PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Monitoring The Changes In The Earth

edited by Michael Wells Mandeville copyright October Day 6 2004

                                                                                                             

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Please Note:  This Bulletin is conceived as a System.  It is still in an early stage of evolution.  We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

 

 

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of October 6 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report?  Here exclusively is this week’s  "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

 

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this  URL

 

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_Oct_6_04.htm

 

 

On the geophysical front,  FOR THIS AMAZING GLOBAL WARMING YEAR, sunspots remain at 40 and solar activity has been very low for the past week, with no action in sight, leaving weather conditions with very little solar energization. Storms are now muting out their intensify and there are no longer any Hurricanes in the cue.  No El Nino trend is apparent and the anomalous huge patch of warming water North of Hawaii is now shifting towards Japan, which will allow weather in North America to normalize. After the rifting of the Mid Atlantic Ridge two and a half weeks ago, swarms of West Coast quakes and volcanic emissions from St. Helens arose and are now abating.  Now once again World volcanism is abating and so is worldwide seismic activity

 

On the geopolitical front, once again the good news remains in the economy for the moment, the need to rebuild is stimulating a uptick in the economy.  This gives everything a little more life for the next few months. Further good news is evident in the collapse of Bush’s “bubble”.  Despite a great deal of pessimism, the Presidential debate pricked it and the next two debates will likely deflate it some more.  The bad news is that, as everyone now knows, the crisis in Iraq has reached critical condition. As things stand, the U.S. is losing the struggle in Iraq and helicopter evacuations will probably end this tragedy near the summer of 2005.  But will a political disaster befall the U.S. before that moment? Most recently the Carter Center has put the world community on notice that the election machinery in Florida has been so slovenly managed and ludicrously manipulated once again by the Bush family, that every detail at every location must be intensively watched to insure a fair result

 

…and you think this country is polarized now.

 

 

Go to detailed synopsis…

 

This hidden column on the right  is available for links, banners, and icons of Earth Changes Bulletin subscribers who have made their annual donation.  Inquire by sending query for exact procedure by sending a REPLY to the Earth Changes Bulletin weekly email update.  YOU MUST HAVE BEEN SUBSCRIBED FOR AT LEAST 30 DAYS TO QUALIFY (or a previous subscriber).. 

 

NOTES

Grayed items are not yet operational

 

 

 

Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well.  They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth.  Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects  The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors.  Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together.  This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.  The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences.  The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

 

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/

 

 

PREVIOUS
WEEKLY

UPDATES

 

October 6, 2004

September 29, 2004

September 22, 2004

September 15, 2004

September 8, 2004

September 1, 2004

August 25, 2004

August 18, 2004

August 11, 2004

July 28, 2004

July 21, 2004

July 14, 2004

July 7, 2004

June 30, 2004

June 23, 2004

June 16, 2004

June 9, 2004

June 2, 2004

May 26, 2004

May 19, 2004

May 12, 2004

 

 

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007.  Click here to download

 

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008:  This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since may 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent.  If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything. 

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF SEPTEMBER 29, 2004: 

The main proviso in all things is “The October Surprise”.  This is such a strong psychic impression among a great many, I will now be surprised if there is NOT an “October Surprise”.  Since the October surprise is widely expected to be highly negative, it most likely will influence all markets negatively.  In the main, hold to the course laid out months ago. There will likely be some recovery in the equity markets to rise the DJI closer to 10,500 before it heads South for good sometime next year, probably early.  Oil prices are substantially higher than anyone thought and part of the reason is completely logical, oil production is depressed by weather and political disturbances, while Asian demand is soaring at a much more rapid rate than expected.  This is softening equity markets in the U.S. and inflating the petro-dollar with rapidly rising international commodity prices.  I normally stay away from gold, but it looks good at this time, but only for a quick flip during the next year. But don’t buy unless you “know when to fold ‘em”. 

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF SEPTEMBER 1, 2004: 

All projections are on track.  This month and next more probable than not are the last months of the last bubble in this 25 year leg of the long term economic cycle.  When equities begin to slide this Fall, they will hunt up and down sporadically as the chaos deepens through 2005.  Absolute Bottom will be found in 2006 or in 2007 and a very slow increase (not driven by Bull speculation) will probably begin to manifest in 2008.  In the interim period, most of the “Fortune 500” will disappear in their current form and their remnants will reappear as vastly different companies..

 

 

 

 

 

 

HOUSEKEEPING

 

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time).   Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin.  To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network

 

 

 

Begin Synopsis

 

 As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species.  As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth.  Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it.  Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

 

 

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time.  Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

 

WE WERE RIGHT ABOUT THIS CALL MADE TWO WEEKS AGO >>> IGNORE THE TOUTATIS ASTEROID SCARE – No credible scientific source is reporting anything close to a close call.  It is passing by us at over four Lunar distances in a few days.  NASA reports that the orbit is predictable, which means it is stable.  NASA and the astronomy buffs around the world are highly competitive and all of them have a great self-interest in being the first to find “provocative news”.  If there was anything closer with Toutatis, it would be raging news in serious venues. As it is, the entire scare is based on “psychic sources”, most likely originated by the Billy Meier group.  My prediction, Billy Meier will be proven wrong. BILLY MEIER WAS PROVEN WRONG. 

 

KEEP FOCUSING ON PEACE, DISENGAGEMENT FROM HOSTILITY, RESOLUTION OF CONFLICT,

 

WALKING AWAY FROM WARS AND LEADERS WHO CREATE WARS

 

A great turning towards peace is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity, EVEN AS the merchants of dominance, hate,  revenge, and violence appear to crow even more loudly on the world stage or can be found eagerly arranging a major increase in the tempo of bomb explosions to murder and maime even more people.   A consciousness is gathering greater focus to dissolve away the entire Bush-Alqaeda continuum of absolutism and militarism and replace its brutalities with profound movement en masse towards peaceful solutions.

 

Look for it.  Greet it.  Nourish it with love.

 

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird.  Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls.  The old patterns are falling away.  Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

 

EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO.  In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them.  This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.

 

 

 

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues.  How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

 

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

 

 

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration.  This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

 

 

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE.  To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

 

No change as of October Day 6, 2004:  North Spin Axis appears to moving fairly normally.  It is currently tightening up rapidly as it heads into its minima phase which will begin in 2006.

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

 

NOTE AS OF OCT. 6, 2004:  Calls on these urls were denied access this day at 1:00 pm AZ time.

 

 

 

 

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth.  No real change during the past year:  a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

 

Currently, there is little of note.  Despite many claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical analysis of many different regions of the Earth.

 

 

 

 

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs  (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

 

 

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates).  For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar.  The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.  

