EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN Weekly Update

Geophysical Watch

Monitoring The Changes In The Earth

June 2, 2008

Topic keywords:

Earth's Wobble - Polar Motion - True Polar Wander - La Nina - El  Nino - Ocean Climate Regimes -  North Atlantic Oscillation - North Pacific Gyre - Pacific Equator -  World Weather - Earthquakes - Volcanism - Hurricanes - Global Warming Syndrome  Earthquakes Volcanoes  Drought Fire  Tectonic Shape-shifting Syzygy Predictions

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GEOPHYSICAL WATCH

The Changes In
Our Sacred Body
Without these things we die,
thus these things compose our true body.

Earth's Wobble  |  World Weather  |  Earthquakes  |  Volcanism  |

 
 

 

EARTH'S WOBBLE -  POLAR MOTION: Spin Axis, Magnetic Poles

 Links to:  ALMANAC  |  WOBBLE GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

 

 

Mouse arrow cursor points toward the latest location of Spin Axis

Image is from WobbleTracker software, drawn by MWM

Graph Scale is set to 1.0 arcseconds, Grid Size = 0.05 arcseconds
Time Domain as shown in upper left hand corner
.
All movement is counter-clockwise.
 

This chart shows the location of the North Spin Axis relative to the “map coordinates” which were established at the end of the 19th century.  A drift of over 50 feet since 1900 in the circular track of Chandler’s Wobble is shown in this chart.  This drift is the primary cause of the acceleration in Earth’s tectonic activity. In order to “parallel” the way in which geophysicists create and record the Earth’s polar location geo-reference system, this graph shows the negative numbers opposite to the manner which they are typically drawn in school books.  –X is shown on the top half, and this corresponds to the direction of the Pacific Hemisphere.  –Y is shown on the right side and this corresponds to the Eurasian Land Mass.  X= Longitude 0, which is the Greenwich Meridian which bisects through England; +Y= Longitude West 90,  which bisects through the Great Lakes (North America).

 

[5-19-08 ECB]  POLAR MOTION:  No new news.

[5-19-08 ECB]  POLAR MOTION:  Not much new news.  Only this: the current track of the North Spin (for the past 14 month) demonstrates a small expansion than is more typical and it also demonstrates an oblong (out of round) shape.  It is as if the wobble is a little squashed at roughly its 90 degree graph axis.  The slightly small size of the wobble's spiral track is within historical variation but the somewhat oblong or perhaps elliptical shape is difficult to compare with previous three-year wobble expansion phases. 

 

[4-7-08 ECB]  POLAR MOTION:  Again, no change from prior weeks.  There remains some apparent tendency to truncation of the spiral track on the Y Axis. Movement up and down the X Axis appears slightly easier for the Earth's crust than than movement on the Y Axis.  This pattern we have been observing since the wobble "freeze" of January 2005.

 

[2-18-08 ECB]  POLAR MOTION:  The track now shows some outward expansion as one would expect.

 

[2-11-08 ECB]  POLAR MOTION:  Polar Motion apparently is now deviating once again from a normal track.  What has been a smooth outward expansion since March 2006 is now apparently too truncated to be called an expansionary spiral.  It is "retarded" and parallels far too closely the spiral track of 14 months ago. It should be showing progressive enlargement, but this is no longer evident.  There are two possible explanations.  One is that this Seven Year Wobble Cycle will be smaller than normal (which happens frequently).  Another possible explanation is that the Wobble is merely showing us that significant drift in the average location of the center of the wobble has been and is still underway, such that the spiral center is now drifting towards the left bottom of the chart (down towards about Longitude West 70-80). This the Wobble has also done before.  A third possibility is that both factors are in play.  Stay tuned, the Wobble continues to be more dynamic than anyone previously imagined.

 

[1-28-08 ECB]  POLAR MOTION:  As reported January 27 in the "Pivot Point" Bulletin (see Yahoo Archives), the Earth was apparently at tectonic standstill on Saturday/Sunday (almost 0 seismic activity 4+, ultra-low activity in the range of 2.5-4)) while the Earth's tilted axis orientation (fixed on Polaris) began to recede from the orbital Perihelion point and thus begin the shift of the orientations of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres toward the Sun.  Otherwise, no significant change from previous reports.  The Spiral Track of Earth's Wobble continues to expand outward in a stable pattern. As can be expected (by looking at the history of the Wobble Track), the Earth's Wobble is currently receiving a boost of energy from the Earth's Perihelion moment with the Sun. Since the Earth is closer to the Sun at this moment, solar gravity is tugging in phase slightly more strongly on the heavy side of the Earth (the Southern Hemisphere).  As a result the track of Polar Motion is now clearly showing a marked acceleration in the outward, expansionary movement of its spiral track.  This is all normal. The Spin Axis is currently located in the longitude quadrant of the Russian Far East moving rapidly towards Alaska..

 

[11-12-07 ECB] WOBBLE TRACKER SOFTWARE IMPROVED.  Davis Chapman graciously upgraded the WobbleTracker Software in a way which makes it easier to use and more analytically powerful for plotting exact date sequences.  Anyone who has previously purchased WobbleTracker is eligible for an upgrade which I will email as a zip file.

