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COSMIC | GEOPHYSICAL | GEOPOLITICAL | SPIRITUAL | TRANSFORMATIONS Geophysical Watch
Monitoring The Changes In The Earth July 21, 2008 Topic keywords: Earth's Wobble - Polar Motion - True Polar Wander - La Nina - El Nino - Ocean Climate Regimes - North Atlantic Oscillation - North Pacific Gyre - Pacific Equator - World Weather - Earthquakes - Volcanism - Hurricanes - Global Warming Syndrome Earthquakes Volcanoes Drought Fire Tectonic Shape-shifting Syzygy Predictions ARCHIVE | HOME | SEARCH | SUBSCRIBE | UNSUBSCRIBE --- HOW TO USE THIS SITE |
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The Changes
In | Earth's Wobble | World Weather | Earthquakes | Volcanism | |
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EARTH'S WOBBLE - POLAR MOTION: Spin Axis, Magnetic Poles
Image is from WobbleTracker software, drawn by MWM Graph Scale is set to 1.0 arcseconds, Grid Size =
0.05 arcseconds This chart shows the location of the North Spin
Axis relative to the “map coordinates” which were established at the end of
the 19th century. A drift
of over 50 feet since 1900 in the circular track of
[7-21-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: The wobble spiral continues to expand but we can now see is this latest 14 month spiral track that the wobble may be displaying a fairly definite "sidedness" in the spin wobble. From the perspective of Greenwich Meridian, which the 0 line of the X Axis (shown in bold), the Earth appears to bob to the North and South (vertically on the graph) more easily than it bobs to the East and West (horizontally on the graph). This parallels the tendency we noticed very strongly in January 2006, which is shown by the short North-South spike in the center of the spirals. PLEASE NOTE HOWEVER, that this sidedness may be partly an illusion created by a spiral track which is expanding now more rapidly than it has during the prior two years. It may take another two years to resolve whether or not this is an illusion or a real "lean" in the wobble.
[5-19-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Not much new news. Only this: the current track of the North Spin (for the past 14 month) demonstrates a small expansion than is more typical and it also demonstrates an oblong (out of round) shape. It is as if the wobble is a little squashed at roughly its 90 degree graph axis. The slightly small size of the wobble's spiral track is within historical variation but the somewhat oblong or perhaps elliptical shape is difficult to compare with previous three-year wobble expansion phases.
[4-7-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Again, no change from prior weeks. There remains some apparent tendency to truncation of the spiral track on the Y Axis. Movement up and down the X Axis appears slightly easier for the Earth's crust than than movement on the Y Axis. This pattern we have been observing since the wobble "freeze" of January 2005.
[2-18-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: The track now shows some outward expansion as one would expect.
[2-11-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Polar Motion apparently is now deviating once again from a normal track. What has been a smooth outward expansion since March 2006 is now apparently too truncated to be called an expansionary spiral. It is "retarded" and parallels far too closely the spiral track of 14 months ago. It should be showing progressive enlargement, but this is no longer evident. There are two possible explanations. One is that this Seven Year Wobble Cycle will be smaller than normal (which happens frequently). Another possible explanation is that the Wobble is merely showing us that significant drift in the average location of the center of the wobble has been and is still underway, such that the spiral center is now drifting towards the left bottom of the chart (down towards about Longitude West 70-80). This the Wobble has also done before. A third possibility is that both factors are in play. Stay tuned, the Wobble continues to be more dynamic than anyone previously imagined.
