PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Please Note: This Bulletin is conceived as a System. It is still in an early stage of evolution. We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of December 15 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this URL

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_Dec_15_04.htm

UPDATE PREDICTIONS FOR 2005 – 2012

and through “The Tribulations”

I am working on a systematic update which succinctly outlines predictions for the period 2005 – 2012 and through the period of what the Q’ero call the Pachacuti and the Hopi call the “Great Purification” (also known as the “Time of Troubles” or “The Tribulations”). For a variety of reasons, the final keys for putting together the final plot line of the Fourth Age and the most probable key signals are now being brought forward into my consciousness in a way which will allow me to describe them clearly and specifically to the world. Due to many issues, the greater bulk of this material shall not be openly available directly on the internet. Access to most of the predictions will be made available through paid annual subscriptions. Because of the strategic seriousness of some of the predictions, some I will only make available through mouth and ear in private seminars. I will begin to advise of this material through the EC Bulletins, through Alex Merklinger’s radio program, and through other radio appearances, such as the Lou Gentile Show.

FOR THIS AMAZING GLOBAL WARMING YEAR

On the geophysical front, SOLAR activity continued to slowly abate this past seven days and yesterday’s Sunspot Count fell steeply to 18 while the Solar Flux sank to 89. ACCORDINGLY. DECEMBER’S WEATHER AND HUMAN EMOTIONS) WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY GEOPHYSICAL. El Nino REMAINS currently NOT on the way BUT the North Pacific is STILL SHOWING A POSSIBLE ANOMALY IN TEMPERATURE. This was weak as of December 5 but it could “heat up” again to greatly perturb the jet stream across North America and bring an enormously wet and snowy winter deeply to the Southwest and then across into Texas and the lower Great Plains. From below during the past seven days, the Earth remained sedate except for a 6.8 quake near the Cayman Islands. Volcanism simmered but mostly declined slightly except for a continuation of a major eruption on Manam near Papua. Likely the Earth will now remain sedated for the week ahead, possibly until the second week in January.

LATE BREAKING NEWS EVE. DEC 15: Sunspots climbed again to 28 while the Flux remained at 89.

On the geopolitical front, The truly bad news remains, the Bush Imperial Faction is currently well on the road to having seized complete control over the U.S. government while dozens of issue continue to fester through the Iway and poison international politics. Likely the U.N. will remain safe from the vandals in New York who are working to sack it, but the U.S. government will end up so infested by the work of the Bush Administration that it will take a generation to rid it of right wing implants. The next political blow-up of course is in late January, when the Iraqi elections, mass demonstrations in Washington DC, many lawsuits, and possibly the hand of Al Qaeda, may all converge. After that, Bush’s next term will get progressively more and more unstable and untenable and the tragic consequences of his regime may finally entangle him and bring him down.

Go to detailed synopsis…

This hidden column on the right is available for links, banners, and icons of Earth Changes Bulletin subscribers who have made their annual donation. Inquire by sending query for exact procedure by sending a REPLY to the Earth Changes Bulletin weekly email update. YOU MUST HAVE BEEN SUBSCRIBED FOR AT LEAST 30 DAYS TO QUALIFY (or a previous subscriber)..

NOTES

Grayed items are not yet operational

Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/

The Bulletin is written in Arizona (UTC +8 hours) so any relative references, such as “Today”, or “Tomorrow”, or “Yesterday” should generally to taken to refer to the day spans as experienced in Western North America.

PREVIOUS
WEEKLY

UPDATES

Nov 24 not available as of this date

UPDATE PREDICTIONS FOR 2005 – 2012 and through “The Tribulations”

A systematic synopsis is being assembled which succinctly outlines predictions for the period 2005 – 2012 and through the period of what the Q’ero call the Pachacuti and the Hopi call the “Great Purification” (also known as the “Time of Troubles” or “The Tribulations”. This outline will update the predictions in “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006” and the “Return of the Phoenix”, mainly by confirming the general plot line and by adding more details which carry the predictions well beyond 2006-2008.

