Earth Changes Bulletin Weekly Update

COSMIC WATCH

The Changes In
Our Sacred Body
Without these things we die, thus these things compose our true body.

Galaxy - Solar Activity - Planets - Moon - Asteroids - Meteors & Comets

GALACTIC PHENOMENON: Coming soon

Links to: ALMANAC | GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR

Have not started this watch yet....

SOLAR ACTIVITY
Solar Storms, Sunspots, Ionic Wind, Magnetic Disturbances

Links to: ALMANAC | SOLAR GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR

[8-18-08 ECB] Coverage of solar activity is revised as of this date. Longer range cycle data is included to provide a better perspective, daily/weekly update is below Cycle 23 trend lines. IMPORTANT CONCLUSIONS AS OF THIS DATE: In accordance with a more traditional statistical method of analyzing Solar Cycles, the EC Bulletin concludes that

Solar Cycle 23 has not ended but may be ending now - statistical inference will not confirm this until 3-6 months down the road.

Solar Cycle 23 is significantly longer than the past three previous cycles, but NOT out of overall statistical norms.

Solar Cycle 24 may be another relatively small Solar Cycle; based on review of 300 years of graphs the approximate size of the next cycle is likely to be about the size of Solar Cycle 23 or perhaps a little smaller. However, there are many ways to interpret historical solar cycles, the only way we can be entirely certain is in retrospect. Net Solar Activity gives the distinct appearance of large cycles induced by the "cosmic frame" which both interfere and and energize Solar Activity cycles. Trends appear and then disappear, producing in the final analysis a history which contains some chaos

The ELECTROMAGNETIC DYNAMIC PARADIGM for defining solar cycles is currently lost in the FLUX, in a matter of speaking. This new paradigm forecast Solar Cycle 24 as having begun in late 2007 or January 2008. Unfortunately it is now strongly possible that this will produce a variance of 9-12 months from the traditional 13 month weighted average (smoothed) method of defining the SOLAR MIN. For purposes of comparative study of the impact of Solar Activity on Earth and its parts, this much variation is not good. Thus it is best to continue to use the traditional statistical method for marking the cycles.

[8-18-08 ECB] ASSESSMENT OF IMPLICATIONS OF THESE CONCLUSIONS: The drawn out length of Solar MIN and a smaller Cycle 24 will promote a trend of Global Cooling, as some are speculating. BUT this factor may be overshadowed by tectonic-induced Global Warming. Thus Global Warming may continue. If so, it will be apparent to nearly all scientists by about 2013/14 that Global Warming is an activity of the Earth, not of the Sun nor of reflected heat induced by human-created so-called greenhouse gases. Having said this, we cannot predict with precision either the amount of tectonic Global Warming nor the amount of Solar Activity during the next several years, hence the future is by no means certain as of knowledge of 8-18-08

CURRENT SOLAR MIN PHASE
click on image to call up source with expanded version and text

source: SIDC, Brussels; http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfjmms.html

[8-18-08 ECB] Current Solar Activity for August 08 corresponds very well with this chart above. We have had almost an entire month of 0 Sunspots. This follows on July which averaged only 0.5 Sunspots per day. This suggests strongly that Solar MIN is occurring right now, rather than 10 to 8 months ago.

Alvestad Solar Activity Graph As Of August 17, 2008

click on this graph to view it in full size

In this chart the black line is the Solar Flux as measured in orbit near the Earth, the red line is the Sunspot Number and the blue line is a measure of the strength of the magnetic field in the Earth’s high atmosphere (called the Planetary A Index).

