PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Please Note: This Bulletin is conceived as a System. It is still in an early stage of evolution. We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of October 20 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this URL

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_Oct_20_04.htm

EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO.

NOVEMBER: Will be a complete surprise!!! Forget everyone’s projections and fears. The MASS MEDIA is as much in the dark as you are!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

On the geophysical front, FOR THIS AMAZING GLOBAL WARMING YEAR, sunspots are an amazing (and unexpected) 129 as of today and a variety of solar activity has been rising for the past week and is expected to continue for a few more days. ONCE MORE, BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES!!!! WEATHER CONDITIONS NOW WILL HAVE MAJOR SOLAR ENERGIZATION AND THUS STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY WORLDWIDE. Taiwan and Japan will be battered in a few days by a huge cyclone. No El Nino trend is apparent BUT the North Pacific ocean is diverging in temperature and is now beginning to drive El Nino type Pacific storm fronts into North America. World volcanism has declined from last week and several volcanoes are now paralleling St. Helens quite closely with sporadic steam, gas and small ash emissions. Only Kilauea is still oozing lava today. Worldwide seismic activity was down throughout this New Moon – Perigee syzygy and totally busted the syzygy paradigm this time around.

On the geopolitical front, the economy continues to putter along for the moment from the need to rebuild the storm battered Southeast. Stock values have stabilized but dollar values relative to the euro are still falling as oil prices maintain around $55.00 per barrel of oil. This gives everything a little more shaky life for the next few months in the amidst of a lot of uncertainties. This is not necessarily comfortable news, some analysts expect retail gas prices to rise sharply just after the elections. The main good news is evident in the collapse of Bush’s “bubble”. The Presidential debates pricked the balloon and new reports and books, even from former employees, come out each day to add additional daggers. Bush is unlikely now to be able to huff it back up but that has not stopped him from conducting a non-stop tour of the most bald-faced lying and distortions which the country has ever witnessed. The truly bad news, now a continuing saga, is that the crisis in Iraq has reached critical condition. As things stand, the U.S. is losing the struggle in Iraq and helicopter evacuations will probably end this tragedy near the summer of 2005. But also as things stand, a political disaster, as expected by many observers, may befall the U.S. before that moment. The U.S. election system may fail to produce an obvious winner and the conflicts may be sent next January to the House of Representatives for adjudication by an institution which is controlled by a corrupt clique of nominal Republicans.

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Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/

PREVIOUS
WEEKLY

UPDATES

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007. Click here to download

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008: This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since may 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent. If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF OCTOBER 14, 2004:

So far so good. No “October Surprise” has appeared. But, of course, the month is only half over. For maximum reactivity with mass consciousness, any major contrived manipulation will need to occur during the next five days. On all economic fronts, hang tuff. The bubble will hang in there for a little while longer even if it is currently sagging under the high oil prices. They will come down this Winter and the rebuilding boom in the SE section of the country will keep the economy firm. Stocks will go back up with the decline in oil prices and so will the value of the dollar. All long term projection for the collapse in 2006 is still right on target.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF SEPTEMBER 29, 2004:

The main proviso in all things is “The October Surprise”. This is such a strong psychic impression among a great many, I will now be surprised if there is NOT an “October Surprise”. Since the October surprise is widely expected to be highly negative, it most likely will influence all markets negatively. In the main, hold to the course laid out months ago. There will likely be some recovery in the equity markets to rise the DJI closer to 10,500 before it heads South for good sometime next year, probably early. Oil prices are substantially higher than anyone thought and part of the reason is completely logical, oil production is depressed by weather and political disturbances, while Asian demand is soaring at a much more rapid rate than expected. This is softening equity markets in the U.S. and inflating the petro-dollar with rapidly rising international commodity prices. I normally stay away from gold, but it looks good at this time, but only for a quick flip during the next year. But don’t buy unless you “know when to fold ‘em”.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF SEPTEMBER 1, 2004:

All projections are on track. This month and next more probable than not are the last months of the last bubble in this 25 year leg of the long term economic cycle. When equities begin to slide this Fall, they will hunt up and down sporadically as the chaos deepens through 2005. Absolute Bottom will be found in 2006 or in 2007 and a very slow increase (not driven by Bull speculation) will probably begin to manifest in 2008. In the interim period, most of the “Fortune 500” will disappear in their current form and their remnants will reappear as vastly different companies..

HOUSEKEEPING

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time). Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin. To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network.

Begin Synopsis

As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species. As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth. Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it. Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time. Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

DON’T LET UP. KEEP THE RESOLUTE FOCUS.

KEEP FOCUSING ON PEACE, DISENGAGEMENT FROM HOSTILITY, RESOLUTION OF CONFLICT,

WALKING AWAY FROM WARS AND LEADERS WHO CREATE WARS

A great turning towards peace is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity, EVEN AS the merchants of dominance, hate, revenge, and violence appear to crow even more loudly on the world stage or can be found eagerly arranging a major increase in the tempo of bomb explosions to murder and maim even more people. A consciousness is gathering greater focus to dissolve away the entire Bush-Alqaeda continuum of absolutism and militarism and replace its brutalities with profound movement en masse towards peaceful solutions.

Look for it. Greet it. Nourish it with love.

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird. Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls. The old patterns are falling away. Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO. In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them. This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues. How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration. This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE. To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

No change as of October Day 20, 2004: North Spin Axis appears to moving fairly normally. It is currently tightening up rapidly as it heads into its minima phase which will begin in 2006.

The Wobble Track is showing continued tightening of the Chandler’s

Wobble Spiral, as should be, and the track seems to be conforming with a continued acceleration in the rate of drift, but this can be by no means certain until this 7 year cycle is over. In about two years we will be able to locate the minimum spiral of motion and then look for the average 7 year "location" of this past seven years for comparison with previous cycles.

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth. No real change during the past year: a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

Currently, there is little of note. Despite many claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical analysis of many different regions of the Earth.

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates). For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar. The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows. Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way. http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html

Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets. Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake. You can set any date and time. You should generally ask the form to give you the “equal orbits” view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2004

Distance

Apogee 5-Oct 22:11 404326 km F+7d 9h

New 14-Oct 2:48

Perigee 18-Oct 0:04 367757 km N+3d21h

Full 28-Oct 3:08

Apogee 2-Nov 18:10 404998 km F+5d15h

New 12-Nov 14:27

Perigee 14-Nov 13:55 362312 km N+1d23h

Full 26-Nov 20:08

Apogee 30-Nov 11:26 405951 km F+3d15h

Perigee 12-Dec 21:31 357985 km N+ 20h

New 12-Dec 1:29

Full 26-Dec 15:07

Apogee 27-Dec 19:16 406487 km F+1d 4h

For 2005, see the August 25 EC Update

TODAY’S MOON

We are in Lunation #1012 and now 7 days past the New Moon of October 14 at 02:47 UTC and two days the Perigee of October 18. As of October Day 20, the Moon this day is now high in its South Node (South of the Equator). It is now approximately 364,227 KM from the Earth. It is 49% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase).

