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Geophysical Watch

Monitoring The Changes In The Earth
for the prior seven days ending on

February 4, 2008

Topics including but not limited to: 

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GEOPHYSICAL WATCH

The Changes In
Our Sacred Body
Without these things we die,
thus these things compose our true body.

|  Earth's Wobble  |  World Weather  |  Earthquakes  |  Volcanism  |

EARTH'S WOBBLE -  POLAR MOTION: Spin Axis, Magnetic Poles

 Links to:  ALMANAC  |  WOBBLE GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

[2-4-08 ECB]  POLAR MOTION:  Polar Motion is now apparently normal.

[1-28-08 ECB]  POLAR MOTION:  As reported January 27 in the "Pivot Point" Bulletin (see Yahoo Archives), the Earth was apparently at tectonic standstill on Saturday/Sunday (almost 0 seismic activity 4+, ultra-low activity in the range of 2.5-4)) while the Earth's tilted axis orientation (fixed on Polaris) began to recede from the orbital Perihelion point and thus begin the shift of the orientations of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres toward the Sun.  Otherwise, no significant change from previous reports.  The Spiral Track of Earth's Wobble continues to expand outward in a stable pattern. As can be expected (by looking at the history of the Wobble Track), the Earth's Wobble is currently receiving a boost of energy from the Earth's Perihelion moment with the Sun. Since the Earth is closer to the Sun at this moment, solar gravity is tugging in phase slightly more strongly on the heavy side of the Earth (the Southern Hemisphere).  As a result the track of Polar Motion is now clearly showing a marked acceleration in the outward, expansionary movement of its spiral track.  This is all normal. The Spin Axis is currently located in the longitude quadrant of the Russian Far East moving rapidly towards Alaska..

[11-12-07 ECB] WOBBLE TRACKER SOFTWARE IMPROVED.  Davis Chapman graciously upgraded the WobbleTracker Software in a way which makes it easier to use and more analytically powerful for plotting exact date sequences.  Anyone who has previously purchased WobbleTracker is eligible for an upgrade which I will email as a zip file.

Mouse arrow cursor points toward the latest location of Spin Axis

watch out for wordwrap on this url:  http://www.michaelmandeville.com/
earthchanges/bulletin/2008/wobble/wobbletrac_2-4-2008.gif

Image is from WobbleTracker software, drawn by MWM

Graph Scale is set to 1.0 arcseconds, Grid Size = 0.05 arcseconds
Time Domain as shown in upper right hand corner.
All movement is counter-clockwise.
 

This chart shows the location of the North Spin Axis relative to the “map coordinates” which were established at the end of the 19^th century.  A drift of over 50 feet since 1900 in the circular track of Chandler’s Wobble is shown in this chart.  This drift is the primary cause of the acceleration in Earth’s tectonic activity. In order to “parallel” the way in which geophysicists create and record the Earth’s polar location geo-reference system, this graph shows the negative numbers opposite to the manner which they are typically drawn in school books.  –X is shown on the top half, and this corresponds to the direction of the Pacific Hemisphere.  –Y is shown on the right side and this corresponds to the Eurasian Land Mass.  X= Longitude 0, which is the Greenwich Meridian which bisects through England; +Y= Longitude West 90,  which bisects through the Great Lakes (North America).

NEW CHART RELEASE WHICH PROVES THAT POLAR MOTION PHASES REGULATE EL NINO (and probably the other climate oscillations in the Northern Atlantic and the Indian Oceans): To see the chart Click Here! Composed fresh for the revised edition of the Return of the Phoenix, a new expanded chart shows the track of Earth's Wobble up and down the Greenwich Meridian (called the X Axis of polar motion by geophysicists) for the period 1890-2006.  For additional details go to Wobble Almanac.

WORLD & REGIONAL WEATHER: Storm Fronts, Hurricanes, El Nino & La Nina, Drought & Fire, Global Warming

 Links to:  ALMANAC  |  CLIMATE  GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

SUMMARY ASSESSMENT

[2-4-08 ECB]  Little change from last week's post except for more rain and snow.  Another 2 inches of rain in the Sonoran Desert Plain this past 96 hours.  This is going to produce a prolific wild flower bloom throughout the PSW in early March - probably will be a great time to visit because weather should clear up generally for a few weeks.  Most drought patterns have broken in North America, the unexpected rules everywhere.  Many places will remember this winter.  Chaos will continue to rule February but weather will moderate in March.