Note that Alvestad is using the historical statistical method and is still treating the current activity of the Sun as a part of Solar Cycle 23.

graph courtesy Jan Alvestad http://www.dxlc.com/solar/
Latest Graph: http://www.dxlc.com/solar/images/solar.gif
Daily Sunspot Numbers Are ISSN: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt

HISTORY OF SOLAR CYCLE 23 & PROJECTED TRANSITION TO CYCLE 24
click on image to call up source with expanded version and text

This is a fuller, long-term version of the SIDC chart above

source: SIDC, Brussels; http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfjmms.html

[8-18-08 ECB] REVISED STANDING PREDICTION FOR SOLAR CYCLE 24: Previous coverage in the EC Bulletin for the past 12 months was not correct. It covered the new electrodynamic paradigm of the Sun and it was well worth working with it to study possible better methods of observing solar behavior. After six months of uncertainties which have been noted here, this coverage is now abandoned. Accordingly, using the older statistical methods, Solar Cycle 24 is most likely to begin at any time from September 08 to January 09. The year 2008 likely will be the MIN year, August 08 may be the MIN month. Solar Cycle 24 activity may peak during 2012-2016. As solar activity gradually increases, both environmental dynamics and human behavior and emotionalism will shift into a more rapid flux of activity and reactivity. Solar Cycle 23 engendered deep, bitter polarizations in the world, especially in Palestine, the Middle East, and vis a vis the United States, both internationally and domestically. Rather than resolve divisions and conflict, humans accentuated them during this last Solar Cycle. Accordingly, during the coming cycle human reactivity and tendency to fear and violence will become greater and could easily match the worst episodes in human history. Human affairs will be accompanied by continued Global Warming and extreme weather patterns in climate, cyclones, tornadoes, ocean storm-fronts, flooding, and drought conditions, which are made all the more extreme under the ionic influence of the once-again active Sun which is producing major Solar Storms, Flares, and Ionic Wind Gusts. Under this growing pressure, which will reach its heights in about 2012-2016, both the terrestrial environment and human societies will be subject to immense dynamic flux which will alter both the greater expanse of the Earth as well as the nations and the affairs of humans. Global Warming will accelerate more rapidly, mass migrations will become more frequent, more agriculture and oceanic food sources will fail, more nations will collapse (as in Africa), and the general level of violence will increase in many areas. The exceptionally strong internal polarization in the U.S. against the Cabal of banksters and their oil-soaked Junta, and as well the antagonistic international polarization against the U.S., likely will be resolved by acceleration of a chronic "half-collapse" of the current economic and political system in the U.S. This period will be marked by paralysis of politics and a chaotic period of increased repression and rebellion which gradually destroys the power of Federal agencies which have usurped far too much illegal (unconstitutional) power. Likely the period will also spawn many concerted efforts to change major aspects of the constitution of the U.S. and the structure of its government. In fact, these movements have already begun and are very likely to grow, perhaps reaching a peak in about 2012. Increased international militarism may be attempted by intellectually and morally bankrupt Zionazi puppetmasters, cliques, and agit-prop organizations who manipulate and strongly influence nearly all institutions in the U.S. East Coast under the guise of "rational" globalism. These attempts may be and probably will be made in various guises regardless of which political party "wins" the November 08 national U.S. elections. Likely, however, these efforts will end in greater failure and bankruptcy of the U.S. and virtual abandonment U.S. militarism by an exhausted citizenry.

For additional information on the influence of Sunspots and Solar Activity Cycles, go to the Earth Changes Solar Gallery. (this link not active yet).

Visible Sun Of August 18, 2008: Credit: SOHO/MDI

[8-18-08 ECB] Sunspots have been zip all four weeks running. Actually, with the exception of a brief rise in Solar Activity 30 days ago which persisted for only three days, the Sun has been flat line ZIP for nearly two months. Solar Flux is also flat line at about 66. A coronal hole has appeared and the Earth will likely be in its solar wind stream from August 18. NASA expects it to produce some magnetic disturbances in the Earth's upper atmosphere and these probabilities are about as high as NASA ever predicts: 50% in high latitudes. Auroras are advised to be widely visible for the next few days. The Planetary A Magnetic Index (upper atmosphere field strength) remains low at about 5 but this should go up very soon, perhaps even into the 30's as a result of the solar wind stream. . Alaska's Fluxgate Monitor (U. of A.) shows a significant disturbance during the past 24 hours. Bolder Sunspot Peaks might still emerge any day now for the current crop of planetary alignments through to August 21 but the Sun remains too inert to predict very much at all. An anticipated spike on or about August 15 failed to emerge. See Planetary Alignments for longer range forecast.