 

NEW CHART RELEASE WHICH PROVES THAT POLAR MOTION PHASES REGULATE EL NINO (and probably the other climate oscillations in the Northern Atlantic and the Indian Oceans): To see the chart Click Here! Composed fresh for the revised edition of the Return of the Phoenix, a new expanded chart shows the track of Earth's Wobble up and down the Greenwich Meridian (called the X Axis of polar motion by geophysicists) for the period 1890-2006.  For additional details go to Wobble Almanac.

WORLD & REGIONAL WEATHER: Storm Fronts, Hurricanes, El Nino & La Nina, Drought & Fire, Global Warming

 Links to:  ALMANAC  |  CLIMATE  GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

 

6-10 Day SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST - NORTH AMERICA

 Click on image for larger view

source:  NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/index.php

 

 

6-10 Day TEMPERATURE FORECAST - NORTH AMERICA

 

 Click on image for larger view

source:  NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/index.php

 

 

Click here for:
Weather Forecast For The Next 18 Months - North America

U.S. Weather Service - Experimental Forecasts
[5-5-08 ECB] Click to these charts for the next several seasons - the charts show expected temperatures and moisture compared to average.  I suspect for summer of 2008 the forecasts will be close to the mark for the PSW and the western half of North America.  But I do not think they have El Nino in mind and I suspect THAT will be roaring down the pike late Fall and winter of 2009.

SUMMARY ASSESSMENT

 

MAY'S EXTREMES IN CYCLONES (Myanmar) AND TORNADOES (N.A. Midwest & Plains) PLAINLY AND ABSOLUTELY ARE NOT A RESULT OF STIMULUS FROM THE SUN NOR NATURAL NOR HUMAN-CAUSED CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.  This can only by Global Warming Syndrome, showing us what the new weather "normal" is becoming as the Earth's oceans continue to gradually warm.

 

[5-5-08 ECB] The killer, very early cyclone or hurricane in Myanmar is truly a shocking emergence of the Global Warming super-storm syndrome.  More important than its category speed was its immense size, which showered Myanmar, Thailand, and South China with immense quantities of water. This tells us that the water is warmer than statistical usual in the North Indian Ocean and/or that the atmosphere flowing out of Eurasia is cooler than normal.  Most likely both conditions are true, though NOAA's  SST charts do not seem to show any anomalous warmth of significance in the Indian Ocean.  This does not auger well for hurricane season in the Atlantic.  Solar connection?  Apparently not much.  Solar activity was very slow at nearly its lowest MIN phase. There as a brief magnetic A Index surge to about 30 on April 24, but that probably was not very influential.  So it was with the amazingly destructive tornadoes on North America the past week.  Considering both on opposite sides of the Earth, there may be no clear mathematical definition of the causation but we are probably wisest to call this a part of the emerging Global Warming syndrome.  Super storms are clearly on the way and this is already looking like a good year for a good crop of them.  Neither La Nina, El Nino, nor other ocean oscillations are going to interfere with ocean climate regimes this year, insofar as it looks at the moment, neither is the Sun, which is still in a MIN phase of activity.  Thus the result will be pretty much pure "Global Warming" syndrome.  The 4-28-08 prediction below is still good.

 

[6-2-08 ECB]   Conditions remain unpredictable and probably will get somewhat more chaotic during the next few weeks, driven increasingly by a more active Sun.. Weather averages will be pushed slightly to the higher latitudes to reflect the Global Warming effect.   About the beginning of June, another Sunspot surge, perhaps two to three times larger, is sure to rise up for the Mercury alignments with both Earth and Jupiter in quick succession during the first half of June.    This Solar Activity is likely to energize all oceanic storm fronts and induce major storm surges over all continents during most of June.  Much flooding is likely in the areas which typically see floods during this time of year.  For the PSW, it may seem that the Monsoon has come a few weeks early.  Watch for El Nino, it may be consolidating and if it does so rapidly it will mute out the Atlantic Hurricane Season.  So will the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is rapidly and significantly driving up sea surface temperatures in the North Sea area.  It too is likely to diffuse hurricane formation, draw wet marine air to the north, and shower Northern Europe with a wet summer.

 

 

The Ocean Climate Regimes (relative to averages)

 

NEW PREDICTION TOOL BY NOAA PEOPLE - THEY ARE GETTING MORE POWERFUL IN THE ART - EVEN IF THEIR PRESENTATION IS STILL A LITTLE TOO OBSCURE FOR GENERAL READERS - BUT EVEN SO MAY BE WORTH A LOOK:

 

Click here for NOAA's latest ENSO Assessment:
Weekly Update:
 
On Monday the CPC updates in two different formats: a PowerPoint and a PDF  presentation.  They present the recent trends and change, summaryize the current status and and give predictions of conditions in the tropical Pacific related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle for the year ahead.

 

LA NINA

[6-2-08 ECB]  La Nina is now gone.  Or, the cooler than normal Pacific surface temperature has drifted to the north and now crowds the coastal zone of North America from Baja to Alaska.  This sets up North America for weather the next eight months similar to the previous two years.

