PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Please Note: This Bulletin is conceived as a System. It is still in an early stage of evolution. We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of September 15 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this URL

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_Sept_15_04.htm

BEWARE HURRICANE IVAN - this storm is unbelievably HUGE and will blow long and hard and dump a foot of water over much of the Mississippi River Valley system up through to Ohio. New Orleans will be flooded severely.

On the geophysical front, FOR THIS AMAZING GLOBAL WARMING YEAR, sunspots have momentarily plateaued at 70, leaving weather conditions with only modest energization. Since solar output is likely to decline during the next week, storms should gradually mute out rather than intensify. No El Nino trend is apparent but an anomalous huge patch of warming water between Hawaii and California is still growing and will force Fall weather in North America into chaotic, unpredictable patterns. Meanwhile, Earth’s tectonics remain calm. Volcanism remains largely muted but activity picked up slightly again this week. Seven shape-shifter quakes struck in the Great Rifts of the ocean bottoms this past week, six of these in the Mid Atlantic Rift. Otherwise quake activity was quite subdued compared to the prior week.

On the geopolitical front, the crisis in Iraq has reached critical condition. The Mass Broadcast Media is filtering you so heavily you have no idea what is happening unless you read the newspapers and the Iway. Some say the U.S. is not tough enough, others say that working the politics of the situations is the only way to work. Both sides of the whipsaw arguments which are underway in Washington DC are TOTALLY OUT TO LUNCH. THE UNITED STATES HAS LOST CONTROL OF THE IRAQI STREET AND DO NOT LOOK NOW BUT HAS NOT A PRAYER FOR GETTING BACK IN CONTROL OF IT. CIVIL WAR IS ESCALATING AND MAY SUCCEED BY JANUARY IN DISRUPTING ELECTIONS TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT THEY CANNOT BE HELD. A RADICALLY NEW STRATEGIC APPROACH BY AN ASTUTE LEADER IS IMMEDIATELY NECESSARY TO AVERT FURTHER TRAGEDY. The one sure method for destroying the terrorist and insurgency movements is to help the Islamic community forge a common front to oppose both the crudities of western interference and the barbarism of the jihadists and Baathists. If figures like Al Sistani can rise to the occasion, they are most likely to be the ones who are able to resolve the situation into peaceful conditions and “arrange” the abrupt withdrawal of American troops. Since it is clear that the U.S. is completely incompetent to rebuild Iraq or to indulge its fantasies of Imperial domination through a half-baked military expedition, the more quickly Islamic forces can arrange the withdrawal of American forces, THE BETTER.

Go to detailed synopsis…

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Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmontor/

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007. Click here to download

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008: This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since may 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent. If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF SEPTEMBER 1, 2004:

All projections are on track. This month and next more probable than not are the last months of the last bubble in this 25 year leg of the long term economic cycle. When equities begin to slide this Fall, they will hunt up and down sporadically as the chaos deepens through 2005. Absolute Bottom will be found in 2006 or in 2007 and a very slow increase (not driven by Bull speculation) will probably begin to manifest in 2008. In the interim period, most of the “Fortune 500” will disappear in their current form and their remnants will reappear as vastly different companies..

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF AUGUST 11, 2004: Once again, the Collapse 2006 book TRACKS the unfolding real dynamics, except that the forecasted events are tending to manifest three to fours months earlier. All economic indicators for this July 2004 are DOWN except of course the BIG ONE is UUUUUP (you know what it is, don’t you?). Yes of course, OIL is climbing rapidly, partly based on a 34% increase this year in world demand created largely in ASIA. The progressive devaluation of the PETRO DOLLAR is now unfolding rapidly, despite the best expressed intentions of the House of Saud to hold dollar price stability for their partners, the Bush Family.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JULY 21, 2004 – Several important economic factors and/or indicators are now declining – IF TWO MORE MONTHS OF DECLINES ARE FOUND IN THE KEY FACTORS, IT WILL BE MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT THAT THE DJI HAS PEAKED AND IS NOW HEADED PROGRESSIVELY DOWN. ACCORDINGLY, SEPTEMBER 2004 WILL REVEAL WHETHER THE 25 YEAR ECONOMIC DECLINE HAS FINALLY HIT. IF THE MESSAGE IS “YES”, the Kerry-Edwards ticket most likely will win decisively and the Republican control of Congress most likely will be “cracked”. But there is room for considerable movement in all positions among large numbers of people and it is clear that many events in this fast-paced, unpredictable year could deflect ALL expectations.

HOUSEKEEPING

Some portions of this week’s update was prepared one day early on Tuesday, August 17, others one day later than usual, on August 19.

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time). Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin. To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network.

Begin Synopsis

As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species. As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth. Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it. Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time. Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

A great turning towards peace is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity, EVEN AS the merchants of dominance, hate, revenge, and violence appear to crow even more loudly on the world stage or can be found eagerly arranging a major increase in the tempo of bomb explosions to murder and maime even more people. A consciousness is gathering greater focus to dissolve away the entire Bush-Alqaeda continuum of absolutism and militarism and replace its brutalities with profound movement en masse towards peaceful solutions.

Look for it. Greet it. Nourish it with love.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED:

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird. Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls. The old patterns are falling away. Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO. In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them. This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues. How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration. This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE. To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

North Spin Axis appears to moving fairly normally ..

