GEOPHYSICAL WATCH:  Changes In The Earth

SOLAR ACTIVITY: Solar Storms, Sunspots, Ionic Wind, Magnetic Disturbances

ALMANAC | BACKGROUND | EARTHMONITOR LINKS |  LATEST

Visible Sun Of January 15, 2006:  Credit: SOHO/MDI

[1-15-07 ECB] Solar Sunspot activity slowly declined this past week with the count falling from 52 on January 8 to 27 Sunspots on January 14 with the Flux now at 82, both falling.  

[1-15-07 ECB] Quick Solar Activity Forecast From Planetary Alignments:  A rapid succession of alignments involving Mercury and Venus on the Far Side of the Sun with the heavy outer planets will likely keep solar activity cooking in the range of 20 to 60 sunspots during much of the rest of January and well into February.  At least four waves of influence on the Earth's weather is likely by February 8. We have just passed the first wave, possibly three more waves to come.  Most of the surge in solar activity is likely to be on the far side of the Sun facing Mars and Jupiter.  Earth may not even record most of the coming surge in Solar Activity, though Flux and Sunspot counts will peak up occassionally.  All in all, a stormy January and February on Earth will be produced mainly by Global Warming with extra punch added by modest waves of solar ionization.

ALVESTAD SOLAR ACTIVITY  GRAPH AS OF JANUARY 15, 2008
CLICK ON GRAPH FOR EXPANDED VIEW

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2007/sunspots/solar_1-15-07.gif
graph courtesy Jan Alvestad http://www.dxlc.com/solar/
Latest Graph: http://www.dxlc.com/solar/images/solar.gif
Daily Sunspot Numbers Are ISSN: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt

Sunspot Count Chart:  In this chart above the black line is the Solar Flux as measured in orbit near the Earth, the red line is the Sunspot Number and the blue line is a measure of the strength of the magnetic field in the Earth’s high atmosphere (called the Planetary A Index).  

Date     Flux Spots Area

2007 01 08  88  52 510
2007 01 09  92  41 580
2007 01 10  86  39 480
2007 01 11  84  45 290
2007 01 12  84  33 310
2007 01 13  81  36 320
2007 01 14  82  27 180 

[1-8-15 ECB]   NASA predicts a 1% to 1% probability of solar flares (X to M, respectively) during the next 48 hours .  NASA also predicts a 10% to 25% probability of major magnetic disturbances in the high latitudes.  NASA claims "A high-speed solar wind stream is buffeting Earth's magnetic field and causing geomagnetic storms at high latitudes."  Pix Credit: NOAA GOES-13.

[1-15-07 ECB] NASA ADVICE ON AURORAS: "Sky watchers from Scandinavia should be alert for auroras tonight."

[1-8-07 ECB] Average Solar Counts for December  2006:  Flux:  74.3   Spots: ISSN - 13.6.  Trend – downward slowly, slowly sinking to Solar Minima which more likely than not could occur anytime during through to the end of 2007.  December count was about 2 Sunspots above the projected trendline of 11.7  Trendline is predicted at 11.9 for January 2007.. 

Magnetic Disturbances: (As Shown By Fluxgate Monitor at the University of Alaska )

[1-15-07 ECB]  The Fluxgate Monitor currently shows some developing disturbance after a strange hiatus.

CLICK ON GRAPH FOR EXPANDED VIEW

http://www.michaelmandeville.com//ecbulletin/2007/fluxgate_1-14-07.gif

PLANETARY ACTIVITY: Skywatching, Planet Alignments, Moon, Asteroids

PLANET ALIGNMENTS:

ALMANAC  |  BACKGROUND  |  EARTHMONITOR LINKS  |  LATEST

[1-8-07 ECB] Welcome to Solar MIN.  We are not yet to Solar Minima, which is the point when one Sunspot Cycle ends and another begins.  Thus we are still in Cycle 23 but this is not likely to last beyond 2007.  Our slide into the Solar Min saved THE CARIB AND GULF COAST LINES THIS PAST YEAR.  The timing of the rapid die-off of solar activity is not very predictable but it certainly did result in this Hurricane Season remaining closer to the old averages than the new trends established during 2004/05. 

SOLAR FORECAST:

[1-15-07 ECB]  I have begun to progress the planets for the entire year ahead but ran out of steam.  Through to August 2007, there are at least 15 major alignment points for the planets which doubtless will have substantial influence on the Earth's weather patterns. We will have two more through to February 8.  This is enough to tell us that a major portion of Solar influence on the Earth's weather during the next several months is occurring now. From this rapidly moving series of alignments, which typically involves two pairs of planets in each alignment, I expect to see at least three more peaks in Sunspot Activity by the end of the first week in February.  By far, February is stacked up to be the stormiest month of the season.  Keep in mind that over-all, weather patterns should be about the same as last year or reduced in strength a little if the only factor is the Sun, but the Arctic El Nino is providing enough votive force to make the Sun largely irrelevant except for providing the peaking power to marine storm fronts.

