Earth Changes Bulletin Weekly Update

GEOPHYSICAL WATCH

The Changes In
Our Sacred Body
Without these things we die,
thus these things compose our true body.

EARTH'S WOBBLE - POLAR MOTION: Spin Axis, Magnetic Poles

Links to: ALMANAC | WOBBLE GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR

[2-18-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: The track now shows some outward expansion as one would expect.

[2-11-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Polar Motion apparently is now deviating once again from a normal track. What has been a smooth outward expansion since March 2006 is now apparently too truncated to be called an expansionary spiral. It is "retarded" and parallels far too closely the spiral track of 14 months ago. It should be showing progressive enlargement, but this is no longer evident. There are two possible explanations. One is that this Seven Year Wobble Cycle will be smaller than normal (which happens frequently). Another possible explanation is that the Wobble is merely showing us that significant drift in the average location of the center of the wobble has been and is still underway, such that the spiral center is now drifting towards the left bottom of the chart (down towards about Longitude West 70-80). This the Wobble has also done before. A third possibility is that both factors are in play. Stay tuned, the Wobble continues to be more dynamic than anyone previously imagined.

[1-28-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: As reported January 27 in the "Pivot Point" Bulletin (see Yahoo Archives), the Earth was apparently at tectonic standstill on Saturday/Sunday (almost 0 seismic activity 4+, ultra-low activity in the range of 2.5-4)) while the Earth's tilted axis orientation (fixed on Polaris) began to recede from the orbital Perihelion point and thus begin the shift of the orientations of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres toward the Sun. Otherwise, no significant change from previous reports. The Spiral Track of Earth's Wobble continues to expand outward in a stable pattern. As can be expected (by looking at the history of the Wobble Track), the Earth's Wobble is currently receiving a boost of energy from the Earth's Perihelion moment with the Sun. Since the Earth is closer to the Sun at this moment, solar gravity is tugging in phase slightly more strongly on the heavy side of the Earth (the Southern Hemisphere). As a result the track of Polar Motion is now clearly showing a marked acceleration in the outward, expansionary movement of its spiral track. This is all normal. The Spin Axis is currently located in the longitude quadrant of the Russian Far East moving rapidly towards Alaska..

[11-12-07 ECB] WOBBLE TRACKER SOFTWARE IMPROVED. Davis Chapman graciously upgraded the WobbleTracker Software in a way which makes it easier to use and more analytically powerful for plotting exact date sequences. Anyone who has previously purchased WobbleTracker is eligible for an upgrade which I will email as a zip file.

Mouse arrow cursor points toward the latest location of Spin Axis

watch out for wordwrap on this url:
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/
earthchanges/bulletin/2008/wobble/wobbletrac_2-18-2008.gif

Image is from WobbleTracker software, drawn by MWM

Graph Scale is set to 1.0 arcseconds, Grid Size = 0.05 arcseconds
Time Domain as shown in upper right hand corner.
All movement is counter-clockwise.

This chart shows the location of the North Spin Axis relative to the “map coordinates” which were established at the end of the 19^th century. A drift of over 50 feet since 1900 in the circular track of Chandler’s Wobble is shown in this chart. This drift is the primary cause of the acceleration in Earth’s tectonic activity. In order to “parallel” the way in which geophysicists create and record the Earth’s polar location geo-reference system, this graph shows the negative numbers opposite to the manner which they are typically drawn in school books. –X is shown on the top half, and this corresponds to the direction of the Pacific Hemisphere. –Y is shown on the right side and this corresponds to the Eurasian Land Mass. X= Longitude 0, which is the Greenwich Meridian which bisects through England; +Y= Longitude West 90, which bisects through the Great Lakes (North America).

NEW CHART RELEASE WHICH PROVES THAT POLAR MOTION PHASES REGULATE EL NINO (and probably the other climate oscillations in the Northern Atlantic and the Indian Oceans): To see the chart Click Here! Composed fresh for the revised edition of the Return of the Phoenix, a new expanded chart shows the track of Earth's Wobble up and down the Greenwich Meridian (called the X Axis of polar motion by geophysicists) for the period 1890-2006. For additional details go to Wobble Almanac.

