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COSMIC | GEOPHYSICAL | GEOPOLITICAL | SPIRITUAL | TRANSFORMATIONS Geophysical Watch
Monitoring The Changes In The Earth June 16, 2008 Topic keywords: Earth's Wobble - Polar Motion - True Polar Wander - La Nina - El Nino - Ocean Climate Regimes - North Atlantic Oscillation - North Pacific Gyre - Pacific Equator - World Weather - Earthquakes - Volcanism - Hurricanes - Global Warming Syndrome Earthquakes Volcanoes Drought Fire Tectonic Shape-shifting Syzygy Predictions ARCHIVE | HOME | SEARCH | SUBSCRIBE | UNSUBSCRIBE --- HOW TO USE THIS SITE |
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The Changes
In | Earth's Wobble | World Weather | Earthquakes | Volcanism | |
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EARTH'S WOBBLE - POLAR MOTION: Spin Axis, Magnetic Poles
Image is from WobbleTracker software, drawn by MWM Graph Scale is set to 1.0 arcseconds, Grid Size =
0.05 arcseconds This chart shows the location of the North Spin
Axis relative to the “map coordinates” which were established at the end of
the 19th century. A drift
of over 50 feet since 1900 in the circular track of
[6-16-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: No new news. [5-19-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Not much new news. Only this: the current track of the North Spin (for the past 14 month) demonstrates a small expansion than is more typical and it also demonstrates an oblong (out of round) shape. It is as if the wobble is a little squashed at roughly its 90 degree graph axis. The slightly small size of the wobble's spiral track is within historical variation but the somewhat oblong or perhaps elliptical shape is difficult to compare with previous three-year wobble expansion phases.
[4-7-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Again, no change from prior weeks. There remains some apparent tendency to truncation of the spiral track on the Y Axis. Movement up and down the X Axis appears slightly easier for the Earth's crust than than movement on the Y Axis. This pattern we have been observing since the wobble "freeze" of January 2005.
[2-18-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: The track now shows some outward expansion as one would expect.
[2-11-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Polar Motion apparently is now deviating once again from a normal track. What has been a smooth outward expansion since March 2006 is now apparently too truncated to be called an expansionary spiral. It is "retarded" and parallels far too closely the spiral track of 14 months ago. It should be showing progressive enlargement, but this is no longer evident. There are two possible explanations. One is that this Seven Year Wobble Cycle will be smaller than normal (which happens frequently). Another possible explanation is that the Wobble is merely showing us that significant drift in the average location of the center of the wobble has been and is still underway, such that the spiral center is now drifting towards the left bottom of the chart (down towards about Longitude West 70-80). This the Wobble has also done before. A third possibility is that both factors are in play. Stay tuned, the Wobble continues to be more dynamic than anyone previously imagined.
[1-28-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: As reported January 27 in the "Pivot Point" Bulletin (see Yahoo Archives), the Earth was apparently at tectonic standstill on Saturday/Sunday (almost 0 seismic activity 4+, ultra-low activity in the range of 2.5-4)) while the Earth's tilted axis orientation (fixed on Polaris) began to recede from the orbital Perihelion point and thus begin the shift of the orientations of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres toward the Sun. Otherwise, no significant change from previous reports. The Spiral Track of Earth's Wobble continues to expand outward in a stable pattern. As can be expected (by looking at the history of the Wobble Track), the Earth's Wobble is currently receiving a boost of energy from the Earth's Perihelion moment with the Sun. Since the Earth is closer to the Sun at this moment, solar gravity is tugging in phase slightly more strongly on the heavy side of the Earth (the Southern Hemisphere). As a result the track of Polar Motion is now clearly showing a marked acceleration in the outward, expansionary movement of its spiral track. This is all normal. The Spin Axis is currently located in the longitude quadrant of the Russian Far East moving rapidly towards Alaska..