 

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION

[6-2-08 ECB]  Once again is building warm water anomalies in the North Sea and around Ireland and the British Isles. Large pools of warmer than normal ocean (by a few degrees C) are forming and these "rising" ocean climates will likely pull equatorial Atlantic air directly to the north, producing a suction to moderate hurricanes.   Expect a relatively wet summer in Europe.

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NORTH PACIFIC GYRE HOTSPOT

[6-2-08 ECB] Still building to spread from the western Pacific, virtually from Japan through to the Gulf of Alaska.  It now shows two distinct centers.  This will likely have a major impact on the Jet Stream.

 

EL NINO:  Building - major formation during the past two weeks

 

[6-2-08 ECB] The Equatorial Pacific is now showing a definite pattern or trend of overall anomalous warming (above average) from Ecuador several hundred miles into the Pacific.  NOAA advised recently that La Nina (still weakly present) will be replaced by "neutral" conditions May-August 08  Others predict that El Nino may begin to appear July-November 08.  IT WOULD APPEAR THAT EL NINO IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AND MAY BE IN PLACE TO INFLUENCE WORLD WEATHER ALREADY IN JULY BY "TRUMPING" THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON with enough cross pressure to starve tropical storms of enough air flow to create vortexian motions.

 

[5-19-08 ECB] NOAA GRAPH PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT EL NINO:  Some 15 different prediction models from various sources around the world are summarized in this graph.  El Nino and La Nina are technically now categorized as Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) plus or minus 0.5 degrees C from an averaged historical norm.  Two predictors agree with the ECB that El Nino may begin to set in this Summer (from July onwards) and two others agree that El Nino may begin to set in this coming November. Five others suggest that La Nina is still here and will remain virtually as it is now through to the end of 2008. 

 Click on image for larger, clearer view

  

source:  NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
see ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION BY NOAA

Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 April 2008). 

 

[5-5-08 ECB] ECB PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT EL NINO:  It will onset during the latter part of 2008 and MAY become one of the strongest of record during the Winter of 2009..  It also probably will be a longer than normal El Nino. This is based purely on the higher than ever tempo of earthquake and volcanic activity around the world during 2006 and 2007 and now most especially during April and May of 2008.  The increased heat flux from the East Pacific Rift will eventually make its way to the surface and produce the typical El Nino hot Equator.

 

For More Information On Dynamics and Predictions Of  The Ocean Climate Regimes & El Nino / La Nina:  GO TO THE WEATHER/CLIMATE ALMANAC

 

GLOBAL WARMING SYNDROME:  Far more probable than not, the first half of 2007 has brought a serious surge of heat through the Great Rifts in the bottom of the oceans.   It is likely that this is still continuing and it may continue throughout 2008.  The telling sign is the spurt of Great Rift quakes which come and go in waves.  These all indicate movements which marine geologists are nearly certain indicate extensive magma dikes and lava flows in or very close to the Great Rift Valleys.  This activity during the first half of 2007 likely will feed a new round of heat into the oceanic climate system during the next 36 months and thus over-all Global Warming will continue to surge upwards.  This pattern, as of January 08, may still be underway. As of May, 2008, it is evident that this activity has accelerated during the first several months of 2008.

 

IMPORTANT NOTE AS OF MAY 5 2008:  It is now apparent that the American continents, especially North America, has been moving the past few months more than it has for any similar length of time during many years. Related to this is probably the acceleration of activity at the two antipodes of the East Pacific portion of the Great Rift.  On nearly mirror opposite sides of the main directions of spread from the East Pacific Rift, namely the Aleutians and the southern tip of South America (which collide head on with the moving ocean bottom plates), tectonic activity also has been elevated the past few months.  This has taken the form of both earthquakes (subduction thrusts) and volcanism (squeeze on the mantle).  This has been most recently shown by the major eruption of a long dormant volcano in southern Chile This doubtless is an indicator of increased spreading in the East Pacific Rift and thus increased magma rise and heat flow into the bottom of the ocean.  Similar increases in Class 4 quake activity during recent months in the Arctic along the Siberian portion of the Great Rift and most recently along the northern edge of Canada, suggest increased rifting of the Arctic portion of the Great Rift .  As in the East Pacific, this will probably result in increased heat flow into the Arctic Ocean.  Both increases with accelerate the trend lines of Global Warming and result in the greatest melt of Arctic Ice yet recorded this Summer.  The heat flow in the East Pacific may also produce a record-breaking El Nino.

 

The increased heat energy in the climate system along the broad middle of the Earth ( from the tropics which supplies the juice which powers the air conditioner of your weather) is causing the flow of air more rapidly in greater volumes into the north and south out of the Equatorial zone.  Warm air travels further to the North (or South) and pushes increased cold air to flow out of the polar zones (your cooling coils).  The more Global Warming, the more intense and stormy will be both Winter and Summer, the Winter cooler, the Summer hotter, with more power in all storms.  The primary consistent barometer of all of this:  the melting of the Arctic Ice.

 

SOURCE: NOAA

The key to dynamic change is the bottom graph which displays the "out of average" readings.  This allows us to quickly spot the extremes which are forming up in the various oceanic climate regimes.  It is a lot cheaper and easier than using supercomputers.