Sunspot and solar activity should peak generally 8 to 3 days in advance of these alignment dates but keep in mind that some times the solar peak comes in on the day or the day after the alignment.

January 15, 2007
Mars twixt alinments with Jupiter and Pluto
Venus | Uranus
Mercury | Neptune

We have probably just passed the Solar Activity Peak for this alignment.  Spots may continue to fall to 20 or so during the next 28 hours.

January 23, 2007 -
Mercury | Venus | Uranus (close within 10 degrees)
while the February 8 alignments are nearly formed up

A new peak in Solar Activity may begin to form up from about January 17; this peak should be larger than the last peak of 52 and it may persist well past the alignment date because the activity likely will form up on the Far Side of the Sun.

February 8
Mars | Pluto
Earth | Saturn
in a 10:30 AM configuration

The peak for this alignment should come just after the beginning of February.

JANUARY 15, 2007 PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

January  15, 2007 - An Heliocentric Projection from Home Planet Software

http://michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2006/planets/planets_equal9_1-15-07.gif

JANUARY 23, 2007 PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

February's bumpy ride begins about here.

January  23, 2007 - An Heliocentric Projection from Home Planet Software

http://michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2006/planets/planets_equal9_1-23-07.gif

FEBRUARY 8, 2007 PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

This should bring in a good sized wave in Solar Activity just after February 1.

February 8, 2007 - An Heliocentric Projection from Home Planet Software

http://michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2006/planets/planets_equal9_2-8-07.gif

FEBRUARY 20, 2007 PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

This alignment should bring in quite a peak, over 50 almost certainly, from about February 10.  Mid February storms will likely add quite a punch to an already strange and often very cold Winter, esp. in the western U.S.

February 20, 2007 - An Heliocentric Projection from Home Planet Software

http://michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2006/planets/planets_equal9_2-20-07.gif

FEBRUARY 22, 2007 PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

February 22, 2007 - An Heliocentric Projection from Home Planet Software

http://michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2006/planets/planets_equal9_2-22-07.gif

MARCH 30, 2007 PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

Most of early March should be quiet but this alignment during the first week of Spring should bring in the next big peak after the Mercury | Earth alignment. The Spring Equinox should see the peak in Solar Activity and within a few days Spring is likely to feel like the last blast of Winter in North America.

March 30, 2007 - An Heliocentric Projection from Home Planet Software

http://michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2006/planets/planets_equal9_3-30-07.gif

APRIL 22, 2007 PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

April 22, 2007 - An Heliocentric Projection from Home Planet Software

http://michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2006/planets/planets_equal9_4-22-07.gif

MAY 15, 2007 PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

May 15, 2007 - An Heliocentric Projection from Home Planet Software

http://michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2006/planets/planets_equal9_5-15-07.gif

LUNAR SCHEDULE:

ALMANAC  |  BACKGROUND  |  EARTHMONITOR LINKS  |  LATEST

[1-15-07 ECB]  In about two days we will enter into an extended New Moon Perigee Syzygy. Snce this is so close to Solar Perihelion, Earth's closest approach to the Sun, this combination should pack a much stronger punch than we have seen so far for Perihelion. Thus January 19-24 is the next most dangerous tectonic period and both magnitude and frequency of seismic activty will trend upwards for several days.

[1-8-07 ECB] Perigee will begin to synchronize within 48 hours with the New Moon phase, beginning on February 19, 2007. The New Moons of March 19 and April 17 should form up the next strongest syzygies.  Accordingly, considering only gravity vectors, tectonic activity should be least influenced by the Moon cycles during December and January.

Lunar Schedule For 2007
computed from Home Planet Software (op. cit.)

ALL TIMES AND DATES ARE UTC (Greenwich)

+ or - = synchronicity within 48 hours with Full or New Moon

Integrated Lunar Schedule On Time Dimension

All dates and times are UTC

ASTEROID DATA QUOTED DIRECTLY FROM NASA 

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.  See http://www.spaceweather.com/

COMET ANNOUNCEMENT FROM NASA:  Comet McNaught

EARTH POLAR MOTION: Spin Axis, Magnetic Poles

ALMANAC  |  BACKGROUND  |  EARTHMONITOR LINKS  |  LATEST

[1-15-07 ECB]   No change in dynamic since early November.  After a few days last week of a tendency to tighten the spiral of Earth's Wobble, the track of polar motion began to spread outward in an expanding spiral, which is what it should be doing at this point in its seven year cycle.