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

As of today we clearing past the Cot 12-20 New Moon Perigee Syzygy. As predicted, this period was stronger than the preceding New Moon syzygy.

The Next Perigee is November 14, just day days past the New Moon. This Syzygy should be more potent than the one we have just gone through.

The two strongest seismic syzygies remaining for 2004 will be the New Moon of November 12 (Perigee within less than two days) and December 12 (Perigee within 20 hours).

For describing the peak danger periods for the most damaging earthquakes. these Perigee syzygies I will define arbitrarily as

November 10 – November 16 – Similar to the period we have just gone through

December 10 – December 15 – This syzygy should produce more seismic energy release (earthquakes) than during most of the other syzygies of the preceding year.

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision. For details see the Syzygy website

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit). (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.) For details see the Syzygy website.

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH TO DECEMBER 21, 2004

For October and November there are NO significant alignments except possibly for the November 20 alignment of Mercury | Uranus. Since Uranus is so far out, it is not likely to induce a strong em bias in combination with Mercury to pull out much solar activity. Accordingly, solar activity should stay close to MINIMA until very close to December. Weather and climate patterns should become more regular and much more modest in their dynamics.

An alignment of Venus | Jupiter on December 3 should prove productive of a new round of solar flares and sunspots beginning during the last week of November This activity will introduce an even greater flare-up during the first week in December for the Mercury | Earth alignment on December 10

November 20 Mercury | Uranus

December 3 Venus | Jupiter

December 10 Mercury | Earth

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR LATE DECEMBER 2004 – JUNE 2005

For late December through to June 2005, four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

The Aphelion Six Way Cluster Bomb

At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period. Expect an INTENSELY STORMY WINTER.

December 30, 2004 Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005 Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005 Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts. The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

March 14, 2005 Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005 Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

Summer Ping Pong

June 7, 2005 Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune. The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs.

PLANET WATCHING

For background and the current information on observable planets.

NASA'S DATA ON NEAR EARTH ASTEROIDS: "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

On 20 Oct 2004 there were 639 known Potentially

Hazardous Asteroids. For October 2004, there will be no Earth-asteroid encounters.

NASA REPORTS: “ LUNAR ECLIPSE: Mark your calendar! On Wednesday, Oct. 27th, sky watchers in the Americas can see a lovely-red total eclipse of the moon.” [full story] “

NASA REPORTS: MAGICAL MORNING: On Thursday morning, Oct. 21st, pieces of Halley's Comet will spray out of the constellation Orion. Meteors will fly past Venus and Saturn, Sirius, Castor and Pollux. Don't miss the show! [full story] Go outside before sunrise, around 5:30 a.m. is best, and look east. The brightest object in that direction is the planet Venus. It looks like a star going supernova. Above Venus lies Saturn, and below, near the horizon, is Jupiter. Every 10 minutes or so you'll see a meteor streak among these planets. The meteors are pieces of Halley's Comet. "Every year around this time Earth glides through a cloud of dusty debris from Halley's Comet," explains Bill Cooke of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "Bits of dust, most no larger than grains of sand, disintegrate in Earth's atmosphere and become shooting stars." "It's not an intense shower," he says, "but it is a pretty one." Astronomers call it the "Orionid meteor shower," because the meteors appear to stream out of a point (called "the radiant") in the constellation Orion. The radiant is near Orion's left shoulder. But don't stare at that spot, advises Cooke. Meteors near the radiant seem short and stubby, a result of foreshortening. Instead, look toward any dark region of the sky about 90 degrees away. The vicinity of Venus or Jupiter is good. You'll see just as many Orionids there, but they will seem longer and more dramatic.”

NASA REPORTS: “CRESCENT SUNSET: In Hawaii yesterday, just before sunset, the moon glided in front of the sun producing a partial solar eclipse. On the beach at Wailea, Maui, Rob Ratkowski took this picture of the sun with a strange bite taken out of it.”

NASA REPORTS: “LUNAR ECLIPSE: Mark your calendar: On Oct. 27th and 28th, sky watchers around the world can see a total eclipse of the moon. The event begins next Wednesday at 9:14 p.m. EDT. [full story] “

live webcasts: from the Canary Islands; from Iran; from Switzerland; from Mexico;

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

The Sunspot Count on October 20 rose to 129, up much higher than expected from the 0 count on October 11, while the Solar Flux Index continued to rise from the mid ‘80’s on October 11 up to 111.

What is it about the 11’s?

The peak may not have fully formed and may continue climbing tomorrow, though it most likely will not stay high for more than a day or so.

Date Flux Sunspots Area

2004 10 11 87 0 0

2004 10 12 88 14 10

2004 10 13 87 41 190

2004 10 14 91 38 265

2004 10 15 89 26 240

2004 10 16 92 43 220

2004 10 17 92 51 210

2004 10 18 96 86 230

2004 10 19 105 86 380

This peak is likely related to the Planetary Alignment Mercury | Uranus on November 20.

This was definitely higher than guestimated last week, but even so, for the most part during the next eight months expect sunspot counts to dip up and down between zero and 50 or so, hovering often in this 30 - 40 range.

There will probably be some major peaks up as high as 100-150 or so, perhaps even higher, when Mercury and Venus connect with Earth, Mars, or Jupiter.

NASA REPORTS, BUT NOT VERY ACCURATELY: “SOLAR MINIMUM: Something strange happened on the sun last week: all the sunspots vanished. The "blank spell" lasted only two days, but it was significant. It's a sign, say forecasters, that solar minimum is coming sooner than expected--probably in 2006, followed by a new solar maximum in 2010.”

Sorry boys, this doesn’t fly. THE SOLAR CYCLES ARE HIGHLY IRREGULAR. YOU CAN LINE THEM ALL UP ON CHARTS FOR THE PAST 100 YEARS AND CANNOT FIND A “TYPICAL” CYCLE. The averages are all “statistics” and we all know about “statistics”, right…as in lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics…There is nothing really “early” about the slide into the next minima. It just is. AUM. Nice attempt at provocative stirring of interest, though, it seems to fit right into this Carney age.

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March 2004 was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9 April’s count was radically lower at 39.3. The May 2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April. June 2004 was higher still with an average count of 43.2. and July took as even higher to an average count of 51. August’s count dropped the average to 40, which returns us to the point on the general curve which we reached during April 2004. The law of averages finally caught with the Sun during September. For the first time all year, sunspot activity fell below the 32.8 predicted average monthly count and was only 27.7.