AS OBSERVED IN PRIOR WEEKS: We have passed the “Y Max” last week. Y Max is the point in the spiral track of the North Spin Axis when it is moving as far to the left on the XY chart of polar motion which is maintained by the IERS agency in France. “Y Max” is where the North Spin Axis is titled as far as it can go towards North America down Longitude West 90. The motion towards “Y Max” may have caused the increased movement of the North American Tectonic Plate to produce the interesting quake activity of the previous weeks.

As the Spin Axis begins its return towards the X Axis, the seismic activity may mirror what happened as it was moving outwards. This may occur during the next Full Moon or New Moon in September.

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth. No real change during the past year: a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

Currently, there is little of note. Despite many claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical analysis of many different regions of the Earth.

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates). For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar. The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows. Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way. http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html

Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets. Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake. You can set any date and time. You should generally ask the form to give you the “equal orbits” view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR Sept. 2004

Distance

Apogee 8-Sep 2:43 404462 km N-6d11h

New 14-Sep 14:29

Perigee 22-Sep 21:13 369599 km F-5d15h

Full 28-Sep 13:09

Apogee 5-Oct 22:11 404326 km F+7d 9h

For the remainder of 2004, see the August 25 EC Update

TODAY’S MOON

We are in Lunation #1011 with the next Full Moon on September 28 at 13:09 UTC. As of September Day 15, the Moon this day is nearly dead on over the Equator just one day past the New Moon. It is now approximately 382,000 KM from the Earth. It is only 1% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase). The next Perigee is Sept 22, about 5 and a half days before the next Full Moon.

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

We entered the seismic window for the New Moon on about September 13 and we will leave it once again on September 17. Since it is so close to the Apogee it has been relatively weak for producing earthquakes. Seismic activity should gradually pick up in tempo and magnitudes once again on about September 20 through to September 24 for the Perigee, thereafter dip again, and then perhaps increase somewhat once again for the Full Moon on September 28. September’s seismic activity should be somewhat weaker over all than August’s. The next two strongest seismic syzygies for 2004 will be the New Moon of November 12 (Perigee within less than two days) and December 12 (Perigee within 20 hours).

For describing the peak danger periods for the most damaging earthquakes. these Perigee syzygies I will define arbitrarily as

November 10 – November 16

December 10 – December 15

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision. For details see the Syzygy website

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit). (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.) For details see the Syzygy website.

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

We are in between planetary alignments at the current time. The next set begins about September 25 and ends about October 3. The next group of alignments involves Mercury aligning with Mar and Jupiter as all three line up in a very close alignment. This would produce quite a bit of activity on the sun.

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2004

September 8, 2004

Mercury | Venus
Most of the planets in general now begin breaking apart widely, the "Summer Knot" become untied. From About September 10 onwards, Mars and Jupiter will be in a slow forming virtual alignment

***September 28, 2004

***Mars is in near alignment with Jupiter as Mercury catches up to form a nearly a straight alignment with Mercury, within 5 degrees, with all other planets widely dispersed
***October 1, 2004

***Mercury | Mars | Jupiter perfected

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR THE NEXT 10 MONTHS

For the next 10 months, four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

The Triple Whammy September Surprise September 28, 2004 - October 1, 2004

Mercury | Mars | Jupiter in a triple alignment

Spots peak about the Fall Equinox and Weather turns into chaos by about October 1, followed by extreme Fall flooding by the middle of October in the usual places.

The Aphelion Six Way Cluster Bomb

At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period. Expect an INTENSELY STORMY WINTER.

December 30, 2004 Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005 Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005 Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts. The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

March 14, 2005 Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005 Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

Summer Ping Pong

June 7, 2005 Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune. The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs.

PLANET WATCHING

For background and the current information on observable planets.

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

The Sunspot Count on September 14 was 70 on a plateau. The Solar Flux dropped from 132 on September 9 to 115 on September 14 where it has been plateaued for the last three days.

Date Flux Sunspots Area

MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT: Spots and flux counts will decline somewhat, highly possible sunspots could once again bottom out at 10 or so for a day or so. Then they will begin to rise again, with the Flux leading the parade, beginning by about September 20.

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March 2004 was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9 April’s count was radically lower at 39.3. The May 2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April. June 2004 was higher still with an average count of 43.2. and July took as even higher to an average count of 51. August’s count dropped the average to 40, which returns us to the point on the general curve which we reached during April 2004.

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated. (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into). Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

The Solar Wind was robust at 579.1 km/s this day while pushing a density of 3.5 protons/cm3”.

In general more activity now and more expected during the next two days than last Wednesday. General consensus: some volatility, more expected

The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) showed a major disturbance yesterday for a major M Class flare. The past 12 hours recorded three modest magnetic storm periods. (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

NASA AURORA WATCH: “There are no large coronal holes on the Earth-facing side of the sun today. Sky watchers in Scandinavia, Canada and Alaska should be alert for auroras tonight. Earth's magnetic field is being buffeted by a high speed solar wind stream, which could spark a high-latitude geomagnetic storm.”

NASA PREDICTS AS OF SEPTEMBER DAY 15: During the next 24/48 hours, probability for an M-class solar flare is at 30% and for an X-class solar flare is at 5%, with a generally 1% - 40% probability for minor to severe geomagnetic disturbances during the next 24/48 hours, depending upon latitude (higher the latitude, higher the probability).

