Monitoring The Changes In The Earth
October 20, 2008
Alvestad Solar Activity Graph As Of October 5, 2008
click on this graph to view it in full size
In this chart the black line is the Solar Flux as measured in orbit near the Earth, the red line is the Sunspot Number and the blue line is a measure of the strength of the magnetic field in the Earth’s high atmosphere (called the Planetary A Index).
Note that Alvestad is using the historical statistical method for defining Solar Cycles and thus is still treating the current activity of the Sun as a part of Solar Cycle 23.
Visible Sun Of October 20, 2008: Credit: SOHO/MDI
[10-20-08 ECB] The Venus | Jupiter alignment brought the first real surge of Sunspots for Solar Activity Cycle #24. But after the eight day surge of 11 to 24 Sunspots last week on a Flux Index around 71, which was accompanied by a large magnetic storm) we now have NO SUNSPOTS as of October 18, though the Flux is once again rising (from 69 to 70 on October 19), which is quite often an herald of Sunspots being born. There are no coronal holes (in the Sun's atmosphere), no fluctations in a very modest solar wind and the Planetary A Magnetic Index (upper atmosphere field strength) in once again below 5. Alaska's Fluxgate Monitor (U. of A.) once again shows practically no disturbances in the "surface" on the "solar sea" through which the Earth sails. The surge in Solar Activity which the alignment of Venus and Jupiter clearly brought suggests that planetary alignments will begin to serve once again as a predictor of solar activity. See Planetary Alignments for longer range forecast.
DAILY REPORT FROM SIDC, BRUSSELS: "PRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Mon Oct 20 2008, 1229 UT Solar activity is quiet and is expected to remain so. The Earth is currently inside the slow solar wind flow with average values of the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We thus expect quiet geomagnetic conditions. However, a slight increase of the solar wind speed and the IMF magnitude on October 19 together with the passage of the interplanetary sector boundary on October 17 may indicate a possible arrival of a fast solar wind stream (with its associated geomagnetic effects) in the coming days. We thus prefer to deactivate the All Quiet Alert\'\'.
See SIDC HOME PAGE for more details.
[10-20-08 ECB] NASA reports no Sunspots on the far side of the Sun. [Holographic image credit: SOHO/MDI]
[10-20-08 ECB] Quick Solar Activity Forecast From Planetary Alignments: We are now beginning to move on the up-ramp of Solar Activity Cycle 24. The next three years most likely will bring a steady progressive climb in Solar Activity. Sometime in 2012-2015 average monthly sunspots will peak above 100, which will be close to 100 times as much daily activity as we have experienced during 2008. Daily activity will occasionally exceed 400, even rarely 500. In the meantime we are clearly still very much in Solar Min and accordingly you must ascribe the extremes in weather and climate patterns at this time to the emerging global warming syndrome. Don't expect much activity from the sun during the next sixth months which is a very very good thing. Human wars generally do not commence during the solar min phase. They generally begin to roll as the solar cycle reaches maximum intensity. The next intense peak period will begin approximately 2012-2013, possibly as early as during 2011.
[10-20-08 ECB] NASA predicts a 1% probability of solar flares (X to M, respectively) during the next 48 hours. NASA reports no coronal holes. NASA also predicts there is only a 1% to 10% probability of major magnetic disturbances in the high latitudes during the next 48 hours, not a very significant chance. Pix Credit: NOAA
[10-20-08 ECB] After some minor (very) fluctuations yesterday, University of Alaska's Fluxgate Monitor is showing nearly a glass sea surface in the magnetic ocean. (Always keep in mind that even during a Solar Min period, intense X class flares and CME's occasionally occur and produce intense magnetic storms in the atmosphere.)
[10-20-08 ECB] IMPORTANT CONCLUSIONS AS OF THIS DATE:
The ELECTROMAGNETIC DYNAMIC PARADIGM for defining solar cycles is currently lost in the FLUX, in a matter of speaking. This new paradigm forecast Solar Cycle 24 as having begun in late 2007 or January 2008. Unfortunately it is now strongly possible that this will produce a variance of 9-12 months from the traditional 13 month weighted average (smoothed) method of defining the SOLAR MIN. For purposes of comparative study of the impact of Solar Activity on Earth and its parts, this much variation is not good. Thus it is best to continue to use the traditional statistical method for marking the cycles.
