Monitoring The Changes In The Earth
October 20, 2008
Earth's Wobble - Polar Motion - True Polar Wander - La Nina - El Nino - Ocean Climate Regimes - North Atlantic Oscillation - North Pacific Gyre - Pacific Equator - World Weather - Earthquakes - Volcanism - Hurricanes - Global Warming Syndrome Earthquakes Volcanoes Drought Fire Tectonic Shape-shifting Syzygy Predictions
Mouse arrow cursor points toward the latest location of Spin Axis
Mouse arrow cursor points toward the latest location of Spin Axis
Image is from WobbleTracker software, drawn by MWM
Graph Scale is set to 1.0 arcseconds, Grid Size =
0.05 arcseconds Time Domain as shown in upper left hand corner .
Time Domain as shown in upper left hand corner
This chart shows the location of the North Spin
Axis relative to the “map coordinates” which were established at the end of
the 19th century. A drift
of over 50 feet since 1900 in the circular track of
[10-20-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: - no new news
[8-4-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: - no new news since 7-21, the spiral track of the wobble continues on its progression more or less in a normal manner. One can see even more plainly that the North (-) and South (+) track of the wobble on the X Axis describes a bias of movement which is greater than the horizontal movement (east-west). This bias displays the fact that the Southern Hemisphere of the Earth is slightly heavier than the Northern Hemisphere. The larger the "swing" of the wobble track, the more the bias can be easily observed.
[7-28-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: - no new news since 7-21
[7-21-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: The wobble spiral continues to expand but we can now see is this latest 14 month spiral track that the wobble may be displaying a fairly definite "sidedness" in the spin wobble. From the perspective of Greenwich Meridian, which the 0 line of the X Axis (shown in bold), the Earth appears to bob to the North and South (vertically on the graph) more easily than it bobs to the East and West (horizontally on the graph). This parallels the tendency we noticed very strongly in January 2006, which is shown by the short North-South spike in the center of the spirals. PLEASE NOTE HOWEVER, that this sidedness may be partly an illusion created by a spiral track which is expanding now more rapidly than it has during the prior two years. It may take another two years to resolve whether or not this is an illusion or a real "lean" in the wobble.
[5-19-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Not much new news. Only this: the current track of the North Spin (for the past 14 month) demonstrates a small expansion than is more typical and it also demonstrates an oblong (out of round) shape. It is as if the wobble is a little squashed at roughly its 90 degree graph axis. The slightly small size of the wobble's spiral track is within historical variation but the somewhat oblong or perhaps elliptical shape is difficult to compare with previous three-year wobble expansion phases.
[4-7-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Again, no change from prior weeks. There remains some apparent tendency to truncation of the spiral track on the Y Axis. Movement up and down the X Axis appears slightly easier for the Earth's crust than than movement on the Y Axis. This pattern we have been observing since the wobble "freeze" of January 2005.
[2-18-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: The track now shows some outward expansion as one would expect.
[2-11-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Polar Motion apparently is now deviating once again from a normal track. What has been a smooth outward expansion since March 2006 is now apparently too truncated to be called an expansionary spiral. It is "retarded" and parallels far too closely the spiral track of 14 months ago. It should be showing progressive enlargement, but this is no longer evident. There are two possible explanations. One is that this Seven Year Wobble Cycle will be smaller than normal (which happens frequently). Another possible explanation is that the Wobble is merely showing us that significant drift in the average location of the center of the wobble has been and is still underway, such that the spiral center is now drifting towards the left bottom of the chart (down towards about Longitude West 70-80). This the Wobble has also done before. A third possibility is that both factors are in play. Stay tuned, the Wobble continues to be more dynamic than anyone previously imagined.
[1-28-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: As reported January 27 in the "Pivot Point" Bulletin (see Yahoo Archives), the Earth was apparently at tectonic standstill on Saturday/Sunday (almost 0 seismic activity 4+, ultra-low activity in the range of 2.5-4)) while the Earth's tilted axis orientation (fixed on Polaris) began to recede from the orbital Perihelion point and thus begin the shift of the orientations of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres toward the Sun. Otherwise, no significant change from previous reports. The Spiral Track of Earth's Wobble continues to expand outward in a stable pattern. As can be expected (by looking at the history of the Wobble Track), the Earth's Wobble is currently receiving a boost of energy from the Earth's Perihelion moment with the Sun. Since the Earth is closer to the Sun at this moment, solar gravity is tugging in phase slightly more strongly on the heavy side of the Earth (the Southern Hemisphere). As a result the track of Polar Motion is now clearly showing a marked acceleration in the outward, expansionary movement of its spiral track. This is all normal. The Spin Axis is currently located in the longitude quadrant of the Russian Far East moving rapidly towards Alaska..