 

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s  (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of  hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows.  Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way.  http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

 

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data  - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html


Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets.  Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake.  You can set any date and time.  You should generally ask the form to give you the “equal orbits” view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

 

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2004

 

                                             Distance

Perigee         22-Sep 21:13    369599 km        F-5d15h

Full               28-Sep 13:09               

Apogee         5-Oct    22:11    404326 km        F+7d 9h

New              14-Oct  2:48                 

Perigee         18-Oct  0:04      367757 km        N+3d21h

Full               28-Oct  3:08                 

Apogee         2-Nov    18:10    404998 km        F+5d15h

New              12-Nov  14:27               

Perigee         14-Nov  13:55    362312 km        N+1d23h

Full               26-Nov  20:08               

Apogee         30-Nov  11:26    405951 km        F+3d15h

Perigee         12-Dec 21:31    357985 km        N+  20h

New              12-Dec 1:29                 

Full               26-Dec 15:07               

Apogee         27-Dec 19:16    406487 km        F+1d 4h

 

For 2005, see the August 25 EC Update

 

TODAY’S MOON

 

We are still in Lunation #1011 and now only eight days until the next New Moon of October 14 at 02:47 UTC.  As of October Day 6, the Moon this day is now high in its North Node (North of the Equator 22 days past the New Moon and about 1 day past the last Apogee.  It is now approximately 405035 KM from the Earth. It is 46% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase). 

 

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

 

The Next Perigee is October 18. 

 

October 12 to October 20:  The next important syzygy period will be the New Moon Near Perigee which runs from October 14 – October 18.  Add two days to either side, we have an eight day period of higher seismic activity than normal…

 

A NEW MOON SYZYGY CLOSE TO PERIGEE:  We enter the next seismic window about October 12 and we will leave it once again about October 20.  Seismic activity should be at low levels THIS WEEK and then slowly increase to bob up again for the New Moon Syzygy.

 

The two strongest seismic syzygies remaining for 2004 will be the New Moon of November 12 (Perigee within less than two days) and December 12 (Perigee within 20 hours).

 

For describing the peak danger periods for the most damaging earthquakes. these Perigee syzygies I will define arbitrarily as

 

November 10 – November 16

 

December 10 – December 15

 

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision.  For details see the Syzygy website  

 

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).   (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.)  For details see the Syzygy website.

 

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

 

 

We have just left the Triple Whammy Alignments for September 28 through October 3.  This group of alignments involved Mercury aligning with Mar and Jupiter as all three line up in a very close alignment. 

 

This alignment failed to produce any significant activity in the Sun.

SO FAR AS OF THIS DATE, NO SHOW AND THE ODDS NOW ARE VERY SMALL THAT WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SOLAR ACTIIVTY. 

 

CLEARLY SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS CLOSE TO MINIMA.

 

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2004 – JUST LEFT

 

The Triple Whammy September Surprise September 28, 2004 - October 1, 2004

 

Mercury | Mars | Jupiter in a triple alignment

***September 28, 2004

***Mars is in near alignment with Jupiter as Mercury catches up to form a nearly a straight alignment with Mercury, within 5 degrees, with all other planets widely dispersed
***October 1, 2004

***Mercury | Mars | Jupiter perfected

 

 

SPECTACULARLY BAD CALL: Spots peak about the Fall Equinox and Weather turns into chaos by about October 1, followed by extreme Fall flooding by the middle of October in the usual places.

 

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR THE NEXT 10 MONTHS

 

For the next three months, there are NO significant alignments.  Solar Activity would wane down into MINIMA.  Weather and climate patterns should become more regular and much more modest in their dynamics.

 

For late December through to June 2005,  four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

 

The Aphelion Six Way Cluster Bomb

 

At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period.  Expect an INTENSELY STORMY WINTER.

December 30, 2004  Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005  Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005  Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

 

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

 

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts.  The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

 

March 14, 2005  Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005  Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

 

Summer Ping Pong

 

June 7, 2005  Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune.  The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PLANET WATCHING  

For background and the current information on observable planets.

 

NASA'S DATA ON NEAR EARTH ASTEROIDS: "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

 

On 29 Sep 2004 there were 633 known Potentially Hazardous Asteroids. For October 2004, there will be no Earth-asteroid encounters. 

 

 

 

 

 

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.  

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

 

The Sunspot Count on October 5 was 40 on a week- long plateau, which stood at 27 seven days ago.  Solar Flux was 91, the same as September 28.

 

BAD CALL FROM LAST MONTH: “MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT:  A new peak should begin to form immediately for the month-end Triple Whammy planetary alignments involving Mercury, Mars, and Jupiter.”

 

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March 2004  was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9  April’s count was radically lower at 39.3.  The May 2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April.  June 2004 was higher still with an average count of 43.2. and July took as even higher to an average count of 51.  August’s count dropped the average to 40, which returns us to the point on the general curve which we reached during April 2004.

The law of averages finally caught with the Sun during September.  For the first time all year, sunspot activity fell below the 32.8 predicted average monthly count and was only 27.7. 

More and more, now and for the next half dozen years, the Sun will influence Earth’s atmosphere and weather less and less.  Global Warming and El Nino type of phenomena will be more and more influential compared to the solar input.  The geo-data we gather during the next three years about weather, climate, the Arctic, Antarctic, Drought Regions, etc. will be extremely valuable in telling us what the true long-term geo-trends really are.

 

 

 

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated.  (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into).  Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

 

The Solar Wind was quite modest at 313.9 km/s this hour while pushing a somewhat thick density of 2.9 protons/cm3”.   

 

NO CHANGE FROM THE PAST TEN DAYS:  In general not much activity today nor is much foreseen through the next 48 hours.

 

Fluxgate Magnetometer:  The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) has been near flat-line with only two very minor disturbances shown for the past 36 hours. (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

 

NASA AURORA WATCH:  AURORA SEASON - it's now aurora season. Scientists don't completely understand why, but there are more geomagnetic storms and auroras around the autumnal equinox than any other time of the year.” ---- “ No solar flares? No problem. Despite the lack of solar activity this week, geomagnetic storms are brewing over Alaska, Canada and Scandinavia…Fitful geomagnetic activity, night after night, is a sign of northern autumn--a.k.a. aurora season. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras in the nights ahead, especially on Oct. 7th when a solar wind stream might buffet Earth's magnetic field.”