My, that last prediction sure leaves a lot of room for close to 50% probability of anything! Hard to go wrong on those.

Jan Alvestad reports: “The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on September 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 526 and 694 km/sec. Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 114.7. The planetary A index was 28 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 28.5). At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was moderate. A total of 4 C and 1 M class events was recorded during the day….September 13-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed. No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions.”

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on September 15-17. “ Alvestad also predicts a 0% probability of coronal holes, a 0% probability of CME’s, and a 20% - 60% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark. Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

The TRIPLE WHAMMY alignment on September 28 – October 1 between Mercury | Mars | Jupiter should bring another high spike in the Sunspot Count above 100. This peak should begin to form by about September 20 and bring intense, wet Fall storms no later than October 5.

HURRICANE ADVISORY: September 20 through October 2 will provide strong solar ionic influx which will tend to increase the size and severity of Hurricanes. Watch the daily sunspot peak to determine whether a storm will increase or decrease in size.

FLOOD PRONE AREAS: EXPECT MAJOR FLOODING IN THE PERIOD OCTOBER 5 – OCTOBER 20. In North America, Pacific Northwest through to Midwest will be hit hard. But it should be a great year for mushrooms.

WE SURE GOT THIS ONE RIGHT DURING PRIOR WEEKS: MAJOR STORM FRONTS AND EXTENSIVE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS FROM ABOUT SEPTEMBER 12 THROUGH TO SEPTEMBER 20.

STAND PAT ON THIS THROUGH OCTOBER 15: WE CERTAINLY CALLED THIS CORRECTLY FOR THE U.S. AND JAPAN: AS OBSERVED LAST MONTH: weather patterns are tweaked out into chaotic extremes which fit no averages or generalities. Forget predictions, expect anything. THIS CONDITION WILL PERSIST THROUGH SEPTEMBER, CHAOS ALTERNATING WITH PERIODS OF CALMING. CONSIDER THIS STILL ON AS THE STAND PAT PREDICTION OF SEPTEMBER 2004..

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

BEWARE HURRICANE IVAN

LIKE FRANCES, THIS HURRICANE IS OF RECORD-BREAKING SIZE AND WILL DROP A PRODIGIOUS AMOUNT OF WATER. The greatest damage in Louisiana and Mississippi and Alabama will COME FROM RECORD BREAKING FLOODS, both off the ocean and from the rain. The winds should drop to Category 3 as Ivan hits the North Gulf Coast. The “eye” looks like it may pass right over New Orleans.

STAND PAT: IS ANY PATTERN ANYWHERE NORMAL? Nope. I can’t keep up with it and therefore won’t. MORE OF THE SAME. No predictions will call the tune for any area. More extremes during the next 30 days will be quite “normal”.

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR FALL SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

WILD AND WOOLY: The output of the Sun is currently too volatile and unpredictable to give very good predictions. Accordingly, expect 50% probability of anything.

Once we get past this current wave of sunspot induced weather, along about September 20, another wave will begin to form up about October 1^st. The long slow alignments of Mercury, Mars, and Jupiter from September 28 through October 1 should bring sunspots from below 20 up to well above 100 to intensify any Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Marine Storm Fronts coming in off the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

I expect a very wet late September with a lot of rain as well in October with an early “Fall Syndrome” before and after the Mercury alignments at the end of September.. THIS SHOULD BE A GREAT YEAR FOR SHROOMING.

LAST WEEK WE ASKED: HAS “FALL” COME?

For remarks related to the early Fall Season see the Weather Section in the August 25 EC Update

Note as of September-15: The late summer heat wave is slowly dissipating. Overnight lows are now down below 70 in the foothills..

KEEP WATCHING FOR THIS PATTERN: Global Warming could easily intensify the seasons, making a short bitterly cold Winter, longer intermediate stormy Spring and Fall seasons, and shorter but very hot and dry summers. Don’t we already see this pattern at work in the Northern Hemisphere?

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This “sloppycast” is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: For a large part of the elevations below 4000 feet in the Southwest, the general drought in the Western U.S. is still holding sway. Only the Winter of 2005 remains a hope at this point. At this point, everyone in the Southwest should begin to pray in earnest for a HUGE El Nino effect. During the last El Nino, the Southwest received substantial water.

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
The watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; Click here for the NOAA window on the Pacific Ocean Temperatures:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

CLASSIC EL NINO – We do not at this point know whether an El Nino is in the offing for 2005. There are no signs of it along the Equator in the Pacific. Purely in accordance with the X Wave correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model, AN EL NINO IS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT IN 2005. But, the El Nino is not like an astrophysical cycle. There are some “missing” El Nino’s in the record of the 20^th century and we may have a missing one. HOWEVER, WE CAN’T BE CERTAIN UNTIL ABOUT APRIL OF 2005, which is about the latest month in which the syndrome has formed up during previous El Nino’s.

INSTEAD, AS REPORTED IN PRIOR WEEKS, a huge spot of warm water, considerably above average range, has concentrated in the zone between Hawaii and California. This patch is huge and is now stable as of September 5. This MUST BE HAVING A HUGE IMPACT ON ALL MARINE AND WEST COAST WEATHER PATTERNS ALREADY. This is not your normal pattern at all and it will create some El Nino characteristics in the Fall Weather for the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Coast of North America. It should be highly productive of wet warm marine air seeking to flow into North America along the more northerly latitudes.