[11-06-06 ECB]  The track of Chandler’s Wobble continues to appear to be showing an outwardly expanding spiral (slowly emerging). This is typical of what could be expected after passing the MIN spiral or phase in the 7 year Wobble Cycle (AKA the low in Chandler’s Amplitude).  The beginning date of 1-1-05 is shown at the bottom of the spiral. The ending date of 10-26-06 is shown at end of the line pointing straight up.

[10-30-06 ECB]  The daily track looks fairly normal at the current time.  The track of the location of the Spin Axis is floating at nearly X = 0 as of this date while moving rapidly into negative numbers, or into the Pacific Hemisphere.  Concurrently, the track is twisting direction and is beginning to pull the Great Lakes towards the North.   

http://michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2007/wobble/wobbletrac_1-15-07.gif
Image is from WobbleTracker software, drawn by MWM

Graph Scale is set to 0.6 arcseconds, Grid Size = 0.04 arcseconds

Time Domain as shown in upper right hand corner

This chart shows the location of the North Spin Axis relative to the “map coordinates” which were established at the end of the 19^th century.  A drift of over 50 feet since 1900 in the circular track of Chandler’s Wobble is shown in this chart.  This drift is the primary cause of the acceleration in Earth’s tectonic activity.

In order to “parallel” the way in which geophysicists create and record the Earth’s polar location geo-reference system, this graph shows the negative numbers opposite to the manner which they are typically drawn in school books.  –X is shown on the top half, and this corresponds to the direction of the Pacific Hemisphere.  –Y is shown on the right side and this corresponds to the Eurasian Land Mass.  X= Longitude 0, which is the Greenwich Meridian which bisects through England; +Y= Longitude 90,  which bisects through the Great Lakes (North America).

WORLD & REGIONAL WEATHER: Storm Fronts, Hurricanes, El Nino & La Nina, Drought & Fire, Global Warming

ALMANAC  |  BACKGROUND  |  EARTHMONITOR LINKS  |  LATEST

[1-15-07 ECB]  Few anomalies but there was a definite, though mild El Nino. But even the tepid El Nino is breaking up rapidly.  So, more than ever, much of what the weather this year is about is the emerging "Global Warming Syndrome" Winter which is NOT energized by the 11 year and other Solar Activity cycles. More overall energy in the storm fronts seems to be the predominant pattern.  The mild El Nino has already failed in the Southwest and the normal mild conditions have gotten quite frosty.  A few planetary alignments, spaced every couple or three weeks apart, will continue to peak up Solar Activity in modest waves and thus continue to invigorate marine storm fronts though generally they will not be as severe as during the preceding year.

[1-15-07 ECB]   THE ARCTIC EL NINO:  What will continue to be surprising are the strange anomalies which occur in various regions in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in continental centers and the northeastern quadrants. These are probably being produced by the continued warming of the arctic.  This warming and melting is changing atmospheric conditions (not the other way around) along the Artic edges. The change in air circulation is apparently, I deduce but cannot proof at the moment, changing the the Jet Stream, which is changing how the warming oceans are pushing their wet air onto the continents.

EL NINO:   Watch the trend closely. AT THE MOMENT EL NINO HAS FAILED

[1-15-07 ECB]  EL NINO has been dethroned after a brief reign in December.  One wishes the Imperial Junta would be so easy to dethrone.   It is now likely to fade away into La Nina during 2007.  Despite the confusion, all in all, it looks like the Scripps Institute trial prediction, made early this year, "mild" at the end of the year, was closer to reality than the National Weather Bureau, but now both are wrong.

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2007/gsstanim_1-15-07.gif

Temperatures shown in degrees Celsius, bottom scale shows seasonal “variance” by the amount in Celsius.

NOAA EXPLANATION:  Weekly averaged sea surface temperatures (top, °C) and anomalies (bottom, °C) for the past twelve weeks.  SST analysis is the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis, while anomalies are departures from the adjusted OI climatology (Reynolds and Smith 1995, J. Climate, 8, 1571-1583).  MWM:  Otherwise stated, the top graph represents a statistical profile of what probably should be seen while the bottom graph shows the relative amount of variation. 