 

 

NASA PREDICTS AS OF OCTOBER DAY 6: “Solar activity is very low and it should remain low for at least the next three days. Unless something unexpected happens, bright auroras are unlikely this week. There are no big coronal holes on the Earth-facing side of the sun.” During the next 24/48 hours, probability for an M-class solar flare is at 1% and for an X-class solar flare is at 5%, with a generally 5% - 20% probability for minor to severe geomagnetic disturbances during the next 24/48 hours, depending upon latitude (higher the latitude, higher the probability). THESE ARE REALLY NO PREDICTIONS AT ALL, THE PROBABILITY FIGURES ARE BOGUS, THEY ARE REALLY JUST MAKING “SLOPPYCASTS” LIKE I DO. THEY ARE REALLY SAYING THAT NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING NOR CAN THEY FORESEE MUCH OF ANYTHING AT THE MOMENT

 

Jan Alvestad reports:  “The geomagnetic field was quiet on October 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 321 and 372 km/sec.  Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 90.8. The planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.3)...At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A single C class event was recorded during the day...A region at the southeast limb continued to produce small flares...October 3-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.  Coronal holes...A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH117) was in a geoeffective position on October 3-4.”

 

Jan Alvestad predicts:  “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on October 6-7 due to effects from coronal hole CH117. Quiet to unsettled is likely on October 8-9.“  Alvestad also predicts a 60%-100%% probability of coronal holes, a 0% probability of CME’s, and a 0% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

 

 

 

 

 

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark.  Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

 

 

SSSHHHH….don’t look now, but Hurricane season has virtually collapsed…right along with peak sunspot counts....WHAT A PERFECT CORRELATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

The planets did not correlate.  But the weather sure has.

 

Accuweather reports as of today that:  There are no named storms in the Atlantic basin or eastern Pacific. Tropical Storm Ma-On is centered about 430 miles southeast of Okinawa, Japan.”

 

BAD CALL FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS:  “The TRIPLE WHAMMY alignment on September 28 – October 1 between Mercury | Mars | Jupiter should bring another high spike in the Sunspot Count above 100. The peak may form up anytime beginning September 30 through to October 5.  This will bring in very wet Fall storms through about October 12 – 19.  Flooding should swamp flood-prone areas about October 15 through 25.”

 

NEW CALL:  NORMAL WEATHER WITHIN NORMAL RANGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  NO MORE HURRICANES THIS YEAR OR ONLY LOW INTENSITY HURRICANES.  There is no reason to suspect an increase in Sunspot activity to energize the Earth’s atmosphere and weather.  The Sun is declining now gracefully towards its MINIMA in its 11 year cycle and there are no new planetary alignments which will form up during the next few weeks to provoke the Sun into a new round of electromagnetic storms.

 

Whewww!

 

BUT FOR THE U.S. WEST COAST, ALASKA, AND JAPAN

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED – OF MAJOR INTEREST:  as reported in prior weeks, a huge spot of warm water, considerably above average range, concentrated in a huge zone North of the Hawaiian Islands.  The previous zone between Hawaii and the California coast has virtually disappeared. This must be having a major impact on all marine and West Coast weather patterns.

This is not your normal pattern at all and it will create some El Nino characteristics in the Fall Weather for the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Coast of North America.

 

As of this week, this patch of warm water has shifted away from North America and towards Japan.

 

It still should be highly productive of wet warm marine air seeking to flow into North America along the more northerly latitudes.

 

MOST ESPECIALLY, IT SHOULD DISTORT THE JET STREAM PATTERN, GIVING IT A MORE EXTREME KINK AS IT WORKS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.

 

By increasing and altering the pattern of the  flow of wet marine air into North America, this patch of warm water (up to about eight degrees higher than normal in its center) will effect the weather of North America through the Mid-West and even into New England and Eastern Canada.  If it persists into December, we should see exceptionally heavy snowfalls in all mountain areas.

 

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

All conditions muting out slowly but there is a major anomaly on the U.S. West Coast, perhaps due to the huge patch of warm water (around 8-12 degrees F. above normal) near the Gulf of Alaska due North of Hawaii.  THIS CONDITION HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS JAPAN and thus the influence may be waning.

 

Other than on the North American West Coast, which is probably more unstable than normal, the weather should continue to mute out during the next several days – even as Indian Summer conditions.

 

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR FALL SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

Normalizing out…sunspots not active….return to your traditional local weathercasting.

 

KEEP WATCHING FOR THIS PATTERN:  Global Warming could easily intensify the seasons, making a short bitterly cold Winter, longer intermediate stormy Spring and Fall seasons, and shorter but very hot and dry summers. Don’t we already see this pattern at work in the Northern Hemisphere?

 

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This “sloppycast” is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

A normal Fall…the heat is falling off gradually but it is as dry as can be, which is normal for October.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:  For a large part of the elevations below 4000 feet in the Southwest,  the general drought in the Western U.S. is still holding sway. Only the Winter of 2005 remains a hope at this point.  At this point, everyone in the Southwest should begin to pray in earnest for a HUGE El Nino effect.  During the last El Nino, the Southwest received substantial water. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
The watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; Click here for the NOAA window on the Pacific Ocean Temperatures:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

 

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY – THE CLASSIC EL NINO – We do not at this point know whether an El Nino is in the offing for 2005.  There are no specific signs of it along the Equator in the Pacific.  Purely in accordance with the X Wave correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model,  AN EL NINO IS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT IN 2005.  But, the El Nino is not like an astrophysical cycle.  There are some “missing” El Nino’s in the record of the 20th century and we may have a missing one.  HOWEVER, WE CAN’T BE CERTAIN UNTIL ABOUT APRIL OF 2005, which is about the latest month in which the syndrome has formed up during previous El Nino’s.

 

ONE LAST NOTE ABOUT EL NINO PATTERN:  A stable band of slightly warmer than normal surface water has formed up along the Pacific Equator across a thousand miles or more of the mid-ocean during September.  This could become the core of a warming band which generates the El Nino of 2005.

 

THIS CONDITION INCREASED LAST WEEK – MORE SEA SURFACE WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.

 

ADDITIONAL NOTE:  The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS.   Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year.  So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

 

 

 

KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC,  ANTARCTIC, and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories of the climate shift.

 

 

GLOBAL WARMING

It is becoming obvious that we have a long term real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the latitudes.  This climate shift is creating a growing environmental disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the Pacific Southwest. For the latest short review, see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 26, 2004 and the Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 18, 2004

 

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED –

 

It is apparent from dozens and hundreds of reports from around the world that “global warming” is accelerating climate shifts and ecological changes around the world.  These changes are so varied in such great quantity, it is difficult to summarize the shifts which are going on but it is impossible to ignore them.

 

Here is most likely one of the effects of the current round of GLOBAL WARMING:  the four huge, record-breaking hurricanes which slammed into Florida this fall.