 

Seasonal Color Map Graphs - Predict Rain and Temperatures For North America For The Year Ahead – Science Is Finally Catching Up With Farmer’s Almanac.  Go here to get updated on the likely rain and temperature forecast.  This one currently on the web is essentially based on a La Nina forecast. 

 

HURRICANES

 

NOAA'S Hurricane Season Forecasts  (click for latest updates)

SUMMARY FROM NOAA (THIS IS THEIR TEXT)

NOAA is predicting a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Research Division, and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

The outlook calls for an even higher probability of an above-normal season than was predicted in May (75%), and reiterates the expectation for a sharp increase in activity from the near-normal season observed last year. The 2007 season is expected to become the tenth above-normal season since the current active hurricane era began twelve years ago (in 1995). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The 2007 outlook calls for a likely range of 13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 140%-200% of the median. These ranges are slightly tighter than those predicted in May (13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes, and an ACE range of 125%-210%). The tighter ranges reflect not only an increased confidence for an above normal season, but also a reduced likelihood of seeing as many as 10 hurricanes and 17 named storms.

The prediction for an above-normal 2007 hurricane season reflects the combination of two main climate factors: 1) the continuation of conditions that have been conducive to above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and 2) the continued La Niña-like pattern of tropical convection. In addition, temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea remain well above average (0.56oC). This combination of conditions is known to produce high levels of Atlantic hurricane activity.

So far this season, there have been three Atlantic named storms (Andrea, Barry, and Chantal), which is slightly above average for June and July. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. However, the vast majority of the activity in 2007 is expected during the peak months of the season- August through October (ASO).

[4-7-08] THE ABOVE PREDICTIONS REPLACE THIS BELOW, WHICH WAS THE FIRST HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2008 BY WILLIAM GRAY.  Gray's April predictions called for an increase over 2007, 13 named storms in the Atlantic up from 9 in 2007.  It might be a little early in the Solar Cycle for this many storms.  Definitely, however, magnitudes will be higher for some of the storms.  I will supplement Gray's predictions after I study the planetary alignments for the remainder of 2008.

 

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) - Hurricane forecaster William Gray called Friday for seven Atlantic hurricanes, three of them major, during the 2008 season.

Gray's team at Colorado State University issued the prediction six months before the June-November season begins.

The preliminary forecast calls for a total of 13 named storms in the Atlantic. It also says it is probable that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coastline.

"Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle," Gray said. "This active cycle is expected to continue at least for another decade or two."

Gray has been forecasting hurricanes for more than two decades, and his predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others in coastal areas.

The predictions are not always on the mark. Gray initially forecast nine hurricanes for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, and later lowered that prediction to eight. Only six hurricanes formed.

Cooler water and the presence of wind shears in the central tropical Atlantic explained the difference, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team and the lead author of the forecast. Cooler temperatures inhibit hurricane formation, and wind shears can tear developing hurricanes apart.

The team also predicted nine hurricanes for the 2006 season, when only five developed. Klotzbach said that in seven of the past nine years, the team correctly predicted whether the season would be above or below average.

 

FROM 2007 - THE VERDICT IS IN:  I think that we are we seeing that it is hard to get up a decent hurricane without some sunspot stimulation. With the virtual death of the hurricane season at more or less Solar Minima during 2007, I think we have the verdict now in.  This is a very interesting development. 

NOAA EAST PACIFIC  Latest Facts & Forecast Updated every 12 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

NOAA WEST ATLANTIC  Latest Facts & Forecast Updated every 12 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

 

FROM THIS, A PREDICTION FOR THE 2008 & 2009 SEASONS:  Despite the nasty tornado onset during early 2008, the atmosphere will begin to settle down during late Spring and tornado activity will return to more normal levels.  Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin will be lower than average, on par with 2007.   Stronger storms and more of them will begin to be seen in 2009 and reach a crescendo in 2010/2011.

GEOTECTONIC ACTIVITY: Volcanoes, Shape Shifting, Earthquakes

Links to:  ALMANAC  |  GEOTECTONIC  GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

 

Al, you there?  Here is the primary signal of the tectonic motion which is creating Global Warming.

 

EARTHQUAKE TRENDS & THE CHANGE IN THE EARTH

Links to:  ALMANAC  |  QUAKE GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

 

Click here to see the latest graphs of the Global Quake Trend
(fourfold increase during the past 30 years)

 

EARTHQUAKES CURRENT:

 

[6-2-08 ECB]  The New Moon Syzygy, barely started, has already doubled quake frequency Class 4+, quadrupled frequency for Class 6+, and brought us four shape-shifter quakes in the Great Rift during the past 24 hours, including a 6.4 quake close on the rim of the Antarctica Tectonic Plate. Another 6.4 quake struck the Philippines and a handful of Class 5 quakes struck northern Japan (Rykyo Islands). We have perhaps another full week of elevated quake activity. Strong heads up Western Pacific, esp. Japan, Taiwan, China, Philippines, New Zealand. Also North America is loaded, primed, cocked, and ready to rip. Today's activity in the East Pacific Rise may also portend more activity to come in the Andes from Chile to Peru. Much can be said for the Central-Eastern Medit. and Aegean Sea region. Another 4.2 quake in the central Aegean demonstrates increasing tension transmitting through the Eurasian Compression Belt from Turkey to Sichuan.  