[8-18-08 ECB] ASSESSMENT OF IMPLICATIONS OF THESE CONCLUSIONS: The drawn out length of Solar MIN and a smaller Cycle 24 will promote a trend of Global Cooling, as some are speculating. BUT this factor may be overshadowed by tectonic-induced Global Warming. Thus Global Warming may continue. If so, it will be apparent to nearly all scientists by about 2013/14 that Global Warming is an activity of the Earth, not of the Sun nor of reflected heat induced by human-created so-called greenhouse gases. Having said this, we cannot predict with precision either the amount of tectonic Global Warming nor the amount of Solar Activity during the next several years, hence the future is by no means certain as of 8-18-08
CURRENT SOLAR MIN
[8-18-08 ECB] Current Solar Activity for August 08 corresponds very well with the "SM Trend" in this chart above. We have had almost an entire month of 0 Sunspots. This follows on July which averaged only 0.5 Sunspots per day. This suggests strongly that Solar MIN is occurring right now, rather than 10 to 8 months ago.
[8-25-08 ECB] Now we have had some 35 days without any Sunspots, a full five weeks! This despite the fact that Mercury has aligned itself with all the inner planets and most of the outer planets during the past 60 days. This "round" of Mercury (orbit around the Sun) must surely be the "message from the celestial gods" that Solar Cycle 23 is ending and Cycle 24 is about to begin.
These charts are from the ECB Gallery. They are not for general release at this time. I am showing these now in the Bulletins to help readers can a better sense of perspective about the current year and the next several. You will get a better idea of what to be watching.
Chart - 50 Year Trend Line Solar Activity - Monthly Count
As can be seen in this chart, a month of zero Sunspot Count occurs in many but not all of the Solar MIN periods. There is nothing all that unusual about Solar Activity at this time once you look at a larger frame of time.
Chart - 100 Year Trend Line Solar Activity - Annual Count
This chart is even more interesting. It is part of what I call the Vortex Paradigm Proof. It demonstrates the chilling accuracy of Edgar Cayce's comments, made during the 1930's. Notice first that during the first half of the 20th century there were some years in which the entire year had an almost zero average count - less than five. That has not happened since the peak of Solar Cycle 19 in 1958. Shades of Edgar Cayce, who predicted during the 1930's that Major Changes in the Earth would begin in 1958. Now notice that in Wobble Cycle 7 (1930's), for the first time on this graph the greatest amount of swing in the wobble was above the x= zero line. This means that, as Cayce predicted during 1932 for the period 1935, a shifting in the balance of the Earth's orientation in space would occur. Following this, in 1958 major trends of change would begin. Notice that the X and Y directions of the wobble begin to progressively separate after a huge Solar MAX (Cycle 19 during Wobble 11) in 1958. What this graph is telling us is that the wobble's average location is shifting progressively much more quickly towards Longitude West 90 (Y) than towards Longitude 0 (X) and this directional shift began when Cayce predicted.
This tells us something incredibly important, namely, the equilibrium of the Earth's wobble in space can be influenced by the stormy energy in a major Sunspot Cycle. A blast of the Sun can move the Earth, change its orientation and orbit. In fact it did so and all the trends of geophysical and ecological change in the Earth are a direct consequence, most emphatically including Global Warming. There is no doubt about this whatsoever. So far, this shift continues, the Earth has not regained stability. The cycles since SS #11 have been far smaller in total energy output but they still outweigh by far the cycles of the first half of the 20th century. Rather exact the correlations, are they not?
Now you can see why the Earth Changes Bulletin is so focused on the Sun and the Cosmic Frame to provide the backdrop for analyzing the changes on the Earth. Looking at this chart we realize the truth of the Hermetic Doctrine, as above so below, taught since the earliest days of Egypt. By following the Sun in detail, we will be able to observe in advance the influences which will result in the next destabilization of the wobble and shifting of the poles. In the train of the destabilization will come accelerated breaking in the crust, which will produce major tectonic rifting, volcanism, earthquakes, and their tertiary effect, an increase in the rate of Global Warming.
