EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN Weekly Update

Geophysical Watch

Monitoring The Changes In The Earth

March 17, 2008

Topic keywords:

Earth's Wobble - Polar Motion - True Polar Wander - La Nina - El  Nino - Ocean Climate Regimes -  North Atlantic Oscillation - North Pacific Gyre - Pacific Equator -  World Weather - Earthquakes - Volcanism - Hurricanes - Global Warming Syndrome  Earthquakes Volcanoes  Drought Fire  Tectonic Shape-shifting Syzygy Predictions

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GEOPHYSICAL WATCH

The Changes In
Our Sacred Body
Without these things we die,
thus these things compose our true body.

Earth's Wobble  |  World Weather  |  Earthquakes  |  Volcanism  |

 
 

 

EARTH'S WOBBLE -  POLAR MOTION: Spin Axis, Magnetic Poles

 Links to:  ALMANAC  |  WOBBLE GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

 

[3-18-08 ECB]  POLAR MOTION:  No change from prior weeks.  There remains some apparent tendency to truncation of the spiral track on the Y Axis. Movement up and down the X Axis appears slightly easier for the Earth's crust than than movement on the Y Axis.  This pattern we have been observing since the wobble "freeze" of January 2005.

 

[2-18-08 ECB]  POLAR MOTION:  The track now shows some outward expansion as one would expect.

 

[2-11-08 ECB]  POLAR MOTION:  Polar Motion apparently is now deviating once again from a normal track.  What has been a smooth outward expansion since March 2006 is now apparently too truncated to be called an expansionary spiral.  It is "retarded" and parallels far too closely the spiral track of 14 months ago. It should be showing progressive enlargement, but this is no longer evident.  There are two possible explanations.  One is that this Seven Year Wobble Cycle will be smaller than normal (which happens frequently).  Another possible explanation is that the Wobble is merely showing us that significant drift in the average location of the center of the wobble has been and is still underway, such that the spiral center is now drifting towards the left bottom of the chart (down towards about Longitude West 70-80). This the Wobble has also done before.  A third possibility is that both factors are in play.  Stay tuned, the Wobble continues to be more dynamic than anyone previously imagined.

 

[1-28-08 ECB]  POLAR MOTION:  As reported January 27 in the "Pivot Point" Bulletin (see Yahoo Archives), the Earth was apparently at tectonic standstill on Saturday/Sunday (almost 0 seismic activity 4+, ultra-low activity in the range of 2.5-4)) while the Earth's tilted axis orientation (fixed on Polaris) began to recede from the orbital Perihelion point and thus begin the shift of the orientations of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres toward the Sun.  Otherwise, no significant change from previous reports.  The Spiral Track of Earth's Wobble continues to expand outward in a stable pattern. As can be expected (by looking at the history of the Wobble Track), the Earth's Wobble is currently receiving a boost of energy from the Earth's Perihelion moment with the Sun. Since the Earth is closer to the Sun at this moment, solar gravity is tugging in phase slightly more strongly on the heavy side of the Earth (the Southern Hemisphere).  As a result the track of Polar Motion is now clearly showing a marked acceleration in the outward, expansionary movement of its spiral track.  This is all normal. The Spin Axis is currently located in the longitude quadrant of the Russian Far East moving rapidly towards Alaska..

 

[11-12-07 ECB] WOBBLE TRACKER SOFTWARE IMPROVED.  Davis Chapman graciously upgraded the WobbleTracker Software in a way which makes it easier to use and more analytically powerful for plotting exact date sequences.  Anyone who has previously purchased WobbleTracker is eligible for an upgrade which I will email as a zip file.

 

Mouse arrow cursor points toward the latest location of Spin Axis

Image is from WobbleTracker software, drawn by MWM

Graph Scale is set to 1.0 arcseconds, Grid Size = 0.05 arcseconds
Time Domain as shown in upper right hand corner
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All movement is counter-clockwise.
 