[1-28-08 ECB]  In North America chaos still rules and like December and January so far, is likely to sucker punch the land masses of the Northern Hemisphere repeatedly in the weeks ahead from both oceanic sides.  But a cooler Pacific along the coastal area of North America DID NOT wall off the PSW as projected last week.   In fact, portions of the Sonoran Desert Plain received 3 inches of rain during the past 48 hours and it is still raining in many areas off and on.  This is sure to cause some floods in the PSW during the next few days as well as support a prolific wild flower bloom in late February and early March.  No drought here, that's for sure. Apparently this condition will continue.  As projected here the past two weeks, Central California through to Oregon become the highway express for marine air brought in by a low latitude Jet Stream.  Large rainstorms and snowfalls throughout the Western U.S., especially in the coastal zones.  Be ready for anything. Remember these key words to get the syndrome memory in your head:  this is classic La Nina Mild Winter in the Global Warming Syndrome.  In this condition winters are colder, summers warmer, transition seasons are  longer, and average oceanic temperature is rising, especially in the Arctic, melting more and more ice.  Simple.

The Ocean Climate Regimes (relative to averages)

Pacific zones have polarized with cooler surfaces in the Eastern half, warmer surfaces in the western half.  Southern Hemisphere is now hotter than normal in the centers of every ocean basin while  North Atlantic basins cool.  Along the Equator in the Pacific, La Nina FINALLY is clearly waning.  Currently the North Pacific Gyre is nearly uniform and only a little above average in surface heat but this is probably the source of the energy which is driving the North Pacific Jet Stream into an extreme torque, first far to the North into nearly the Arctic and then far to the South over southern Utah.  Unpredictable undulations in this  extreme torque is most likely the main source of the chaotic winter weather shifts.

LA NINA

[2-4-08 ECB]  Now dissolving slowly.

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION

[2-4-08 ECB]  The elevated heat level is now disappearing rapidly.  The current Winter regime over Eurasia will become increasing normal.

.

NORTH PACIFIC GYRE HOTSPOT

[2-4-08 ECB] The North Pacific Gyre Hotspot is now holding stable with slightly warmer water than average. The weather pattern for Winter 2008 will likely be classical La Nina Syndrome, but weather averages will be pushed slightly to the higher latitudes to reflect the Global Warming effect.

EL NINO (not currently active)

I am loosing confidence in this prediction, I will probably revise it very soon. [10-1-07 ECB] PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT EL NINO:  It will onset quickly directly out of the La Nina and it will be one of the strongest of record.  It also probably will be a longer than normal El Nino. This is based purely on the higher than ever tempo of earthquake and volcanic activity around the world during 2006 and 2007, plus the greater number of major quakes (6+) in the Great Rift this year. The increased heat flux from the East Pacific Rift will eventually make its way to the surface and produce the typical El Nino hot Equator.

For More Information On Dynamics and Predictions Of  The Ocean Climate Regimes & El Nino / La Nina:  GO TO THE WEATHER/CLIMATE ALMANAC

GLOBAL WARMING SYNDROME:  Far more probable than not, the first half of 2007 has brought a serious surge of heat through the Great Rifts in the bottom of the oceans.   It is likely that this is still continuing and it may continue throughout 2008.  The telling sign is the spurt of Great Rift quakes which come and go in waves.  These all indicate movements which marine geologists are nearly certain indicate extensive magma dikes and lava flows in or very close to the Great Rift Valleys.  This activity during the first half of 2007 likely will feed a new round of heat into the oceanic climate system during the next 36 months and thus over-all Global Warming will continue to surge upwards.  This pattern, as of January 08, may still be underway.

