).

Click here for NOAA Sunspot Table For Past 30 Days

[8-4-08 ECB] NASA reports a coronal hole in the Sun's atmosphere.  NASA predicts a 1%  probability of solar flares (X to M, respectively) during the next 48 hours. NASA  predicts there is a 1% to 10% probability (the lowest numbers used by NASA) of major magnetic disturbances in the high latitudes during the next 48 hours. Pix Credit: NOAA

BREAKING NEWS ABOUT PASSAGE TO SOLAR CYCLE 24:

The Solar Activity numbers for July 08 may end up embarrassing most solar analysts, including the EC Bulletin.  The latest numbers computed by Jan Alvestad, using ISSN numbers, report that July's average flux and ISSN sunspot count Monthly Daily Average is the lowest since the beginning of Sunspot Cycle 23. Using the Statistical Model for inferring the beginning of Solar Cycles,  this may mean that WE MAY STILL BE IN SOLAR CYCLE 23.  BUT I am not certain about the accuracy of her numbers, since the NASA daily numbers which I use are supposed to be ISSN numbers and if you average out July you will come to an average slightly above 1.  PART OF THE PROBLEM may be that NASA daily numbers are not "smoothed", while the ISSN montly numbers are "smoothed" to create an "average" trend or trajectory of activity for the year.  I am going to do a detailed look at the Sunspot Cycle Monthly and Daily averages for the past 50 years during the MIN periods to see what comparables may tell us.  I have been relying on scientific circles related to solar study to clue me into what is happening, but I may have to abandon this approach and use only the comparables I personally find to infer what is going to happen next.

[2-4-08 ECB] Passage To Solar Cycle 24:    Solar Cycle 23 never gave us a  a full 30 days of 0 Sunspots but the data compiled below by Alvestad makes it fairly clear that October 2007 was the MIN month and Solar Cycle 24 began, as we pointed out here, more or less in November 2007.  (This would be according to a traditional statistical method of determining the transition point.  A newer magnetic polarity model is now being used as well and this method points toward January 2008 as the first month of Cycle 24).