 

As we saw, THE INTENSITY OF THESE HURRICANES WERE DEFINITILY MODULATED BY THE SUNSPOT COUNTS.  BUT THEIR HUGE SIZE MOST LIKELY WAS A PRODUCT OF A WARMER EARTH.

 

The Global Warming connection we are still winging, since the phenomenon is all new, at least for recorded science.  But what else could it be – THIS RECORD BREAKING HURRICANE SEASON?  All weather is now more extreme consistently, right along with the obvious signs of a clear year to year TREND LINE of planet-scale warming in the Arctic.

 

LOOK FOR THE “HEADLINES ON EARTH NEWS”  WHICH I OCCASSIONALLY SEND.  THERE IS SO MUCH HAPPENING ON THIS FRONT IT IS DIFFICULT TO EASILY SUMMARIZE IT.

 

For latest comments on Global Warming,

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 25, 2004

 

For backgrounder information about Global Warming and how to look for it and correlate it to the real causes (solar influx and tectonic heat rifts in the bottoms of the oceans), see

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 14, 2004

 

 

 

 

 

IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY & MASS BEHAVIOR

 

 

The mental and emotional reaction bubbles have indeed formed up and have most likely already crystallized. 

 

In the U.S. this means an electorate which is now shifting marginally towards the Democrats.

 

Not much more shift is possible. 

 

But this has no relevance to the polls. Most of the polls are BAAAAD.  The pollsters do not understand how the sand is shifting beneath the establishment’s feet.  Accordingly, they do not ask the right questions of the right kind of folks and thus do not get an accurate picture.  It is that simple.

 

There is a significantly large momentum of new voter registrations and likely voting.  The numbers of people attempting to vote (and being denied the ballot) will break all records.  NONE OF THE POLLS MEASURE THIS DYNAMIC.  As well, the Army will be voting absentee in record numbers and all indications show that these will be largely Kerry votes.  If you will recall, it was the absentee Florida votes from the military which shoved the elections towards Bush.

 

The voting this Fall will likely be record-breaking.  Such voting has always previously favored Democrats and third parties.

 

THIS IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE CLEAR AND THIS CLARITY WILL PRODUCE INTENSE STRESS AND INSTABILITY IN AMERICAN POLITICS.  REPUBLICANS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE DESPERATE AND DARING IN THEIR VISCIOUS SORCERIES.  MEANWHILE A GREAT MANY OF THE ELECTORATE IS WIDELY EXPECTING MAJOR ELECTION IRREGULARITIES.  THERE WILL BE A VERY HIGH TENDENCY TO SEE “FRAUD” EVERYWHERE, EVEN IN THE NORMAL “SLOPPINESS” OF SOME AREAS.  THROUGHOUT THE INTERNET, A “HIT THE STREETS” MANTRA IS PASSING AROUND AS THE “SOLUTION”.

 

This is likely to grow larger in volume unless the Democrats win with a decisive edge which cannot be cheated away. Can you imagine the elections tied up in the courts with everybody suing everybody while millions of people hit the streets?  Maybe that’s what the Americans need to come to the truth.  This could of course make the election results as inscrutable as the last round, and for even longer. 

 

In the Middle East, we can see with clarity that all military action is being expressed with efficient overwhelming violence.  Confusion and the hunt for appropriate action has ended.  Emotionality has been put aside on the military front, machine-like operations have commenced.   The collateral violence is quite high, the reaction pattern in Palestine and Iraq will further destroy the ability of both Jews and Americans to find any accommodation in the world for their positions. 

 

If this continues, the multiplication of the killing fields will become exponential.  The reaction is no longer emotional, the reaction is hardcore mental, a final, decisive generational shift of attitude of the Arab and Muslim world against U.S. involvement in the Middle East.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED:

 

After October 5, conditions should settle out and crystallize slowly through October and November and December.  There are no planetary alignments until December 30.  Whatever crystallizes out during October is likely to remain a constant until the alignments of January 5, 2005.  Given world conditions, the crystallization between humans is likely to be highly polarized and highly charged with emotional energy.

 

WATCH THIS, IS THIS TRUE?:  It is likely then, that whatever “surprises” and sudden changes may be coming our way are likely to right around the first week in October 2004 and the events of that period will tend to dominate the remainder of the year.

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.  Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above.  Unfortunately there are many lags in reporting of information about quakes, thus neither the numbers of quakes nor the actual quakes discussed may be complete and accurate.  Real time analysis of quake patterns is merely AN APPROXIMATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION.  FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS, Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do.  See Syzygy.com

Seismic activity has been low in magnitude and frequency, as is typical for a non-syzygy period, with the great exception of a large number of 2.5 to 3.9 quakes related to St. Helens for some three days prior to its sudden eruption of October 1.

 

AS CORRECTLY AND DECISVELY PREDICTED IN THIS NEWSLETTER LAST WEDNESDAY!!!!!!!

 

I am happy to have called that one right, especially after the debacle of the non-appearing sunspot peak for this past week.

 

But I am nonplussed by the database entries for World quakes this past seven days.  Either many geophysicists are screening out most quake activity related to other volcanic eruptions, but allowing St. Helens into the world database, OR, the eruption at St. Helens was accompanied by a large number of modest quakes in the range of 3.0 which are generally NOT TYPICAL of other eruptions.

 

I don’t think the latter is true.  BUT I AM NOT SURE WHICH IS WHICH HERE AND THIS REQUIRES A THOROUGH EXAMINATION.  Groan…as if I have the time…

 

Most of the world’s seismic energy about 3.0, other than at St. Helens, was expressed in the South Pacific region of the Fiji Islands, with New Zealand and the leading edge of the Carib Plate as understudies. ONLY ONE shape-shifter quake struck in the Great Rift, a 5.5 on the Antarctica/Pacific Ridge halfway between Latin America and Australia.

 

The largest quake of the week was a magnitude 5.9 quake Southeast of the Loyalty Islands in the Fiji Island Region on Friday, October 1.

 

COSA NOSTRA DAMUS WATCH FOR SOUTH CAL.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: according to the Cosa Nostra Damus Prophecy, a major destructive quake could now strike at any time in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Hollywood, the Van Nuys Valley region, Bakersfield, and anywhere along the escarpment of the San Bernardino Mountains. This will be a follow up to the 4.9 quake which was felt in Coos Bay Oregon during July 2004.  If a quake occurs near Santa Barbara, warnings will need to be given to Mexico City about the possibility of a major explosive event in Popo.