[11-12-07 ECB] WOBBLE TRACKER SOFTWARE IMPROVED. Davis Chapman graciously upgraded the WobbleTracker Software in a way which makes it easier to use and more analytically powerful for plotting exact date sequences. Anyone who has previously purchased WobbleTracker is eligible for an upgrade which I will email as a zip file.
NEW CHART RELEASE WHICH PROVES THAT POLAR MOTION PHASES REGULATE EL NINO (and probably the other climate oscillations in the Northern Atlantic and the Indian Oceans): To see the chart Click Here! Composed fresh for the revised edition of the Return of the Phoenix, a new expanded chart shows the track of Earth's Wobble up and down the Greenwich Meridian (called the X Axis of polar motion by geophysicists) for the period 1890-2006. For additional details go to Wobble Almanac. WORLD & REGIONAL WEATHER: Storm Fronts, Hurricanes, El Nino & La Nina, Drought & Fire, Global Warming
6-10 Day SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST - NORTH AMERICA
source: NOAA National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
6-10 Day TEMPERATURE FORECAST - NORTH AMERICA
source: NOAA National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
SUMMARY ASSESSMENT
THE EXTREMES IN CYCLONES, TORNADOES, AND FLOODS PLAINLY AND ABSOLUTELY ARE NOT A RESULT OF STIMULUS FROM THE SUN NOR NATURAL NOR HUMAN-CAUSED CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. This can only by Global Warming Syndrome, showing us what the new weather "normal" is becoming as the Earth's oceans continue to gradually warm.
Look to the Hot Spot in the North Pacific Gyre as the probable major influence in the exceptional flooding in North America.
[5-5-08 ECB] The killer, very early cyclone or hurricane in Myanmar is truly a shocking emergence of the Global Warming super-storm syndrome. More important than its category speed was its immense size, which showered Myanmar, Thailand, and South China with immense quantities of water. This tells us that the water is warmer than statistical usual in the North Indian Ocean and/or that the atmosphere flowing out of Eurasia is cooler than normal. Most likely both conditions are true, though NOAA's SST charts do not seem to show any anomalous warmth of significance in the Indian Ocean. This does not auger well for hurricane season in the Atlantic. Solar connection? Apparently not much. Solar activity was very slow at nearly its lowest MIN phase. There as a brief magnetic A Index surge to about 30 on April 24, but that probably was not very influential. So it was with the amazingly destructive tornadoes on North America the past week. Considering both on opposite sides of the Earth, there may be no clear mathematical definition of the causation but we are probably wisest to call this a part of the emerging Global Warming syndrome. Super storms are clearly on the way and this is already looking like a good year for a good crop of them. Neither La Nina, El Nino, nor other ocean oscillations are going to interfere with ocean climate regimes this year, insofar as it looks at the moment, neither is the Sun, which is still in a MIN phase of activity. Thus the result will be pretty much pure "Global Warming" syndrome. The 4-28-08 prediction below is still good.
[6-16-08 ECB] Prognostication is much the same as in prior weeks. Conditions remain unpredictable and probably will get somewhat more chaotic during the next few weeks, driven increasingly by a more active Sun.. Weather averages will be pushed slightly to the higher latitudes to reflect the Global Warming effect. Another surge in Solar Activity is likely but it may be much the same as the two prior surges - in the range of 13 Sunspots, barely out of MIN. This is probably not enough to significantly energize oceanic storm fronts, it will be a minor influence. Seasonal changes with the latitude shift in the location in the Sun is most likely the dominant driver on top of warmer oceans. For the PSW, it may seem that the Monsoon has come a few weeks early. Watch for El Nino, it may be consolidating and if it does so rapidly it will mute out the Atlantic Hurricane Season. So will the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is rapidly and significantly driving up sea surface temperatures in the North Sea area. It too is likely to diffuse hurricane formation, draw wet marine air to the north, and shower Northern Europe with a wet summer.