By increasing and altering the pattern of the flow of wet marine air into North America, this patch of warm water (up to about eight degrees higher than normal in its center) will effect the weather of North America through the Mid-West and even into New England and Eastern Canada. If it persists into December, we should see exceptionally heavy snowfalls in all mountain areas

Accordingly, we are flying into Weather chaos. Until a RECOGNIZABLE trend forms up, it is impossible to predict what is going to happen on this front.

ADDITIONAL NOTE: The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS. Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year. So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC, ANTARCTIC, and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories of the climate shift.

GLOBAL WARMING

It is becoming obvious that we have a long term real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the latitudes. This climate shift is creating a growing environmental disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the Pacific Southwest. For the latest short review, see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 26, 2004 and the Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 18, 2004

It is apparent from dozens and hundreds of reports from around the world that “global warming” is accelerating climate shifts and ecological changes around the world. These changes are so varied in such great quantity, it is difficult to summarize the shifts which are going on but it is impossible to ignore them.

LOOK FOR THE “HEADLINES ON EARTH NEWS” WHICH I OCCASSIONALLY SEND. THERE IS SO MUCH HAPPENING ON THIS FRONT IT IS DIFFICULT TO EASILY SUMMARIZE IT.

For latest comments on Global Warming,

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 25, 2004

For backgrounder information about Global Warming and how to look for it and correlate it to the real causes (solar influx and tectonic heat rifts in the bottoms of the oceans), see

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 14, 2004

IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY & MASS BEHAVIOR

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK SO IT IS: Emotional reactions are turning quite hot again. The terrorist attack on the Russian School Children was emotional and profoundly stupid. The rise of mass anger in Russia will max greatly on this Mercury | Venus sunspot peak and accelerate a profound and terrible shift in Russian policy.

Russia’s president is already advocating sweeping changes in the power of the Presidency to enable him to more forcefully deal with terrorist activity. Putin has issued his own “fatwa”, so to speak, and has assumed the same power Bush has claimed to intervene anywhere in the world to deal with terrorists.

CONFIRMED: AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: The ionic flux and the human contradictions of denial have focused people into thinking and plotting intensely their next round of moves within a highly polarized mental and emotional atmosphere. Expect heavy choppiness in all things human. Sudden shifts, both good and ill, everywhere.

Most recently this past two weeks there has been a strong chop in the polls IN SUPPORT of Bush. But these things have come and gone both ways. As the year progresses, the polls could begin to chop the other way for a spell (by a spell) as the mass mind focuses on other things.

All in all, expect heavy emotional hard-line responses and activity during the next three weeks, volatile sudden changes and activities tending to produce chaos in events and confusion in the minds of large numbers of people.

After October 5, conditions should settle out and crystallize slowly through October and November and December. The are no planetary alignments until December 30.

Whatever crystallizes out during October is likely to remain a constant until the alignments of January 5, 2005. Given world conditions, the crystallization between humans is likely to be highly polarized and highly charged with emotional energy.

It is likely then, that whatever “surprises” and sudden changes may be coming our way are likely to right around the first week in October 2004 and the events of that period will tend to dominate the remainder of the year.

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above. Unfortunately there are many lags in reporting of information about quakes, thus neither the numbers of quakes nor the actual quakes discussed may be complete and accurate. Real time analysis of quake patterns is merely AN APPROXIMATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION. FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS, Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do. See Syzygy.com

As befitting a New Moon Syzygy, seismic activity was up very modesty in frequency for the past seven days but it did not match the multiple 7.0 magnitude quakes of the prior week. Only four 6.0 to 6.1 quakes struck in diverse places, including a 6.0 mag quake in the Philippines and another one in the Cayman Islands on the Carib Plate. Four quakes struck in the Philippines, which were mirrored on the opposite side of the Pacific with several quakes striking along the Andes in South America and several along the Baja California Plate. New Zealand, as it often is, was also in the top most active seismic zones for the past seven days.

Last week’s activity in Japan was followed by only three quakes above 3.0, though another three struck in the Kuril Islands just to the North of Japan. All these quakes were in the range of 4.0 – 5.0.

All the usual places were struck with very modest levels of seismic activity except for the Great Rift. Shape-shifting Activity in the Great Rift escalated significantly from two during the prior week to seven ranging from five quakes of 4.3 to 5.3 in the Northern Mid-Atlantic Rise, to a 4.7 on the Antarctic Plate Margin below South America and a 5.6 in the middle of the Indian Ocean Ridge.

Three of these shape-shifters were due East of the Carib Plate, which hosted another three quakes of similar size, plus the 6.0 near the Cayman Islands.

COSA NOSTRA DAMUS WATCH FOR SOUTH CAL.

Two new quakes in the low 4.0 range struck off the coast of Oregon but these were well out to sea some 200 or so Kilometers. These were not experienced on the Coast.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: according to the Cosa Nostra Damus Prophecy, a major destructive quake could now strike at any time in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Hollywood, the Van Nuys Valley region, Bakersfield, and anywhere along the escarpment of the San Bernardino Mountains. This will be a follow up to the 4.9 quake which was felt in Coos Bay Oregon during July 2004. If a quake occurs near Santa Barbara, warnings will need to be given to Mexico City about the possibility of a major explosive event in Popo.