 

SLOW EARTH MOVEMENT WATCH

 

No reports to add this week

 

SHAPE-SHIFTERS WATCH

The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around the world increases. (Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 3.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are 4.5 plus in magnitude.)  For additional information on Plate Tectonics and charts of the Great Rift of the Earth, go to Plate Tectonics Map

 

VERY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE CORRECTION ON SHAPE-SHIFTERS, COURTESY OF PAM WISEMAN. The USGS quake database sometimes lags reality by as much as a week or so and Pam noticed the sudden appearance of a lot of Mid-Atlantic Ridge quakes which were many days late. Approximately two weeks ago (week of September 16-22), preceding much of the significant swarms in North America, rupture in the San Andreas Fault, and the eruption of St. Helens, we had 13 shape-shifter quakes in the Reykjanes Ridge of the Mid Atlantic Ridge, which is in the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge South of Iceland, mostly ranging in size between 4.5 and 5.5.

 

THIS IS A PROFOUNDLY IMPORTANT DATUM AS IT VERY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE SENSE OF CORRELATION WE HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING BETWEEN QUAKES OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND QUAKES IN THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY CLOSE CONNECTION, A MAJOR QUAKE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC IS FOLLOWED BY A NEARLY IMMEDIATE (from an hour to a few days) OUTBREAK OF INCREASED SEISMIC ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

 

The USGS World Chart for the past seven days totaled up only ONE shape-shifter quake in the Great Rift of the ocean bottoms.

 

Magnitude 5.5 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

Sunday, October 03, 2004 at 18:34:16 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_pdkn.htmlU.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        56.57S 141.93W

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

Reference     3525 km (2190 miles) SE of WELLINGTON, New Zealand

 

 

NORTH AMERICAN WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitudeAny numbers used in this section may or may not be accurate and may or may not reflect what will eventually appear in scientific databases.

 

Seismic activity in North America overall for quakes in the range of 1.0 and over was generally down this last week for the past seven days.

 

For the second week running, except for the sudden awakening of St. Helens, the greatest activity was tightly clustered near Paso Robles and Parkfield in Central Coastal California along the San Andreas Fault.  Though well below the prior week, the past seven days recorded nearly another 500 quakes of varying size, mostly below 2.0 to produce a highly unusual number of quakes along the San Andreas and subsidiary faults.

 

Another tight cluster of microquakes struck due East of Mono Lake nearly dead on the Nevada border.  This swarm continued the swarm which appeared during the prior two weeks, but the rate was sharply down once again.  Since Mono Lake is a large volcanic landform to the North of the Long Valley Cauldera, it is most certain that this continuing swarm of small quakes, typically in the range of 1.0 to 2.0, was produced by a breaking of dikes and the flow of magma some four to five miles below the surface. 

 

There were probably some 1102 quakes in U.S./Alaska as a whole, down from  the prior week.

 

No report this week on the PNW – the geophysicists maps and databases do not square up and there have been so many microquakes at St. Helens that everything is screwy on the numbers dished up by the servers.

 

Other than St. Helens, a couple of dozen small microtremors struck in the PNW, mainly in Washington State along the Cascades;  there appears to have been one small quake at Hood and one at Rainier.

 

I BELIEVE THAT GEOPHYSICISTS ARE SCREENING OUT RAINIER ACTIVITY.  This activity consists of very small microtremors which do not show up on any other equipment. 

 

43 in Utah, up from 14 last week.

 

973 in California and Nevada, down from 1077 last week, widely scattered in California and Nevada; these were widely scattered except for the 484 more or less centered around the Parkfield/Paso Robles area (down from the 600 of the previous week)

 

The Long Lake Cauldera saw 16 quakes, down from 28 last week. 

 

The Mono Lake Volcano Field had 48 quakes, down substantially from the 146 quakes for the prior week, and the 500+ microquakes for the week before that.

 

7 on the Big Island of Hawaii,  down from 11 during the prior week, but these do not include the microquakes swarming below Mauna Loa.

 

 

YELLOWSTONE WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude.  For Yellowstone Quake Chart, CLICK HERE.

 

Activity this past seven days remained low at just 6 widely scattered microquakes in Yellowstone, down from 1 quake during the prior week.

 

WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES

 

The greatest number of large quakes during the past seven days were in the South Pacific in the region of the Fiji Islands.  Here is the biggest of the batch:

 

Magnitude 5.9 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS

Friday, October 01, 2004 at 19:46:05 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_pbjq.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        22.45S 173.21E

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS

Reference     120 km (75 miles) E of Ile Hunter, Loyalty Isl., New Caledonia

160 km (100 miles) WSW of Ceva-i-Ra, Fiji

695 km (435 miles) E of NOUMEA, New Caledonia

1605 km (1000 miles) N of Auckland, New Zealand

 

 

 

 

 

 

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre.  Or see “Breaking Volcano Eruption News”.

 

 

DESPITE THE EL POPO-LIKE EMISSIONS OF ST. HELENS THIS PAST WEEK, OBSERVABLE WORLD VOLCANIC ACTIVITY IS  NOW SLIGHTLY DOWN AS OF THIS WEEK.

 

There are not very many new reports of activity since October 1, except for the huge numbers of U.S. Press reports about St. Helens.

 

The focus on St. Helens is understandable but NOT REALLY very appropriate.  It was forecast at the beginning of the year to erupt by the Southwest Volcano Institute with a 76% confidence.  The current emissions can easily continue on for the next ten years in a fashion similar to the huffing and puffing of Popo and Colima or the oozing of Etna and Kilauea. 

 

PREDICTION:  The press will quickly tire of St. Helens and abandon their arduous coverage.  St. Helens more probable than not will have sudden flare-offs and a few major ash plumes during the next year, but no major, explosive eruption which comes even close to its 1980 eruption.  It will continue to sporadically emit steam and ash like Colima and Popo for the next few years.  How much and how vigorously remains unpredictable.  More probable than not during the next 90 days, perhaps with some fits and starts related to Lunar Motion. Most probable is

 

(a) the next New Moon – Perigee syzygy Mid-October, or

(b) the New Moon Perigee syzygy of November or December.

 

Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of October Day 6 2004:

 

6 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment) (down one from last week)

 

48 on alert list (pre-cursors suggesting that activity may begin) (one less than last week)

 

23 on active list (seismic, gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (same as last week)

 

Popo gave a 19 puff day yesterday.  Centrapred reports for October Day 6 (17:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of Popocatepetl volcano, recorded only 19 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and gas emissions. Today two volcanotectonic earthquakes were located. One at 4.5 km depth, and 7.5 km to the SE from the crater, and the second one, located at 7 km depth and 8 km to the SE from the crater. .The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. Due to dense clouds no fumarolic activity could be distinguished…Due to the low levels of activity shown in the past days, the scenarios consisting of explosions and ash emission are less probable."