More and more, now and for the next half dozen years, the Sun will influence Earth’s atmosphere and weather less and less. Global Warming and El Nino type of phenomena will be more and more influential compared to the solar input. The geo-data we gather during the next three years about weather, climate, the Arctic, Antarctic, Drought Regions, etc. will be extremely valuable in telling us what the true long-term geo-trends really are.

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated. (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into). Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

The Solar Wind was modest at: 442.4 km/s this hour while pushing a thick density of 4.6 protons/cm3”.

Substantial activity this past several days continues and is likely for at least a few more days.

Fluxgate Magnetometer: The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) has shown one small and one mild disturbance during the past 24 hours. (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

NASA PREDICTS AS OF OCTOBER DAY 20: “Sunspot 682 has sprouted a beta-gamma magnetic field that poses a threat for M-class solar flares… A solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole might hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct 22nd or 23^rd.” During the next 24/48 hours, probability for an M-class solar flare is at 20% and for an X-class solar flare is at 1%, with a generally 1% - 30% probability for minor to severe geomagnetic disturbances during the next 24/48 hours, depending upon latitude (higher the latitude, higher the probability).

Jan Alvestad reports: “The geomagnetic field was very quiet to quiet on October 19. Solar wind speed ranged between 291 and 383 km/sec under the influence of a low speed stream from coronal hole CH119. The geomagnetic effects from the coronal flow are likely to become more noticeable early on October 20. Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 99.1. The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.3)...At midnight there were 8 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 2 C class events was recorded during the day...New region 10687 rotated into view at the northeast limb. This region has displayed some activity and appears to have a magnetic delta structure within the main penumbra. At least C class flaring is possible...October 18-20: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed. Coronal holes...A poorly defined coronal hole (CH119) in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on October 14-15. A recurrent coronal hole (CH120) in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on October.”

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on October 20 and quiet on October 21-22. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream (from coronal hole CH120) will likely reach Earth on October 23 and cause unsettled to active conditions during the latter half of that day and on October 24-25.“ Alvestad also predicts a 60%-100% probability of coronal holes, a 0% probability of CME’s, and a 0-20% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark. Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

FOR THE MOST PART, NOT AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: NORMAL WEATHER WILL DISSOLVE INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF CHAOTIC CONDITIONS THIS COMING SEVEN DAYS.

For the U.S. West Coast, definitely an early Winter onset in the mountains, very wet generally with lots of snow in the Mountains.

This early onset may be partly produced by the warmer than normal water in the North Pacific, due North of Hawaii and to some extent Northeast of Hawaii, close to the same latitude as Santa Barbara through to Oregon.

Unexpectedly, at least for me, the sunspot count peaked quite high this week and along with this the cyclone (hurricane) due to hit Taiwan and Japan in a few days has strengthened considerably. Expect quite a storm in the Western Pacific. ACCUWEATHER REPORTS: “Typhoon Nock-Ten was located near 12 degrees north and 143.5 degrees east, or just south of Guam with sustained winds near 110 mph. Nock-Ten was moving northwest at 16 mph. A northwesterly track and additional strengthening are likely over the next couple of days.” This is another monster storm. Expect this to strengthen up during the next 72 hours and then begin to weaken once more.

THIS PREDICTION FROM LAST WEEK WAS “OFF” THE MARK, BUT STAND PAT ON IT FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD: NO MORE HURRICANES THIS YEAR OR ONLY LOW INTENSITY HURRICANES. There is no reason to suspect an increase in Sunspot activity to energize the Earth’s atmosphere and weather. The Sun is declining now gracefully towards its MINIMA in its 11 year cycle and there are no new planetary alignments which will form up during the next few weeks to provoke the Sun into a new round of electromagnetic storms.

FOR THE U.S. WEST COAST, ALASKA, AND JAPAN:

STILL OF MAJOR INTEREST: as reported in prior weeks, a huge spot of warm water, considerably above average range, concentrated in a huge zone North of the Hawaiian Islands. The patch has bifurcated and is slightly cooler but is huge in size and shows no signs of disappearing quickly. This must be having a major impact on all marine and West Coast weather patterns.

This will create some El Nino characteristics in the Fall Weather for the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Coast of North America.

As of this week, this patch of warm water has stabilized itself along Longitude West 170 and to the East to within a few hundred miles of the Northern California Coast.

This should substantially distort the shape of the jet stream, causing a sharp steep waveform pattern sweeping across the continent, bring Pacific Ocean air into Alaska and then down the Rocky Mountains into Northern Arizona and New Mexico before sliding over the Rockies. It should be highly productive of wet warm marine air seeking to flow into North America to eventually settle out over the Mid West and the Great Lakes area.

THIS GUESS LAST WEEK WAS WRONG: We may begin to talk about an “Indian Summer” during the last two weeks of October. The warm patch IS PERSISTING AND is going to drive too much rain and snow into the area to call it an Indian Summer.

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

Due to sudden new sunspot activity and the warm patch in the North Pacific, all weather systems are unstable and intensifying. Expect lots of precipitation, wind, other symptoms of early Winter onset during the next week, then gradual clearing and return to Fall syndrome.

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR FALL SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

Normalizing out AFTER THIS NEXT SEVEN DAYS…sunspots will not be very active….return to your traditional local weathercasting.

KEEP WATCHING FOR THIS PATTERN: Global Warming could easily intensify the seasons, making a short bitterly cold Winter, longer intermediate stormy Spring and Fall seasons, and shorter but very hot and dry summers. Don’t we already see this pattern at work in the Northern Hemisphere?

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This “sloppycast” is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

Stormier, cooler, and wetter for the next several days, then returning to dry conditions and normal Fall syndrome.

Expect rain throughout the SW from Wednesday Night through Friday.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: For a large part of the elevations below 4000 feet in the Southwest, the general drought in the Western U.S. is still holding sway. Only the Winter of 2005 remains a hope at this point. At this point, everyone in the Southwest should begin to pray in earnest for a HUGE El Nino effect. During the last El Nino, the Southwest received substantial water.

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
The watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; Click here for the NOAA window on the Pacific Ocean Temperatures:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

SAME AS LAST WEEK: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THIS WEEK – CONDITIONS ALONG THE EQUATOR ARE NEAR AVERAGE AND NO DYNAMIC TREND OF CHANGE IS APPARENT.

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY – THE CLASSIC EL NINO – We do not at this point know whether an El Nino is in the offing for 2005. There are no specific signs of it along the Equator in the Pacific. Purely in accordance with the X Wave correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model, AN EL NINO IS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT IN 2005. But, the El Nino is not like an astrophysical cycle. There are some “missing” El Nino’s in the record of the 20^th century and we may have a missing one. HOWEVER, WE CAN’T BE CERTAIN UNTIL ABOUT APRIL OF 2005, which is about the latest month in which the syndrome has formed up during previous El Nino’s.