SLOW EARTH MOVEMENT WATCH

No reports to add this week

SHAPE-SHIFTERS WATCH

The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around the world increases. (Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 3.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are 4.5 plus in magnitude.) For additional information on Plate Tectonics and charts of the Great Rift of the Earth, go to Plate Tectonics Map

The USGS World Chart for the past seven days shows seven shape-shifter quakes in the Great Oceanic Rift, five in the Northern portion of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, a 5.6 in the Indian Ocean Ridge and a 4.7 on the margin of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate connected with the Mid Atlantic.

In the Mid-Atlantic

04/09/11 19:59:06 4.3M NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

04/09/12 17:36:28 4.9M NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

04/09/13 17:15:05 5.3M NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

04/09/15 00:17:33 4.6M AZORES ISLANDS, PORTUGAL

04/09/15 02:31:45 4.7M AZORES ISLANDS, PORTUGAL

Others:

Magnitude 5.6 MID-INDIAN RIDGE

Monday, September 13, 2004 at 02:39:02 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_niam.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 16.23S 67.10E

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region MID-INDIAN RIDGE

Reference 545 km (340 miles) NE of Rodrigues Island, Mauritius

1110 km (690 miles) ENE of PORT LOUIS, Mauritius

2925 km (1810 miles) SSW of COLOMBO, Sri Lanka

Magnitude 4.7 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Monday, September 13, 2004 at 04:47:54 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_niat.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 57.56S 24.35W

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Reference 200 km (125 miles) ESE of Visokoi Island, South Sandwich Islands

205 km (125 miles) NE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

3615 km (2250 miles) SE of BUENOS AIRES, Argentina

NORTH AMERICAN WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude. Any numbers used in this section may or may not be accurate and may or may not reflect what will eventually appear in scientific databases.

Seismic activity in North America overall for quakes in the range of 1.0 and over was general up this last week for the past seven days. This is as is expected with the New Moon Syzygy period we are currently in.

521 quakes in U.S./Alaska as a whole, up from 440 the prior week. Five of these were in the Madrid Fault zone of Iowa down to Arkansas and Tennessee

333 in California and Nevada, up from 250 last week, widely scattered in California and Nevada,

30 small microtremors in the PNW, down from 42 last week, widely scattered in Washington State mainly along the Cascades.

15 in Utah, down from 17 last week.

16 n the Mammoth Lakes, Long Valley Volcanic Cauldera area, up from 10 last week,

YELLOWSTONE WATCH

Activity this past seven days increase slightly with 10 quakes in Yellowstone, up from only 8 last week. These were widely scattered through the Yellowstone park zone.

WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES

Magnitude 6.0 CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION

Thursday, September 09, 2004 at 16:33:23 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_nebd.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 17.77N 81.54W

Depth 40.8 kilometers

Region CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION

Reference 170 km (105 miles) S of GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands

255 km (160 miles) E of Swan Island

375 km (235 miles) NE of Puerto Lempira, Honduras

900 km (560 miles) S of Miami, Florida

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre. Or see “Breaking Volcano Eruption News”.

ONCE AGAIN, FOR THE THIRD WEEK IN A ROW, WORLD VOLCANIC ACTIVITY PICKED UP SLIGHTLY WITH ASH EMMISSIONS FROM MANY VOLCANOES AND SIGNIFICANT LAVA FLOW FROM ETNA. (This is a fairly subjective guestimate based on the numbers and data reported by the SWVC, quake data, and other reports).

Etna was quite active this past week. Approximately half the 23 volcanoes on the active list have reported explosions and ash and/or gas emissions during the past week.

Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of September Day 15 2004

6 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment) (down one from week)

48 on alert list (pre-cursors suggesting that activity may begin) (up 2 from last week)

23 on active list (seismic, gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (same as last week)

Popo gave a 14 puff day yesterday. Centrapred reports for September Day 15 (17:00 GMT) that “"In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of Popocatepetl volcano, recorded only 14 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and gas emissions. Yesterday at 18:59 h, there was a volcano-tectonic microearthquake of magnitude 2.1 and depth of 4.6 km, was located 7.5 km from the crater on the South-East sector. Also today at 05:05 h, there was a volcano-tectonic microearthquake of magnitud 1.9 and depth of 1.9, was located on the crater. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At the moment of this report it is possible to distinguish a small steam and gas emission."

MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK

from Volcano Breaking News by Volcanologist John Seach

Volcano Travel: john@volcanolive.com

Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT + 10 hr)

Mt Etna (Italy)

37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation 3350 m, Shield volcano

Thursday 16th September 2004

Both effusive openings on the western side of the Valle del Bove have reduced their output of lava. The lava flow, beginning at the mouth of the 2,620 metre summit, reached a maximum length of 1,450 m but has almost stopped, just like the smaller one near Monti Centenari at 1,900 metres. It was also noted that near the eruption scene there was an absence of gases and tremors: both signs that the magma is not rising towards the surface.

More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Mt Etna (Italy)

37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation 3350 m, Shield volcano

Tuesday 14th September 2004

Yesterday, a new lava flow developed at Mt Etna volcano. At 1235 hr (local time) a new effusive mouth opened at 2520m elevation, 400m from the flow of 10th September. After 90 minutes, the lava had flowed 30m towards the Valle del Bove. The activity of the effusive mouth at 2620m elevation is identical to the observations made yesterday. The flow rate of lava is constant, for the second day, and degassing at the exit of the mouth continues. Mt Etna is coming back to activity after being quiet for 22 months.