[1-28-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: As reported January 27 in the "Pivot Point" Bulletin (see Yahoo Archives), the Earth was apparently at tectonic standstill on Saturday/Sunday (almost 0 seismic activity 4+, ultra-low activity in the range of 2.5-4)) while the Earth's tilted axis orientation (fixed on Polaris) began to recede from the orbital Perihelion point and thus begin the shift of the orientations of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres toward the Sun. Otherwise, no significant change from previous reports. The Spiral Track of Earth's Wobble continues to expand outward in a stable pattern. As can be expected (by looking at the history of the Wobble Track), the Earth's Wobble is currently receiving a boost of energy from the Earth's Perihelion moment with the Sun. Since the Earth is closer to the Sun at this moment, solar gravity is tugging in phase slightly more strongly on the heavy side of the Earth (the Southern Hemisphere). As a result the track of Polar Motion is now clearly showing a marked acceleration in the outward, expansionary movement of its spiral track. This is all normal. The Spin Axis is currently located in the longitude quadrant of the Russian Far East moving rapidly towards Alaska..
[11-12-07 ECB] WOBBLE TRACKER SOFTWARE IMPROVED. Davis Chapman graciously upgraded the WobbleTracker Software in a way which makes it easier to use and more analytically powerful for plotting exact date sequences. Anyone who has previously purchased WobbleTracker is eligible for an upgrade which I will email as a zip file.
NEW CHART RELEASE WHICH PROVES THAT POLAR MOTION PHASES REGULATE EL NINO (and probably the other climate oscillations in the Northern Atlantic and the Indian Oceans): To see the chart Click Here! Composed fresh for the revised edition of the Return of the Phoenix, a new expanded chart shows the track of Earth's Wobble up and down the Greenwich Meridian (called the X Axis of polar motion by geophysicists) for the period 1890-2006. For additional details go to Wobble Almanac. WORLD & REGIONAL WEATHER: Storm Fronts, Hurricanes, El Nino & La Nina, Drought & Fire, Global Warming
6-10 Day SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST - NORTH AMERICA
source: NOAA National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
6-10 Day TEMPERATURE FORECAST - NORTH AMERICA
source: NOAA National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
SUMMARY ASSESSMENT
THE NORTH PACIFIC IS BECOMING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE HIGH LATITUDES AND EL NINO IS PROBABLY SLOWLY FORMING UP ALONG THE EQUATOR. Meanwhile the North Atlantic Oscillation is still weakly present while the Atlantic Equator is about normal. These factors will decidedly form much of the weather dynamics for the Summer months. Look for conditions to remain similar to existing conditions in North America, with the Monsoon in the PSW remaining productive of rain. More likely than not, Atlantic hurricane season will remain lackluster.
THE EXTREMES IN CYCLONES, TORNADOES, AND FLOODS PLAINLY AND ABSOLUTELY ARE NOT A RESULT OF STIMULUS FROM THE SUN NOR NATURAL NOR HUMAN-CAUSED CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. This can only by Global Warming Syndrome, showing us what the new weather "normal" is becoming as the Earth's oceans continue to gradually warm.
Hurricane and tornado season is still predicted by NOAA to be modestly to substantially greater than last year and April's forecast has already been upgraded to forecast more storms. Super storms are clearly on the way but the warm up of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific Gyre Hot Spot, and emerging ENSO this year are likely to mute them in North America. Most likely Atlantic hurricane seasons will not become record-makers again until 2010, but as we just saw in Myanmar, another nasty punch or two this year is entirely possible. The result will be pretty much pure "Global Warming" syndrome, mightily influenced throughout the Northern Hemisphere by the North Central Pacific Gyre, with occasional peaking of storm intensity by surges in Solar Activity (but Solar Activity looks like it is going to be minor for the next few months).
The Ocean Climate Regimes (relative to averages)
NEW PREDICTION TOOL BY NOAA PEOPLE - THEY ARE GETTING MORE POWERFUL IN THE ART - EVEN IF THEIR PRESENTATION IS STILL A LITTLE TOO OBSCURE FOR GENERAL READERS - BUT EVEN SO MAY BE WORTH A LOOK:
Click here
for NOAA's latest ENSO Assessment:
LA NINA - now gone probably for three years.