ADDITIONAL NOTE: The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS. Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year. So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC, ANTARCTIC, and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories of the climate shift.

GLOBAL WARMING

It is becoming obvious that we have a long term real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the latitudes. This climate shift is creating a growing environmental disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the Pacific Southwest. For the latest short review, see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 26, 2004 and the Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 18, 2004

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK

More or less, the Pacific Southwest will probably begin to face the bitter but essential facts of life on a “Global Warming Earth”. More probable than not, global warming is inducing this current drought condition, which is about the worst drought in at least 400 years (which is estimated from the general life of the “old growth’ Ponderosa Pine which the drought continues to kill).

As the water tables continue to drop and especially as the Colorado River reservoirs continue to dry up, engineers and technical people are already discussing the huge impact a ‘water freeze” will have on the economics of the southwest. It will mean no more permits for construction, for one thing, in the Sonoran desert, or in the Mojave, Las Vegas, etc.

More probable than not, the economics and politics of the Pacific Southwest will transition during 2005 into the new politics and economics of extreme water scarcity.

But, an El Nino next year, which is still very much a possibility, would most likely delay the transition for about 18 months.

When this transition begins, it will form up a terrible political war between the owners of the last significant unused aquifers of North America (the Hopi, Navaho, and Apache) and the crazy white man world of plutocratic real estate development corporations which dominate the political order in Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED ABOUT THE LIKELY IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON HURRICANES–

For others comments on Global Warming,

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 25, 2004

For backgrounder information about Global Warming and how to look for it and correlate it to the real causes (solar influx and tectonic heat rifts in the bottoms of the oceans), see

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 14, 2004

IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY & MASS BEHAVIOR

The mental and emotional reaction bubbles in the U.S. have formed up and have crystallized around the elections and the war issues except for about a 10% factor. Perhaps not so coincidentally, sunspots went up this past few days and the current polls now show a large number, perhaps as many as 7-10% undecided voters. So despite the polarization, there is enough loose talk and fluid responses that all political things remain unclear.

AMAZING.

STAND PAT THIS WEEK ON LAST WEEK’S COMMENTS

Most of the polls are BAAAAD. The pollsters do not understand how the sand is shifting beneath the establishment’s feet. Accordingly, they do not ask the right questions of the right kind of folks and thus do not get an accurate picture. It is that simple.

There is a significantly large momentum of new voter registrations and likely voting. The numbers of people attempting to vote (and being denied the ballot) will break all records. NONE OF THE POLLS MEASURE THIS DYNAMIC. As well, the Army will be voting absentee in record numbers and all indications show that these will be largely Kerry votes. If you will recall, it was the absentee Florida votes from the military which shoved the elections towards Bush.

The voting this Fall will likely be record-breaking. Such voting has always previously favored Democrats and third parties.

THIS IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE CLEAR AND THIS CLARITY WILL PRODUCE INTENSE STRESS AND INSTABILITY IN AMERICAN POLITICS. REPUBLICANS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE DESPERATE AND DARING IN THEIR VISCIOUS SORCERIES. MEANWHILE A GREAT MANY OF THE ELECTORATE IS WIDELY EXPECTING MAJOR ELECTION IRREGULARITIES. THERE WILL BE A VERY HIGH TENDENCY TO SEE “FRAUD” EVERYWHERE, EVEN IN THE NORMAL “SLOPPINESS” OF SOME AREAS. THROUGHOUT THE INTERNET, A “HIT THE STREETS” MANTRA IS PASSING AROUND AS THE “SOLUTION”.

This is likely to grow larger in volume unless the Democrats win with a decisive edge which cannot be cheated away. Can you imagine the elections tied up in the courts with everybody suing everybody while millions of people hit the streets? Maybe that’s what the Americans need to come to the truth. This could of course make the election results as inscrutable as the last round, and for even longer.

In the Middle East, we can see with clarity that all military action is being expressed with efficient overwhelming violence. Confusion and the hunt for appropriate action has ended. Emotionality has been put aside on the military front, machine-like operations have commenced. The collateral violence is quite high, the reaction pattern in Palestine and Iraq will further destroy the ability of both Jews and Americans to find any accommodation in the world for their positions.

If this continues, the multiplication of the killing fields will become exponential. The reaction is no longer emotional, the reaction is hardcore mental, a final, decisive generational shift of attitude of the Arab and Muslim world against U.S. involvement in the Middle East.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED:

After October 5, conditions should settle out and crystallize slowly through October and November and December. There are no planetary alignments until December 30. Whatever crystallizes out during October is likely to remain a constant until the alignments of January 5, 2005. Given world conditions, the crystallization between humans is likely to be highly polarized and highly charged with emotional energy.

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above. Unfortunately there are many lags in reporting of information about quakes, thus neither the numbers of quakes nor the actual quakes discussed may be complete and accurate. Real time analysis of quake patterns is merely AN APPROXIMATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION. FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS, Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do. See Syzygy.com

WE ARE NOW LEAVING THE SYZYGY FOR THE NEW MOON AND THE PERIGEE OF OCTOBER 18.

ONE SHOULD EXPECT REDUCED SEISMIC ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 9 DAYS EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT THIS WAS A VERY WEAK SEISMIC PERIOD. IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE A WEAKER PERIOD.

BREAKING THE SYZYGY PARADIGM: During the previous seven days, seismic activity has been low in frequency and in magnitude. The greatest activity occurred just prior to the New Moon and was reported last week.

For the preceding seven days, the greater portion of the world’s seismic energy above 3.0, was expressed in the Northern Hemisphere, especially focused in California, the West Pacific (primarily Japan, the Kuril Islanda and the Kamchatka Peninsula) and along the seismic zone of Asia Minor (East Mediterranean through to Pakistan).

Shapeshifting does not appear to be in play, only three minor quakes struck in the Great Rift of the Earth.

COSA NOSTRA DAMUS WATCH FOR SOUTH CAL.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: according to the Cosa Nostra Damus Prophecy, a major destructive quake could now strike at any time in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Hollywood, the Van Nuys Valley region, Bakersfield, and anywhere along the escarpment of the San Bernardino Mountains. This will be a follow up to the 4.9 quake which was felt in Coos Bay Oregon during July 2004. If a quake occurs near Santa Barbara, warnings will need to be given to Mexico City about the possibility of a major explosive event in Popo.

SLOW EARTH MOVEMENT WATCH

No reports to add this week

SHAPE-SHIFTERS WATCH

The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around the world increases. (Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 3.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are 4.5 plus in magnitude.) For additional information on Plate Tectonics and charts of the Great Rift of the Earth, go to Plate Tectonics Map

Only three shape-shifter quakes struck in the Great Rift, a 4.6 struck in North of Svalbard in the Mid Atlantic Rift which runs through the Arctic Ocean, and two quakes stuck along the margin of the Antarctic Plate, a 5.0 quake South of Africa and a 4.9 quake South of Latin America.