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007. Click here to download

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008: This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since May 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent. If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF DECEMBER 8, 2004: The dollar has firmed up for the short term. Oil prices are definitely down, perhaps through this month, but the price could rise again fairly soon in January. Meanwhile, Christmas is proving out to be a flat performance – not sour but not anything to write home about . This will keep stock values at current prices with a sag due in January.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF DECEMBER 1, 2004:

As stated November 17, no change except to add that the erosion of the dollar is now accelerating and there is a nearly universal feeling among the watchers and managers that the euro is going up as the dollar sinks yet more to adjust for the terrible imbalances in the American economy created by its profligate, highly spoiled scions who lust after Empire.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF NOVEMBER 17, 2004:

As per stated below, the bubble is re-inflating for a few more weeks or even months if Al Qaeda does not attack. Oil prices are dropping as stocks and equities firm up and the economy continues expansion with the expectation that American Imperialism will continue (unfortunately) to drive international events during 2005. BEWARE SUDDEN REVERSALS WHEN ALQAEDA STRIKES. BEWARE THE EMERGING SUPER-COALITION IN EURASIA WHICH WILL PROGRESSIVELY UNDERCUT THE AMERICAN DOLLAR DURING 2005, GENERALLY IN A MEASURED WAY WHICH AVOIDS SUDDEN PANIC. This is not a hostile action, it is a sensible reaction of the world to the vast over-reach of America’s Imperial Pretenders. This will produce a strong trend of basic price inflation in the U.S. as basic material commodity prices and the cost of imported goods continue to rise. The world WILL solve the Balance of Payments problem, mainly by raising the dollar costs of imports beyond the means of Americans to purchase them.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF NOVEMBER 3, 2004:

On all economic fronts, hang tuff. The bubble will hang in there for a little while longer even if it is currently sagging under the high oil prices. Oil prices will come down this Winter and the rebuilding boom in the SE section of the country will keep the economy firm. Stocks will go back up with the decline in oil prices and so will the value of the dollar. All long term projection for the collapse in 2006 is still right on target. The main proviso in all things is Al Qaeda. The re-election of Bush will, more probable than not, bring Osama Bin Laden to order another major round of terrorist attacks against the U.S. with in a few weeks. Such attacks will likely have a major negative impact on the U.S. economy.

ALL DATES AND TIMES USED IN THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN ARE NOW UTC = Universal Time Constant, previously known as Greenwich Mean Time.

HOUSEKEEPING

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 7 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Time). Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin. To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network.

MANDEVILLE WILL BE INTERVIEWED ON THE LOU GENTILE SHOW: Fri. Jan. 7, 2005 - 5 PM to 7 PM PACIFIC TIME

(Eastern Orthodox Christmas)

TOPIC: Predictions and Prophecies 2005 and Beyond

· Updating Cayce's Earth Changes and Economic Depression Cycle

· Political/Economic Consequences of Bush's Empire Building

· How all this in 2004/2005 may connect with the Nostradamus prophecy as seen through Dolores Cannon.

Through Gentile's questions I will talk out a lot of predictions and interconnections of prophecies which I have not had time to keyboard into the computer.

Begin Synopsis

As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species. As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth. Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it. Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time. Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK FOR THE REMAINDER:

UNDERTAKE A RESOLUTE FOCUS

WALK AWAY FROM THE COMING WARS AND THE LEADERS WHO ARE PUSHING US INTO THE WARS OR INTO THEIR INDIRECT SUPPORT.

UTTERLY REFUSE THEM IN EVERY WAY THAT YOU CAN.

A great turning towards peace is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity,

REGRETFULLY, A LARGE PROPORTION OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE STILL SOUND ASLEEP UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UGLY EMOTIONS AND A THOUSAND NIGHTMARES OF SELF-DOUBT AND ACUTE DENIAL OF SELF-WORTH. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST A THIRD OF THE POPULATION IS BARELY ABOVE AN EMOTIONAL AGE-LEVEL OF 8 AND CAN OFFER LITTLE MORE THAN SERVING AS FASCIST FODDER.

Accordingly, America will remain under the thrall of lies and conceits while the merchants of dominance, hate, revenge, empire-building, violence, and conquest crow even more loudly on the world stage.

But even as they initiate to undertake a great militarization of North America for an ambitious expansion of empire-building over the Arab oil producing states, a consciousness is gathering greater focus to dissolve away the entire Bush-Alqaeda continuum of absolutism and militarism and replace its brutalities with profound movement en masse towards peaceful solutions.