 

MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK

from Volcano Breaking News by Volcanologist John Seach

Volcano Travel:  john@volcanolive.com

Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT + 10 hr)

Mt St Helens Volcano (USA)
46.20 N, 122.18 W, summit elevation 2549 m, stratovolcano
Thursday 7th October 2004
The alert level has been reduced to 2, after a decrease in earthquake activity at Mt St Helens volcano. Following October 5 steam-and-ash eruption, seismicity dropped to a low level and has remained low. Low-level tremor observed following the eruption is also gradually declining. Lack of earthquake and rockfall signals suggest that deformation of the uplift area on the south side of the 1980-86 lava dome has slowed. The vigorous unrest of the past few days has lessened and that the probability of an imminent eruption that would endanger life and property is significantly less than at any time since Saturday, October 2. Episodic changes in level of unrest over periods of days to weeks, or even months, are possible. This does not mean the current episode of unrest is over, and fluctuations in the level of unrest may continue during coming days and months. There may be little time to raise the Alert Level before a hazardous event occurs.
More on Mt St Helens volcano...
Volcanoes of USA...

Mt Bromo Volcano (Indonesia)
7.94 S, 112.95 E, summit elevation  2329 m, stratovolcanoes
Wednesday 6th October 2004
Two climbers were found dead on Monday night at Mount Bromo volcano in Indonesia. A group of three people were climbing the volcano on Saturday when they fell into a 100-meter-deep ravine. One climber's life was saved when his clothes caught on a tree. They had approached it via Pananjakan Slope and were intending on celebrating Kasada, an annual ritual for native Tengger people, on the mountain. The three were among thousands of people who were climbing to the crater of Mount Bromo to observe the Kasada ceremony. A few months ago, when Mount Bromo erupted killing two people a warning had been issued urging people not to climb Mount Bromo
More on Mt Bromo volcano...
Volcanoes of Indonesia...

Rinjani Volcano (Indonesia)
8.42 S, 116.47 E, summit elevation 3726 m, stratovolcano
Wednesday 6th October 2004
Hikers have been banned from climbing Mount Rinjani after the volcano after renewed volcanic activity. The volcano, a popular destination for mountain climbers from all over the world, began rumbling last week. Despite the warning for the hikers, it was not necessary to evacuate villagers living near the volcano.
More on Rinjani volcano...
Volcanoes of Indonesia...

Colima Volcano (Mexico)
19.514 N,103.62 W, summit elevation 3850 m, Stratovolcano
Sunday 3rd October 2004
Colima volcano erupted on Friday. A wide stream of lava had been clearly visible at night flowing down the volcano. A column of ash was ejected several miles into the air. Explosions have continued since activity started with small blasts on Wednesday. The activity has been caused by pressure building under a dome that covers Colima's crater. Smoke and gas are now emitting from a crack in the dome. It is hoped the lava flows continue, relieving pressure inside the volcano.
More on Colima volcano...

Mt Spurr Volcano (Alaska)
61.30 N, 152.25 W, summit elevation 3374 m, stratovolcano
Sunday 3rd October 2004
Elevated levels of seismicity continue to be recorded at Mt. Spurr volcano in Alaska. This week, about 90 earthquakes were located within 30 km of the summit, with an average of approximately 13 events per day.
More on Mt Spurr volcano...

Rinjani Volcano (Indonesia)
8.42 S, 116.47 E, summit elevation 3726 m, stratovolcano
Friday 1st October 2004
Rinjani volcano erupted today at 05:30 am. Grey-white eruption column reached between 400-600m above the crater. Rinjani is Indonesia's second highest volcano, and last erupted in 1994.
More on Rinjani volcano...
Volcanoes of Indonesia...

 

 

 

Standing Assessment:  Likely, it is fair to conclude that the not-so-invisible Black Arts Nation, from HAARP to the Navy, to the Bush/Ashcroft prisons in Iraq/Afghanistan and Cuba, not to mention many other technologies, areas, and programs, are far out of ethical, moral, constitutional, and treaty control, as has been widely feared. 

 

 

BLACK ARTS NATION

 

STAY TUNED.  We are just on the front edge of “the outing”….

 

 

What is truly bazaar about mass opinion at this current time in the U.S. is its near complete inversion.  Both Kerry and Bush are seen by a substantial portion of the public, perhaps even a majority of the public, as VERY NEARLY THE OPPOSITE OF WHO THEY REALLY ARE.  This greatly benefits Bush, it greatly diminishes Kerry. What is even more bazaar is the strength and persistence of the emotional and mental blinders which are maintaining the illusions which create the inversion. No matter what is presented now on TV, NOTHING SEEMS TO DENT THE ILLUSION.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ECONOMY WATCH 

 

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK

The U.S. economy will grow for at least a few more months. There are still no signs of a general recovery, there have been many growing signs of a recession, and there is clear evidence of a stagflation dynamic setting (rising prices with no growth).  But, the fickle finger of fate has intervened and is creating sudden shifts which will drive sudden expansion and huge demand and production increases in certain sectors, specifically those related to construction and war.

 

Many of the authorized expenditures of the Bush War Machine for the Iraqi Expedition have yet to be spent.  Money which should have been spent in the range of tens of billions has yet to be spent.  NOW WITH THE INCREASING LOSS OF CONTROL IN IRAQ, the U.S. Military and occupation commands are going to have to suddenly shift operations and enormous sums are likely to be spent in the beginning of an expansion of military operations.  This is likely to produce some stimulation of the economy during the months ahead.

 

BUT EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT:  The Quadruple Whammy of Charles, Francis, Ivan, and Jeanne has caused ENORMOUS DAMAGE.  The damage is bad news, of course, for those who lost.  But it is good news for those who build things. There is going to be more demand for new construction in the Southeastern portion of the U.S., something in the range of $30 billion, all financed by Insurance Claims and Government Assurance Programs.

 

This will provide a substantial stimulation of the U.S. economy.  Moribund Money tied up in paper assets will be liquefied to flow through several hands in a sudden spiral of new production and new consumption.  This will tend to soften the stock markets because insurance companies will need to sell off a lot of stock.

 

The demand for construction and repair will be so great that a great many people will have to wait a year or more to rebuild.  People and companies all over the U.S. will flow into the Southeast to meet the demand. Already, national databases for the construction industry are advertising for blue collar people to come to work in six month contracts at up to $35/hour plus per diem, plus health benefits.

 

Ironically, the tax give away to the wealthy did not work very well to expand jobs, but the Hurricanes will…

 

All this of course does little to save the economy from the 25 year depression cycle.  It just gives the current cycle a little more life.  Accordingly, the final decline will come a bit more precipitously when it comes.  It may not come until 2006.