WORLD & REGIONAL WEATHER: Storm Fronts, Hurricanes, El Nino & La Nina, Drought & Fire, Global Warming

Links to: ALMANAC | CLIMATE GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR

SUMMARY ASSESSMENT

[2-11-08 ECB] Most drought patterns have broken in North America, extreme weather is dissipating, but the unexpected still rules everywhere. Chaos will continue to rule February but weather will moderate in March. Expect another stormy period in late February from the coming double-header planetary alignment.

The Ocean Climate Regimes (relative to averages)

Pacific zones have polarized with cooler surfaces in the Eastern half, warmer surfaces in the western half. Southern Hemisphere is now cooling in the centers of every ocean basin while North Atlantic basins are beginning to warm again. Along the Equator in the Pacific, La Nina may be waning but at the moment appears to be consolidating in the Central Pacific (area of the dateline) Currently the North Pacific Gyre is nearly uniform and has warmed substantially above average in surface heat during the last week of January and the first week of February. This is probably the source of the energy which is driving the North Pacific Jet Stream into an extreme torque, first far to the North into nearly the Arctic and then far to the South over southern Utah. Unpredictable undulations in this extreme torque is most likely the main source of the chaotic winter weather shifts.

LA NINA

[2-18-08 ECB] Not gone yet....appears to be holding on firmly in the Central Pacfiic.

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION

[2-18-08 ECB] Appears to be resurging with warmer water.

NORTH PACIFIC GYRE HOTSPOT

[2-18-08 ECB] The North Pacific Gyre Hotspot is now holding stable with warmer water than average.

The weather pattern for Winter 2008 will likely be classical La Nina Syndrome, but weather averages will be pushed slightly to the higher latitudes to reflect the Global Warming effect.

EL NINO (not currently active)

I am loosing confidence in this prediction, I will probably revise it very soon. [10-1-07 ECB] PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT EL NINO: It will onset quickly to directly out of the La Nina and it will be one of the strongest of record. It also probably will be a longer than normal El Nino. This is based purely on the higher than ever tempo of earthquake and volcanic activity around the world during 2006 and 2007, plus the greater number of major quakes (6+) in the Great Rift this year. The increased heat flux from the East Pacific Rift will eventually make its way to the surface and produce the typical El Nino hot Equator.

For More Information On Dynamics and Predictions Of The Ocean Climate Regimes & El Nino / La Nina: GO TO THE WEATHER/CLIMATE ALMANAC

GLOBAL WARMING SYNDROME: Far more probable than not, the first half of 2007 has brought a serious surge of heat through the Great Rifts in the bottom of the oceans. It is likely that this is still continuing and it may continue throughout 2008. The telling sign is the spurt of Great Rift quakes which come and go in waves. These all indicate movements which marine geologists are nearly certain indicate extensive magma dikes and lava flows in or very close to the Great Rift Valleys. This activity during the first half of 2007 likely will feed a new round of heat into the oceanic climate system during the next 36 months and thus over-all Global Warming will continue to surge upwards. This pattern, as of January 08, may still be underway.

The increased heat energy in the climate system along the broad middle of the Earth ( from the tropics which supplies the juice which powers the air conditioner of your weather) is causing the flow of air more rapidly in greater volumes into the north and south out of the Equatorial zone. Warm air travels further to the North (or South) and pushes increased cold air to flow out of the polar zones (your cooling coils). The more Global Warming, the more intense and stormy will be both Winter and Summer, the Winter cooler, the Summer hotter, with more power in all storms. The primary consistent barometer of all of this: the melting of the Arctic Ice.

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthchanges/bulletin/sst/gsstanim_2-18-08.gif

The key to dynamic change is the bottom graph which displays the "out of average" readings. This allows us to quickly spot the extremes which are forming up in the various oceanic climate regimes. It is a lot cheaper and easier than using supercomputers.

Seasonal Color Map Graphs - Predict Rain and Temperatures For North America For The Year Ahead – Science Is Finally Catching Up With Farmer’s Almanac. Go here to get updated on the likely rain and temperature forecast. This one currently on the web is essentially based on a La Nina forecast.

HURRICANES

VERDICT IS IN: I think that we are we seeing that it is hard to get up a decent hurricane without some sunspot stimulation. With the virtual death of the hurricane season at more or less Solar Minima during 2007, I think we have the verdict now in. This is a very interesting development.

