Visible Sun Of October 20, 2008:  Credit: SOHO/MDI

[10-20-08 ECB]  The Venus | Jupiter alignment brought the first real surge of Sunspots for Solar Activity Cycle #24. But after the eight day surge of 11 to 24 Sunspots last week on a Flux Index around 71, which was accompanied by a large magnetic storm) we now have NO SUNSPOTS as of October 18, though the Flux is once again rising (from 69 to 70 on October 19), which is quite often an herald of Sunspots being born.  There are no coronal holes (in the Sun's atmosphere), no fluctations in a very modest solar wind and the Planetary A Magnetic Index (upper atmosphere field strength) in once again below 5. Alaska's Fluxgate Monitor (U. of A.) once again shows practically no disturbances in the "surface" on the "solar sea" through which the Earth sails.  The surge in Solar Activity which the alignment of Venus and Jupiter clearly brought suggests that planetary alignments will begin to serve once again as a predictor  of solar activity.  See Planetary Alignments for longer range forecast. 

 

DAILY REPORT FROM SIDC, BRUSSELS:  "PRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Mon Oct 20 2008, 1229 UT Solar activity is quiet and is expected to remain so.  The Earth is currently inside the slow solar wind flow with average values of the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We thus expect quiet geomagnetic conditions. However, a slight increase of the solar wind speed and the IMF magnitude on October 19 together with the passage of the interplanetary sector boundary on October 17 may indicate a possible arrival of a fast solar wind stream (with its associated geomagnetic effects) in the coming days. We thus prefer to deactivate the All Quiet Alert\'\'.

See SIDC HOME PAGE for more details.

 

[10-20-08 ECB]  NASA reports no Sunspots on the far side of the Sun.   [Holographic image credit: SOHO/MDI] 

 

[10-20-08 ECB]  Quick Solar Activity Forecast From Planetary Alignments:   We are now beginning to move on the up-ramp of Solar Activity Cycle 24. The next three years most likely will bring a steady progressive climb in Solar Activity.  Sometime in 2012-2015 average monthly sunspots will peak above 100, which will be close to 100 times as much daily activity as we have experienced during 2008. Daily activity will occasionally exceed 400, even rarely 500.  In the meantime we are clearly still very much in Solar Min and accordingly you must ascribe the extremes in weather and climate patterns at this time to the emerging global warming syndrome. Don't expect much activity from the sun during the next sixth months which is a very very good thing.  Human wars generally do not commence during the solar min phase.  They generally begin to roll as the solar cycle reaches maximum intensity.  The next intense peak period will begin approximately 2012-2013, possibly as early as during 2011.

 

Click here for NOAA Sunspot Table For Past 30 Days

[10-20-08 ECB] NASA predicts a 1%  probability of solar flares (X to M, respectively) during the next 48 hours. NASA reports no coronal holes.  NASA also predicts there is only a 1% to 10% probability of major magnetic disturbances in the high latitudes during the next 48 hours, not a very significant chance.  Pix Credit: NOAA

 

MAGNETIC DISTURBANCES
(As Shown By Fluxgate Monitor at the University of Alaska )

[10-20-08 ECB]  After some minor (very) fluctuations yesterday, University of Alaska's Fluxgate Monitor is showing nearly a glass sea surface in the magnetic ocean. (Always keep in mind that even during a Solar Min period, intense X class flares and CME's occasionally occur and produce intense magnetic storms in the atmosphere.)

CLICK ON GRAPH FOR EXPANDED VIEW

 

[10-20-08 ECB]  IMPORTANT CONCLUSIONS AS OF THIS DATE:

• Solar Cycle 24 probably has begun.  Statistical inference most likely will confirm this in November.
   

• Solar Cycle 23 is significantly longer than the past three previous cycles, but NOT out of overall statistical norms.
   

• Solar Cycle 24 may be another relatively small Solar Cycle; based on review of 300 years of graphs the approximate size of the next cycle is likely to be about the size of Solar Cycle 23 or perhaps a little smaller.  However, there are many ways to interpret historical solar cycles, the only way we can be entirely certain is in retrospect.  Net Solar Activity gives the distinct appearance of large cycles induced by the "cosmic frame" which both interfere (repress) and and energize (augment) Solar Activity cycles.  Trends appear and then disappear, producing in the final analysis a history which contains some chaos

The ELECTROMAGNETIC DYNAMIC PARADIGM for defining solar cycles is currently lost in the FLUX, in a matter of speaking.  This new paradigm forecast Solar Cycle 24 as having begun in late 2007 or January 2008.  Unfortunately it is now strongly possible that this will produce a variance of 9-12 months from the traditional 13 month weighted average (smoothed) method of defining the SOLAR MIN.  For purposes of comparative study of the impact of Solar Activity on Earth and its parts,  this much variation is not good.  Thus it is best to continue to use the traditional statistical method for marking the cycles.