There is little to doubt about this. But as can be also observed, there really is no statistical basis for predicting whether the next cycle is going to be bigger, smaller, or the same. So the larger frame of time is unknowable, but yet we probably can observe enough within the framework of A CYCLE to compare enough facts to draw appropriate conclusions. As the man said a long time ago, watch! The astute will know what to do.
Chart - 100 Year Trend Line Solar Activity Correlate World Heat
This chart is part of what I call the Al Gore Paradigm Buster. It properly correlates Global Warming with the changes in the World Ocean. During the first half of the 20th Century, before the acceleration of trends in tectonic motion began with the shifting of the wobble, global temperature shifts more or less seem to approximately parallel with the level of Solar Cycle activity. Then 1958 begins, the blowout of Solar Cycle 19 pushes all the buttons, the measurement of the heat in the world oceans begins and we see that Global Warming rises isomorphicly with the increase of heat in the World Ocean and both are moving, on average, in an opposite direction from the average energy which is being received from the Sun. The total Solar Input, declined, as a matter fact, and may continue to decline for all we know during 2008. Some say this decline will continue and a new "ice age" will begin. But this chart rains on their parade as well. The heat gain is in the oceans and that heat gain is flowing from the bottom to the top...probably proving what marine geologists have been claiming the past couple of decades, there is a million times as much volcanism on the bottoms of the oceans as on the continents and islands. Thus this chart demonstrates that geophysical changes in the Earth could continue to drive Global Warming even if we have Solar Cycles during the next decades which look like the small ones in the first half of the 20th Century or the even smaller ones in the 19th Century. With this chart before you, you cannot intelligently assert that small increases in "reflected" heat energy from a declining Sun is the cause of Global Warming.
HISTORY OF SOLAR
CYCLE 23 & PROJECTED TRANSITION TO CYCLE 24
This is a fuller, long-term version of the SIDC chart above
For additional information on the influence of Sunspots and Solar Activity Cycles, go to the Earth Changes Solar Gallery. (this link not active yet).
[9-18-08 ECB] Passage To Solar Cycle 24:
10-6-08 ECB] The latest numbers computed by Jan Alvestad, using ISSN numbers, report that July and August's average flux and ISSN sunspot count Monthly Daily Average matched each other as the lowest since the beginning of Sunspot Cycle 23. But September rose slightly, mainly because of a brief, small surge during the last half of the month. Using the Statistical Model for inferring the beginning of Solar Cycles, this may mean that the cycle has turned and we are now in Solar Cycle 24. And because of Hathaway's (NASA) observation of the reversal of magnetic polarity in the Sunspots which have appeared, it would seem that all factors point to this conclusion. This conclusion is not likely to change but it is still too soon to definitively call. The Sun is often full of surprises.
HISTORY OF SOLAR
CYCLES a la BRUSSELS SIDC
source: SIDC, Brussels; http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfaml.html
TO COMPARE THE LAST THREE SOLAR CYCLES SUPERIMPOSED ON EACH OTHER, CLICK HERE. As can be seen, there is nothing exact about the Sunspot Cycle. Length varies and so does the quantity of events and the energy released.