The gathering movement did not wax strong enough to end the Bush Presidency, but perhaps the movement will never function successfully with the corrupted, archaic forms of the old United States.

Perhaps the movement has a greater destiny. Look for it. Greet it. Nourish it with love.

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird. Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls. The old patterns are falling away. Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO. In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them. This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.

Don’t react, go to center, get clear, release, and grieve…the Fourth Age is dying rapidly now… much more rapidly than we thought, its institutions and identities are beyond saving… let it go, let go, get to center…flow into God, let God flow into you…don’t speculate, don’t analyze, don’t react to the shtuff…clear…clean out the past four years…we are now free to grieve the death of everything we detested…let it go…let it go…let it die. As you re-center in God, find the realization that this is the final moment you have been waiting for to end your connections and involvements with the illusions and delusions of all that which has betrayed the divine within each and brought greed, war, and destruction over the Earth.

The destroyers belong to each other, this is now the final time of their fatal embrace. Let them love their wars…they have greatly desired the bitter wines of their hatreds and violence, they have lusted greatly for their Armageddon, and they shall have it.

The die has been cast with a thousand artifices and illusions. With the excellence of its manner of casting, God has delivered to you your own freedom from the delusions and spells of the Mass Sorcerers, indeed, from the entire age, if you will but realize it. Clear yourself and your life to find now the sense of movement and direction to separate your life from the dying culture which is putrefying all around you. There is no saving it…as Buckminster Fuller observed many decades ago, the old order is never saved, the new order merely grows up around it to eventually takes its place. So it will come to pass now in an intense period of vast change during the next twenty years.

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues. How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration. This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE. To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

Polar motion is returning to its more normal spiral track.

THE PANCAKING OF THE X MAX PEAK WHICH WE OBSERVED in previous weeks dissolved rapidly during the past two weeks (See the URL’s below for the xplot). CONFIRMED: I EXPECT A STRONG, SHARP REBOUND, quite possibly in connection with the New Moon Perigee of December 12.

The rebound happened but without producing a lot of seismic shocks in the Earth. Currently the spiral track is tightening up at a very rapid rate and I believe that it may be in a track which is consistent with a noticeable, anomalously large displacement of the average drift of the location of the North Spin Axis. In other words, the current rapid tightening of the track into the Minima phase of the seven year wobble cycle is consistent with the idea that the average location of the North Spin Axis “jumped” more than normal (at a faster rate) this past six years than during the preceding 100 years.

Or, more succinctly still, a micro “pole shift”. Very micro.

I don’t think this can be computed with confidence until sometime very late in 2005 when the current cycle of the wobble is clearly complete.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED THIS PAST FEW MONTHS: THE X WAVE MAX, which we are in for the current 14 month spiral track, HAS BEEN showing some pancaking (see the xplot links below). Rather than a smooth bell-shaped curve, the X plot HAS BEEN currently plateauing. The Earth is showing some hesitancy to continue the spiraling wobble and is favoring slightly a motion at a vector which is keeping the Atlantic Hemisphere pushing towards the North. This is now apparently going to rebound during the next two weeks.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS WATCH HAS BEEN SET TO LOOK EXACTLY FOR THIS TYPE OF DEPARTURE OF THE EARTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS SPIRALING WOBBLE TRACKS. Seeing the slight tendency of the Atlantic Hemisphere to continue pushing to the North CONFIRMS THE DEDUCTION FOR THE PROJECTED AVALANCHE OF THE CRUST WHICH WAS CALCULATED IN THE “RETURN OF THE PHOENIX”.

In general, the Wobble Track is showing continued tightening of the Chandler’s Wobble Spiral, as should be at this time in its 7 year Wobble Cycle, and the track seems to be conforming with a continued acceleration in the rate of drift, but this can be by no means certain until this 7 year cycle is over. In about two years we will be able to locate the minimum spiral of motion and then look for the average 7 year "location" of this past seven years for comparison with previous cycles.

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth. No real change during the past year: a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

Currently, there is little of note. Despite many claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical analysis of many different regions of the Earth.