The Ocean Climate Regimes (relative to averages)
NEW PREDICTION TOOL BY NOAA PEOPLE - THEY ARE GETTING MORE POWERFUL IN THE ART - EVEN IF THEIR PRESENTATION IS STILL A LITTLE TOO OBSCURE FOR GENERAL READERS - BUT EVEN SO MAY BE WORTH A LOOK:
Click here
for NOAA's latest ENSO Assessment:
LA NINA [6-16-08 ECB] NO CHANGE FROM [6-2-08 ECB] La Nina is now gone. Or, the cooler than normal Pacific surface temperature has drifted to the north and now crowds the coastal zone of North America from Baja to Alaska. This sets up North America for weather the next eight months similar to the previous two years.
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION [6-16-08 ECB] The build up of warm water anomalies in the North Sea and around Ireland and the British Isles has accelerated significantly over the past month.. Large pools of warmer than normal ocean (by a few degrees C) are forming and these "rising" ocean climates will likely pull equatorial Atlantic air directly to the north, producing a suction to moderate hurricanes. Expect a relatively wet summer in Europe. THIS WILL DIFFUSE ATLANTIC HURRICANES. . NORTH PACIFIC GYRE HOTSPOT [6-2-08 ECB] THIS GYRE IS LIKELY DRIVING THE MASSIVE FLOODS IN THE IOWA AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. The simple truth is that the North Pacific is warming up and it is shifting the entire climate pattern of North America more than it has been shifted for several hundred years. The gradual warming has built up a huge anomaly in the Pacific this year, virtually from Japan through to the Gulf of Alaska. A hot center in the Gulf of Alaska will likely have a major impact on the Jet Stream and weather conditions in the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockie, in fact probably already has. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS CLIMATE SHIFT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH SOLAR ACTIVITY OR SUNSPOT COUNTS. IT IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY AN ACCELERATION IN TECTONIC ACTIVITY WHICH IS INDUCING A WARMING PHASE IN THE WORLD OCEAN. AS CAN BE SEEN, GLOBAL WARMING HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH GREENHOUSE GASSES, IT IS ENTIRELY A CREATION OF HEAT IN THE OCEANS. THIS CAN BE SEEN AS PLAIN AS DAY. Look at the Sea Surface Temperature Chart below. The reddish brown area in the North Pacific most likely is the source of the water which is now flowing across Iowa.
EL NINO: Building - major formation during the past two weeks
[6-16-08 ECB] Condition about the same as two weeks ago.
[6-2-08 ECB] The Equatorial Pacific is now showing a definite pattern or trend of overall anomalous warming (above average) from Ecuador several hundred miles into the Pacific. NOAA advised recently that La Nina (still weakly present) will be replaced by "neutral" conditions May-August 08 Others predict that El Nino may begin to appear July-November 08. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT EL NINO IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AND MAY BE IN PLACE TO INFLUENCE WORLD WEATHER ALREADY IN JULY BY "TRUMPING" THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON with enough cross pressure to starve tropical storms of enough air flow to create vortexian motions.
[5-19-08 ECB] NOAA GRAPH PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT EL NINO: Some 15 different prediction models from various sources around the world are summarized in this graph. El Nino and La Nina are technically now categorized as Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) plus or minus 0.5 degrees C from an averaged historical norm. Two predictors agree with the ECB that El Nino may begin to set in this Summer (from July onwards) and two others agree that El Nino may begin to set in this coming November. Five others suggest that La Nina is still here and will remain virtually as it is now through to the end of 2008.
source: NOAA National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 April 2008).
[5-5-08 ECB] ECB PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT EL NINO: It will onset during the latter part of 2008 and MAY become one of the strongest of record during the Winter of 2009.. It also probably will be a longer than normal El Nino. This is based purely on the higher than ever tempo of earthquake and volcanic activity around the world during 2006 and 2007 and now most especially during April and May of 2008. The increased heat flux from the East Pacific Rift will eventually make its way to the surface and produce the typical El Nino hot Equator.