[8-11-08 ECB] NASA reports no Sunspots on the far side of the Sun. [Holographic image credit: SOHO/MDI]

[7-21-08 ECB] Quick Solar Activity Forecast From Planetary Alignments: We are clearly still very much in Solar Min and accordingly you must ascribe the extremes in weather and climate patterns at this time to the emerging global warming syndrome. Don't expect much activity from the sun this year, which is a very very good thing. Human wars generally do not commence during the solar min phase. They generally begin to roll as the solar cycle reaches maximum intensity. The next intense peak period will begin approximately 2012-2013.

Click here for NOAA Sunspot Table For Past 30 Days

Pix of coronal holes [8-18-08 ECB] NASA AURORA WATCH: "High latitude sky watchers, be alert for auroras tonight. Earth is entering a solar wind stream, and the encounter could spark geomagnetic storms." NASA reports a coronal hole in the Sun's atmosphere. NASA predicts a 1% probability of solar flares (X to M, respectively) during the next 48 hours. NASA predicts there is a 10% to 50% probability of major magnetic disturbances in the high latitudes during the next 48 hours. Pix Credit: NOAA

MAGNETIC DISTURBANCES
(As Shown By Fluxgate Monitor at the University of Alaska )

[8-18-08 ECB] Fluxgate Monitor shows a strong tempest on the solar wind during the last 24 hours. Conditions are currently very unpredictable and they could become unstable and perturbed at any time during the next week.. (Always keep in mind that even during a Solar Min period, intense X class flares and CME's occasionally occur and produce intense magnetic storms in the atmosphere.)

CLICK ON GRAPH FOR EXPANDED VIEW

[8-18-08 ECB] Passage To Solar Cycle 24:

Month	Average solar flux at Earth	International sunspot number	Smoothed sunspot number
2007.09	67.1	2.4	(6.7 predicted, +0.0)
2007.10	67.4	0.9	(7.2 predicted, +0.5)
2007.11	69.6	1.7	(7.8 predicted, +0.6)
2007.12	78.5	10.1	(8.1 predicted, +0.3)
2008.01	74.3	3.4	(7.6 predicted, +0.5)
2008.02	71.1	2.1	(7.9 predicted, +0.5)
2008.03	72.9	9.3	(9.4 predicted, +0.5)
2008.04	70.2	2.9	(7.8 predicted, +1.4)
2008.05	68.4	2.9	(7.9 predicted, +1.4)
2008.06	65.8	3.1	(7.3 predicted, +1.1)
2008.07	65.7	0.5	(6.9 predicted, +1.0)

source: http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

The latest numbers computed by Jan Alvestad, using ISSN numbers, report that July's average flux and ISSN sunspot count Monthly Daily Average is the lowest since the beginning of Sunspot Cycle 23. Using the Statistical Model for inferring the beginning of Solar Cycles, this may mean that WE MAY STILL BE IN SOLAR CYCLE 23.

HISTORY OF SOLAR CYCLES a la BRUSSELS SIDC
click on image to call up expandable version, then click on it again for full screen

source: SIDC, Brussels; http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfaml.html

TO COMPARE THE LAST THREE SOLAR CYCLES SUPERIMPOSED ON EACH OTHER, CLICK HERE. As can be seen, there is nothing exact about the Sunspot Cycle. Length varies and so does the numbers of events and the energy released.