 

[8-18-08 ECB] ASSESSMENT OF IMPLICATIONS OF THESE CONCLUSIONS:  The drawn out length of Solar MIN and a smaller Cycle 24 will promote a trend of Global Cooling, as some are speculating.  BUT this factor may be overshadowed by tectonic-induced Global Warming.  Thus Global Warming may continue.  If so, it will be apparent to nearly all scientists by about 2013/14 that Global Warming is an activity of the Earth, not of the Sun nor of reflected heat induced by human-created so-called greenhouse gases. Having said this, we cannot predict with precision either the amount of tectonic Global Warming nor the amount of Solar Activity during the next several years, hence the future is by no means certain as of 8-18-08

 

CURRENT SOLAR MIN PHASE
click on image to call up source with expanded version and text

source:  SIDC, Brussels;  http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfjmms.html
 

[8-18-08 ECB] Current Solar Activity for August 08 corresponds very well with the "SM Trend" in this chart above.  We have had almost an entire month of 0 Sunspots.  This follows on July which averaged only 0.5 Sunspots per day.  This suggests strongly that Solar MIN is occurring right now, rather than 10 to 8 months ago.

 

[8-25-08 ECB]  Now we have had some 35 days without any Sunspots, a full five weeks!  This despite the fact that Mercury has aligned itself with all the inner planets and most of the outer planets during the past 60 days.  This "round" of Mercury (orbit around the Sun) must surely be the "message from the celestial gods" that Solar Cycle 23 is ending and Cycle 24 is about to begin.

 

 

[9-1-08 ECB] Solar Historical Perspective -

These charts are from the ECB Gallery.  They are not for general release at this time.  I am showing these now in the Bulletins to help readers can a better sense of perspective about the current year and the next several. You will get a better idea of what to be watching.

 

Chart - 50 Year Trend Line Solar Activity - Monthly Count

As can be seen in this chart, a month of zero Sunspot Count occurs in many but not all of the Solar MIN periods.  There is nothing all that unusual about Solar Activity at this time once you look at a larger frame of time.

 

Chart - 100 Year Trend Line Solar Activity - Annual Count

This chart is even more interesting.  It is part of what I call the Vortex Paradigm Proof. It demonstrates the chilling accuracy of Edgar Cayce's comments, made during the 1930's.  Notice first that during the first half of the 20th century there were some years in which the entire year had an almost zero average count - less than five.  That has not happened since the peak of Solar Cycle 19 in 1958.  Shades of Edgar Cayce, who predicted during the 1930's that Major Changes in the Earth would begin in 1958.  Now notice that in Wobble Cycle 7 (1930's), for the first time on this graph the greatest amount of swing in the wobble was above the x= zero line.  This means that, as Cayce predicted during 1932 for the period 1935, a shifting in the balance of the Earth's orientation in space would occur.  Following this, in 1958 major trends of change would begin.  Notice that the X and Y directions of the wobble begin to progressively separate after a huge Solar MAX (Cycle 19 during Wobble 11) in 1958.  What this graph is telling us is that the wobble's average location is shifting progressively much more quickly towards Longitude West 90 (Y) than towards Longitude 0 (X) and this directional shift began when Cayce predicted. 

 

This tells us something incredibly important, namely, the equilibrium of the Earth's wobble in space can be influenced by the stormy energy in a major Sunspot Cycle. A blast of the Sun can move the Earth, change its orientation and orbit.  In fact it did so and all the trends of geophysical and ecological change in the Earth are a direct consequence, most emphatically including Global Warming.  There is no doubt about this whatsoever.  So far, this shift continues, the Earth has not regained stability.  The cycles since SS #11 have been far smaller in total energy output but they still outweigh by far the cycles of the first half of the 20th century. Rather exact the correlations, are they not?