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION [7-21-08 ECB] Dissipating. Summer in Europe will normalize for August. . NORTH PACIFIC GYRE HOTSPOT
[7-21-08 ECB] Bigger and very much warmer than ever in the latitudes North 40 to 50, between Longitude 180 and Kamchatka Peninsula. This is likely to drive a warm-up in the Arctic as well as a dry Summer in western Alaska. Like the Gyre did for the Midwestern floods during May/June, this huge patch will likely have an increasing impact on North American weather. I am uncertain at the moment how this will shift the normal pattern.
EL NINO: Firming up slowly. May not reach recognition stage by climatologists until late 2008. The green trend by Scripps is probably the current reality.
[5-19-08 ECB] NOAA GRAPH PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT EL NINO: Some 15 different prediction models from various sources around the world are summarized in this graph. El Nino and La Nina are technically now categorized as Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) plus or minus 0.5 degrees C from an averaged historical norm. Two predictors agree with the ECB that El Nino may begin to set in this Summer (from July onwards) and two others agree that El Nino may begin to set in this coming November. Five others suggest that La Nina is still here and will remain virtually as it is now through to the end of 2008.
source: NOAA National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 April 2008).
THIS NOW LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR ANY PART OF 2008 [5-5-08 ECB] ECB PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT EL NINO: It will onset during the latter part of 2008 and MAY become one of the strongest of record during the Winter of 2009. It also probably will be a longer than normal El Nino. This is based purely on the higher than ever tempo of earthquake and volcanic activity around the world during 2006 and 2007 and now most especially during April and May of 2008. The increased heat flux from the East Pacific Rift will eventually make its way to the surface and produce the typical El Nino hot Equator.
For More Information On Dynamics and Predictions Of The Ocean Climate Regimes & El Nino / La Nina: GO TO THE WEATHER/CLIMATE ALMANAC
GLOBAL WARMING SYNDROME: Far more probable than not, the first half of 2007 has brought a serious surge of heat through the Great Rifts in the bottom of the oceans. It is likely that this is still continuing and it may continue throughout 2008. The telling sign is the spurt of Great Rift quakes which come and go in waves. These all indicate movements which marine geologists are nearly certain indicate extensive magma dikes and lava flows in or very close to the Great Rift Valleys. This activity during the first half of 2007 likely will feed a new round of heat into the oceanic climate system during the next 36 months and thus over-all Global Warming will continue to surge upwards. This pattern, as of January 08, may still be underway. As of May, 2008, it is evident that this activity has accelerated during the first several months of 2008.
IMPORTANT NOTE AS OF MAY 5 2008: It is now apparent that the American continents, especially North America, has been moving the past few months more than it has for any similar length of time during many years. Related to this is probably the acceleration of activity at the two antipodes of the East Pacific portion of the Great Rift. On nearly mirror opposite sides of the main directions of spread from the East Pacific Rift, namely the Aleutians and the southern tip of South America (which collide head on with the moving ocean bottom plates), tectonic activity also has been elevated the past few months. This has taken the form of both earthquakes (subduction thrusts) and volcanism (squeeze on the mantle). This has been most recently shown by the major eruption of a long dormant volcano in southern Chile This doubtless is an indicator of increased spreading in the East Pacific Rift and thus increased magma rise and heat flow into the bottom of the ocean. Similar increases in Class 4 quake activity during recent months in the Arctic along the Siberian portion of the Great Rift and most recently along the northern edge of Canada, suggest increased rifting of the Arctic portion of the Great Rift . As in the East Pacific, this will probably result in increased heat flow into the Arctic Ocean. Both increases with accelerate the trend lines of Global Warming and result in the greatest melt of Arctic Ice yet recorded this Summer. The heat flow in the East Pacific may also produce a record-breaking El Nino.
The increased heat energy in the climate system along the broad middle of the Earth ( from the tropics which supplies the juice which powers the air conditioner of your weather) is causing the flow of air more rapidly in greater volumes into the north and south out of the Equatorial zone. Warm air travels further to the North (or South) and pushes increased cold air to flow out of the polar zones (your cooling coils). The more Global Warming, the more intense and stormy will be both Winter and Summer, the Winter cooler, the Summer hotter, with more power in all storms. The primary consistent barometer of all of this: the melting of the Arctic Ice.