 

Most likely quake activity is still rising in both frequency and average magnitude.
 

If you compare the two world charts below, one can readily see that the surge in quake activity this New Moon Syzygy is stronger than the surge during early May's New Moon.  Most especially ominous is the surge in shape-shifter quakes in the Great Rift during the past two weeks.  It is much larger than the surge which preceded the large quakes in China in early May. This likely portends, based on vortex tectonic principles, a larger surge in subduction and compression quakes during the coming week.
 

[6-02-08 ECB] HEADS UP IN PACIFIC RIM, ESP. THE NORTHERN ARC:   Danger in Sichuan province and throughout both the East-Medit to Himalayan compression zone and the Western Pacific Eurasian plate and the Pacific coastal zone of North America subduction zones has risen and will likely rise  for the next few days, falling off again to normal about June 8.

 

 

TEXT OF ARTICLE MAY 12 FROM THE ECB:

 

BULLETIN ITEM: Eurasia Cracking At Sichuan China - 7.8 Quake followed by strong Class 5+ Aftershocks Every 30 Minutes Or Less

by MW Mandeville (for release to all media)

[May, 2008 ECB]    This Great Quake emerged as a simple fault snap, suddenly and without warning.  Although it struck in an earthquake prone area of Southeast Eurasia, far inland from subduction zones, the quake had no major pre-cursors in the area, unlike the recent large quake near Japan.  Following this quake large aftershocks continue to shake the area as frequently as every 15 minutes. Existing metrics as of Monday morning which describe this quake are likely very inaccurate. This inner continental quake has killed perhaps ten(s) of thousands but the numbers will likely rapidly rise like the still on-going disaster in Myanmar.

Pre cursors for this quake can be identified if the range of view is expanded to most of continental Eurasia. On Saturday and Sunday (Arizona Mountain Time) most world quake activity 4+ ranged through the southern tier of Eurasia in the broad belt which ranges from the Eastern Mediterranean through to Southeast Asia and accross the Sichuan area to as far as Taiwan.  From this perspective, the Sichuan quake is obviously part of a major tectonic "adjustment" in the shape of Eurasia, most likely forced by vectors from the Southern Hemisphere, ranging from the northeastern movements of Africa, the Indian Ocean, and the Australian tectonic plates.

The quake in Sichuan most likely was also partly created by the forces in the Pacific Plate.  Sichuan area is at a vector angle of 170 degrees or greater to the Pacific Plate, which has quite obviously moving at an accelerated pace during the past 30 days.  This rapidly moving (relatively speaking) ocean bottom plate has created both Class 7 quakes and volcanic eruptions around the Pacific Rim during the past few months, most especially during the past 30 days.

Most likely a major factor in the motion of the Pacific Ocean bottom is an accleration of rifting (spreading of the Earth's crust) in the East Pacific Rise portion of the Great Rift which snakes around the Earth at the bottoms of the oceans.  The acceleration of spreading has been evident for the past few months.  It is likely releasing far more heat into the bottom of the East Pacific than normal and this may be the "gating" phase which will produce the next El Nino, which is likely to emerge into visibility during the latter part of 2008 and last through the first half of 2009. Ironically, then, the Great Quakes in Japan and China this past week may be heralds of record-breaking El Nino year soon to come.
 

June 2, 2008, IRIS Chart Class 4+

 

Compare this chart with the May 5 Chart below.

 

CLICK ON IMAGES FOR EXPANDED VIEW; red indicates quakes 4+ during the previous 24 hours, orange during previous day, yellow during the previous two weeks, violet during the past 15 years

SEISMIC MONITOR BY IRIS
 

Best to go here below and click for the latest dynamic page with explanations of the symbols and large displays of regions of the Earth (these are "at the moment" charts):  http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

Last Seven Days - for earthquakes worldwide magnitude 4.0 plus and U.S. territorial magnitude 2.5 plus; for source list see http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

 

 

May 5, 2008, IRIS Chart Class 4+

 

 

CLICK ON IMAGES FOR EXPANDED VIEW; red indicates quakes 4+ during the previous 24 hours, orange during previous day, yellow during the previous two weeks, violet during the past 15 years

SEISMIC MONITOR BY IRIS
 

TEXT FOR MAY 5, 2008

Keep in mind that the red rings show the last 24 hours of quake activity Class 4+. You can obviously quickly observe that most quake activity has shifted during the past 24 hours to Asia and the Western Pacific. You can also notice in this chart that during the past 14 days there have been several Class 4+ quakes in the centers of Eurasia and North America, which are almost certainly compression fault zone quakes, and a string of quakes through the Mid Atlantic ranging from the south end (Sandwich Islands) up to Greenland and the Canadian Arctic North.  If you allow your eye to follow the magenta/purple dots along the top left side, you can see also the Mid Atlantic Rift continue into the Arctic.  The magenta dots represent world quake activity for the past five years but some of those in the Arctic cutting vertically through the East Pacific and intersecting with the heavy quake zone of southern Mexico.

 

The East Pacific Rift is known to be separating at a faster rate than any other zone but generally the rifting produces only small quakes, under Class 3.  Thus they do not show up on anyone's charts because no one is paying any attention to such small quakes.  The same is true of all of the Great Rift, but the Atlantic portion also produces many more Class 4+ quakes during the course of any given year than the other zones.  No one seems to know why.