This chart shows the location of the North Spin Axis relative to the “map coordinates” which were established at the end of the 19th century.  A drift of over 50 feet since 1900 in the circular track of Chandler’s Wobble is shown in this chart.  This drift is the primary cause of the acceleration in Earth’s tectonic activity. In order to “parallel” the way in which geophysicists create and record the Earth’s polar location geo-reference system, this graph shows the negative numbers opposite to the manner which they are typically drawn in school books.  –X is shown on the top half, and this corresponds to the direction of the Pacific Hemisphere.  –Y is shown on the right side and this corresponds to the Eurasian Land Mass.  X= Longitude 0, which is the Greenwich Meridian which bisects through England; +Y= Longitude West 90,  which bisects through the Great Lakes (North America).

NEW CHART RELEASE WHICH PROVES THAT POLAR MOTION PHASES REGULATE EL NINO (and probably the other climate oscillations in the Northern Atlantic and the Indian Oceans): To see the chart Click Here! Composed fresh for the revised edition of the Return of the Phoenix, a new expanded chart shows the track of Earth's Wobble up and down the Greenwich Meridian (called the X Axis of polar motion by geophysicists) for the period 1890-2006.  For additional details go to Wobble Almanac.

WORLD & REGIONAL WEATHER: Storm Fronts, Hurricanes, El Nino & La Nina, Drought & Fire, Global Warming

 Links to:  ALMANAC  |  CLIMATE  GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

 

SUMMARY ASSESSMENT

 

[3-17-08 ECB]  Continue to expect the unexpected.  Chaotic patterns still rule widely but most patterns are "settling" into moderation.  The Spring Equinox, however, it likely to be fairly stormy. 

 

The Ocean Climate Regimes (relative to averages)

 

LA NINA

[3-17-08 ECB]  Still dissolving and now nearly gone.  The Equatorial Pacific is still warming slowly on the western side but the eastern side along Peru is warming rapidly.  Thus La Nina, as predicted hear for many months,  may be replaced by a sudden onset of El Nino, even as early as this April (late in the month) or May.  The potential for this easily can be seen in the current progressive firming up of much warmer than normal sea surface temperature off the coast of Ecuador..

 

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION

[2-17-08 ECB]  Appears to be about the same as prior weeks.  Weakly present, not strong, still dissapating.

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NORTH PACIFIC GYRE HOTSPOT

[2-17-08 ECB] The North Pacific Gyre Hotspot is waning.

 

The weather pattern for Spring 2008 will likely be fairly moderate, not seriously influenced by the ocean climate regimes.  But weather averages will be pushed slightly to the higher latitudes to reflect the Global Warming effect.

 

EL NINO (forming up???)

[3-10-08 ECB] PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT EL NINO:  It will onset quickly directly out of La Nina and it MAY be one of the strongest of record.  It also probably will be a longer than normal El Nino. This is based purely on the higher than ever tempo of earthquake and volcanic activity around the world during 2006 and 2007.  The increased heat flux from the East Pacific Rift will eventually make its way to the surface and produce the typical El Nino hot Equator.

 

For More Information On Dynamics and Predictions Of  The Ocean Climate Regimes & El Nino / La Nina:  GO TO THE WEATHER/CLIMATE ALMANAC

 

GLOBAL WARMING SYNDROME:  Far more probable than not, the first half of 2007 has brought a serious surge of heat through the Great Rifts in the bottom of the oceans.   It is likely that this is still continuing and it may continue throughout 2008.  The telling sign is the spurt of Great Rift quakes which come and go in waves.  These all indicate movements which marine geologists are nearly certain indicate extensive magma dikes and lava flows in or very close to the Great Rift Valleys.  This activity during the first half of 2007 likely will feed a new round of heat into the oceanic climate system during the next 36 months and thus over-all Global Warming will continue to surge upwards.  This pattern, as of January 08, may still be underway.

 

The increased heat energy in the climate system along the broad middle of the Earth ( from the tropics which supplies the juice which powers the air conditioner of your weather) is causing the flow of air more rapidly in greater volumes into the north and south out of the Equatorial zone.  Warm air travels further to the North (or South) and pushes increased cold air to flow out of the polar zones (your cooling coils).  The more Global Warming, the more intense and stormy will be both Winter and Summer, the Winter cooler, the Summer hotter, with more power in all storms.  The primary consistent barometer of all of this:  the melting of the Arctic Ice.