GEOTECTONIC ACTIVITY: Volcanoes, Shape Shifting, Earthquakes

ALMANAC  |  BACKGROUND  |  EARTHMONITOR LINKS  |  LATEST

SHAPESHIFTING: 
Shape-shifter quakes indicate the spreading of the Rift Valley, the creation of new crust through magma dikes which fills in the cracks of the Great Rift, and hence the inevitable forcing of the Earth’s crust to change its shape to adjust for the new crust.  Most subduction zone quakes (such as the Pacific Rim of Fire) probably occur as a consequence of the shape-shifting of the Earth.

[1-15-07 ECB]  Once again five modest sized quakes struck in widely separated points in the Great Rift of the Earth in the range of 5.0 magnitude. By far the greatest locus of activity was in the Kurile Island to the northeast of Japan. For all quake activity above 5.0, this area produced more quakes than the rest of the world combined for the past seven days.  The 8.2 ocean bottom quake, which is a classic Perihelion Great Quake, began the sequence and since then a small swarm of sizable quakes have struck in the vicinity. Otherwise, frequency and magnitudes were very boring, especially for a Perihelion.   No other locus stood out, activity is widely scattered, though the Himalaya belt remains more active than normal with modest quakes in the range of 4.0

CLICK ON IMAGE FOR EXPANDED VIEW

EARTHQUAKES:

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2006/quakes/worldquakes_1-15-07.gif
http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/gifs/world.gif

Last Seven Days - for earthquakes worldwide magnitude 4.0 plus and U.S. territorial magnitude 2.5 plus; for source list see http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

[1-15-07 ECB]  U.S. quake totals were close to normal though frequency was higher than normal in Nevada for small quakes.

STILL ON TRACK, THIS PREDICTION:

[11-27-06 ECB]  FORECAST - Activity will be mild and uneventful for the next 60 days, beginning a new build up in intensity and frequency during February through May 2007 during the New Moon Perigees.

VOLCANISM:

 [1-15-07 ECB]  World volcanic activity is somewhat less visible than last week though the number of actively erupting volcanoes continues to climb. This is all within the normality of Perihelion.  Active eruptions increased from 19 to 21 in the space of a week and most were emitting at least steam and some ash this week.  Lava was less reported, Kilauea is appearing to ebb, apparently, and Etna continues a fitful sleep it began about the beginning of the month.  But the Sourfriere Hills (Montserrat) continued a major eruption  In general, expect an increased flare up during the next 45 days.  Watch especially for more activity in the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire - Kamchatka Peninsula, Aleutians, Alaska, and Japan or Japanese waters.

General Note:   SWVRC reached a 100% rate of accuracy in predicting eruptions, the first time in their history since 1989.  They also documented 69 eruptions during 2005 and 2006, which most likely defines a peak plateau.  I expect to see even higher in 2007 (based on Wobble parallels) and then another plateauing for a couple years.  So far, the year is beginning with higher than normal numbers for "alert list" volcanoes.  The list has generally begun the year in the range of 60 but it began the year at 71, a record, and is already at 73 just eight days into the year.  Some big events may be cookin'.

Conclusions Independently Reached From Data At The Southwest Volcano Research Center (SWVRC)

http://www.swvrc.org/

 In early January the SWVRC resets their counts.  They carried forward on the active list 16 volcanoes.  These are the volcanoes  which more or less are continuously erupting.  But already since resetting their counts, their Alert List went up 2 and the Active List went up 2.

[1-15-07]   Alert List = 74  (up one from last last week)

[1-15-07]  Restless List = 10  (up three from last week)

[1-15-07]   Active List = 21 (up two from last week)

[1-15-07]  Volcanoes To Watch:  Kamchatka Volcs, Alaska Volcs, Soufriere Hills,  Karthala in the Comoros Islands (Indian Ocean).

 [11-13-06]  New volcanic island has been formed in the Pacific amidst some of the Tonga Islands.  New reef of ash is already larger than one of the inhabited Tonga Islands. This reef has been growing aggressively during the past 120 days.

Home Reef volcano photo courtesy
of the Smithsonian Institution.

[12-04-06 ECB]  Below are some report summaries and links as prepared by John Seach at http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html

John Seach on expeditions this week.

Karthala Volcano (Comoros)
11.75 S, 43.38 E, summit elevation 2361 m, shield volcano
Saturday 13th January 2007
Eruptions began at Karthala volcano yesterday. A red crater glow was observed and residents of Mvouni, a town at 1,000 metres altitude on the volcano's western slope, were woken up by strong fumes.
More on Karthala volcano...