The increased heat energy in the climate system along the broad middle of the Earth ( from the tropics which supplies the juice which powers the air conditioner of your weather) is causing the flow of air more rapidly in greater volumes into the north and south out of the Equatorial zone.  Warm air travels further to the North (or South) and pushes increased cold air to flow out of the polar zones (your cooling coils).  The more Global Warming, the more intense and stormy will be both Winter and Summer, the Winter cooler, the Summer hotter, with more power in all storms.  The primary consistent barometer of all of this:  the melting of the Arctic Ice.

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthchanges/bulletin/sst/gsstanim_2-4-08.gif

The key to dynamic change is the bottom graph which displays the "out of average" readings.  This allows us to quickly spot the extremes which are forming up in the various oceanic climate regimes.  It is a lot cheaper and easier than using supercomputers.

Seasonal Color Map Graphs - Predict Rain and Temperatures For North America For The Year Ahead – Science Is Finally Catching Up With Farmer’s Almanac.  Go here to get updated on the likely rain and temperature forecast.  This one currently on the web is essentially based on a La Nina forecast. 

HURRICANES

VERDICT IS IN:  I think that we are we seeing that it is hard to get up a decent hurricane without some sunspot stimulation. With the virtual death of the hurricane season at more or less Solar Minima during 2007, I think we have the verdict now in.  This is a very interesting development. 

NOAA EAST PACIFIC  Latest Facts & Forecast Updated every 12 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

NOAA WEST ATLANTIC  Latest Facts & Forecast Updated every 12 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

 

GEOTECTONIC ACTIVITY: Volcanoes, Shape Shifting, Earthquakes

Links to:  ALMANAC  |  GEOTECTONIC  GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

Al, you there?  Here is the primary signal of the tectonic motion which is creating Global Warming.

EARTHQUAKE TRENDS & THE CHANGE IN THE EARTH

Links to:  ALMANAC  |  QUAKE GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

Click here to see the latest graphs of the Global Quake Trend
(fourfold increase during the past 30 years)

EARTHQUAKES CURRENT:

[2-4-08 ECB]   Earthquake activity Class 4+ is about average with an elevated level of 6+ quakes during the past 48 hours. Two quakes struck in the Southern Hemisphere at the peak of the Extreme Southern Declination in the position of the Moon. 

CLICK ON IMAGES FOR EXPANDED VIEW; red indicates quakes 4+ during the previous 24 hours, orange during previous day, yellow during the previous two weeks, violet during the past 15 years

SEISMIC MONITOR BY IRIS
 http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2006/quakes/worldquakes_IRIS_2-4-08.gif

Best to go here below and click for the latest dynamic page with explanations of the symbols and large displays of regions of the Earth (these are "at the moment" charts):  http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

Last Seven Days - for earthquakes worldwide magnitude 4.0 plus and U.S. territorial magnitude 2.5 plus; for source list see http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

CONCERNING DATABASE FILES OF QUAKE CATALOGS:
The EC Bulletins is now using  ONLY THE "ANSS COMPOSITE QUAKE CATALOG" for stats - The ANSS is the evolved transformation of the CSSC system based at Berkeley California where the geophysicists have been collecting data since the beginning of the seismograph technology.  The USGS databases are derived from the ANSS catalogs and the IRIS group above is attempting to provide a scientific display network for access to current information about current earthquakes (for the last 30 days).

SHAPESHIFTING:  ACTIVITY LAST YEAR WAS VERY HIGH.

Shape-shifter quakes indicate the spreading of the Rift Valley, the creation of new crust through magma dikes which fills in the cracks of the Great Rift, and hence the inevitable forcing of the Earth’s crust to change its shape to adjust for the new crust.  Most subduction zone quakes (such as in the Pacific Rim of Fire) probably occur as a consequence of the shape-shifting of the Earth. The outlines of the tectonic plates and the Great Rift can be be seen in the violet color in this chart above.  For a chart of Earth’s Tectonic Plates, go to: http://www.iris.edu/seismon/html/plates.html

M 5+ earthquakes, past 7 days RSS 2.0 CAP
The USGS RSS Feed, which is constantly changing its content, can be accessed at:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/eqs7day-M5.xml

Other Datafeeds On Quakes:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/

TECTONIC MOTION QUAKE FORECAST:
Forecasts are based on Syzygy Windows which can be seen in the Lunar Ephemeris Charts.  Go to the Moon section to select your chart.