SOURCE: NOAA The key to dynamic change is the bottom graph which displays the "out of average" readings. This allows us to quickly spot the extremes which are forming up in the various oceanic climate regimes. It is a lot cheaper and easier than using supercomputers.
Seasonal Color Map Graphs - Predict Rain and Temperatures For North America For The Year Ahead – Science Is Finally Catching Up With Farmer’s Almanac. Go here to get updated on the likely rain and temperature forecast. This one currently on the web is essentially based on a La Nina forecast.
HURRICANES
NOAA'S Hurricane Season Forecasts (click for latest updates)
[4-7-08] FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) -
Hurricane forecaster William Gray called Friday for seven Atlantic
hurricanes, three of them major, during the 2008 season.
GEOTECTONIC ACTIVITY: Volcanoes, Shape Shifting, Earthquakes Links to: ALMANAC | GEOTECTONIC GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR
EARTHQUAKE TRENDS & THE CHANGE IN THE EARTH Links to: ALMANAC | QUAKE GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR
Click here to
see the
latest graphs of the
Global Quake Trend
EARTHQUAKES CURRENT:
[7-21-08 ECB] Like the previous Full Moon period, the current Full Moon Syzygy, from which we are now passing, produced a small surge in frequency but did not significantly elevate average frequency or magnitude in Class 4+ world quakes. No interesting patterns emerged. We will likely have a full week of reduced quake activity beginning about now.
Most likely a major factor in the motion of the Pacific Ocean bottom is an
acceleration of rifting (spreading of the Earth's crust) in the East Pacific
Rise portion of the Great Rift which snakes around the Earth at the bottoms
of the oceans. The acceleration of spreading has been evident for the past
few months. It is likely releasing far more heat into the bottom of the
East Pacific than normal and this may be the "gating" phase which will
produce the next El Nino, which is likely to emerge into visibility during
the latter part of 2008 and last through the first half of 2009. Ironically,
then, the Great Quakes in Japan and China this past week may be heralds of
record-breaking El Nino year soon to come. July 21, 2008, IRIS Chart Class 4+
CLICK ON IMAGES FOR EXPANDED VIEW; red indicates quakes 4+ during the previous 24 hours, orange during previous day, yellow during the previous two weeks, violet during the past 15 years
Best to go here below and click for the latest dynamic page with explanations of the symbols and large displays of regions of the Earth (these are "at the moment" charts): http://www.iris.edu/seismon/ Last
Seven Days - for earthquakes worldwide magnitude 4.0 plus and
The East Pacific Rift is known to be separating at a faster rate than any other zone but generally the rifting produces only small quakes, under Class 3. Thus they do not show up on anyone's charts because no one is paying any attention to such small quakes. The same is true of all of the Great Rift, but the Atlantic portion also produces many more Class 4+ quakes during the course of any given year than the other zones. No one seems to know why.
CONCERNING DATABASE FILES
OF QUAKE CATALOGS:
SHAPESHIFTING: ACTIVITY LAST YEAR WAS VERY HIGH. Shape-shifter
quakes indicate the spreading of the Rift Valley, the creation of new crust
through magma dikes which fills in the cracks of the Great Rift, and hence
the inevitable forcing of the Earth’s crust to change its shape to adjust for
the new crust. Most subduction zone
quakes (such as in the Pacific Rim of Fire) probably occur as a consequence of
the shape-shifting of the Earth.
M 5+ earthquakes, past 7 days
RSS 2.0
CAP
Other Datafeeds On Quakes: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/
TECTONIC MOTION QUAKE FORECAST: Occasionally the chart information is supplemented with data from Earth Sensitives, who include some humans and animals. For Earth Sensitive information, go to PamWiseman.com For other Syzygy-type forecasts and a portal to other valuable approaches, see Syzygyjob.com
Links to: ALMANAC | VOLCANO GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR
Krakatau In
Vigorous Eruption November, 2007
For Some New Volcano Reports
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