 

Now you can see why the Earth Changes Bulletin is so focused on the Sun and the Cosmic Frame to provide the backdrop for analyzing the changes on the Earth.  Looking at this chart we realize the truth of the Hermetic Doctrine, as above so below, taught since the earliest days of Egypt.  By following the Sun in detail, we will be able to observe in advance the influences which will result in the next destabilization of the wobble and shifting of the poles. In the train of the destabilization will come accelerated breaking in the crust, which will produce major tectonic rifting, volcanism, earthquakes, and their tertiary effect, an increase in the rate of Global Warming. 

 

There is little to doubt about this.  But as can be also observed, there really is no statistical basis for predicting whether the next cycle is going to be bigger, smaller, or the same. So the larger frame of time is unknowable, but yet we probably can observe enough within the framework of A CYCLE to compare enough facts to draw appropriate conclusions. As the man said a long time ago, watch!  The astute will know what to do.

 

Chart - 100 Year Trend Line Solar Activity Correlate World Heat

This chart is part of what I call the Al Gore Paradigm Buster. It properly correlates Global Warming with the changes in the World Ocean.  During the first half of the 20th Century, before the acceleration of trends in tectonic motion began with the shifting of the wobble, global temperature shifts more or less seem to approximately parallel with the level of Solar Cycle activity.  Then 1958 begins, the blowout of Solar Cycle 19 pushes all the buttons, the measurement of the heat in the world oceans begins and we see that Global Warming rises isomorphicly with the increase of heat in the World Ocean  and both are moving, on average,  in an opposite direction from the average energy which is being received from the Sun.  The total Solar Input, declined, as a matter fact, and may continue to decline for all we know during 2008. Some say this decline will continue and a new "ice age" will begin.  But this chart rains on their parade as well. The heat gain is in the oceans and that heat gain is flowing from the bottom to the top...probably proving what marine geologists have been claiming the past couple of decades, there is a million times as much volcanism on the bottoms of the oceans as on the continents and islands. Thus this chart demonstrates that geophysical changes in the Earth could continue to drive Global Warming even if we have Solar Cycles during the next decades which look like the small ones in the first half of the 20th Century or the even smaller ones in the 19th Century.  With this chart before you, you cannot intelligently assert that small increases in "reflected" heat energy from a declining Sun is the cause of Global Warming.

 

HISTORY OF SOLAR CYCLE 23 & PROJECTED TRANSITION TO CYCLE 24
click on image to call up source with expanded version and text

This is a fuller, long-term version of the SIDC chart above

source:  SIDC, Brussels;  http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfjmms.html
 

[8-18-08 ECB] REVISED STANDING PREDICTION FOR SOLAR CYCLE 24:  Previous coverage in the EC Bulletin for the past 12 months was not correct.  It covered the new electrodynamic paradigm of the Sun and it was well worth working with it to study possible better methods of observing solar behavior.  After six months of uncertainties which have been noted here, this coverage is now abandoned.  Accordingly, using the older statistical methods, Solar Cycle 24 is most likely to begin at any time from September 08 to January 09.  The year 2008 likely will be the MIN year, August 08 may be the MIN month.  Solar Cycle 24 activity may peak during 2012-2016.  As solar activity gradually increases, both environmental dynamics and human behavior and emotionalism will shift into a more rapid flux of activity and reactivity.  Solar Cycle 23 engendered deep, bitter polarizations in the world, especially in Palestine, the Middle East, and vis a vis the United States, both internationally and domestically.  Rather than resolve divisions and conflict, humans accentuated them during this last Solar Cycle.  Accordingly, during the coming cycle human reactivity and tendency to fear and violence will become greater and could easily match the worst episodes in human history.  Human affairs will be accompanied by continued Global Warming and extreme weather patterns in climate, cyclones, tornadoes, ocean storm-fronts, flooding, and drought conditions,  which are made all the more extreme under the ionic influence of the once-again active Sun which is producing major Solar Storms, Flares, and Ionic Wind Gusts.  Under this growing pressure, which will reach its heights in about 2012-2016, both the terrestrial environment and human societies will be subject to immense dynamic flux which will alter both the greater expanse of the Earth as well as the nations and the affairs of humans. Global Warming will accelerate more rapidly, mass migrations will become more frequent, more agriculture and oceanic food sources will fail, more nations will collapse (as in Africa), and the general level of violence will increase in many areas.  The exceptionally strong internal polarization in the U.S. against the Cabal of banksters and their oil-soaked Junta, and as well the antagonistic international polarization against the U.S., likely will be resolved by  acceleration of a chronic "half-collapse" of the current economic and political system in the U.S. This period will be marked by paralysis of politics and a chaotic period of increased repression and rebellion which gradually destroys the power of Federal agencies which have usurped far too much illegal (unconstitutional) power.  Likely the period will also spawn many concerted efforts to change major aspects of the constitution of the U.S. and the structure of its government.  In fact, these movements have already begun and are very likely to grow, perhaps reaching a peak in about 2012.  Increased international militarism may be attempted by intellectually and morally bankrupt Zionazi puppetmasters, cliques, and agit-prop organizations who manipulate and strongly influence nearly all institutions in the U.S. East Coast under the guise of "rational" globalism.  These attempts may be and probably will be made in various guises regardless of which political party "wins" the November 08 national U.S. elections.  Likely, however, these efforts will end in greater failure and bankruptcy of the U.S. and virtual abandonment of U.S. militarism by an exhausted citizenry.