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates). For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar. The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows. Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way. http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html

Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets. Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake. You can set any date and time. You should generally ask the form to give you the “equal orbits” view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2004

Distance

Perigee 12-Dec 21:31 357985 km N+ 20h

New 12-Dec 1:29

Full 26-Dec 15:07

Apogee 27-Dec 19:16 406487 km F+1d 4h

For 2005, see the August 25 EC Update

TODAY’S MOON

We are in Lunation #1014 and we are now 4 days past the New Moon of December 12 at 1:29 UTC. As of December Day 15, the Moon this day is now in its South Node (orbiting South of the Equator). It is now approximately 366,000 KM from the Earth. It is 20% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase) now waxing into the Full Moon of December 26.

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

QUALIFER: As we have seen at least three times this past year, most dramatically with the recent outbreak (Oct 23-26 2004) of large Earthquakes on the West side of Honsho Island (Japan), the Syzygy Window and Perigee principles DO NOT WORK CONSISTENTLY TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE NOR FREQUENCY OF EARTHQUAKES. Using strictly an intuitive view of the past 12 months, the rate of accuracy is definitely larger than random but probably not larger than about 70% for any given area.

We have just left the seismic New Moon Perigee syzygy of December 12 which occurred within 20 hours of each other. This syzygy should have produced more seismic energy release (earthquakes) than during most of the other syzygies of the preceding year. And in fact it did provide substantial activity on the Carib Plate, including a 6.8 in the Cayman Islands and a 6.0 quake in El Salvador.

BUT, TRUE TO THE PAST 90 DAYS, the “window” was a BUST overall. All around the world in most places, tectonic activity was down and both frequency and magnitude of quakes were LOW compared to the less focused seismic period in November.

AS WE HAVE OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS, the syzygy window concept has not worked very well to “contain” the major quakes during this latter part of 2005. THIS MAY BE BECAUSE OF THE “PANCAKE ANOMALY” we have observed during the past 90 days in the motion of the North Spin Axis (on the IERS Xplot). This anomaly may have generated unusual stress on the Earth’s crust and it may have profoundly affected the syzygy windows.

Unfortunately we may not be able to determine this for a substantial time.

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision. For details see the Syzygy website

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit). (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.) For details see the Syzygy website.

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH TO DECEMBER 21, 2004

At the current time the outer planets are widely distributed and no new alignments are forming up between them. But now many new alignments will be forming up during the next two months mainly as a result of Mercury’s rapid rotation around the Sun, which enables it to catch up and pass by the planets about every three months.

Here is the last alignments during December 2004:

December 30, 2004 Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close together and Earth near Saturn alignment

SO FAR, WITH THE FAILURE OF ALIGNMENTS IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER TO PRODUCE LARGE PEAKS IN THE SUNSPOT COUNTS, it looks like Solar Cycle 23 is definitely deflating rapidly and it looks like most of the planetary alignments will now be producing only small fluctuations in the counts, probably in the range of 10 – 60 for the most part during 2005. This probably means that marine storm fronts will be driven less by solar induced atmospheric shifts and more by Earth’s geophysics and atmospherics.

CAUTIONARY NOTE: major sunspot peaks, big flares, coronal holes, and powerful CME’s will still occur once in a while, as the graphs of previous sunspot cycles definitely show, but it looks to me that these will be a lot less predictable than during the past four years.

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR LATE DECEMBER 2004 – JUNE 2005

For late December through to June 2005, four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

The Aphelion Six Way Cluster Bomb

At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period. Expect an INTENSELY STORMY WINTER.

December 30, 2004 Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005 Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005 Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts. The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

March 14, 2005 Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005 Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

Summer Ping Pong

June 7, 2005 Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune. The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs in the sunspot count.

PLANET WATCHING

For background and the current information on observable planets.

NASA REPORTS: Comet Machholz (C/2004 Q2) has been nearing Earth for weeks, brightening day by day, and now it looks like a fuzzy 5th-magnitude star near the feet of Orion. Look for it in the southeastern sky a few hours after sunset: sky map. Astronomers expect Comet Machholz to reach peak brightness (3rd or 4th magnitude) in January 2005--an easy target for Christmas telescopes. [ephemeris]

NASA'S DATA ON NEAR EARTH ASTEROIDS: "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

On 1 Dec 2004 there were 654 known Potentially

Hazardous Asteroids (three more than last month). For December 2004, NASA has listed two Earth-asteroid encounters ranging from 1.5 million to 2 million miles away (5 to 7 average Lunar distances).

2004 RZ164	Dec. 8	7 LD
2004 VW14	Dec. 24	5 LD

Notes: LD is a "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon.