For More Information On Dynamics and Predictions Of The Ocean Climate Regimes & El Nino / La Nina: GO TO THE WEATHER/CLIMATE ALMANAC
GLOBAL WARMING SYNDROME: Far more probable than not, the first half of 2007 has brought a serious surge of heat through the Great Rifts in the bottom of the oceans. It is likely that this is still continuing and it may continue throughout 2008. The telling sign is the spurt of Great Rift quakes which come and go in waves. These all indicate movements which marine geologists are nearly certain indicate extensive magma dikes and lava flows in or very close to the Great Rift Valleys. This activity during the first half of 2007 likely will feed a new round of heat into the oceanic climate system during the next 36 months and thus over-all Global Warming will continue to surge upwards. This pattern, as of January 08, may still be underway. As of May, 2008, it is evident that this activity has accelerated during the first several months of 2008.
IMPORTANT NOTE AS OF MAY 5 2008: It is now apparent that the American continents, especially North America, has been moving the past few months more than it has for any similar length of time during many years. Related to this is probably the acceleration of activity at the two antipodes of the East Pacific portion of the Great Rift. On nearly mirror opposite sides of the main directions of spread from the East Pacific Rift, namely the Aleutians and the southern tip of South America (which collide head on with the moving ocean bottom plates), tectonic activity also has been elevated the past few months. This has taken the form of both earthquakes (subduction thrusts) and volcanism (squeeze on the mantle). This has been most recently shown by the major eruption of a long dormant volcano in southern Chile This doubtless is an indicator of increased spreading in the East Pacific Rift and thus increased magma rise and heat flow into the bottom of the ocean. Similar increases in Class 4 quake activity during recent months in the Arctic along the Siberian portion of the Great Rift and most recently along the northern edge of Canada, suggest increased rifting of the Arctic portion of the Great Rift . As in the East Pacific, this will probably result in increased heat flow into the Arctic Ocean. Both increases with accelerate the trend lines of Global Warming and result in the greatest melt of Arctic Ice yet recorded this Summer. The heat flow in the East Pacific may also produce a record-breaking El Nino.
The increased heat energy in the climate system along the broad middle of the Earth ( from the tropics which supplies the juice which powers the air conditioner of your weather) is causing the flow of air more rapidly in greater volumes into the north and south out of the Equatorial zone. Warm air travels further to the North (or South) and pushes increased cold air to flow out of the polar zones (your cooling coils). The more Global Warming, the more intense and stormy will be both Winter and Summer, the Winter cooler, the Summer hotter, with more power in all storms. The primary consistent barometer of all of this: the melting of the Arctic Ice.
SOURCE: NOAA The key to dynamic change is the bottom graph which displays the "out of average" readings. This allows us to quickly spot the extremes which are forming up in the various oceanic climate regimes. It is a lot cheaper and easier than using supercomputers.
Seasonal Color Map Graphs - Predict Rain and Temperatures For North America For The Year Ahead – Science Is Finally Catching Up With Farmer’s Almanac. Go here to get updated on the likely rain and temperature forecast. This one currently on the web is essentially based on a La Nina forecast.
HURRICANES
NOAA'S Hurricane Season Forecasts (click for latest updates)
[4-7-08] FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) -
Hurricane forecaster William Gray called Friday for seven Atlantic
hurricanes, three of them major, during the 2008 season.
GEOTECTONIC ACTIVITY: Volcanoes, Shape Shifting, Earthquakes Links to: ALMANAC | GEOTECTONIC GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR
EARTHQUAKE TRENDS & THE CHANGE IN THE EARTH Links to: ALMANAC | QUAKE GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR
Click here to
see the
latest graphs of the
Global Quake Trend
EARTHQUAKES CURRENT:
[6-16-08 ECB] The Full Moon Syzygy, just started, has not elevated frequency or magnitudes in the Class 4+ world quakes. Quakes in the Great Rift, however, appear to be increasing slightly in frequency , and several quakes during the past 48 hours have appeared on the Carib Plate and along the western coast of Mexico into Baja. We will likely have a full week of elevated quake activity emerge beginning about now. From previous weeks, North America remains loaded, primed, cocked, and ready to rip. North America, including Alaska, is likely to experience a surge of activity tailing increased activity in the Atlantic Great Rift and the East Pacific Rifts.