Telica Volcano (Nicaragua)
12.60 N, 86.84 W, summit elevation 1061 m, stratovolcanoes
Wednesday 10th January 2007
Satellite images indicate a possible eruption of Telica volcano in Nicaragua. Ash plume was visible near the volcano on 9th January at 1500 hr local time. The plume extended 35 nautical miles SW of the summit and was 10 nm wide. No hotspot was visible on images.
More on Telica Volcano...
Volcanoes of Nicaragua...

Soufriere Hills Volcano (Montserrat)
16.72 N, 62.18 W,, summit elevation 915 m, stratovolcano
Tuesday 9th January 2007
An explosive eruption began at Soufriere Hills volcano on 8th January at 05:054 local time. Three distinct eruptions were heard at Woodlands north of the volcano. Pyroclastic flows travelled down Gages Valley and Tyres Ghaut into the head of the Belham River Valley with a runout distance of 5 km. Ash was emitted to 30,000 ft. By 09:30 seismicity had returned to background levels.
More on Soufriere Hills Volcano...

Vortex Tectonics: How earth's spin axis creates earthquakes, volcanoes & global warming.

Subscribers can now download a draft review of a few chapters of  "The Nine Trends Changing The World - 1875-2025" - How Global Warming Is Caused By Underwater Volcanism and Why Greenhouse Gas Is Just Hot Air". 

 THE RISING PHOENIX

[11-06-06]  I can now provide numbers and graphs which demonstrate that the current Global Warming trends CAN ONLY be produced by underwater volcanism.  The rising CO2 in the atmosphere is also likely produced by underwater volcanism, which is occurring at a rate underwater which is at least 10,000 times greater than surface volcanism.  With these numbers I am finalizing the proofs of Edgar Cayce’s Earth Change prophecies.  Global Warming is the “fire” of the Phoenix. 

Mean Annual Heat Flux Into The Oceans:  109 Terawatt

This is the amount of mean steady-state heat flux required to cause the warming of the World Ocean from 1957 to 1998.  This amount is three times greater than old theories.

Mean Minimum Annual Heat Flux Into The Oceans:  ~33 Terawatt

(although this is the widely-quoted number in the scientific literature, this is based purely on old-timey speculations which have little basis in actual fact; modern observations provide the basis to reasonably infer much higher numbers)

Mean Maximum Observed Peak Flairs Of Heat Flux:  ~1000 Terawatt
(from observed underwater volcanic eruptions of  a few weeks in duration)

Likely Range Of Annual Volcanic Heat Flux Into The Bottom Of The Oceans:  33 to 150 Terawatt. (This estimate is based on an extensive review of the literature of marine geology and oceanography for the past 25 years.  Numbers were compiled by many authors for various types of underwater volcanism and their numbers are added together to define this range).  They are being added together for the first time here in the Earth Changes Bulletin.  Much more to come.

The last item provides plenty of energy to sustain an empirically-based speculation that Global Warming is caused by underwater volcanism. This is a far more realistic source than the theorized small amount of "reflected heat" from a minute amount of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere.

The implications of this "discovery" are profound.  On the one hand "Greenhouse Gases" are not a direct threat to the climate and spending money on eradication of CO2 emissions in order to stop Global Warming is misguided.  On the other hand, the oceans are slowly warming and climate is changing radically and there is not much we can do about either one.  Furthermore, we have no clear empirical way to estimate what this trend will do in the future.  We can however look back into the past and observe that both short term and long term fluctuations do occur and the amount of change has often swung much further into higher temperatures, higher acidification of the oceans, and wider climate extremes.  In other words, we have no idea what is going to happen next, on empirical grounds, but it can change profoundly more than we know how to describe and can anticipate.

The long and short of it is that Global Warming is a serious threat to all human cultures and it must be assiduously dealt with on every level to avoid profound tragedy.

Mind

GEOPOLITICAL WATCH:  Strategic Assessments

( Mass Behavior, War & Peace, Politics, Black Arts Nation )

Can't run this cartoon this week because unable to confine the display for those using Internet Explorer 7.0  Need a new script or a box to constrain the image size to fit into this space.

Cartoons by Dan Youra at youra.com
http://www.youra.com/utoons/dailytoon.jpg
Thanks Dan for your toons.

Mass Behavior:

[1-15-07] MOOD ALERT FOR JANUARY 15: - 7.5  - fairly high volatility continues in both mental and emotional activity, both personal and collective:  ...impulsive, tense and anxious, highly energized...watch out for ill-considered decisions..