More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Mayon Volcano (Philippines)

13.257 N, 123.685 E, summit elevation 2462 m, stratovolcano

Monday 13th September 2004

Volcanic material was emitted by Mayon volcano late yesterday, setting fire to grass on the volcano's slopes. A crater glow was visible to the naked eye, indication the proximity of magma to the surface. Mayon volcano remains on alert level two, which means that the volcano is undergoing abnormal activity but an eruption is not yet imminent. There is a six kilometer exclusion zone around the crater.

More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Mauna Loa Volcano (Hawaii)

19.47 N, 155.60 W, summit elevation 4170 m, shield volcano

Monday 13th September 2004

Since July 2004, there have been increasing numbers of deep, long-period earthquakes beneath Mauna Loa volcano. Through the first week of September, more than 350 earthquakes were centered beneath Mauna Loa’s summit caldera and the adjacent part of the southwest rift zone. Such a concentrated number of deep LP earthquakes from this part of Mauna Loa is unprecedented, at least in our modern earthquake catalog dating back to the 1960s. Lengthening, uplift, and tilting measuremets indicate swelling of the magma reservoir within the volcano. Volcanologists don't believe that an eruption is imminent, but it does show restlessness of the volcano. Mauna Loa last erupted for three weeks in 1984, sending a 16-mile lava flow toward Hilo.

More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Mt Etna (Italy)

37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation 3350 m, Shield volcano

Saturday 11th September 2004

A new fracture has opened on Mt Etna at 2620m elevation, without seismic warning. The new fissure, combined with a layer of snow, created impressive explosions. Lava was erupted at a rate of 0.5m/s and was 8 m wide.

More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Egon Volcano (Indonesia)

8.67 S, 122.45 E, summit elevation 1703 m, stratovolcano

Saturday 11th September 2004

Further eruptions were reported yesterday from Mt Egon volcano, where emissions reached 5000m above the crater. 2000 people have been evacuated from the slopes of Egon volcano, as it erupted for the second time in two months. A white plume was emitted to a height of 3000 m earlier in the week, accompanied by ejection of rocks and lava. Egon began to erupt last Sunday, affecting thousands of hectares of cacao, coffee, vanilla and clove plantations. Mount Egon is one of numerous active volcanoes in Indonesia. Its crater is 525 meters-by-425 meters in diameter, and has a depth of between 47.5 meters and 195 meters.

More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Mt Etna (Italy)

37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation 3350 m, Shield volcano

Thursday 9th September 2004

The eruption of Mt Etna on 7th September was the first on the volcano in 22 months. It was not preceded by seismic activity. The eruption began with a fissure opening up at the base of SE crater at an elevation of 2983m. The fissures are 15-20 cm wide and 0.4m deep. At an elevation of 2936m, there was a 180m long lava flow observed from one of the fissures on Tuesday. The lava flowed towards the Valle del Bove at a rate of 0.5 m/sec. By 1700 hr, the lava flow had reached 2850m elevation, with significant degassing along the flow. The summit craters do not have any lava. By Wednesday evening, the lava flow had stopped at an elevation of 2850m, after traveling 292m. Yesterday afternoon seismic activty was being recorded at Mt Etna, with increasing frequency and strength. These new developments at Mt Etna could signify the start of a new period of eruptions.

More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Standing Assessment: Likely, it is fair to conclude that the not-so-invisible Black Arts Nation, from HAARP to the Navy, to the Bush/Ashcroft prisons in Iraq/Afghanistan and Cuba, not to mention many other technologies, areas, and programs, are far out of ethical, moral, constitutional, and treaty control, as has been widely feared.

BLACK ARTS NATION

STAY TUNED. We are just on the front edge of “the outing”….

ECONOMY WATCH

NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK – DESPITE AS MUCH ORWELLIAN SORCERY AS THEY CAN THROW AT THE NATION TO FOOL THE RUBES WHO BELIEVE THAT THE MYSTICAL AMERICAN DREAM IS THE BIRTHRIGHT OF ALL THOSE WHO VOTE FOR THE RIGHT GUY, THE REPUBLICRATS HAVE VERY LITTLE TO SHOW EXCEPT THE CARNY CON OF THE THREE SHELLS, GUESS WHICH ONE HAS THE PROOF THAT THE ECONOMY IS GROWING. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A RECOVERY, THERE ARE GROWING SIGNS OF A RECESSION AND CLEAR EVIDENCE OF A STAGFLATION DYNAMIC SETTING (RISING PRICES WITH NO GROWTH).

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED

CONFIRMED CONFIRMED CONFIRMED

YOU ARE COOKED

-----AS PREDICTED IN PREVIOUS WEEKS: “Conditions are clearly tilting SOUTH, as in a decline down hill. The Bush League Boom is over before it started.”

All economic indicators for July were down and we are not far from the Ides of September, by which we will know the most important indicators

AS PREDICTED IN PRIOR WEEKS: Beware the IDES OF SEPTEMBER IN ALL FINANCIAL MARKETS. Emotions will be depressed, the plutocracy will begin to feel that its free ride under Bush is nearly over, confidence will be shot, and numbers will be slip-sliding away.