NEW CHART RELEASE WHICH PROVES THAT POLAR MOTION PHASES REGULATE EL NINO (and probably the other climate oscillations in the Northern Atlantic and the Indian Oceans): To see the chart Click Here! Composed fresh for the revised edition of the Return of the Phoenix, a new expanded chart shows the track of Earth's Wobble up and down the Greenwich Meridian (called the X Axis of polar motion by geophysicists) for the period 1890-2006. For additional details go to Wobble Almanac.
[9-1-08] GENERAL INTENT: The volume of weather material is beyond my ability to track as I shift my focus more militantly to finish my book projects. I am going to update this section by trimming this section severely.
[9-1-08] TREMENDOUS INSIGHT: The weather chaos and unusual patterns may be primarily generated BY THE ACCELERATION OF THE JET STREAM AND THE ARTIC AIR MASS GYRE. Nobody's noticing it because nobody is looking there.
LATEST HURRICANE SEASON UPDATE
As Of August 2008 - Hurricane Center is still predicting an above normal hurricane season.
Atlantic Storm Tracks & Advisories: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
USN Advisories This Date
I use NASA for Atlantic, USN for the remainder of the world
Most items in this list are clickable
[10-20-08] El Nino and La Nina are not in evidence. This is technically called an ENSO neutral phase year. Many El Nino models have flunked this year. So did the National Hurricane Center Hurricane predictions. All surface waters in the Northern Hemisphere are progressively losing their anomalous heat and becoming statistically "average". The Southern Hemisphere near the Equatorial Pacific is slightly cooler then average. Hurricane season has collapsed in most zones, no major oceanic storm fronts are building up except for one in the Southwestern Pacific and two in the Indian Ocean, only one of which is of hurricane strength. Southwestern Coast of North America will generally be drier and hotter than average and this is expected to persist for the next three months. Drought continues in Southern California/Nevada. Rocky Mountain Plateau will also be hotter and drier than average.
[9-29-08] Generally, conditions are moderate in North America and through much of the Northern Hemisphere. All in all, not much change from last week. The El Nino sea surface temperature trend has collapsed and virtually disappeared, equatorial air mass flow is stagnant, the North Atlantic Oscillation zone is cooling, as is the North Pacific. Hurricane season is resting in the Atlantic and East Pacific, continental weather in N.A. is expected to be dry and generally warmer than normal. Once again, the coast of British Columbia and Alaska will be battered by wet North Pacific marine air pushed onshore by the high-flying Jet Stream, which will carry some of the moisture and energy across the Rockies into the northern prairie plains of N.A. The North Pacific gyre, working with the current Jet Stream, will likely continue to deliver day long broadsides to the western coast of North America from Vancouver, Canada to the Yukon and Alaska for many days, one after another. Old Farmer's Almanac expects a cold, early Winter. I expect chaotic patterns because of the lack of Solar entrainment and the noticeable shift of geophysical entrainment of the Northern atmosphere into the Artic and North Pacific Gyres.
IKE surprised everyone except NOAA. It ended up battering the Capital of the Oil Empire with enormous destruction. NOAA predicted IKE would strike the North Gulf Coast. I predicted IKE was weakening and would hit Mexico. We were both wrong, but NOAA was definitely much closer to the mark. Nothing threatening is currently on the screens in the central Atlantic or the East Pacific. A huge gyre in the North Pacific remains somewhat near the Aleutian Islands, though the patterns are now pretty chaotic. Equatorial air movement is virtually stagnant while very strong Jet Stream is shoving massive quantities of Pacific marine air into the Canadian flat Arctic prairies, which mixes with Arctic air and is expelled over Newfoundland towards Europe, especially towards Ireland and Portugal. The North Atlantic Oscillation (warmer than normal surface temperatures in the North Atlantic) probably provides part of the energy in this system, but it is loosing energy (it has been clouded over for weeks) and the sea temperatures are falling.