Regarding China, Japan, and other zones, there is little indication except this. Four quakes in the East Pacific Great Rifts, including three at Class 5+, indicate that the East Pacific Rift is still spreading faster than normal. This increases the probability of greater stress in the subduction zones of Latin America and the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire, as well as in New Zealand and to a lesser extent on the Northern edge of the Australian Tectonic Plate. If increased rifting occurs in the North Atlantic (or Arctic Zone) I will raise a Heads Up for the western coast of North America and Alaska. If more activity is expressed in the East Pacific Rift, I will raise a Heads UP for both China and Japan.
Note on these shape shifting vectors from previous updates:
The quake in Sichuan most likely was also partly created by the forces in
the Pacific Plate. Sichuan area is at a vector angle of 170 degrees or
greater to the Pacific Plate, which has quite obviously moving at an
accelerated pace during the past 30 days. This rapidly moving (relatively
speaking) ocean bottom plate has created both Class 7 quakes and volcanic
eruptions around the Pacific Rim during the past few months, most especially
during the past 30 days. June 16, 2008, IRIS Chart Class 4+
CLICK ON IMAGES FOR EXPANDED VIEW; red indicates quakes 4+ during the previous 24 hours, orange during previous day, yellow during the previous two weeks, violet during the past 15 years
Best to go here below and click for the latest dynamic page with explanations of the symbols and large displays of regions of the Earth (these are "at the moment" charts): http://www.iris.edu/seismon/ Last
Seven Days - for earthquakes worldwide magnitude 4.0 plus and
The East Pacific Rift is known to be separating at a faster rate than any other zone but generally the rifting produces only small quakes, under Class 3. Thus they do not show up on anyone's charts because no one is paying any attention to such small quakes. The same is true of all of the Great Rift, but the Atlantic portion also produces many more Class 4+ quakes during the course of any given year than the other zones. No one seems to know why.
CONCERNING DATABASE FILES
OF QUAKE CATALOGS:
SHAPESHIFTING: ACTIVITY LAST YEAR WAS VERY HIGH. Shape-shifter
quakes indicate the spreading of the Rift Valley, the creation of new crust
through magma dikes which fills in the cracks of the Great Rift, and hence
the inevitable forcing of the Earth’s crust to change its shape to adjust for
the new crust. Most subduction zone
quakes (such as in the Pacific Rim of Fire) probably occur as a consequence of
the shape-shifting of the Earth.
M 5+ earthquakes, past 7 days
RSS 2.0
CAP
Other Datafeeds On Quakes: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/
TECTONIC MOTION QUAKE FORECAST: Occasionally the chart information is supplemented with data from Earth Sensitives, who include some humans and animals. For Earth Sensitive information, go to PamWiseman.com For other Syzygy-type forecasts and a portal to other valuable approaches, see Syzygyjob.com
THIS PREDICTION HAS BEEN FULFILLED AND IS STILL VALIDLY ON TRACK [5-5-08] The next 45 days is likely to a greater likelihood of major quakes. Danger zones will reappear in May and June Full or New Moon periods, and again in November and December. The other months of the year will not be highly stressful syzygies and they are less likely to produce large and/or numerous quakes.
[5-19-08] BINGO: THIS PREDICTION CORRECT SO FAR AND STILL ON TRACT: [5-12-08] Given the fact that there has been a clear acceleration in tectonic activity this past 45 days, it is very difficult to predict what is going to happen with this latest round of tectonic flux. According to syzygy principles, activity should now be declining and continue to abate during the next several days, only to climb again in a new surge during the Full Moon on May 20, plus or minus two or three days.
Links to: ALMANAC | VOLCANO GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR
Krakatau In
Vigorous Eruption November, 2007
For Some New Volcano Reports
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