ALL CONDITIONS IN THE MARKETS ARE MIXED WITH CHAOTIC CONTRARIAN MOVEMENTS. EVERYTHING IS TOO VOLITILE TO SEE MUCH FOREST FOR THE FALLING TREES. A LOT OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH EXCEPTIONAL EFFORTS TO HUFF AN PUFF THE ILLUSION OF AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY DESPITE INDUSTRIES CUTTING PRODUCTION AND JOBS RIGHT AND LEFT.

COLLECTIVE DENIAL IS IN VOGUE ON THE EAST COAST

FOR THE LASTEST DETAILED DISCUSSION

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

FOR THE STAND PAT ECONOMIC PREDICTION FOR THIS YEAR,

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of May 12 2004

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES

The DJI finished September Day 15 at 10,231.36 down about $75 from last Wednesday at 10,313.36. We are very very close to the top of the market for the next several years.

AS PREDICTED LAST FEW WEEKS: THIS IS PROBABLY THE

MINI BUBBLE FOR SEPTEMBER

PREDICTION OF PREVIOUS WEEKS

CONFIRMED CONFIRMED CONFIRMED

THANK YOU ALAN GREENSPAN,

CHIEF FINANCIAL MARKETS SORCERER:

“PAY ATTENTION: All the King’s Sorcerers and All the King’s Bagmen will conspire earnestly after the Republican convention this next week to lift the markets. But it isn’t going to work very well.”

The cut in auto production and the collapse of Delta Airlines trumps the politicos. These are merely the tip of iceberg.

Hot air might have worked for a rebound through September and October for a few hundred points. But I doubt the hot air is going to rise it much for very long.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: Don’t wait for Christmas Retail Sales…they will be disappointing, depress the stock values, and lead into the final economic collapse. When the DJI is above 10,000, liquidate anything you have in all such equities anywhere. The DJI MAY HIT 10,500 AGAIN during late September but DON’T COUNT ON IT. And if it does, it will be only a signal spike which will break the market for many months, if not many years.

FOR THE LAST CURRENT DETAILED DISCUSSIONS SEE:

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

EURO WATCH

The dollar closed today at 0.8228 up very slightly from 0.8207 per euro a week ago.

REVISION OF PREDICTION: “The overall erosion is likely to slowly continue through the year and may bottom at $0.70 per euro by the end of 2004.” The international inflation of the dollar, which is being forced by international dynamics, is being made by revaluing the dollar against the barrel of oil and other basic major commodities. At the moment, and so far this year, there is very little relative movement vis a vis the Euro.

Major efforts are being made right now to reduce the price of oil below $40/barrel. Production is being expanded everywhere it can be. Saudi Arabia is trying to deliver the goods at lower prices to maintain Bush in power.

MUST READ: “The Dollar Panics” in “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, which lays out the dynamics of what is happening

SURVIVAL WATCH

FOOD WATCH

For latest info, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of July 7, 2004

JOB WATCH

For latest info, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of July 7, 2004

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, who is now widely described as the biggest corporate swindler of all time, is still scott free. (ONE OF THE WORST ECONOMIC TERRORISTS OF ALL TIME). But now finally after waiting for two or so years, Lay has been indicted. Notice the timing, near the end of the first term of the Bush Administration. At this time I will hazard the guess that he will be pardoned by Bush during the final days of his administration, probably December of this year. ANOTHER NEARLY EQUAL SIGN OF THE TIMES: The lawyers who have been settling the Enron collapse for all parties, are billing the remaining net assets of Enron for approximately $1 billion for their services. This is a new heavenly-ordained definition for the term Chutzpah. I CALL IT CLASS ECONOMIC TERRORISM.

POLITICAL WATCH

For general overview on the Tragedy in Iraq and the Bureau-Political Civil War in Washington DC, I highly recommend Tom Dispatch.

STAND PAT – No changes this week

See Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 7 2004

THE WORLD AWAITS THE DEPARTURE OF THE BUSH REGIME.

IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MOST DECISIVE AMMUNITION AGAINST THE IMPERIAL FACTION IS YET TO BE LOBBED….

THE SENSE OF MORAL OUTRAGE IS STILL BUILDING…

…PEOPLE ARE WAITING FOR THE RIGHT TIMING…

…I HAVE THIS FEELING THAT FIREWORKS WILL EMERGE IN OCTOBER.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: Bush remains in every way an “untouchable” international pariah such as has not been seen since the days of Stalin. The problem is the lying. To touch this tar baby, one risks becoming befouled with the lies from even the barest minimum of association. WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT IS ANYONE’S GUESS. American politics has never been so unpredictable. Doubtless the Bush Administration and virtually the entire Imperial Faction is or will be caught up in legal issues and press controversies which will pile higher and higher. To counter the attacks and legal moves against them, the Bush-iters will use every sorcery they can contrive to conceal everything which is not nailed down in plain site in front of the New York Times. They will even chip away at that late at night. They will use Saddam Hussein in every way possible to rationalize their existence, deeds, and legitimacy to be re-elected. Every lie and form of bigotry they have ever used will be retred to denigrate Kerry, Edwards, Nader, and every other candidate for lower office. The meltdown of U.S. politics into a world-class cesspool manipulated by a sordid class of third rate sorcerers will be nearly complete.