 

[9-18-08 ECB] Passage To Solar Cycle 24: 

 

NOTES ON SOLAR CYCLES, ACTIVITY, WEATHER:

 

CLARIFICATIONS OF TWO MAJOR CONFUSIONS ABOUT THIS SOLAR CYCLE 24 WHICH ARE ON THE IWAY DURING MID 2008:  Some people are remarking about HOW UNUSUAL IS the low level of Solar Activity. Some even have confused the cycle to suppose that the Sun is supposed to be in its MAX condition during the later part of this year.  THERE IS NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL OF SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING THE LAST 18 MONTHS.  WE ARE IN SOLAR MIN, A CONDITION OF VERY LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY WHICH RE-OCCURS EVERY 7-13 YEARS, GENERALLY ABOUT EVERY 11 YEARS.   Since the cycle varies in length, there is nothing unusual about any current timing factor. Sometime during 2009 the Sun will most likely begin a vigorous ascent to its MAX levels of activity, which it will likely reach sometime 2011-2013.  However, even this projection is based on "average" expectations.  It could remain low until 2010 and not reach the next MAX until 2013. Another confusion surrounds the likely size of the next Solar MAX.  Using advanced physics modeling, some people expect a much larger than normal Sunspot MAX, others using short term statistics expect a smaller MAX than usual.  Reality is that the PEAK OF SOLAR CYCLE 24 MAX IS PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE TO CALL ON scientific grounds (if one knew all that humans knew on the topic). BUT, my personal GUESS from the cycle stats and rhythms of the past two hundred years is that the next cycle will be larger than normal.  From the point of view of human politics, it would be a good thing if the next cycle is lower than average.  Such an event most likely would lay to rest definitively the theory of greenhouse gases since Global Warming will continue to trend upward as a result of the current round of accelerated tectonic warming of the world ocean (heat flux through the Great Rift).

 

IMPORTANT NOTE WHICH MOST PEOPLE STILL ARE NOT GETTING:

The Sun is at minimum levels of activity - it is at its lowest ebb since 1997.  Thus the climate patterns this year have nothing to do with solar cycles and are entirely related to global warming phenomenon produced by tectonic causes. MAY'S EXTREMES IN CYCLONES (Myanmar) AND TORNADOES (N.A. Midwest & Plains) PLAINLY AND ABSOLUTELY IS NOT A RESULT OF STIMULUS FROM THE SUN NOR NATURAL NOR HUMAN-CAUSED CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.  The same thing can be definitively argued for the rapid acceleration of the annual melt in the Arctic. A reduction in solar output means that the reflected energy in the atmosphere IS LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS YEARS.  Since the continents cannot store heat, the heat MUST be coming from the oceans, which has clearly been demonstrated TO BE RISING FROM THE DEPTHS.   Thus this can only be "Tectonic Global Warming Syndrome", which shows us what the new weather "normal" is becoming as the Earth's oceans continue to gradually warm from tectonic causes.  The Sun and the atmosphere and carbon dioxide HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE TREND.

 

With this in mind, we can watch what happens during the remainder of 2008 if  surges in  Solar Activity bring higher Sunspot Counts, increased solar wind streams, and increased atmospheric disturbances.  A noticeable rise in Solar output, however, will most likely not begin until late in 2009.