 

SOURCE: NOAA

The key to dynamic change is the bottom graph which displays the "out of average" readings.  This allows us to quickly spot the extremes which are forming up in the various oceanic climate regimes.  It is a lot cheaper and easier than using supercomputers.

 

Seasonal Color Map Graphs - Predict Rain and Temperatures For North America For The Year Ahead – Science Is Finally Catching Up With Farmer’s Almanac.  Go here to get updated on the likely rain and temperature forecast.  This one currently on the web is essentially based on a La Nina forecast. 

 

HURRICANES

VERDICT IS IN:  I think that we are we seeing that it is hard to get up a decent hurricane without some sunspot stimulation. With the virtual death of the hurricane season at more or less Solar Minima during 2007, I think we have the verdict now in.  This is a very interesting development. 

NOAA EAST PACIFIC  Latest Facts & Forecast Updated every 12 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

NOAA WEST ATLANTIC  Latest Facts & Forecast Updated every 12 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

 

FROM THIS, A PREDICTION FOR THE 2008 & 2009 SEASONS:  Despite the nasty tornado onset during early 2008, the atmosphere will begin to settle down during late Spring and tornado activity will return to more normal levels.  Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin will be lower than average, on par with 2007.   Strong storms and more of them will begin to be seen in 2009 and reach a crescendo in 2010/2011.

 

 

GEOTECTONIC ACTIVITY: Volcanoes, Shape Shifting, Earthquakes

Links to:  ALMANAC  |  GEOTECTONIC  GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

 

Al, you there?  Here is the primary signal of the tectonic motion which is creating Global Warming.

 

EARTHQUAKE TRENDS & THE CHANGE IN THE EARTH

Links to:  ALMANAC  |  QUAKE GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

 

Click here to see the latest graphs of the Global Quake Trend
(fourfold increase during the past 30 years)

 

EARTHQUAKES CURRENT:

[3-17-08 ECB]   After a brief and quite mild surge in activity for Class 4+ quakes on March 15 and 16 (for the Perigee and Extreme Northern Declination), earthquake activity Class 4+ at the current time has fallen a little below average.  This is likely to hold for a few days until the Moon cycles into Full Moon Syzygy on March 21/22.   Look thus for a lulling at this moment and an increase beginning about March 20 and lasting with up and down through to about March 24.

 

 

CLICK ON IMAGES FOR EXPANDED VIEW; red indicates quakes 4+ during the previous 24 hours, orange during previous day, yellow during the previous two weeks, violet during the past 15 years

 

 

SEISMIC MONITOR BY IRIS
 

Best to go here below and click for the latest dynamic page with explanations of the symbols and large displays of regions of the Earth (these are "at the moment" charts):  http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

Last Seven Days - for earthquakes worldwide magnitude 4.0 plus and U.S. territorial magnitude 2.5 plus; for source list see http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

 

CONCERNING DATABASE FILES OF QUAKE CATALOGS:
The EC Bulletins is now using  ONLY THE "ANSS COMPOSITE QUAKE CATALOG" for stats - The ANSS is the evolved transformation of the CSSC system based at Berkeley California where the geophysicists have been collecting data since the beginning of the seismograph technology.  The USGS databases are derived from the ANSS catalogs and the IRIS group above is attempting to provide a scientific display network for access to current information about current earthquakes (for the last 30 days).

 

SHAPESHIFTING:  ACTIVITY LAST YEAR WAS VERY HIGH.

Shape-shifter quakes indicate the spreading of the Rift Valley, the creation of new crust through magma dikes which fills in the cracks of the Great Rift, and hence the inevitable forcing of the Earth’s crust to change its shape to adjust for the new crust.  Most subduction zone quakes (such as in the Pacific Rim of Fire) probably occur as a consequence of the shape-shifting of the Earth. The outlines of the tectonic plates and the Great Rift can be be seen in the violet color in this chart above.  For a chart of Earth’s Tectonic Plates, go to: http://www.iris.edu/seismon/html/plates.html

 

M 5+ earthquakes, past 7 days RSS 2.0 CAP
The USGS RSS Feed, which is constantly changing its content, can be accessed at:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/eqs7day-M5.xml