NOAA EAST PACIFIC Latest Facts & Forecast Updated every 12 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

NOAA WEST ATLANTIC Latest Facts & Forecast Updated every 12 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

GEOTECTONIC ACTIVITY: Volcanoes, Shape Shifting, Earthquakes

Links to: ALMANAC | GEOTECTONIC GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR

Al, you there? Here is the primary signal of the tectonic motion which is creating Global Warming.

EARTHQUAKE TRENDS & THE CHANGE IN THE EARTH

Links to: ALMANAC | QUAKE GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR

Click here to see the latest graphs of the Global Quake Trend
(fourfold increase during the past 30 years)

EARTHQUAKES CURRENT:

[2-18-08 ECB] At the current time, earthquake activity Class 4+ is about average. Class 6+ quake activity was about double average frequency during most of the preceding week for the Perigee but has returned to normal about 48 hours ago. This is likely to hold for a few days until the Full Moon Syzygy of February 21/22. Look thus for a lulling at this moment and an increase about February 20.

CLICK ON IMAGES FOR EXPANDED VIEW; red indicates quakes 4+ during the previous 24 hours, orange during previous day, yellow during the previous two weeks, violet during the past 15 years

SEISMIC MONITOR BY IRIS
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2006/quakes/worldquakes_IRIS_2-11-08.gif

Best to go here below and click for the latest dynamic page with explanations of the symbols and large displays of regions of the Earth (these are "at the moment" charts): http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

Last Seven Days - for earthquakes worldwide magnitude 4.0 plus and U.S. territorial magnitude 2.5 plus; for source list see http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

CONCERNING DATABASE FILES OF QUAKE CATALOGS:
The EC Bulletins is now using ONLY THE "ANSS COMPOSITE QUAKE CATALOG" for stats - The ANSS is the evolved transformation of the CSSC system based at Berkeley California where the geophysicists have been collecting data since the beginning of the seismograph technology. The USGS databases are derived from the ANSS catalogs and the IRIS group above is attempting to provide a scientific display network for access to current information about current earthquakes (for the last 30 days).

SHAPESHIFTING: ACTIVITY LAST YEAR WAS VERY HIGH.

Shape-shifter quakes indicate the spreading of the Rift Valley, the creation of new crust through magma dikes which fills in the cracks of the Great Rift, and hence the inevitable forcing of the Earth’s crust to change its shape to adjust for the new crust. Most subduction zone quakes (such as in the Pacific Rim of Fire) probably occur as a consequence of the shape-shifting of the Earth. The outlines of the tectonic plates and the Great Rift can be be seen in the violet color in this chart above. For a chart of Earth’s Tectonic Plates, go to: http://www.iris.edu/seismon/html/plates.html

M 5+ earthquakes, past 7 days RSS 2.0 CAP
The USGS RSS Feed, which is constantly changing its content, can be accessed at:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/eqs7day-M5.xml

Other Datafeeds On Quakes:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/

TECTONIC MOTION QUAKE FORECAST:
Forecasts are based on Syzygy Windows which can be seen in the Lunar Ephemeris Charts. Go to the Moon section to select your chart.

Occasionally the chart information is supplemented with data from Earth Sensitives, who include some humans and animals. For Earth Sensitive information, go to PamWiseman.com For other Syzygy-type forecasts and a portal to other valuable approaches, see Syzygyjob.com

[2-4-2008] The next 90 days is likely to see less and less likelihood of major quakes. Danger zones will reappear in May and June Full or New Moon periods, and again in November and December. The other months of the year will not be highly stressful syzygies and they are less likely to produce large and/or numerous quakes.

VOLCANISM

Links to: ALMANAC | VOLCANO GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR

Krakatau In Vigorous Eruption November, 2007
(also popularly known as Krakatoa)

For Some New Volcano Reports
as written by John Seach, See http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html Reports are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT +10 hr). Archived Volcano News RSS

For Comprehensive Coverage Of New Eruptions
see the current eruptions profiles at the International Volcano Research Center

[2-18-08 ECB] After the surge of the prior two weeks, the number of active volcanoes more or less plateaued this past week and their eruptive activity apparently subsided a little. Less updates are being reported to the INTLVRC , the amount of ash seems less, and less lava is mentioned. The Active List increased by one to 30, the Restless List is still at 3, and the Alert List now lists 70, down one. By the next weekly update, the Full Moon is likely to have stirred up some additional activity.