NORTH AMERICAN WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude. Any numbers used in this section may or may not be accurate and may or may not reflect what will eventually appear in scientific databases.

Seismic activity in North America overall for quakes in the range of 1.0 and over was generally down this last week for the past seven days.

For the fourth week running, except for the sudden awakening of St. Helens, the greatest activity was tightly clustered near Paso Robles and Parkfield in Central Coastal California along the San Andreas Fault. Though well below the prior weeks, the past seven days recorded nearly another 160 quakes of varying size, mostly below 2.0 to produce a highly unusual number of quakes in a small area along the San Andreas and subsidiary faults.

As we have observed for most of the past month, another tight cluster of microquakes struck due East of Mono Lake nearly dead on the Nevada border. This swarm continued the swarm which appeared during the prior four weeks, but the rate was sharply down once again. Since Mono Lake is a large volcanic landform to the North of the Long Valley Cauldera, it is most certain that this continuing swarm of small quakes, typically in the range of 1.0 to 2.0, was produced by a breaking of dikes and the flow of magma some four to five miles below the surface.

NOTE: Most volcano monitoring sites appear to be screening out microquakes. A study needs to be done to establish how to reconcile various lists and databases because of this practice. The numbers below cannot be considered to be definitive totals and subtotals. We use them merely to observe relative fluctuations from week to week.

US & ALASKA & ISLANDS --- 618

down from over 683 the prior week

BIG ISLAND HAWAII (not including microswarms) --- 12

down from 10 during the prior week - these do not include the microquakes swarming below Mauna Loa.

CALIFORNIA – NEVADA --- 505

down from 598 last week, widely scattered in California and Nevada;

PASO ROBLES PARKFIELD AREA --- 160

down from the 208 of the previous week

LONG VALLEY – 8

about the same as last week.

EAST OF MONO LAKE – 59

down from 141 quakes in the prior week

PNW --- 20

down sharply from 110 last week, widely scattered throughout the PNW, mainly along the Cascades, apparently the USGS in the PNW is now screening out all KNOWN volcano related quakes from the main quake database.

COAST OF OREGON --- 0

HOOD --- unknown

RAINIER (not including microswarms) --- 0

SAINT HELENS (not including microswarms) --- 0

UTAH --- 21

down from 31 last week.

YELLOWSTONE -- 9

down from 17 last week.

YELLOWSTONE WATCH

Activity this past seven days remained low at just 9 widely scattered microquakes in Yellowstone, some of them outside the ancient cauldera zone.

WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre. Or see “Breaking Volcano Eruption News”.

OBSERVABLE WORLD VOLCANIC ACTIVITY IS NOW DOWN A BIT FROM THE PRIOR THREE WEEKS. FEW VOLCANOES SEEM TO BE EMITTING MUCH THIS WEEK. Both Colima and St. Helens appear to be settling into an El Popo syndrome, sporadically emitting steam, gas, and some ash. The only new reports of lava are from Kilauea. Another half a dozen volcanoes appear to be sporadically “active”, but not really very eruptive.

ST HELENS: It is less likely now that lava flow or eruptions will increase in St. Helens. Look to mid-month in November or mid-month in December for increases in activity (see the syzygy periods defined above). FROM THE CVO: “As of the 20th of October, the Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO) reported that growth of the new lava dome inside the crater of Mount St. Helens continues. As long as this eruption is in progress, episodic changes in the level of activity can occur over days, weeks, or even months. Increase in the intensity of eruption could occur suddenly or with very little warning and may include explosive events that produce hazardous conditions within several miles of the volcano. Small lahars (volcanic debris flows) could suddenly descend the Toutle River valley if triggered by heavy rain or by interaction of hot rocks with snow or glacier ice. These lahars pose a negligible hazard below the Sediment Retention Structure (SRS), but could pose a hazard to people along the river channel upstream of the SRS. At this time of year, it is not unusual for rivers draining the volcano to contain high concentrations of sediment that turn the water murky. Although considered less likely at this time, the current eruptive activity could evolve into a more explosive phase that affects areas farther from the volcano and sends significant ash thousands of feet above the crater where it could be a hazard to aircraft and to downwind communities. In the past 24 hours, seismicity has not changed significantly and remains at a low level overall. Continuing storm noise explains some of the higher background signal observed. CVO has no new Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements to report. Poor weather yesterday again prevented geological observations. The current level and character of seismicity are consistent with a continuing rise of magma driving uplift of the crater floor and feeding the surface extrusion of lava. Low rates of seismicity and gas emission suggest that the lava reaching the surface is gas poor.”

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: Colima may be the closest “model” for how St. Helens may behave during the next few years. Both may erupt off and on with lava flows, as Colima is now, or with occasional ash plumes, then slowly stewing for weeks and months on end while merely steaming like nearly two dozen other volcanoes around the world, steaming until the next eruptive episode of ash and lava, which may last from a few days to several months.

AS STATED LAST WEEK: The focus on St. Helens is understandable but NOT REALLY very appropriate. It was forecast at the beginning of the year to erupt by the Southwest Volcano Institute with a 76% confidence. The current emissions can easily continue on for the next ten years in a fashion similar to the huffing and puffing of Popo and Colima or the oozing of Etna and Kilauea.

PREDICTION: The press will quickly tire of St. Helens and abandon their arduous coverage. St. Helens more probable than not will have sudden flare-offs and a few major ash plumes during the next year, but no major, explosive eruption which comes even close to its 1980 eruption. It will continue to sporadically emit steam and ash like Colima and Popo for the next few years. How much and how vigorously remains unpredictable. More probable than not during the next 90 days, perhaps with some fits and starts related to Lunar Motion. Most probable is

(a) the next New Moon – Perigee syzygy Mid-October, or

(b) the New Moon Perigee syzygy of November or December.

Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of October Day 20 2004:

6 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment) (same as last week)

48 on alert list (pre-cursors suggesting that activity may begin) (same as last week)

24 on active list (seismic, gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (up one from last week)

Popo gave a 15 puff day yesterday. Centrapred reports for October Day 20 (17:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of Popocatepetl volcano recorded only 16 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and gas emissions. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. Since this morning we can observe the volcano with some sporadic gas and steam emissions. In an aerial photograph taken on July 8th by SCT, subsidence is observed in the inner crater; an external lava dome at the bottom of the crater cannot be distinguished. Due to the low levels of activity shown in the past days, the scenarios consisting of explosions and ash emision are less probable. The traffic light of volcanic alert is in YELLOW-1. Access is restricted in a radius of 12 km from the crater. The road between Santiago Xalitzintla (Puebla) and San Pedro Nexapa (Mexico State), including Paso de Cortés, is open to controlled traffic. However, it is not permitted to remain within the 12 Km restricted area.”

MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK

from Volcano Breaking News by Volcanologist John Seach

Volcano Travel: john@volcanolive.com

Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT + 10 hr)

John Seach is on vacation.

Standing Assessment: Likely, it is fair to conclude that the not-so-invisible Black Arts Nation, from HAARP to the Navy, to the Bush/Ashcroft prisons in Iraq/Afghanistan and Cuba, not to mention many other technologies, areas, and programs, are far out of ethical, moral, constitutional, and treaty control, as has been widely feared.

BLACK ARTS NATION

STAY TUNED. We are just on the front edge of “the outing”….

What is truly bazaar about mass opinion at this current time in the U.S. is its near complete inversion. Both Kerry and Bush are seen by a substantial portion of the public, perhaps even a majority of the public, as VERY NEARLY THE OPPOSITE OF WHO THEY REALLY ARE. This greatly benefits Bush, it greatly diminishes Kerry. What is even more bazaar is the strength and persistence of the emotional and mental blinders which are maintaining the illusions which create the inversion. No matter what is presented now on TV, NOTHING SEEMS TO DENT THE ILLUSION.

ECONOMY WATCH

LITTLE CHANGE THIS WEEK

The U.S. economy will grow for at least a few more months. There are still no signs of a general recovery, there have been many growing signs of a recession, and there is clear evidence of a stagflation dynamic setting (rising prices with no growth). But, the fickle finger of fate has intervened and is creating sudden shifts which will drive sudden expansion and huge demand and production increases in certain sectors, specifically those related to construction and war.

Many of the authorized expenditures of the Bush War Machine for the Iraqi Expedition have yet to be spent. Money which should have been spent in the range of tens of billions has yet to be spent. NOW WITH THE INCREASING LOSS OF CONTROL IN IRAQ, the U.S. Military and occupation commands are going to have to suddenly shift operations and enormous sums are likely to be spent in the beginning of an expansion of military operations. This is likely to produce some stimulation of the economy during the months ahead.

BUT EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT: The Quadruple Whammy of Charles, Francis, Ivan, and Jeanne has caused ENORMOUS DAMAGE. The damage is bad news, of course, for those who lost. But it is good news for those who build things. There is going to be more demand for new construction in the Southeastern portion of the U.S., something in the range of $30 billion, all financed by Insurance Claims and Government Assurance Programs.

This will provide a substantial stimulation of the U.S. economy. Moribund Money tied up in paper assets will be liquefied to flow through several hands in a sudden spiral of new production and new consumption. This will tend to soften the stock markets because insurance companies will need to sell off a lot of stock.

The demand for construction and repair will be so great that a great many people will have to wait a year or more to rebuild. People and companies all over the U.S. will flow into the Southeast to meet the demand. Already, national databases for the construction industry are advertising for blue collar people to come to work in six month contracts at up to $35/hour plus per diem, plus health benefits.

Ironically, the tax give away to the wealthy did not work very well to expand jobs, but the Hurricanes will…

All this of course does little to save the economy from the 25 year depression cycle. It just gives the current cycle a little more life. Accordingly, the final decline will come a bit more precipitously when it comes. It may not come until 2006.

FOR THE LASTEST DETAILED DISCUSSION

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

FOR THE STAND PAT ECONOMIC PREDICTION FOR THIS YEAR,

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of May 12 2004

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES

The DJI finished October Day 20 at 9,886.93, down about $10 from last Wednesday at 9,894.45.

Is this the top of the bubble?

“Propredictions” has revised their psychic forecasts to correspond more or less with mine. They predict a soft DJI around 10,000 for the remainder of 2004 However, unlike mine to date, they predict a rise to 11,000 during the first quarter of January 2005.

WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY – SO FAR OIL COULD STILL RISE RATHER THAN FALL – WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR DRIVING OIL UP IN PRICE AND ACCELERATING THE DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR.

WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN: Eventually oil prices should drop and allow the bubble to inflate some more.

Another factor is the weakening dollar. The dollar lost another penny this past six days. As the dollar drops AND the stock values remain constant, U.S. stocks will become suddenly cheaper for foreign investors and they may begin to convert to buy U.S. stocks. This also will firm up values when it occurs, but I have no idea where the conversion points are.

BUT

The main weakness in the international economy is that that THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IS SO INCOMPETENT THAT NO INTERNATIONAL ACTOR KNOWS HOW TO BE RATIONAL AND MAKE REAL DECISIONS. EVERYTHING IS HEDGED AND HIDDEN. All news on the war fronts is terrible. Iraq recovery has essentially collapsed. Real war is heating up. The insurgents and terrorists now are just playing hide and seek in Iraq, the more the American Bull rushes them, the less energy it was to remain in the game. Bush’s support is crumbling and he couldn’t do a deal internationally if his life depended upon it.

SO THIS MAY BE IT. EVERYTHING MAY JUST ONLY GET CRAZIER FROM HERE.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: Don’t wait for Christmas Retail Sales…they will be disappointing, depress the stock values, and lead into the final economic collapse. When the DJI is above 10,000, liquidate anything you have in all such equities anywhere. The DJI MAY HIT 10,500 AGAIN but DON’T COUNT ON IT. And if it does, it will be only a signal spike which will break the market for many months, if not many years.

FOR THE LAST CURRENT DETAILED DISCUSSIONS SEE:

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

EURO WATCH

The dollar closed today at 0.7949 down about another penny from 0.8065 per euro a week ago.

“As oil goes up, the dollar will tend also to go down against the Euro.”

OIL HELD THIS PAST SEVERAL DAYS AT AROUND $55. If it holds here, the euro/dollar values will remain fairly steady. – always contingent of course on Al Qaeda activities.

REVISION OF PREDICTION ONCE AGAIN: “The overall erosion is likely to slowly continue through the year. It may bottom at $0.70 per euro by the end of 2004.” This is probably not going to happen. The international inflation of the dollar, which is being forced by international dynamics, is being made by revaluing the dollar against the barrel of oil and other basic major commodities. At the moment, and so far this year, there is very little relative movement vis a vis the Euro.

The Saudi’s HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO DELIVER on their promise to keep the price of oil low. Big Oil is slowly cooking Bush’s goose with high prices.

HOWEVER, some analysts are predicting that Big Oil is delaying retail price increases, thus keeping retail prices below their normal pump profit margins. IF THIS IS TRUE, pump prices will suddenly escalate next month, regardless of who wins the elections.

MUST READ: “The Dollar Panics” in “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, which lays out the dynamics of what is happening

SURVIVAL WATCH

FOOD WATCH

For latest info, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of July 7, 2004

JOB WATCH

Any aspect of the construction and home products industry is hot.