This North Pacific gyre will likely continue to deliver another massive broadside to the coast of North America from Vancouver, Canada to the Yukon and Alaska. A lot more moisture is coming from the North Pacific Gyre Hotspot across North America, even perhaps early Snow in the high elevations and latitudes, but from Oregon to San Diego, everything remains hot and in drought, which NOAA predicts will persist for at least another week (and perhaps all Fall). Chaos is now emerging widely throughout the Pacific and anything seasonal trends seems impossible to figure out at this moment. El Nino formation is definitely stalled. In general, NOAA believes this year is going to be hotter and drier than normal for much of North America but the patterns are likely to make sudden, chaotic shifts. Despite this, the PSW got a decently wet Monsoon and you can see the results everywhere. Old Farmer's Almanac expects a cold, early Winter. I expect chaotic patterns because of the lack of Solar entrainment and the noticeable shift of geophysical entrainment of the Northern atmosphere into the Artic and North Pacific Gyres, but probably nothing much extreme at this time.
For more, see the NOAA National Climate Prediction Center
These are great charts which lays it all out very well for
SUMMARY ASSESSMENTS as of October 20 2008
IN GENERAL- After an early dud, a modest Atlantic Hurricane Season is actually beginning to come on stream, though NOAA's predictions have not proven to be very good for this season. More likely than not, Atlantic hurricane season will remain lackluster.
Well, maybe not, if you live in Galveston. Sorry about that.
FOR THIS YEAR, THE EXTREMES IN CYCLONES, TORNADOES, AND FLOODS PLAINLY AND ABSOLUTELY ARE NOT A RESULT OF STIMULUS FROM THE SUN NOR NATURAL NOR HUMAN-CAUSED CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. This can only by Global Warming Syndrome, showing us what the new weather "normal" is becoming as the Earth's oceans continue to gradually warm.
The Ocean Climate Regimes (relative to averages)
NEW PREDICTION TOOL BY NOAA PEOPLE - THEY ARE GETTING MORE POWERFUL IN THE ART - EVEN IF THEIR PRESENTATION IS STILL A LITTLE TOO OBSCURE FOR GENERAL READERS - MAY BE WORTH A LOOK:
Most likely Atlantic hurricane seasons will not become record-makers again until 2010, but as we saw in Myanmar, another nasty punch or two this year is entirely possible. The result will be pretty much pure "Global Warming" syndrome, mightily influenced throughout the Northern Hemisphere by the North Central Pacific Gyre, with occasional peaking of storm intensity by surges in Solar Activity (but Solar Activity looks like it is going to be minor for the next few months).
[7-28-08] EL NINO Latest Summary By NOAA
Click here for complete version of NOAA's latest ENSO Assessment: Weekly Update: On Monday the CPC updates in two different formats: a PowerPoint and a PDF presentation. They present the recent trends and change, summaryize the current status and and give predictions of conditions in the tropical Pacific related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle for the year ahead.
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
[8-18-08 ECB] About the same. My Irish correspondent reports that the Irish summer has been anything but normal, strongly freakishly extreme at times, she reports. I am not sure what is going on there.
NORTH PACIFIC GYRE HOTSPOT
[8-18-08 ECB] About the same. Notice that huge patches of much warmer than normal water have also firmed up near the volcanic zones of Japan, the Kuriles, Kamchatka, and the Aleutians. HERE IS GLOBAL WARMING FOLKS!!!! Look at the Southern Hemisphere. Compare contrast. The Arctic has a melting problem. Not so much the Antarctic.
IS THIS SURPRISING? No, it is exactly what you would expect. Is it surprising that the world's textbooks, even at the college level, DO NOT ACCURATELY DESCRIBE THE FUNDAMENTAL MECHANISM OF ELECTROLYSIS, one of the simplest chemical reactions? (the academics say ions form in the water and flow to appropriately polarized plate - but not true, it is easy to observe that the water acts as a unitary crystal and the ions form directly on the appropriate plate and then rise up along the plate towards the top of the medium, hence the gasses are formed separately). Not surprising to me anymore. If institutional scientists cannot get that correct, how can we expect them to get Global Warming right? How many academics actually LOOK at what they are talking about? We can see in the behavior of the world oceans and climate regimes EXACTLY HOW GLOBAL WARMING IS OCCURRING BUT FEW PEOPLE ACTUALLY LOOK AT THE FLUX OF CHANGE LIKE WE ARE DOING HERE IN THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN. IF YOU DON'T LOOK AT WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT, YOU CANNOT DESCRIBE WHAT IS HAPPENING.