 

FOR THE LASTEST DETAILED DISCUSSION

 

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

 

FOR THE STAND PAT ECONOMIC PREDICTION FOR THIS YEAR,

 

 See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of May 12 2004

 

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES

 

The DJI finished October Day 6 at 10,239.92 UP about $100 from last Wednesday at 10,136.24. 

 

Is this the top of the bubble?

 

AS PREVIOUSLY ANSWERED: I suspect it is very close to it.  If may chop up and down 100 points either way for the next few weeks.  

 

WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY – SO FAR OIL IS STILL RISING RATHER THAN FALLING – WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR DRIVING OIL UP IN PRICE AND ACCELERATING THE DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR. 

 

WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN:  Eventually oil prices should drop and allow the bubble to inflate some more.   The market will get over its “interest rate increase” adjustment in a couple of weeks or less.  So these things will firm up the bubble.

 

EXCEPT THAT THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IS SO INCOMPETENT THAT NO INTERNATIONAL ACTOR KNOWS HOW TO BE RATIONAL AND MAKE REAL DECISIONS.  EVERYTHING IS HEDGED AND HIDDEN.  All news on the war fronts is terrible. Iraq recovery has essentially collapsed. Real war is heating up. The insurgents and terrorists now are just playing hide and seek in Iraq, the more the American Bull rushes them, the less energy it was to remain in the game.  Bush’s support is crumbling and he couldn’t do a deal internationally if his life depended upon it.

 

SO THIS MAY BE IT.  EVERYTHING MAY JUST ONLY GET CRAZIER FROM HERE.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED:  Don’t wait for Christmas Retail Sales…they will be disappointing, depress the stock values, and lead into the final economic collapse.  When the DJI is above 10,000, liquidate anything you have in all such equities anywhere.  The DJI MAY HIT 10,500 AGAIN but DON’T COUNT ON IT.  And if it does, it will be only a signal spike which will break the market for many months, if not many years.

 

FOR THE LAST CURRENT DETAILED DISCUSSIONS SEE:

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

 

EURO WATCH 

 

The dollar closed today at 0.8138 up slightly from 0.8113 per euro a week ago. Hey, that’s in the wrong direction. What is going on?

 

“As oil goes up, the dollar will tend also to go down against the Euro.”

 

OIL IS SHARPLY UP TODAY TO $52. The dollar is bound to lose some Euro value during the next week.

 

REVISION OF PREDICTION ONCE AGAIN:  “The overall erosion is likely to slowly continue through the year.  It may bottom at $0.70 per euro by the end of 2004.”  The international inflation of the dollar, which is being forced by international dynamics, is being made by revaluing the dollar against the barrel of oil and other basic major commodities.  At the moment, and so far this year, there is very little relative movement vis a vis the Euro. 

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Major efforts are being made right now to reduce the price of oil below $40/barrel. Production is being expanded everywhere it can be.  Saudi Arabia is trying to deliver the goods at lower prices to maintain Bush in power.

 

So far, the Saudi’s have not been very successful.  The price of oil is high because supply is constrained by weather, politics, the Tragedy in Iraq, unrest in Nigeria. and a huge demand in Asia.

 

MUST READ:  “The Dollar Panics” in “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, which lays out the dynamics of what is happening

 

 

 

 

 

SURVIVAL WATCH

 

FOOD WATCH

 

For latest info, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of  July 7, 2004

 

JOB WATCH

 

Any aspect of the construction and home products industry is hot.

 

 

 

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, who is now widely described as the biggest corporate swindler of all time, is still scott free. (ONE OF THE WORST ECONOMIC TERRORISTS OF ALL TIME).  But now finally after waiting for two or so years, Lay has been indicted.  Notice the timing, near the end of the first term of the Bush Administration. At this time I will hazard the guess that he will be pardoned by Bush during the final days of his administration, probably December of this year.  ANOTHER NEARLY EQUAL SIGN OF THE TIMES:  The lawyers who have been settling the Enron collapse for all parties, are billing the remaining net assets of Enron for approximately $1 billion for their services.  This is a new heavenly-ordained definition for the term Chutzpah.  I CALL IT CLASS ECONOMIC TERRORISM.

 

POLITICAL WATCH

For general overview on the Tragedy in Iraq and the Bureau-Political Civil War in Washington DC, I highly recommend Tom Dispatch.

 

 

THE WORLD AWAITS THE DEPARTURE OF THE BUSH REGIME. 

For general background:  see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 7 2004

 

HALF BAD CALL FROM LAST WEEK:  One would wish that the Presidential Debates, beginning with the debate on November 30 would prove helpful in revealing who both men really are. But the debates are so “contrived” in every aspect of their organization and conduct, they have rightfully drawn the ridicule of much of the press.  The event will be largely another “illusion”, a Kenny Boy cut-out paper doll version of make-believe reality.

 

This was only half true.

 

The Vice-Presidential Debate did fall into the well of  illusions.  Old Unmovable Stonewall Cheney successfully obfuscated whatever he has decided is not to his liking. He managed to combine the inertia of the infinitely large with enough energy to spew out more bushels of lies and distortions than I have ever heard cascade out of one mouth in his 45 minutes on stage.  Edwards eagerly made his points, generally quite well, but despite his exposures of a few lies and distortions, he could not possibly handle the volume and in the end it was as if the two were on different planets.  Depending upon your angle, one or both won or one or both lost, and it depends upon what you yourself brought to the listening of these two.

 

But the Presidential Debate clearly gave a decisive edge to reality and Kerry.  The Prozac King found himself several times staring like a deer in the headlights, his intellect and arguments exposed in all their stark barren stupidity. At least twice he was left to sputter while searching desperately for his stock of favorite one-liners which had no relationship to much of anything which was going on in the room, or in Iraq, or anywhere.  What you saw is what is really there, in the most generic essence.

 

Even some of the thicker among the electorate began to see that reality is missing a brick or two in the person of George W. Bush.  Accordingly, a rapid but marginal change in the polls began to set in. With his sputtering and amateurish distortions, Bush killed his Big Mo in the debates and handed the carcass over to the Kerry camp, which is gratefully roasting it..

 

It is doubtful that Bush can re-coop.  The debates allow for side by side comparison between two men, one who thinks on his feet and renders spontaneous action and one who sloganeers with canned quips but who cannot meaningfully connect real thoughts together.  The comparison destroys the illusion of Bush as a leader.  With each of the next two debates, more likely than not Kerry will continue to gain ground from the mutual exposure.

 

Thankfully, Rove does not get it.  He obviously believes he can spin more sorcery but I think time has finally caught up with them and that the more he does fabricate his mantras for deceit, the more he will expose his game. It is true that you can lie to some people all the time. Rove has proven this more remarkably than anyone since the Nazi’s. But for most people, you can’t lie to them all the time, and Rove is now working on proving this venerable truth, much to his coming surprise.