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, who is now widely described as the biggest corporate swindler of all time, is still scott free. (ONE OF THE WORST ECONOMIC TERRORISTS OF ALL TIME). But now finally after waiting for two or so years, Lay has been indicted. Notice the timing, near the end of the first term of the Bush Administration. At this time I will hazard the guess that he will be pardoned by Bush during the final days of his administration, probably December of this year. ANOTHER NEARLY EQUAL SIGN OF THE TIMES: The lawyers who have been settling the Enron collapse for all parties, are billing the remaining net assets of Enron for approximately $1 billion for their services. This is a new heavenly-ordained definition for the term Chutzpah. I CALL IT CLASS ECONOMIC TERRORISM.

POLITICAL WATCH

For general overview on the Tragedy in Iraq and the Bureau-Political Civil War in Washington DC, I highly recommend Tom Dispatch.

THE WORLD AWAITS THE DEPARTURE OF THE BUSH REGIME.

For general background: see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 7 2004

For latest discussions on the debates, see the Update as of October 6 2004

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT IS ANYONE’S GUESS. American politics has never been so unpredictable.

IT HAS HAPPENED AS PREDICTED WEEKS AGO: To counter the attacks and legal moves against them, the Bush-iters will use every sorcery they can contrive to conceal everything which is not nailed down in plain site in front of the New York Times. They will even chip away at that late at night. They will use Saddam Hussein in every way possible to rationalize their existence, deeds, and legitimacy to be re-elected. Every lie and form of bigotry they have ever used will be retread to denigrate Kerry, Edwards, Nader, and every other candidate for lower office. The meltdown of U.S. politics into a world-class cesspool manipulated by a sordid class of third rate sorcerers will be nearly complete.

ISN’T IT SO?????????????

Isn’t it difficult to admit that we live in such a sordid third rate political system populated by such liars and con men? Every speech, every appearance, every report, replete with conscious, deliberately deceiving distortions so that a few can take advantage of others AND MAKE SUCKERS OUT OF YOU AND I?

DON’T YOU JUST WANT TO PULL THE LEVER FOR A GOOD FLUSH OF THIS CRAP?

I HOPE THIS IS JUST AN ANNEALING PROCESS, THE TIME OF THE EXPOSIING AND BURNING AWAY OF THE CRAP. PERHAPS WE ARE NOW FINALLY FIGHTING IN ONE OF THE LAST CHAPTERS IN THE STRUGGLE FOR THE SOUL OF AMERICA WHICH BEGAN ON THE STREETS OF BERKELEY WITH THE FREE SPEECH MOVEMENT AND THE REALIZATION THAT THE VIETNAM WAR WAS A HIDDEOUS MISTAKE.

The only question now is, will enough wake by November 2, or will it take another four years of economic, social, and political devastation in the U.S. to draw up enough people into a higher state of awareness?

Many who will the change are now pessimistic. Despite a year of exposing the grave crimes of the Imperial Faction and the incompetence of their President, a near majority of Americans refuse to believe that conditions have become so corrupt. They insist on drawing their blinders more tightly around their favorite illusions.

For a time yet, the truth may remain an orphan in the street.

BUT EVEN SO, NOW, IN THE OCTOBER AIR, CONDITIONS SEEM MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR AN AMERICAN REGIME CHANGE.

BULLETIN ITEM: My Predictions On The Elections

MWM: A subscriber sent this question:

Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 10:37:24 -0700 (PDT)

From: Redrockbunny

Subject: The Presidency

To: mwm

Hello Michael-

Personally speaking, who do you think will become our next President....Bush or Kerry? (PLEASE tell me it will be the lesser of two evils....Kerry.) lol

Thanks,

R.R.

MWM: OK, here are a few preliminary thoughts:

There is no way to answer either of these questions in a reasonably objective manner. Anybody who attempts it is a fool.

In the first place, the damn process is so rigged, archaic, and inefficient, with malicious tricksters and slysters hanging out in every nook and cranny that it is impossible to aggregate a reasonable guess on the probabilities. Second, most of the polling is a wasted effort. The parameters are wrong and the samples FAR too limited, and the essential DYNAMIC not well enough understood by the pollsters to properly frame their samples and questions.

So forget the worthless media sensation polls. We know not a clue what is really going on. We are mushrooms in the barn, being fed b*llsh*t.

Thirdly, the lawyer class seem hugely motivated to interfere in the election process locally all over the country in an attempt to catch crooks, or block unwanted outcomes. THERE WILL BE RECORD BREAKING LEGAL INTERFERENCE IN THE ELECTIONS AND THE PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN COLORADO AND FLORIDA, AND GOD KNOWS WHERE ELSE. There is no way to get a handle on how much this will influence the elections. My belief is that this will delay final certifications on the winner until late in December, possibly the elections will be thrown with legal disputes into the House of Representatives and will not be resolved until January or February of next year.

One of the factors which is NOT well enough understood is that there IS A HUGE DISCONNECT between the East Coast Yuppie Bubble and the rest of the country. The further West you go, the more the East Coast seems like an alien imperial power from Mars. Right now that alien power is in alliance with the extremist fundamentalists in Texas, Oklahoma, and the SE, but the rest of the West has a different dynamic going.

For one thing, Kerry is only VERY MARGINALLY accepted in the West. Everybody is motivated to vote for Kerry to eliminate the Bush Imperial Faction.

THIS IS THE MAIN OBJECTIVE. WE MUST STALEMATE THE IMPERIAL FACTION, OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A DRAFT, THERE WILL BE A WIDER EXPANSION OF PERPETUAL WAR, AND THE U.S. WILL END UP ATTEMPTING BY OCCUPATION TO CONTROL ALL THE OIL IN THE MIDDLE EAST TO PAY FOR THE COSTS OF THE WORLD MILITARY ESTABLISHMENT WHICH IS CONTROLLED BY THE PRO-CONSUL PRESIDENT AND THE PLUTARCHS WHO CONTROL HIS ACCESS TO OFFICE AND WEALTH.

These people have clearly laid out their plans and there is really no surprise in what they want to do and will do if they have the chance. It is all laid on the Internet, through such documents as the “Plan For New American Century”.

Don't think for a moment that they will not impose a draft. As we have all noticed, Bush has no problem lying at the drop of a hat, in fact cannot open his mouth with his chronic lying resurfacing, thus his promise not to impose the draft is as credible as the Weapons of Mass Deception: 000000000000000000000

A wider war and vast expansion of National Fascism is the inevitable outcome of the Bush Crime Family's continued control of Washington D.C. The Bush Crime Family has made most of its fortune out of the major world wars. Don't think they will shy away from this.