[5-19-08 ECB] NOAA GRAPH PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT EL NINO: Some 15 different prediction models from various sources around the world are summarized in this graph. El Nino and La Nina are technically now categorized as Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) plus or minus 0.5 degrees C from an averaged historical norm. Two predictors agree with the ECB that El Nino may begin to set in this Summer (from July onwards) and two others agree that El Nino may begin to set in this coming November. Five others suggest that La Nina is still here and will remain virtually as it is now through to the end of 2008.
Click on image for larger, clearer view
Click on image for larger, clearer view
source: NOAA National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 April 2008).
For More Information On Dynamics and Predictions Of The Ocean Climate Regimes & El Nino / La Nina: GO TO THE WEATHER/CLIMATE ALMANAC
Most likely a major factor in the formation of the next El Nino is the motion of the Pacific Ocean bottom.
acceleration of rifting (spreading of the Earth's crust) in the East Pacific
Rise portion of the Great Rift which snakes around the Earth at the bottoms
of the oceans has been underway during the first half of 2008. This
likely continues, as evidenced by increased volcanism in the Aleutians and
the southern tip of South America. The rifting is likely releasing far more heat into the bottom of the
East Pacific than normal and this may be the "gating" phase which will
produce the next El Nino, which is likely to emerge into visibility during
the latter part of 2008 and last through the first half of 2009. Ironically,
then, the Great Quakes in Japan and China during May and June may be heralds of
record-breaking El Nino year soon to come.
GLOBAL WARMING SYNDROME: Far more probable than not, the first half of 2007 has brought a serious surge of heat through the Great Rifts in the bottom of the oceans. It is likely that this is still continuing and it may continue throughout 2008. The telling sign is the spurt of Great Rift quakes which come and go in waves. These all indicate movements which marine geologists are nearly certain indicate extensive magma dikes and lava flows in or very close to the Great Rift Valleys. This activity during the first half of 2007 likely will feed a new round of heat into the oceanic climate system during the next 36 months and thus over-all Global Warming will continue to surge upwards. This pattern, as of January 08, may still be underway. As of May, 2008, it is evident that this activity has accelerated during the first several months of 2008.
IMPORTANT NOTE AS OF MAY 5 2008: It is now apparent that the American continents, especially North America, has been moving the past few months more than it has for any similar length of time during many years. Related to this is probably the acceleration of activity at the two antipodes of the East Pacific portion of the Great Rift. On nearly mirror opposite sides of the main directions of spread from the East Pacific Rift, namely the Aleutians and the southern tip of South America (which collide head on with the moving ocean bottom plates), tectonic activity also has been elevated the past few months. This has taken the form of both earthquakes (subduction thrusts) and volcanism (squeeze on the mantle). This has been most recently shown by the major eruption of a long dormant volcano in southern Chile This doubtless is an indicator of increased spreading in the East Pacific Rift and thus increased magma rise and heat flow into the bottom of the ocean. Similar increases in Class 4 quake activity during recent months in the Arctic along the Siberian portion of the Great Rift and most recently along the northern edge of Canada, suggest increased rifting of the Arctic portion of the Great Rift . As in the East Pacific, this will probably result in increased heat flow into the Arctic Ocean. Both increases with accelerate the trend lines of Global Warming and result in the greatest melt of Arctic Ice yet recorded this Summer. The heat flow in the East Pacific may also produce a record-breaking El Nino.
The increased heat energy in the climate system along the broad middle of the Earth ( from the tropics which supplies the juice which powers the air conditioner of your weather) is causing the flow of air more rapidly in greater volumes into the north and south out of the Equatorial zone. Warm air travels further to the North (or South) and pushes increased cold air to flow out of the polar zones (your cooling coils). The more Global Warming, the more intense and stormy will be both Winter and Summer, the Winter cooler, the Summer hotter, with more power in all storms. The primary consistent barometer of all of this: the melting of the Arctic Ice.
The key to dynamic change is the bottom graph which displays the "out of average" readings. This allows us to quickly spot the extremes which are forming up in the various oceanic climate regimes. It is a lot cheaper and easier than using supercomputers.