 

BAD CALL FROM LAST WEEK: The odds are that Kerry is too intelligent to get that he will not connect very well with the undecideds, who will not reason, indeed cannot reason very well, through this debate.  I predict very little impact for these debates and I predict that both sides will walk away proclaiming victory.

 

TRUTH:  Bush is far weaker in person than we have been willing to credit him.

 

GOOD CALL FROM LAST WEEK: More or less, Bush will not lose much from these debates, but there is a chance that the in-person comparison between the minds and behaviors of these two candidates in the same space may rebound slightly favorably to Kerry.  Bush’s obfuscation of Kerry will tend to melt and holes will be punched into his swaggering illusion of mastery of all he surveys.

 

FROM LAST WEEK, BUSH DIDN’T CARRY THIS OFF, BUT CHENEY SURE DID: “But the problem for Kerry, which the Democrats still have no effective way yet to solve, is that Bush will lie his ass off making claims which are totally preposterous.  Thus he will still manage to walk away looking confidently like a winner who knows his stuff.  And half the country will continue to follow their fast-talking favorite Western Actor, old Wartime Tex, who at least looks the part for whipping Iraq.”

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:  It is highly likely that the most decisive ammunition against the Imperial Faction is yet to be lobbed….The sense of moral outrage is still building……people are waiting for the right timing……I have this feeling that fireworks will emerge in October. 

 

These were good calls.  They are coming.  Here are some early entries:

 

Bremer. One of the main Generals of the new Imperialism of Upper Class Freedom Uber Alles.  He’s ratting on the Imperial Faction. Not enough troops, he says, the looting created a terrible set-back from which we never recovered, we did it wrong, he admits 

 

Who would have guessed?

 

The CIA’s final report this week:  Saddam Hussein was the only political leader telling the truth….there have been no WMD since 1991 and no programs since 1996.

 

And so, bottom line:

 

All the King’s Men got mugged by a swindling crook named Chalabi, who sold the New World Order Emperor the equivalent of the Brooklyn Bridge.

 

To claim this prize, the Mass Broadcast Media began beating the war drums and the “Good German” Americans goose-stepped to war.  One thousand and counting Americans and 30,000 Iraqis die in vain, and some 8000 soldiers got maimed for life, and only God knows who many tens of thousands of people are getting poisoned for life by the depleted uranium.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: Bush remains in every way an “untouchable” international pariah such as has not been seen since the days of Stalin. The problem is the lying. To touch this tar baby, one risks becoming befouled with the lies from even the barest minimum of association.  WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT IS ANYONE’S GUESS. American politics has never been so unpredictable. Doubtless the Bush Administration and virtually the entire Imperial Faction is or will be caught up in legal issues and press controversies which will pile higher and higher.  To counter the attacks and legal moves against them, the Bush-iters will use every sorcery they can contrive to conceal everything which is not nailed down in plain site in front of the New York Times.  They will even chip away at that late at night.   They will use Saddam Hussein in every way possible to rationalize their existence, deeds, and legitimacy to be re-elected.  Every lie and form of bigotry they have ever used will be retread to denigrate Kerry, Edwards, Nader, and every other candidate for lower office.  The meltdown of U.S. politics into a world-class cesspool manipulated by a sordid class of third rate sorcerers will be nearly complete.

 

BUT PERHAPS THIS IS JUST AN ANNEALING PROCESS, THE TIME OF THE EXPOSIING AND BURNING AWAY OF THE CRAP.  PERHAPS WE ARE NOW FINALLY FIGHTING IN ONE OF THE LAST CHAPTERS IN THE STRUGGLE FOR THE SOUL OF  AMERICA WHICH BEGAN ON THE STREETS OF BERKELEY WITH THE FREE SPEECH MOVEMENT AND THE REALIZATION THAT THE VIETNAM WAR WAS A HIDDEOUS MISTAKE.

 

The only question now is, will enough wake by November 2, or will it take another four years of economic, social, and political devastation in the U.S. to draw up enough people into a higher state of awareness?

 

Many who will the change are now pessimistic. Despite a year of exposing the grave crimes of the Imperial Faction and the incompetence of their President, a near majority of Americans refuse to believe that conditions have become so corrupt.  They insist on drawing their blinders more tightly around their favorite illusions.

 

For a time yet, the truth may remain an orphan in the street.

 

BUT EVEN SO, NOW, IN THE OCTOBER AIR, CONDITIONS SEEM MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR AN AMERICAN REGIME CHANGE.

 

 

 

 

 

A new media now arrives, floating down the river Iway, and with it comes a new consciousness of the world and the lies which have driven so much of the past 50 years….

 

From this, the future will arise as the old world slowly collapses.

 

All else is fluid, in transition. Thank God Almighty!

 

 

THE STRATEGIC SITUATIONFinal Synopsis
For predictions related to the mess in Palestine, the Middle East, and the Bush political era.

 

CONDITIONS IN IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST

ARE IN EXTREME CRISIS

 

The entire world continues to witness the American impasse in Iraq.  American policy and management are now clearly on trajectory to a catastrophic loss.

 

As reported in prior months:  Since May 2004 it has been obvious that the U.S. Military was adrift without a rudder AND MISSING ITS PADDLES whilst attempting a turn-around far up the creek named Iraq. 

 

FOR THE LASTEST SUMMARY BRIEFING ON THE SITUATION AND THE WAY OUT OF IT, GO TO

 

“A Letter To The Generals:  Saving Iraq and Saving The U.S.”

 

FOR A PDF VERSION, CLICK HERE.

 

HERE IS THE MAIN HOPE OUT OF THIS STRATEGIC IMPASSE:

 

AN AUTHENTIC ISLAMIC MORAL AUTHORITY IS ARISING AND IS BEGINNING TO FORGE A COALITION TO UNIFY IRAQ AND BRING CIRCUMSTANCES TO THE POINT WHERE THE AMERICANS CAN BE ASKED TO LEAVE.  QUICKLY. 

 

THE ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE FORGED BY JANUARY.  MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT, THE MULLAHS WILL ARRANGE THE ELECTION OF A GOVERNMENT WHICH ASSERTS ITS SOVEREIGNTY AND ASKS THE U.S. TO LEAVE VIRTUALLY IMMEDIATELY.

 

PASS THE WORD: THIS IS HOW IT WILL END IN IRAQ, NEITHER BY BUSH NOR BY KERRY. 

 

Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at mwman@earthlink.net
Master Website Index is at: http://www.michaelmandeville.com

Author of  several books, including: "Return of the Phoenix" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/phoenix/phoenix.htm
and "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006.htm
_________________________________________________
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