HATHAWAY ELECTROMAGNETIC PREDICTION MODEL

For current, critical information about the past few cycles and Sunspot Cycle 24, click here. NASA MORE OR LESS STILL AGREES THAT SOLAR CYCLE 24 HAS BEGUN. For more details, go to Almanac: Cycles of the Sun

source: NASA, http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/28mar_oldcycle.htm

NOTES ON SOLAR CYCLES, ACTIVITY, WEATHER:

CLARIFICATIONS OF TWO MAJOR CONFUSIONS ABOUT THIS SOLAR CYCLE 24 WHICH ARE ON THE IWAY DURING MID 2008: Some people are remarking about HOW UNUSUAL IS the low level of Solar Activity. Some even have confused the cycle to suppose that the Sun is supposed to be in its MAX condition during the later part of this year. THERE IS NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL OF SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING THE LAST 18 MONTHS. WE ARE IN SOLAR MIN, A CONDITION OF VERY LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY WHICH RE-OCCURS EVERY 7-13 YEARS, GENERALLY ABOUT EVERY 11 YEARS. Since the cycle varies in length, there is nothing unusual about any current timing factor. Sometime during 2009 the Sun will most likely begin a vigorous ascent to its MAX levels of activity, which it will likely reach sometime 2011-2013. However, even this projection is based on "average" expectations. It could remain low until 2010 and not reach the next MAX until 2013. Another confusion surrounds the likely size of the next Solar MAX. Using advanced physics modeling, some people expect a much larger than normal Sunspot MAX, others using short term statistics expect a smaller MAX than usual. Reality is that the PEAK OF SOLAR CYCLE 24 MAX IS PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE TO CALL ON scientific grounds (if one knew all that humans knew on the topic). BUT, my personal GUESS from the cycle stats and rhythms of the past two hundred years is that the next cycle will be larger than normal. From the point of view of human politics, it would be a good thing if the next cycle is lower than average. Such an event most likely would lay to rest definitively the theory of greenhouse gases since Global Warming will continue to trend upward as a result of the current round of accelerated tectonic warming of the world ocean (heat flux through the Great Rift).

IMPORTANT NOTE WHICH MOST PEOPLE STILL ARE NOT GETTING:

The Sun is at minimum levels of activity - it is at its lowest ebb since 1997. Thus the climate patterns this year have nothing to do with solar cycles and are entirely related to global warming phenomenon produced by tectonic causes. MAY'S EXTREMES IN CYCLONES (Myanmar) AND TORNADOES (N.A. Midwest & Plains) PLAINLY AND ABSOLUTELY IS NOT A RESULT OF STIMULUS FROM THE SUN NOR NATURAL NOR HUMAN-CAUSED CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. The same thing can be definitively argued for the rapid acceleration of the annual melt in the Arctic. A reduction in solar output means that the reflected energy in the atmosphere IS LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS YEARS. Since the continents cannot store heat, the heat MUST be coming from the oceans, which has clearly been demonstrated TO BE RISING FROM THE DEPTHS. Thus this can only be "Tectonic Global Warming Syndrome", which shows us what the new weather "normal" is becoming as the Earth's oceans continue to gradually warm from tectonic causes. The Sun and the atmosphere and carbon dioxide HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE TREND.

With this in mind, we can watch what happens during the remainder of 2008 if surges in Solar Activity bring higher Sunspot Counts, increased solar wind streams, and increased atmospheric disturbances. A noticeable rise in Solar output, however, will most likely not begin until late in 2009.

The Planets of the Horos Sun
(in the Fourth Age of Human Memory)

PLANETARY ACTIVITY: Skywatching, Planet Alignments, Moon, Asteroids

The Inner Four Planets set inside the ring of the asteroid belt and the orbit of Jupiter. Each point of light is an actual representation of a planet, asteroid, or comet (plus the Sun of course), set within a true scale of distance as of April 1. The positions of all numbered asteroids and all numbered comets in JPL's small-body database are shown (as of April 1, 2007 ). Asteroids are yellow dots, comets are the pale blurry smudges. We are looking down on the Solar System, overlooking the "North Pole" of the Earth. As can be seen, our Solar System is a pretty busy place.