 

As analyzed in a separate archive post, the high numbers of Class 5+ quakes in the southern tip of South America and in the Aleutians/Alaska tectonic collision zones suggests that the Pacific Ocean Bottom plates are rifting apart at a more rapid rate to the northwest and to the southeast at a higher rate, causing shape-shifting compression waves to break the subduction fault zones in the Aleutians and at the tip of South America. Since the Atlantic Great Rift has been and is fairly active as well, I think perhaps more active than previously (this is difficult to determine exactly without a lot of additional statistical work), it may be that these quakes demonstrate an acceleration of the motion of North America, the Carib Plate, South America, and Eurasia all pushing into the Pacific from three sides, along with Australia, while the Pacific Plate itself is also rifting apart and thrusting against these continental plates at a faster clip.  Only Africa and Antarctica seem to be left at about the same level of activity.

 

Keep in mind that Kilauea , which is probably THE most important important harbinger of world tectonic activity, commenced oozing lava at record-breaking rates several weeks ago along with a substantial  flare of volcanic gases.  This lava flow and eruptive activity has recently increased from a nearly continuous eruption that is now nearly 30 years old.  THIS IS NOW A GEOLOGICAL "CLASSIC" AND IT IS PHENOMENON WORTH SERIOUS RESEARCH. I should also mention that the activity of this volcano, like no other, mirrors the earth changes prophecy of Edgar Cayce like nothing else on Earth.  Underline this statement in your mind.  Kilauea may be our single most important herald of the changes in the Earth.

 

Consider also here the eruption this past several days of Chaiten, dormant for 2000 years in southern Chile,  in a major explosive eruption which sent ash debris up 20 kilometers.  It also spawned many tremors through southern Chile.

 

 This followed a major eruption of Llaima in January/February this year (it is still on the active list).  It is also in southern Chile.  Chile, it should be known as some 500 volcanic cones and craters and all could be active at any time.  Only Indonesia has more.

 

We can see from these points of intersection what we can clearly discern from the flow of events that an acceleration of tectonic events in the Earth is underway.  We also can see that we can directly connect "the dots" in accordance with basic "knowns" in geology and see that we are looking at a unified field of actions and reactions, not random events.

 

All this activity may herald larger quakes and volcanic eruptions to come in many areas.

 

Accordingly, let me augment the warnings which have been made during the past few weeks by academic and government scientists.  Academic Earth Scientists rarely put their necks out on the table but they can see that Earth activity does in fact rise and fall in major spurts. They are simply warning that it may rise some more. The question is always, is this it or will the spike rise higher. This is a very difficult question to answer, impossible without recognition of the Cosmic Frame and the correlations with the lunar cycles.  But even with the Cosmic Frame in mind, the question is still very hard to answer on a consistent basis.  Probably only signals read directly out of the ground will provide the basis for making really good predictions.

 

Having said this as my disclaimer, let me go out on the lunar synchronicity limb.  The syzygies of the lunar cycles are most in phase during November and December of this year.  This current surge of activity will increase off and on for the next 45 days, then fall off until October and then begin to surge again during the end of the year.  This current surge is a part of a broader wobble-connected surge and it will be most intense during the ending months of 2008.

 

 

To get this better in mind, take a look at this giant IRIS full screen chart.  Pretty impressive I would say! 

 

The Nodes of Turn For The Avalanche Of The Crust

 

In the giant chat, focus on three points.  One is Kilauea, the magenta dot in the middle of the North Pacific.  I believe it is nearly dead on the Line of Fall of the predicted avalanche of the crust.  How to explain it? Does this work: the hydraulic pressure in mounting in the mantle.

 

Look at the spiraling arms of quake activity in the West Pacific to the north of Australia.  I believe that close to the point of their intersection is one of the nodes of turn of the slowly emerging avalanche. Visualize the crust of the Earth turning and rolling in a circle centered on this axis point.

 

Go 180 degrees along the equator to find the other node of turn and we find the intersection of the Carib, Pacific, and Latin Plates, with a couple of other plate fragments as well.  Doubtless, the crust of the Earth is breaking up most  rapidly in these two zones  with the exception of the area around Japan .

 

I believe that the spiral arms of activity to the north of Australia are by far the most important tip to the nodes of turn.  Already this Western Pacific node is producing a counter-clockwise twist in the stress vectors of the Earth, which makes all known tectonic motion vectors in the South Pacific and Western Pacific harmonize together.  Many geologic mysteries can be resolved but this is not the place to attempt it.

 

I am greatly thankful to the IRIS charting project.  They put together enough data in a visual form to allow one to see the obvious dynamic of motion in the crust.  It is the beginning of what can become a very powerful tool.

 

As it is they have given me an ability to see how the parallels of current activity confirm the main aspects of my original avalanche scenario which was made in 1999.  We can see that the acceleration of Earth's activity is falling fairly close to the vectors of the original projection. Accordingly, much of the predictions in the scenario about the areas of damage are still very good guestimates, now buttressed by the vectors of motion we can actually see in the Earth.