Occasionally the chart information is supplemented with data from Earth Sensitives, who include some humans and animals. For Earth Sensitive information, go to PamWiseman.com  For other Syzygy-type forecasts and a portal to other valuable approaches, see Syzygyjob.com

[2-4-2008]  The next 90 days is likely to see less and less likelihood of major quakes.  Danger zones will reappear in May and June Full or New Moon periods, and again in November and December.  The other months of the year will not be highly stressful syzygies and they are less likely to produce large and/or numerous quakes.

VOLCANISM

Links to:  ALMANAC  |  VOLCANO  GALLERY  |  EARTH MONITOR

Krakatau In Vigorous Eruption November, 2007
(also popularly known as Krakatoa)

For Some New Volcano Reports
as written by John Seach, See http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html  Reports are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT +10 hr).  Archived Volcano News  RSS

For Comprehensive Coverage Of New Eruptions
see the current eruptions profiles at the International Volcano Research Center

[2-4-08 ECB]  Volcanism was active in 26 volcanoes, up another 8% over the last week, bringing at least a 25% increase already for this Volcano Season.   Doubtless this Perihelion Surge is making for an active Volcano Season (first half of the year) during 2008.The Alert List now stands now at 68 with 3 on the Restless List.  The levels of activity appear to be about the same as last week, mostly in ash emissions and pyroclastic explosions  Kilauea STILL remains incredibly productive of lava flowing into the ocean.  Etna, an important herald, is still silent, not even on the active list, but Popo and Colima, along with all the regulars of last year on the Carib Plate, including Soufierre Hills, are still considered active, though mostly sedate within average bounds. Soufierre Hills and Colima are currently mostly silent.  Erebus, Stromboli, Yasur, and Arenal continue their long ever-lasting eruptions.  (These typically produce lava lakes, lava fountains, and strombolian explosions except that Kilauea's eruption mainly produces long lava flows into the Pacific Ocean). Watch Etna's summit, it will telegraph soon if the 2008 surge will be on par with 2006/2007. 2008 looks to be an interesting year for volcanoes and the forecast below may be too conservative.

Forecast:   1-7-08 ECB] In accordance with past wobble cycles and the general average trend of increase in volcanic activity, I expect that volcanic activity during 2008 will be about the same as 2007 or abate by a small percentage.

SUMMARY DATA FROM THE INTERNATIONAL VOLCANO RESEARCH CENTER: 

General Note:   INTLVRC reached a 100% rate of accuracy in predicting eruptions, the first time in their history since 1989.  They also documented 69 eruptions during 2005 and 2006, which most likely defines a peak plateau.  I expect to see even higher in 2007 (based on Wobble parallels) and then another plateauing for a couple years.  The year 2007 began with higher than normal numbers for "alert list" volcanoes.  The list generally begins the year in the range of 60 but it began the year at 71 for 2007, a record, and was at 73 just eight days into the year.  Activity going into 2008 is apparently about 10% lower.

Conclusions Independently Reached From Data At The International Volcano Research Center (INTLVRC)

http://www.intlvrc.org/

In early January the INTLVRC resets their counts.  They carried forward into 2007 16 volcanoes on the active list . Only 13 were carried forward as active into 2008 but within two weeks time the active list had swelled up to 20 .  Apparently the reset was too severe and a base number of 20 is more likely to be a better number..   Thus, the year probably began at about the same level as did 2007 or perhaps a little higher.  These are volcanoes  which more or less are continuously erupting.

[2-4-08]   Alert List = 68 (up two from last week)

[2-4-08]   Restless List = 3 (same as last week)

[2-4-08]   Active List = 26  - up two more in the past week - as can be see this number has already risen now by 25% within the space of three weeks. Doubtless this Perihelion Surge is making for an active Volcano Season (first half of the year) during 2008.

PREDICTING ERUPTIONS:

Side Note on INTLVRC's eruption prediction program.  

ERUPTION Pro 10.6    coming soon