THE MOST WE CAN EXPECT FROM KERRY ELECTION IS TO TOTALLY STALEMATE THE GOVERNMENT. THERE IS NOTHING OF HIS AGENDA WHICH CAN BE PASSED BECAUSE THE REPUBS WILL CONTROL ALL OR ENOUGH OF CONGRESS TO BLOCK ALL EFFORTS.

SO THE ONLY LIKELY OUTCOME IS THAT THE STUPID BUSH MANAGEMENT OF DIPLOMACY AND MILITARY AFFAIRS WILL BE OVERCOME. Kerry has the constitutional power to do pretty much as he feels he must in the Middle East, beholden really to none.

This will open the door to peace initiatives and decisions which might be able to staunch the bleeding and overturn the current dismal conditions.

Kerry will have to take a radical approach to formally involving the Islamic world to create the context for solving the problem. An approach, for instance, as in the "Full Mobilization Employment Plan" for Iraq which I proposed. Only something on that magnitude will work.

The problem is that the careerists (the Imperial Faction AND the Democratic Leadership Council) in Washington DC are risk-adverse to the "vision thing". It is morally and politically too challenging for conventional careers.

SO I HAVE NO IDEA IF KERRY IS CAPABLE OF RISING BEYOND "POUNDING THE CRAP OUT OF THE IRAQIS" (as many voices in the military will argue for).

THE ONLY THING I AM CERTAIN IS THAT IF THE U.S. ATTEMPTS TO ESCALATE ITS MILITARY EFFORTS IN IRAQ, THE MORE QUICKLY AND THE MORE BITTER WILL BECOME ITS DEFEAT. THE U.S. IS IN A GENUINE HISTORICAL STALEMATE IN WHICH IT CAN NEITHER LOSE NOR WIN IN THE SHORT TERM, ALL IT WILL DO IS BLEED UNTIL THE BULL IS WEARY AND STOPS CHARGING. THEN THE LOSS WILL BE APPARENT, the Bull will fall over and die.

So if Kerry wants the military to be more aggressive in bombing Iraqi neighborhoods, his efforts will come to naught and we will watch the sometimes violent collapse of the American Empire during the next five years. If Kerry undertakes to involve the Islamic community and diverge substantially from the East Coast Zionist mindset, we have a chance of creating enough peace to handover Iraq to people who can actually govern the country.

He gives hints of being able to rise to the occasion, but there is nothing certain about it.

To succeed in this, Kerry needs to dramatically change the international psychology, such as profoundly apologizing to the world for the immense stupidly and arrogance of the past three years. He has to connect with this solidly to "clear the air". If he cannot rise to this occasion, it is doubtful he can succeed decisively for sometime in disengaging the U.S. on peaceful terms.

So there you have it....NOTHING IS VERY CLEAR but if we are lucky enough to get Kerry elected decisively, a huge number of us will feel a lot better for at least a little while. Just being able to NOT listen to Bush's face everyday telling me more demented lies will make me feel a lot better about myself and my countrymen.

If you want to make a difference on the vote, call up your local Democratic committee and volunteer to work part-time in your neighborhood over Halloween weekend and on election day. The more presence the better. The more we might randomly influence "undecideds" to vote for Kerry. I am personally giving it a shot as a volunteer precinct worker.

A new media now arrives, floating down the river Iway, and with it comes a new consciousness of the world and the lies which have driven so much of the past 50 years….

From this, the future will arise as the old world slowly collapses.

All else is fluid, in transition. Thank God Almighty!

THE STRATEGIC SITUATION – Final Synopsis
For predictions related to the mess in Palestine, the Middle East, and the Bush political era.

CONDITIONS IN IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST

ARE IN EXTREME CRISIS

The entire world continues to witness the American impasse in Iraq. American policy and management are now clearly on trajectory to a catastrophic loss.

As reported in prior months: Since May 2004 it has been obvious that the U.S. Military was adrift without a rudder AND MISSING ITS PADDLES whilst attempting a turn-around far up the creek named Iraq.

A discredited Army engagement doctrine pounds away at densely settled urban zones with exceptional violence. The results please no one and simply increase the polarization of world dynamic forces into greater opposition.

Bottom line:

All the King’s Men got mugged by a swindling crook named Chalabi, who sold the New World Order Emperor the equivalent of the Brooklyn Bridge – the mythical Weapons of Mass Destruction.

To claim this prize, the Mass Broadcast Media began beating the war drums and the “Good German” Americans goose-stepped to war. One thousand and counting Americans died in vain, along with some 30,000 Iraqis, and some 8000 U.S. soldiers got maimed for life, with unknown numbers of Iraqi’s wandering around mutilated in some fashion. And then there is the DU poisoning. God only knows how many tens of thousands of people are getting poisoned for life by the depleted uranium.

As we listen carefully to the Presidential campaign in the U.S. during the Fall of 2004, we can see that neither Kerry nor Bush has anything BUT talking points…quite clearly the American political system is bankrupt and drawing a blank on vision and respect for the opinion of humankind.

Vote for Bush, to stay the course. Just remember, stubborn people at the gambling hall craps table of history simply eventually loose it all, big time. Or vote for the earnest but ambiguously anti-war, idealistic Kerry. God only knows what pig is in the poke of the Democrats.

As things stand now, sometime in 2005, Americans will beat a hasty retreat, under the pretext of some contrived imaginary political fig leaf, and we will see the last helicopter evacuation from Iraq...finishing the historical parallel of this Tragedy with the Tragedy of Vietnam.

If so, it will be the beginning of the end of both the American Century and the U.S. Constitution. A generation of upheaval and grievous conflict will ensue before the Americans can repose themselves and their society on a sounder basis.

FOR THE LASTEST SUMMARY BRIEFING ON THE SITUATION AND THE WAY OUT OF IT, GO TO

“A Letter To The Generals: Saving Iraq and Saving The U.S.”

FOR A PDF VERSION, CLICK HERE.

HERE IS THE MAIN HOPE OUT OF THIS STRATEGIC IMPASSE:

AN AUTHENTIC ISLAMIC MORAL AUTHORITY IS ARISING AND IS BEGINNING TO FORGE A COALITION TO UNIFY IRAQ AND BRING CIRCUMSTANCES TO THE POINT WHERE THE AMERICANS CAN BE ASKED TO LEAVE. QUICKLY.

THE ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE FORGED BY JANUARY. MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT, THE MULLAHS WILL ARRANGE THE ELECTION OF A GOVERNMENT WHICH ASSERTS ITS SOVEREIGNTY AND ASKS THE U.S. TO LEAVE VIRTUALLY IMMEDIATELY.

PASS THE WORD: THIS IS HOW IT WILL END IN IRAQ, NEITHER BY BUSH NOR BY KERRY.

Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at mwman@earthlink.net
Master Website Index is at: http://www.michaelmandeville.com

Author of several books, including: "Return of the Phoenix" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/phoenix/phoenix.htm
and "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006.htm
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