HATHAWAY ELECTROMAGNETIC PREDICTION MODEL
For current, critical information about the past few cycles and Sunspot Cycle 24, click here. Notice that there are three curves to indicate the total range of possibility for the magnitude of the Solar Cycle 24 in Hathaway's prediction. The magnitude is probably not statistically predictable with greater than random chance. The curve of this prediction is now substantially OFF. Or, in other words, Hathaway's model, a truly worthy speculation, unfortunately fails. For more details, go to Almanac: Cycles of the Sun,
source: NASA, http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/28mar_oldcycle.htm
NOTES ON SOLAR CYCLES, ACTIVITY, WEATHER:
CLARIFICATIONS OF TWO MAJOR CONFUSIONS ABOUT THIS SOLAR CYCLE 24 WHICH ARE ON THE IWAY DURING MID 2008: Some people are remarking about HOW UNUSUAL IS the low level of Solar Activity. Some even have confused the cycle to suppose that the Sun is supposed to be in its MAX condition during the later part of this year. THERE IS NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL OF SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING THE LAST 18 MONTHS. WE ARE IN SOLAR MIN, A CONDITION OF VERY LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY WHICH RE-OCCURS EVERY 7-13 YEARS, GENERALLY ABOUT EVERY 11 YEARS. Since the cycle varies in length, there is nothing unusual about any current timing factor. Sometime during 2009 the Sun will most likely begin a vigorous ascent to its MAX levels of activity, which it will likely reach sometime 2011-2013. However, even this projection is based on "average" expectations. It could remain low until 2010 and not reach the next MAX until 2013. Another confusion surrounds the likely size of the next Solar MAX. Using advanced physics modeling, some people expect a much larger than normal Sunspot MAX, others using short term statistics expect a smaller MAX than usual. Reality is that the PEAK OF SOLAR CYCLE 24 MAX IS PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE TO CALL ON scientific grounds (if one knew all that humans knew on the topic). BUT, my personal GUESS from the cycle stats and rhythms of the past two hundred years is that the next cycle will be larger than normal. From the point of view of human politics, it would be a good thing if the next cycle is lower than average. Such an event most likely would lay to rest definitively the theory of greenhouse gases since Global Warming will continue to trend upward as a result of the current round of accelerated tectonic warming of the world ocean (heat flux through the Great Rift).
IMPORTANT NOTE WHICH MOST PEOPLE STILL ARE NOT GETTING:
The Sun is at minimum levels of activity - it is at its lowest ebb since 1997. Thus the climate patterns this year have nothing to do with solar cycles and are entirely related to global warming phenomenon produced by tectonic causes. MAY'S EXTREMES IN CYCLONES (Myanmar) AND TORNADOES (N.A. Midwest & Plains) PLAINLY AND ABSOLUTELY IS NOT A RESULT OF STIMULUS FROM THE SUN NOR NATURAL NOR HUMAN-CAUSED CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. The same thing can be definitively argued for the rapid acceleration of the annual melt in the Arctic. A reduction in solar output means that the reflected energy in the atmosphere IS LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS YEARS. Since the continents cannot store heat, the heat MUST be coming from the oceans, which has clearly been demonstrated TO BE RISING FROM THE DEPTHS. Thus this can only be "Tectonic Global Warming Syndrome", which shows us what the new weather "normal" is becoming as the Earth's oceans continue to gradually warm from tectonic causes. The Sun and the atmosphere and carbon dioxide HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE TREND.
With this in mind, we can watch what happens during the remainder of 2008 if surges in Solar Activity bring higher Sunspot Counts, increased solar wind streams, and increased atmospheric disturbances. A noticeable rise in Solar output, however, will most likely not begin until late in 2009.
of the Horos Sun
Courtesy Jet Propulsion Lab
NIGHT SKY FOR October 20, 2008 from Hopiland: Click for full screen sky map
IMAGE PRODUCED BY MICA, software & data from the JPL & U.S. Naval Observatory
If you want to learn how to follow the stars at night and get deeper into the cosmic scene of the planetary alignments, how the solar system actually works, and so forth, start using this. It is centered for 2 AM Greenwich Tuesdays (the map is changed for each weekly update) for Arizona Mountain Time (no daylight savings- 7 pm Monday evening) at 2000 meter elevation on approximately Black Mesa, Hopi Land. This projection is produced by U.S. Navy Observatory MICA software and Ephemeris (Ephemeris is maintained on line by JPL). It is more or less the world standard of algorithms for precisely tracking the cosmos and the software is such a snap to use to create powerful results, I cannot resist using it. With this you can stand on the bridge of a vessel at sea and navigate like they used to do (but no longer, its all satellite positioning now, but old habits die not at all in the navies of the world). Hopi Land was selected as the focal point because this provides the same approximate night sky to New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and California (with a little time delay). Sorry, you folks in the Pacific Northwest will not be able to use this very well, you need your own projection. As a rough and ready make-do, just face the South and look for the relevant items about 10 to 20 degrees lower than indicated in the chart. Like California, expect events in the chart to be one hour earlier than your time.