[2-11-08 ECB] This lunation is pouring on the coals of the Changes In The Earth, as it were. A major surge of volcanic activity is underway. Volcanism was active in 29 volcanoes, up another3 over the last week, bringing at least a 45% increase already for this Volcano Season. Almost all report profiles for these 29 were updated within the past five days, which is highly unusual, indicating the reality of this surge which is generating ash emissions in at least 25 volcanoes, primarily around the Pacific Rim, with lava flows or strombolian explosions in the remainder. Doubtless this Perihelion Surge is making for an active Volcano Season (first half of the year) during 2008.The Alert List now stands now at 71 with 3 on the Restless List. The levels of activity appear in many cases to be significantly higher than last week, mostly in ash emissions and pyroclastic explosions. As is often said, when it rains, it pours. Kilauea STILL remains incredibly productive of lava flowing into the ocean and sulfur dioxide emissions have now become a serious issue for Hawaiians. Etna, an important herald, is still silent, not even on the active list at this moment. Popo and Colima, along with most of the regulars of last year on the Carib Plate, are definitely heating up Erebus, Stromboli, Yasur, and Arenal continue their long ever-lasting eruptions. (These typically produce lava lakes, lava fountains, and strombolian explosions except that Kilauea's eruption mainly produces long lava flows into the Pacific Ocean). Watch Etna's summit, it will telegraph soon if the 2008 surge will be on par with 2006/2007. 2008 looks to be an interesting year for volcanoes and the forecast below may be too conservative. In fact, I am already nearly ready to throw in the towel on this prediction in the next paragraph below. 2008 may be a record year.

Forecast: 1-7-08 ECB] In accordance with past wobble cycles and the general average trend of increase in volcanic activity, I expect that volcanic activity during 2008 will be about the same as 2007 or abate by a small percentage.

SUMMARY DATA FROM THE INTERNATIONAL VOLCANO RESEARCH CENTER:

General Note: INTLVRC reached a 100% rate of accuracy in predicting eruptions, the first time in their history since 1989. They also documented 69 eruptions during 2005 and 2006, which most likely defines a peak plateau. I expect to see even higher in 2007 (based on Wobble parallels) and then another plateauing for a couple years. The year 2007 began with higher than normal numbers for "alert list" volcanoes. The list generally begins the year in the range of 60 but it began the year at 71 for 2007, a record, and was at 73 just eight days into the year. Activity going into 2008 is apparently about 10% lower.

Conclusions Independently Reached From Data At The International Volcano Research Center (INTLVRC)

http://www.intlvrc.org/

In early January the INTLVRC resets their counts. They carried forward into 2007 16 volcanoes on the active list . Only 13 were carried forward as active into 2008 but within two weeks time the active list had swelled up to 20 . Apparently the reset was too severe and a base number of 20 is more likely to be a better number.. Thus, the year probably began at about the same level as did 2007 or perhaps a little higher. These are volcanoes which more or less are continuously erupting.

[2-18-08] Alert List = 70 (down one from last week)

[2-18-08] Restless List = 3 (same as last week)

[2-18-08] Active List = 30 - up one more in the past week - as can be see this number has already risen now by 45% within the space of about five weeks. Doubtless this Perihelion Surge is making for an active Volcano Season (first half of the year) during 2008.

PREDICTING ERUPTIONS:

Side Note on INTLVRC's eruption prediction program.

ERUPTION Pro 10.6 coming soon

For Some New Volcano Reports as written by John Seach, See http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html Reports are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT +10 hr). Archived Volcano News RSS

For Comprehensive Coverage Of New Eruptions see the current eruptions profiles at the International Volcano Research Center

SUMMARY DATA FROM THE INTERNATIONAL VOLCANO RESEARCH CENTER:

PREDICTING ERUPTIONS:

For Some New Volcano Reports
as written by John Seach, See http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html Reports are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT +10 hr). Archived Volcano News RSS

For Comprehensive Coverage Of New Eruptions
see the current eruptions profiles at the International Volcano Research Center