 

FROM LAST WEEK

 

This "snapshot" may be important for many reasons, not the least of which it may demonstrate the basic effects of axis-shifting which Cayce described some 70 years ago. Paraphrasing fairly closely, Cayce said that "upheavals in the frigid zones make for volcanic eruptions in the torrid zones" (find source by googling the key terms).  On the basis of this snapshot in time, let us now test the statement during the next 30 days (a full lunar cycle) and see if volcanic activity does indeed increase.

 

Ah hem...well, Chaiten in Chile could be counted at a literal upheaval in the southern frigid zone.   But still no torrid zone eruptions worth talking about.

 

 

For further discussion, see last week's Update

 

CONCERNING DATABASE FILES OF QUAKE CATALOGS:
The EC Bulletins is now using  ONLY THE "ANSS COMPOSITE QUAKE CATALOG" for stats - The ANSS is the evolved transformation of the CSSC system based at Berkeley California where the geophysicists have been collecting data since the beginning of the seismograph technology.  The USGS databases are derived from the ANSS catalogs and the IRIS group above is attempting to provide a scientific display network for access to current information about current earthquakes (for the last 30 days).

 

SHAPESHIFTING:  ACTIVITY LAST YEAR WAS VERY HIGH.

Shape-shifter quakes indicate the spreading of the Rift Valley, the creation of new crust through magma dikes which fills in the cracks of the Great Rift, and hence the inevitable forcing of the Earth’s crust to change its shape to adjust for the new crust.  Most subduction zone quakes (such as in the Pacific Rim of Fire) probably occur as a consequence of the shape-shifting of the Earth. The outlines of the tectonic plates and the Great Rift can be be seen in the violet color in this chart above.  For a chart of Earth’s Tectonic Plates, go to: http://www.iris.edu/seismon/html/plates.html

 

M 5+ earthquakes, past 7 days RSS 2.0 CAP
The USGS RSS Feed, which is constantly changing its content, can be accessed at:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/eqs7day-M5.xml

 

Other Datafeeds On Quakes:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/

 

TECTONIC MOTION QUAKE FORECAST:
Forecasts are based on Syzygy Windows which can be seen in the Lunar Ephemeris Charts.  Go to the Moon section to select your chart.

Occasionally the chart information is supplemented with data from Earth Sensitives, who include some humans and animals. For Earth Sensitive information, go to PamWiseman.com  For other Syzygy-type forecasts and a portal to other valuable approaches, see Syzygyjob.com

 

THIS PREDICTION HAS BEEN FULFILLED AND IS STILL VALIDLY ON TRACK [5-5-08]  The next 45 days is likely to a greater likelihood of major quakes.  Danger zones will reappear in May and June Full or New Moon periods, and again in November and December.  The other months of the year will not be highly stressful syzygies and they are less likely to produce large and/or numerous quakes.

 

[5-19-08] BINGO:  THIS PREDICTION CORRECT SO FAR AND STILL ON TRACT: [5-12-08]  Given the fact that there has been a clear acceleration in tectonic activity this past 45 days, it is very difficult to predict what is going to happen with this latest round of tectonic flux. According to syzygy principles, activity should now be declining and continue to abate during the next several days, only to climb again in a new surge during the Full Moon on May 20, plus or minus two or three days.

 

VOLCANISM

Links to:  ALMANAC  |  VOLCANO  GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

 

 

Krakatau In Vigorous Eruption November, 2007
(also popularly known as Krakatoa)

 

For Some New Volcano Reports
as written by John Seach, See http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html  Reports are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT +10 hr).  Archived Volcano News  RSS

Saturday 31st May 2008
Cerro Azul Volcano, Galápagos Islands

Cerro Azul Volcano in the Galápagos Islands erupted on Friday 30th May after 10 years of inactivity. Seismic activity was felt at Porto Villamil at 21:43 hr at the onset of the eruption. A red glow was visible at the volcano indicating a lava flow. Ash emissions extended 75 nautical miles NW of the volcano. National park staff are currently performing an overflight to determine the extent of the eruption, and the impact on the flora and fauna of the area, including rare tortoises, which live near the crater. Tortoises may have to be airlifted out of the way of lava flows. Initial information indicates lava flowed down the south side of the volcano. The last eruption in 1998 sent lava down the south side of the volcano burning several tortoises.
More on Cerro Azul Volcano...
Volcanoes of Galápagos Islands...

Saturday 31st May 2008
Chaitén Volcano, Chile

Continuous eruptions are occurring at Chaitén volcano in Chile. On 28th May ash emissions reached 4 km high and affected communities hundreds of kilometers north of the volcano. Ash forced the closure of airports at Puerto Montt, Osorno, Valdivia, and Temuco. Lower level winds scattered ash eastwards along the coast between Chaitén and Chumildén, near Talcán Island. Earthquakes have been diminishing over the past few days. The decline in seismic activity has accompanied the decrease in height of the eruption column. Larger explosive eruptions are still possible.
More on Chaitén Volcano...
Volcanoes of Chile...