Seasonal Color Map Graphs - Predict Rain and Temperatures For North America For The Year Ahead – Science Is Finally Catching Up With Farmer’s Almanac. Go here to get updated on the likely rain and temperature forecast. This one currently on the web is essentially based on a La Nina forecast.
[7-28-08] SO FAR, NOAA'S Hurricane Season forecast is about as accurate (not) as last year's. Conditions do not seem favorable for the huge gyre formations to build up rapid wind flows abound the vortices. PART OF THE REASON IS SIMPLE. THIS IS SOLAR MIN AND WE ARE SEEING, IN A MULTI-YEAR DEMONSTRATION, THAT THE IONIC INFLUENCE PRODUCED BY SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING THE SUN'S ACTIVE YEARS DOES INDEED PLAY A ROLE IN FORMING THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. We already know this to be true about human political and economic affairs, in which we can see the depression of mood and activity all around us, and we can also see it in the lack of significant hurricane activity. Both humanity and the Earth are in the "morning after" phase of the wild party last night (last cycle peak).
Al, you there? Here is the primary signal of the tectonic motion
which is creating Global Warming.
Al, you there? Here is the primary signal of the tectonic motion which is creating Global Warming.
Click here to
latest graphs of the
Global Quake Trend
The recently passed New Moon
Syzygy was un-notable. World frequency Class 4 and 5 is now about normal.
Proportionately, not nearly enough release has occurred in the Mexico to
Alaska zone of the Pacific Rim. More also may be coming to Japan.
You will likely see
a surge during the coming Full Moon Syzygy which will include Class 4+
activity along the western coast of North America.
October 20, 2008, IRIS Chart Class 4+
CLICK ON IMAGES FOR EXPANDED VIEW; red indicates quakes 4+ during the previous 24 hours, orange during previous day, yellow during the previous two weeks, violet during the past 15 years
SEISMIC MONITOR BY IRIS
SEISMIC MONITOR BY IRIS
Best to go here below and click for the latest dynamic page with explanations of the symbols and large displays of regions of the Earth (these are "at the moment" charts): http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
Seven Days - for earthquakes worldwide magnitude 4.0 plus and
The East Pacific Rift is known to be separating at a faster rate than any other zone but generally the rifting produces only small quakes, under Class 3. Thus they do not show up on anyone's charts because no one is paying any attention to such small quakes. The same is true of all of the Great Rift, but the Atlantic portion also produces many more Class 4+ quakes during the course of any given year than the other rift zones. No one seems to know why.
CONCERNING DATABASE FILES
OF QUAKE CATALOGS:
SHAPESHIFTING: ACTIVITY LAST YEAR WAS VERY HIGH.
quakes indicate the spreading of the Rift Valley, the creation of new crust
through magma dikes which fills in the cracks of the Great Rift, and hence
the inevitable forcing of the Earth’s crust to change its shape to adjust for
the new crust. Most subduction zone
quakes (such as in the Pacific Rim of Fire) probably occur as a consequence of
the shape-shifting of the Earth. The outlines of the tectonic plates and the Great Rift can be be seen
in the violet color in this chart above. For a c
The outlines of the tectonic plates and the Great Rift can be be seen in the violet color in this chart above. For a chart of Earth’s Tectonic Plates, go to: http://www.iris.edu/seismon/html/plates.html
M 5+ earthquakes, past 7 days
Other Datafeeds On Quakes:
TECTONIC MOTION QUAKE FORECAST:
Occasionally the chart information is supplemented with data from Earth Sensitives, who include some humans and animals. For Earth Sensitive information, go to PamWiseman.com For other Syzygy-type forecasts and a portal to other valuable approaches, see Syzygyjob.com
ECB EARTHQUAKE FORECAST: as of 8-11-08
World earthquake activity in general will be uneventful and muted below average until November 2008. However, keep in mind that Great Quakes Class 7+ on average occur about every three weeks, Class 6+ occur on average every other day, hence major destructive quakes are always possible somewhere in the world, especially more often than not near the extreme moments in the lunar cycles. When the Lunar Cycles begin to synchronize once again, the Lunar Syzygies of November-January will produce greater activity than normal. December 2008 most likely will be the deadliest month.
Vigorous Eruption November, 2007
For Some New Volcano Reports