Check out the Mood Alert occasionally at http://www.moodalert.com/
It is astrologically oriented but incorporates solar and geophysical indexes as well.  Cautionary note:  they confuse planetary conjuctions (an astrological term which describes relative positions with the Earth in the center reference point) by calling them planetary alignments, which is an ASTRONOMICAL term which denotes relative positions with the Sun as the center reference point.  We wish they wouldn't do that.  The EC Bulletins uses only a Solar-oriented frame of reference to track planetary alignments.

Economy:

[12-11-06 ECB]  CHINA & THE TRILLION DOLLAR DUMP?  Many sources on the Iway and in the establishment print media, such as the Washington Post, are speculating loudly about the coming collapse of the American Dollar, to be caused in no small part by the decision of China to "dump" their now vast holdings of U.S. dollars (accumulated from the U.S. deficit in the U.S. balance of payments during the past ten years or so) . From this some are drawing the hasty and alarmist conclusion that the dollar will crash suddenly and perversely.  Is such likely?  Frankly I doubt it very strongly.  In the first place, the trillion dollars of U.S. dollars owned by China represents a very large proportion of China's collective savings from the last ten years of economic activity.  If it were yours, would you dump it?  Not likely.  Neither for you, China, nor me.  More likely you would seek arrangements in a number of ways to discretely "spend" the dollars and end up with assets whose value will inflate with any decrease in the value of the dollar.  Is this why we are seeing the irrational lending in the housing market, the current exuberent stock market bubble, etc.  Almost certainly. Almost certainly Chinese money is involved, large blocks of it.   In this way, market forces have been steadily readjusting the value of the dollar for the past 18 months, progressively lowering its value vis a vis everything else, EXCEPT labor.  Labor in both the U.S. and China is progressively losing international parity in value.  This is a "tax" the Chinese seem willing to pay.  What is now new as a result of the recent round of international conferences?  China appears to have completely rebuffed Bush and his imperials.  They appear to have indicated that the Chinese currency will be floated slightly, probably to allow about a 5% to 10% increase in prices, but that's it.  Why?  The answer may be inscrutable.  But it may lie partly in the simple truth that this is the cheapest and easiest way for China, which is after all is said and done a socialist economy, to come into greater and greater ability to defend itself from all capitalist comers, including the Rockefeller/Rothschild Cabal.  The more U.S. dollars the Chinese "own", the more power they have over the American economy and institutions. The more that the U.S. is dependent upon Chinese manufacturing, the greater control China can exert over the destiny of the world. It is that simple.  Eventually, all they have to do is "threaten" to move their money in a certain direction and the entire U.S. economy will tremble.  This is a far more powerful defense strategy than any combination of military assets.  We may now be at this point. Are the Chinese this clever?  Again, an inscrutable truth.  But observe, other than Castro's Cuban revolution, the Chinese communist party is the world's ONLY successful communist party. Despite Mao's destructive demented period, they were smart enough with and after Deng to not only hold the country together, they transferred power peacefully in national elections twice, and they have progressively created a decentalized bureacracy which extols a market economy.  Now all agree, they are busy expanding their market economy as fast as possible. When, the U.S. cannot pay for goods in ways which the Chinese desire, they will have markets throughout Africa, the Middle-East, and Europe for what they are currently selling to the U.S.  Insofar as the debt the U.S. is piling up with China, the U.S. still has plenty of assets which the Chinese could eventually demand.  Space technology.  Black Arts military technology. The Rockefeller/Rothschild Central Bank Accounts.  Etc. In other words, from a long-range social engineering perspective, which the communists do, slow incremental steps in adjusting directions and balances are far more likely to be seen as the most intelligent choices.  Since all current trends are rapidly weakening the U.S. and its Zionazi partners, while strengthening China's holdings, growth, and world influence, sudden "dumps" are likely to be seen as stupid as shooting yourself in the foot.  Having said all this, I expect that another "trim" in the value of the U.S. dollar will easily reach another 20% this year.  Have you seen what has happened across the board in convenience store prices?  Totally unreal.  Inflation in many basic necessity sectors is roaring.

[12-11-06 ECB]  Why is all  the money flooding into the stock market running up the prices?  Many reasons no doubt but two large factors are, (1) that money which used to speculate in real estate has no where else to go and, (2) international dollars are becoming El Cheapo, as can be see in the graph below, much too easy to acquire.  Where else do you want to dump your dollars?  Where else can you dump your dollars?  For these reasons the stock market will hang onto the bitter end of the economic crash of the American empire, which is now just beginning to occur. It will take most of 2007 apparently to play out the collapse.  As it proceeds, the establishment is likely to embrace impeaching Bush as a last ditch effort to retain credibility but it will be far too late.