BUT PERHAPS THIS IS JUST AN ANNEALING PROCESS, THE TIME OF THE EXPOSIING AND BURNING AWAY OF THE CRAP. PERHAPS WE ARE NOW FINALLY FIGHTING IN ONE OF THE LAST CHAPTERS IN THE STRUGGLE FOR THE SOUL OF AMERICA WHICH BEGAN ON THE STREETS OF BERKELEY WITH THE FREE SPEECH MOVEMENT AND THE REALIZATION THAT THE

VIETNAM

WAR WAS A HIDDEOUS MISTAKE.

A new media now arrives, floating down the river Iway, and with it comes a new consciousness of the world and the lies which have driven so much of the past 50 years….

From this, the future will arise as the old world slowly collapses.

All else is fluid, in transition. Thank God Almighty!

THE STRATEGIC SITUATION – Final Synopsis
For predictions related to the mess in Palestine, the Middle East, and the Bush political era.

CONDITIONS IN IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST

ARE IN EXTREME CRISIS

The entire world continues to witness the American impasse in Iraq. American policy and management are now clearly on trajectory to a catastrophic loss.

As reported in prior months: Since May 2004 it has been obvious that the U.S. Military was adrift without a rudder AND MISSING ITS PADDLES whilet attempting a turn-around far up the creek named Iraq.

Each week, the morass of violence gradually increased. During this past two weeks there has been another major increase in the level of violence. The insurgency is now a widespread civil war involving some 20,000 armed insurgents (estimated by various press sources) conducting hundreds of hit and run operations every day. The levels of violence are so bad, the mercantile class is beginning to close their shops again. People everywhere are losing the ability to function. There is no freedom nor security in Iraq, just massive fear. People and sources from outside the U.S. who do not work with American media are reporting that the level of problems in Iraq is much higher than Americans are being told by their press.

This trendline spells defeat for the Americans during the next 120 days. It is quite apparent that the insurgency and Alqaeda are hell bent to defeat the proposed elections in January 2005. For Alqaeda, this means that they will keep the killing fields open for a longer period of time. They will keep the U.S. mired hopelessly in a non-win condition while terrorists jab the Bull with a succession of lances to bleed it dry in the sands of the desert.

Under existing conditions and U.S. military management, Osama Bin Laden knows that it is just a matter of time before the U.S. is forced to withdraw its troops. If he can be the agent which forces the withdrawal, he will will a huge victory and move the entire Middle East in his direction. Accordingly it is extremely important to deny him this victory. But a bellicose, aggressive American Bull rampaging ever harder in the Middle East IS NOT THE WAY TO BLOCK OSAMA’S VICTORY. IT IS THE ONE SURE ROAD TO TOTAL DEFEAT.

Soon the U.S. will be at the LBJ Moment Of History. The LBJ Moment was in 1968 when he realized that both he and the establishment were wrong about Vietnam, that he had lost control. He decided not to deal with it and withdrew from office, allowing someone else to be elected President.

We won’t replay that same scenario under Bush. This time the entire nation will be in LBJ’s Moment. The entire nation is coming to a moment when they are going to have to decide whether to convert the U.S. into a massive war mobilization (which many in Washington DC have made plain that want) or to turn course abruptly to create peace.

HERE IS ANOTHER WE HAVE CALLED CORRECTLY: AS OBSERVED IN PRIOR WEEKS: The strategic impasse which has paralyzed the American military machine continues while time erodes the viability of the American position in Iraq, throughout the world, and indeed, within North America. Once again, the initiative is likely to be taken up in the Mid-east by the growing legions of radical jihadists in Gaza, the West Bank, in Iraq, in Saudi Arabia, and in many other venues.

HERE IS THE MAIN HOPE OUT OF THIS STRATEGIC IMPASSE:

AN AUTHENTIC ISLAMIC MORAL AUTHORITY IS ARISING AND IS BEGINNING TO FORGE A COALITION TO UNIFY IRAQ AND BRING CIRCUMSTANCES TO THE POINT WHERE THE AMERICANS CAN BE ASKED TO LEAVE. QUICKLY.

THE ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE FORGED BY JANUARY. MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT, THE MULLAHS WILL ARRANGE THE ELECTION OF A GOVERNMENT WHICH ASSERTS ITS SOVEREIGNTY AND ASKS THE U.S. TO LEAVE VIRTUALLY IMMEDIATELY.

PASS THE WORD: THIS IS HOW IT WILL END IN IRAQ, NEITHER BY BUSH NOR BY KERRY.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: The U.S. Ship of State sails through extremely dangerous historical waters. Major tragedies which change the course of history can occur at any moment. Al Qaeda has the U.S. just exactly where they want it, its military extended and exposed to the grenades of an endless Arab "snipe hunt" across a vast unfriendly territory which ranges from Palestine to Pakistan. Al Qaeda uses random attacks like the lances of bullfighters, to weaken and confuse the American Bull. Their strategy is winning, mainly because Bush, Rumsfeld and his Imperial Faction are incompetent buffoons and continue to step into the traps Al Qaeda lays as well as hand-delivering on a silver platter an oafish continuation of the killing fields of Iraq. An astute leader could turn the entire situation around in 120 days but none has arisen among the Americans.

STAND PAT ON the latest dossier, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of July 7, 2004

Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at mwman@earthlink.net
Master Website Index is at: http://www.michaelmandeville.com

Author of several books, including: "Return of the Phoenix" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/phoenix/phoenix.htm
and "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006.htm
_________________________________________________
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