Courtesy Jet Propulsion Lab
Inner Solar System Orbit Diagrams
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/?ss_inner

NIGHT SKY FOR August 18, 2008 from Hopiland: Click for full screen sky map

IMAGE PRODUCED BY MICA, software & data from the JPL & U.S. Naval Observatory

If you want to learn how to follow the stars at night and get deeper into the cosmic scene of the planetary alignments, how the solar system actually works, and so forth, start using this. It is centered for 4 AM Greenwich Tuesdays (the map is changed for each weekly update) for Arizona Mountain Time (no daylight savings- 9 pm Monday evening) at 2000 meter elevation on approximately Black Mesa, Hopi Land. This projection is produced by U.S. Navy Observatory MICA software and Ephemeris (Ephemeris is maintained on line by JPL). It is more or less the world standard of algorithms for precisely tracking the cosmos and the software is such a snap to use to create powerful results, I cannot resist using it. With this you can stand on the bridge of a vessel at sea and navigate like they used to do (but no longer, its all satellite positioning now, but old habits die not at all in the navies of the world). Hopi Land was selected as the focal point because this provides the same approximate night sky to New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and California (with a little time delay). Sorry, you folks in the Pacific Northwest will not be able to use this very well, you need your own projection. As a rough and ready make-do, just face the South and look for the relevant items about 10 to 20 degrees lower than indicated in the chart. Like California, expect events in the chart to be one hour earlier than your time.

PLANET WATCH:

[8-18-2008] In the chart above you can notice that all the outer planets except Saturn are neatly arranged in the zodiac belt. The Moon is conjunct with Uranus, but of course you cannot see Uranus with the naked eye. Nor are you able to see Pluto and Neptune, only Jupiter can be seen by the naked eye. It is shines so brightly you cannot miss it nor confuse it with the stars but you could mistake it for a jetliner with its landing lights on. Pick the brightest light in the southern sky about one to two hours after sunset and you will see it. See if you can find Arcturus, in the Mid-heavens halfway between the center point and the western horizon. It also is hard to mistake for the others, it is so bright. In fact, after Sunset, the first point of light you will see is Jupiter, the second point of light is Arcturus. Arcturus was claimed by Edgar Cayce to be the Sun of our Sun. If so, its gravity field is a determinant of how the Earth's orbit resonates in our Solar System. When Arcturus and our Sun each year are close to being in a straight line, vis a vis the Earth, the Earth is close to its orbital Perihelion. It would be interesting to see how the other planetary orbits resonate with Arcturus. So much to do, so much to do, never enough time.

PLANET ALIGNMENTS:

Links to: ALMANAC | COSMIC GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR

SOLAR SYSTEM FORECAST:

For a listing of all planetary alignments and charts for 2008, click onto the 2008 Alignment Almanac. Sunspot and solar activity should peak generally 8 to 3 days in advance of these alignment dates but keep in mind that some times the solar peak comes in on the day or the day after the alignment.

[8-18-08] FOR AUGUST

Gven the tepid response of the Sun so far during 2008 to most planetary alignments, perhaps the most we can expect is about as much as the past few peaks during early 2008, which have generally been about 10-15. Beyond this weak notion, it is very difficult to predict much during this transistion stage between Solar Cycle 23 and 24.

August 23, 2008 - Venus | Mars

[8-4-08] - THE SUN MAY NOT RESPOND TO AUGUST'S SERIES OF ALIGNMENTS UNTIL NEAR THIS FINAL ALIGNMENT. The end of this series of alignments comes with the Venus | Mars alignment This should induce the last Sunspot Peak by about August 16, but it may not come until two or three days after the alignment date, nearly the end of August.

from Home Planet Software

LUNAR SCHEDULE:

Links to: ALMANAC | COSMIC GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR

To quickly surmise the situation for the week, use these graphs below by clicking on their titles. Use these graphs which are drawn by MWM from JPL Ephemeris table data to find PERIGEE, DECLINATION, AND PHASE (NEW OR FULL MOON). Once you figure out how to read them, which is not difficult, you will find these more powerful than words. Please note that you may have to click on the pictures in the browser to instruct your browser to display them in their full size.