[12-04-06 ECB]  Here in this graph below is a snapshot of what is happening to the U.S. Economy. Americans are all  loosing a portion of their relative value vis a vis the rest of the world.  As discussed in "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006", the bankers are slowly shifting the world's value into the Euro, letting the U.S. adrift.  This is how the Rothschild Syndicate has decided to "bill us" for the Tragedy in Iraq. This chart reveals only the down payment.  Wait to you see the end of 2007. The euro will easily cost in the range of $1.50 - $1.60.  Bye-bye Miss American Pie, here you can see it slipping right on out the door.

Read this chart by asking what the cost of a Euro (in dollars) was at any point in the year.  The answer is in the right hand column.

http://judicial-inc.biz/us_dollar_versus_the_euro.htm

During the next year the Chinese are going to be forced to revalue their output to maintain a better parity with the rouble and the euro. This will begin the next round of consumer price inflation in the U.S. even while asset deflation begins to follow the breaking of the housing bubbles. Go here and read this story on the mounting hysteria about what the Chinese are going to do with their trillion dollar surplus::

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/
LAC.20061128.RDOLLAR28/TPStory/Business

[10-23-06]  Slowing in all critical regards. Highly recommend that you read Lou Dobbs latest book to penetrate the phony lingo and pitches of the Republicrat shills.

[11-06-06]  Answering a subscriber (and many others):

From: grammies
Subject: Predictions Review
To: mwm@michaelmandeville.com
X-Accept-Language: en-us, en

Sir,

After reviewing your dire predictions:

The "Coming Economic Collapse Of 2006"

How do you reconcile the DOW rise above 12000 and the excellent state of the U.S. economy with your predictions?

[11-06-06] MWM:  Comments:  Dear Grammies, read below. The three articles below I believe provide a good update of the logic presented in the "Coming Economic Collapse of 2006".

Access them all together by going to the ECB Economic Trends

EUR0PEAN UNION ECONOMIC FORECAST

Autumn economic forecasts 2006-2008: solid growth and unemployment and deficits falling

Can the Economy Survive the Housing Bust?

Fortune on CNNMoney.com
By Jon Birger

 

The Dollar's Full-System Meltdown
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article15440.htm
By Mike Whitney
 

War & Peace:

[12-18-06]  During this unusual moment in genuine national discussion over the fate of the nations, made finally with the recognition that the Bush Administration has failed catastrophically,  the predominant opinion of the Generals appears to in fairly close agreement that the situation in Iraq is lost, is out of control (with existing forces), which of course means that it cannot be brought back into control with existing forces, and that existing operations in Iraq cannot be sustained for more than at most several more weeks. IN OTHER WORDS, THE STALEMATE IN IRAQ WHICH WAS SELF-EVIDENT TO MOST OF INTELLIGENT LIFE ON EARTH IN 2004 (except of course to the American Boomers too busy feeding at the trough of their military industrial complex economy to notice much of anything except the latest digital toys and the latest soundbites from George Orwell, oops, that's Bush) HAS GROUND TO ITS INEVITABLE GHASTLY CONCLUSION.  The U.S. cannot apply enough force to control anything except the physical space which immediately surrounds its soldiers.  All the rest of it has become a vast cauldron of mounting hatred, ceaseless violence.  The more force, the more bombs, the more hideous deaths and maiming, the more hatred, the less control...always...the diminishing authority and ability to achieve anything.

Simple equation, far too simple for a great many of the self-styled armchair overlords in the U.S. and Israel to understand.  Despite the essential karmic realities, easily understood by school children in South Africa, India, and the jungles of the Amazon, the Zionazi Junta is making one last major effort to mount up another escalation of the U.S. war effort in the Middle East.  Daily, the iway and the mass media chatter.  Is it 10,000?  Is it 20,000? Gasp, is it 50,000?

I will tell you the exact answer.  It is a very large number. You need 24/7 an armed group of a half dozen men at EVERY intersection in Iraq, a couple dozen at the larger ones.  You need an equal number to run logistics of supply for the soldiers and the people on every block.  Then you seal the country.  Everything stops. So, how many intersections in Iraq?  I do not know the number but I know that it must multiply out to require well over one million armed foreign soldiers to create an overwhelming sense of control. This is to stop the violence on all sides, including the U.S. bombings which create more problems than they solve.

Then you need to hire essentially every available Iraqi who wants to earn a real income. You hire them at real international parities, for values they will work very hard to hold onto.  You hire them to replace yourself.  And to restore all the basics of urban life.  You pay for it with the oil. That is social engineering. It works.  All the empires and nation-building efforts of the past succeeded in direct proportion to their ability to engage most of the adult male population in its organizing programs.