Venus shines brightly at Sunset, Polaris in the north, Jupiter in the Southwest. Later in the evening, around 11 PM, Orion become visible.
SOLAR SYSTEM FORECAST: [10-20-08] OUT OF DATE NOW - WILL UPDATE SOON
For a listing of all planetary alignments and charts for 2008, click onto the 2008 Alignment Almanac. Sunspot and solar activity should peak generally 8 to 3 days in advance of these alignment dates but keep in mind that some times the solar peak comes in on the day or the day after the alignment.
As intuited in the previous month, "the upcoming Mercury | Jupiter alignment on October 7 followed by the Venus | Jupiter alignment on October 21 will bring a change". In began the up-ramp for Solar Cycle 24. During the next two weeks planets are separating and thus Solar Activity should remain at low levels.
from Home Planet Software
October 7, 2008 - Mercury | Earth
from Home Planet Software
October 21 2008 - Venus | Mars
from Home Planet Software
To quickly surmise the situation for the week, use these graphs below by clicking on their titles. Use these graphs which are drawn by MWM from JPL Ephemeris table data to find PERIGEE, DECLINATION, AND PHASE (NEW OR FULL MOON). Once you figure out how to read them, which is not difficult, you will find these more powerful than words. Please note that you may have to click on the pictures in the browser to instruct your browser to display them in their full size.
Giant Plot For Easy Viewing Day By Day
For a more traditional text table of the Lunar Schedule, go to the Almanac
Declination (Dragon Cycle) and Distance (Perigee Cycle) define the strongest and most extreme moments of Lunar influence on the Earth. Distances of less than 365,000 KM indicate Perigees with the Lunar gravity field considerably stronger than average. Declinations of 27 or 28 indicate an extreme position of the Moon over the Northern (+) or Southern Hemisphere (-). A high declination with a low distance for Perigee exerts significantly greater torque on the Earth in zones which do not usually receive so much. The "timing" of these "moments" creates "windows" of exceptional syzygy. These relationships are best viewed in graph form.
The next New Moon is October 29 which will give us a New Moon Syzygy
from October 27 to about November 4. This syzygy is unfocused, with the
Moon in Apogee November 2 while in the Extreme South Declination. No
exceptional earth activity is likely during this time, though the
typical modest surge in activity will occur.
[8-4-08 ECB] Considerable de-synchronization now emerges in the lunar cycles and this will persist until November 2008. November will begin a new round of synchronized lunar cycles, with December 12 producing the strongest synchronization of the year in a near perfect alignment with the Earth's Perihelion, during both the New Moon (Dec. 27/28) and Full Moon (Dec. 12). These then are likely months of the greatest quake events and these are likely to exceed the tectonic activity of April/ May/June.
[4-28-08 ECB] STANDING SYZYGY ANALYSIS FOR THE YEAR. There will be a weak synchronization in May and June of 2008, then strong de-synchronization until November 2008. November will begin a new round of synchronized Lunar cycles, with December producing the strongest synchronization of the year in a near perfect alignment with the Earth's Perihelion, during both the New Moon (Dec. 27/28) and Full Moon (Dec. 12). These then are likely months of the greatest quake events. AS OF JULY 21, SO FAR THIS ROUGH PROJECTION HAS BEEN ROUGHLY CORRECT.
True Equator and Equinox of Date For 2008
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. See http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/groups.html
On October 20, 2008 there were 988 potentially hazardous asteroids
ORIONID METEORS: Earth is passing through a stream of dusty debris from Halley's Comet and this is giving rise to the annual Orionid meteor shower (so-called because the meteors emerge from the constellation Orion). This morning in the Netherlands, Koen Miskotte witnessed approximately 15 per hour "including many bright ones between magnitude +1 and -2," he says. Sky watchers should be alert for more during the hours before sunrise on Tuesday, Oct. 21st. [live counts]