Thursday 15th May 2008
Mt Etna Volcano, Italy

Eruptions have increased at Mt Etna volcano in Italy. A series of about twelve earthquakes have occurred at the summit of the volcano, the largest being magnitude 3.9. On Tuesday a fracture opened at the base of southeast crater between 2500 m and 2900 m above sea level. Strombolian activity has begun at southeast crater and lava flowed to the Valle del Bove and descended to an altitude of 1300 m.
More on Mt Etna Volcano...
Volcanoes of Italy...

For Comprehensive Coverage Of New Eruptions
see the current eruptions profiles at the International Volcano Research Center

[6-2-08 ECB]  After an upward surge early in May, world volcanism declined during the past three weeks after the deep cracking in the highland mountains of Southwest China.  Currently the Active List is at 30 (down 4 during the past four weeks), the Restless List is at 3 (samo), and the Alert List is at 78 (samo). Despite the decline in the active list, some eruptions remain highly active and new ones pop up nearly every week.

 

[From 5-12-08 ECB]  Since the ECB is on a roll with pattern recognition of motion in the crust, consider this pattern of volcanism as signals of Major or Great Quakes.   Kilauea and Etna are possibly the two most important heralds or signals of tectonic activity in the Earth's crust.  In April Kilauea commenced a more vigorous eruption despite 30 years of nearly continuous eruption.  Major quakes strike in Japan on May 6.  On May 10/11, Class 4 quakes began to sprout through the vast South Eurasian belt, from the Aegean to Taiwan.  On May 11, Etna, having stood quietly for many weeks, suddenly flared into an ash and lava eruption, accompanying Karymsky on Kamchatka which emitted a new ash explosion.  These eruptions followed new or renewed ash eruptions earlier in the week from Balbi on Bougainville Island, Rabual on Papua New Guinea, and a few others.  Then in the afternoon on May 11 only hours after Etna signalled an increase in Eurasian tectonic activity, the Great Quake struck in Sichuan.

 

This establishes an important thesis for the vortex tectonic paradigm:  do large quakes precede or follow new volcanic eruptions?  I have been asking this question off and on for many years, but always too distracted to tackle it directly.  It would appear that events have caught up with me and have at least partially answered the question for large world-class events..  Volcanoes begin the process of relieving strain in the mantle and crust with eruptions, the quakes finish the job.  This truly establishes volcanoes, in principle, as extremely important signals for those trying to pre-guess activity in the Earth's crust.

 

[6-2-08 ECB]  World volcanism appears to be a little less than last month despite the appearance of new eruptions, such as a fairly vigorous eruption on Galagagos Island this week near the East Pacific Rift.  Many vigorous eruptions are underway, such as in our sentinels of  Kilauea and Etna, but reports of many volcanoes on the Active List have not been updated, suggesting a gradual muting in many volcanoes.  Etna may tell the story of most, it is still erupting relatively small amounts of steam, ash, and lava with tremors, but the general level has declined since just after mid May.   Ash plumes continue from many smokers, but lava flows are less common and less vigorous.   Kilauea STILL remains productive of lava flowing into the ocean and both ash and sulfur dioxide emissions remain a serious issue near the volcano. The Western Hemisphere volcanoes many be slightly more active this week while the Indonesian and Kamchatka volcanoes continue their ash plumes, dome growths, lava, and occasional but fairly small explosions but most are slowly muting their activity.  Chaiten in Chile continued with vigor.  Erebus, Stromboli, Yasur, and Arenal continue their long ever-lasting eruptions.  (These typically produce lava lakes, lava fountains, and strombolian explosions). As predicted in the next paragraph, it is likely that June or early July will be the peak month for the 08 volcano season and that activity will fall off fairly rapidly with the dis-synchronization of the lunar orbit during July-October.

 

Forecast For Summer 08: [4-28-08] This year's peak activity is likely to form up in May and June, tapering off quickly during the Summer and early Fall.  December may see another major surge in synchronicity with the lunar cycles.

 

Forecast  [1-7-08 ECB] In accordance with past wobble cycles and the general average trend of increase in volcanic activity, I expect that volcanic activity during 2008 will be about the same as 2007 or abate by a small percentage.

 

SUMMARY DATA FROM THE INTERNATIONAL VOLCANO RESEARCH CENTER: 

 

General Note:   INTLVRC reached a 100% rate of accuracy in predicting eruptions, the first time in their history since 1989.  They also documented 69 eruptions during 2005 and 2006, which most likely defines a peak plateau.  I expect to see even higher in 2007 (based on Wobble parallels) and then another plateauing for a couple years.  The year 2007 began with higher than normal numbers for "alert list" volcanoes.  The list generally begins the year in the range of 60 but it began the year at 71 for 2007, a record, and was at 73 just eight days into the year.  Activity going into 2008 is apparently about 10% lower.

Conclusions Independently Reached From Data At The International Volcano Research Center (INTLVRC)

http://www.intlvrc.org/

 

In early January the INTLVRC resets their counts.  They carried forward into 2007 16 volcanoes on the active list . Only 13 were carried forward as active into 2008 but within two weeks time the active list had swelled up to 20 .  Apparently the reset was too severe and a base number of 20 is more likely to be a better number..   Thus, the year probably began at about the same level as did 2007 or perhaps a little higher.  These are volcanoes  which more or less are continuously erupting.

[6-2-08]   Alert List = 78 (samo)