The Giant Plot allows you to see the exact dates (UTC).

Giant Plot For Easy Viewing Day By Day
(note: South Declination Is On The Top Side Of The Graph)
One Year Overview
(note: South Declination Is On The Top Side Of The Graph)
Thirteen Year Overview Of Variations In The Perigee Cycle
(note: South Declination Is On The Top Side Of The Graph)

For a more traditional text table of the Lunar Schedule, go to the Almanac

Declination (Dragon Cycle) and Distance (Perigee Cycle) define the strongest and most extreme moments of Lunar influence on the Earth. Distances of less than 365,000 KM indicate Perigees with the Lunar gravity field considerably stronger than average. Declinations of 27 or 28 indicate an extreme position of the Moon over the Northern (+) or Southern Hemisphere (-). A high declination with a low distance for Perigee exerts significantly greater torque on the Earth in zones which do not usually receive so much. The "timing" of these "moments" creates "windows" of exceptional syzygy. These relationships are best viewed in graph form.

[8-18-08 ECB] The Lunar Orbit is now progressively becoming de-synchronized in its cycles. The Moon is Full but it is out of synch with its other two primary orbital cycles. At this moment the Moon is gliding out of Apogee (its furthest distance from the Earth each month) and is well out of its Extreme Southern Declination. We will leave this Full Moon Syzygy about August 20. Expect relatively little tectonic response to this Full Moon. The next dates to watch are August 28 when the Moon is in an Extreme Northern Declination and August 29 when the Moon is in a middling Perigee. The next New Moon will occur September 1/2. Hence the next Syzygy will begin about August 28 and extend through September 4 and most likely will not produce dramatic Earth events beyond the standard range of averages.

[8-4-08 ECB] Considerable dis-synchronization now emerges in the lunar cycles and this will persist until November 2008. November will begin a new round of synchronized lunar cycles, with December producing the strongest synchronization of the year in a near perfect alignment with the Earth's Perihelion, during both the New Moon (Dec. 27/28) and Full Moon (Dec. 13). These then are likely months of the greatest quake events and these are likely to exceed the tectonic activity of April/ May/June.

[4-28-08 ECB] STANDING SYZYGY ANALYSIS FOR THE YEAR. There will be a weak synchronization in May and June of 2008, then strong dis-synchronization until November 2008. November will begin a new round of synchronized Lunar cycles, with December producing the strongest synchronization of the year in a near perfect alignment with the Earth's Perihelion, during both the New Moon (Dec. 27/28) and Full Moon (Dec. 13). These then are likely months of the greatest quake events.AS OF JULY 21, SO FAR THIS ROUGH PROJECTION HAS BEEN ROUGHLY CORRECT.

True Equator and Equinox of Date For 2008
http://aa.usno.navy.mil/cgi-bin/aa_geocentric.pl

ASTEROID DATA QUOTED DIRECTLY FROM NASA

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. See http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/groups.html

On August 18, 2008 there were 971 potentially hazardous asteroids

August 2008 Earth-asteroid encounters:

Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Mag.

Size

54509 YORP
Aug. 1

67 LD

22

130 m

2008 PK9
Aug. 11

11 LD

18

50 m

2008 ON10
Aug. 11

12 LD

19

50 m

2001 RT17
Aug. 14

69 LD

17

1.2 km

1991 VH
Aug. 15

18 LD

15

1.8 km

2008 MZ
Aug. 31

60 LD

17

1.1 km

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

METEOR & COMET ANNOUNCEMENTS FROM NASA