But this is too much for the greater portion of the me-first Republicrat politicos and corporate rape-artists of the Boomer generation.  The greater part of them are simply too intellectually and socially inadequate to stand on universal existential fundamentals and work with them.    They are lost in quaint and useless conversations about non-existent groups like Al Qaeda and how to disarm Mosque self-defense groups. Crazy White Men who advise American policy circles and mass media now stupidly and uselessly discuss how to disarm the ONLY indigenously-organized and functioning groups in Iraq.  Meanwhile, EVERYTHING THEY HAVE TOUCHED IN IRAQ turns to horse manure in the full vision of the nations and the God to whom they pretend to pray.

One wishes it were simply the moron named Bush, or his kinky buffoon, the now-departed Ronald McDumsfeld.  But the problem is deeper.  Perhaps terminally deeper.  There is a very strong possibility that, despite Bush's obvious dementia, the East Coast Boomer Bubble will be persuaded to make one last effort to impose some order on Iraq.  The effort at trying will create incredible consquences in the U.S., including a terminal embitterment of the political system which could end up destroying both of the existing political parties.  It will create even more terrible consequences internationally, if it is permitted to proceed.  The effort, of course, will fail miserably. It will fail because all violence in the Middle East will be broadened and severe financial pressure will be brought on the U.S. to wind up its affairs.  Almost certainly, the U.S. globalist establishment, as perhaps typified by Baker, will also end up persuaded to allow Bush/Cheney to be removed from office by the Democrats. The Globalists will want to build consensus "deals" behind the scenes with Iran and Syria and indeed this is the logical direction in which the U.S. must go to free itself from the horrible little Zionazi incubus which has infected the nation.

So at the moment it appears that all hangs in the balance...twisting partly the whims of a moron and the incubus which which has enthralled it, partly on how many good and astute people stand up to declare the perfectly obvious.  Most likely the first step must be to completely sandbag the moron hiding in the bushes of the White House grounds.  Democrats should both for all great and moral purposes, as well as for purely political expediency, immediately undertake to impeach the Cheney/Bush Junta.

Politics:

 REVISION AS OF JANUARY 15, 2007: 

In November, I predicted:  "First, Democrats will allow themselves to be sucked into a new initiative by the Cabal to "rescue" the failed plan in Iraq. It will take them about six months more to realize that there is absolutely NO MILITARY STRATEGY WHICH WILL WORK."   Intelligence appears to be slowly returning to North American.  Both Democrats and a great many Republicans have seen the light and have concluded that military strategy will not work in the Middle East, most especially under King George.  Sentiment to draw the Imperial Adventure to an end is now overwhelming.  After announcement of a another Iraq Nam escalation in military involvement, euphemistically called a "surge" by propaganda shills, widespread rejection of the machinations of the Imperial Junta has become openly discussed among nearly all circles in the U.S.

This week, announcements made by Democrats aimed at stopping "the surge", have brought King George to announce grandly that Congressional opposition will have no effect on his plans and decisions about Iraq, which now includes daily agit-prop against Iran.  From this it is clear that the main problem in the world today is the continuation of the Bush Presidency.  Increasingly, all vectors in American and international society are beginning to meet at the place where Bush's removal from office, however that occurs, is the only solution which will bring forth the final inevitable tragic conclusion of this long national nightmare.

So far as "the surge", which is just another further escalation of the U.S. into a permanent state of war and a mercenary economy to support the Imperial Junta and its nouveau world-scope "Globalist" aristocracy of old-world Anglo/Yankee/German/Jewish plutocrats, Bush likely will have his way until it brings his utter ruin.  Under his administration and the military doctrines and procedures of the New World Order, which includes using jets to bomb civilian apartments, the intensification of military activity in Baghdad will turn portions of it into bloody and crude killing fields, similar to the brutal excesses at Ramahdi. As his platoons and jets ravage the city, and his propaganda mills attempt to excite war fever against Iran, worldwide opposition to such warfare in general and to King Bush The Arrogant Swagger in particular will reduce American politics and government to gridlock, meltdown, and a final desperate effort to cut the war machine off from funds which deepen the tragedy while seeking to remove Bush from power.

The strong intensification of polarization against Bush during the past few weeks provides room to hope that the institutional powers will yet gather focus and sufficient strength to sideline Bush and begin the liquidation of the tragedy in Iraq.

Black Arts Nation:

Spirit

SPIRITUAL WATCH:  Personal Development

Sacred Circles:  Meditation, Prayer, Guidance

Change Agents: People who matter

Seminars, Gatherings, @ Celebrations