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

The Sunspot Count has steadily dropped (with several small ups and downs) from 72 on November 24 down to 19 as of December 14 AND IS CURRENTLY HEADED DOWN. The Flux has gradually DROPPED from about 110 down to 89 as of December 14 where it is on a plateau.

Overall, since a high of 178 on October 24, sunspot activity has trended steadily down while bouncing down and up in small frequent chops of about 10-20 sunspots in each bounce.

The solar flux however has stayed quite high and this suggests that sunspot peaks could still quickly form up to drive a short climb up well past 100 to induce sudden extremes in Earth’s weather.

Date Flux Sunspots Area

2004 12 01 111 52 450

2004 12 02 106 62 470

2004 12 03 101 58 450

2004 12 04 97 43 280

2004 12 05 96 46 230

2004 12 06 93 47 230

2004 12 07 90 26 100

2004 12 08 82 40 120

2004 12 09 87 39 100

2004 12 10 85 39 40

2004 12 11 90 16 50

2004 12 12 91 26 100

2004 12 13 90 22 120

2004 12 14 89 18 130

THE FAILURE OF THE PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER SUGGESTS THAT THE AVERAGE COUNT FOR DECEMBER WILL BE THE LOWEST FOR ALL YEAR. THIS WILL BRING SOLAR CYCLE 23 DURING 2005 VERY CLOSE TO ITS MINIMA WITH SUBSTANTIALLY LESS SOLAR ACTIVITY THAN DURING 2004.

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March 2004 was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9 April’s count was radically lower at 39.3. The May 2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April. June 2004 was higher still with an average count of 43.2. and July took as even higher to an average count of 51. August’s count dropped the average to 40, which returns us to the point on the general curve which we reached during April 2004. The law of averages finally caught with the Sun during September. For the first time all year, sunspot activity fell below the 32.8 predicted average monthly count and was only 27.7

October became a major anomaly. The “smoothed” average count for October was predicted to be 32.5 but at 48.4 it was dramatically higher, 21 points above September’s average. November continued the anomaly, but showed a decline to 43.7

December should continue this decline and may very well be the lowest count for 2004, bringing the curve back to the average.

Once again we are reminded that the Sun and its cycles are really not very “average” and not very “cyclical” or “regular”. Nowhere can we find any evidence of an exact regularity, only constant variations. The Sun is and probably always has been a vast cauldron of chaotic storms, electro-magnetic upwellings, and enormous explosions and sudden flares (or CME’s) which can extend out as far as even the outer planets, producing somewhat chaotic impacts on the planets.

All this makes exact predictions of solar activity far beyond the pale of human science, even with first class models of the electromagnetic gradients created by the planets and their orbital relationships. From this it is easy to infer with considerable experience and conviction, that nothing on Earth can be foreseen, EXACTLY. Just as some order is inevitable, so is some chaos built directly into the cosmos.

But even so the average count should drop during the next 12 months to a monthly low in the range of 10. More and more, now and for the next half dozen years, the Sun will influence Earth’s atmosphere and weather less and less. Global Warming and El Nino type of phenomena will be more and more influential compared to the solar input. The geo-data we gather during the next three years about weather, climate, the Arctic, Antarctic, Drought Regions, etc. will be extremely valuable in telling us what the true long-term geo-trends really are.

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated. (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into). Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

The Solar Wind was very mild at: 375.3 km/s this hour while pushing a very thick density of 7.8 protons/cm3”.

Solar activity is still on a descending curve as has been apparent during the past two weeks

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

Fluxgate Magnetometer: The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) is showing today three small magnetic disturbances each of an hour or two in duration DURING the past 36 hours.(as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

NASA AURORA WATCH: no forecast

NASA REPORTS: “A solar wind stream flowing from…(a) coronal hole might buffet Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 16th.”

NASA PREDICTS: 5-350% probability of geomagnetic storms, 1% probability on coronal holes, CME’s, and M and/or X Class Flares

Jan Alvestad reports: “The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 348 and 433 km/sec under the influence of a weak coronal hole flow. Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 89.3. The planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.1)...The background x-ray flux is at the class A8 level. At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day. Region 10711 decayed slowly and will rotate over the northwest limb today. An extension (CH133) of the northern polar coronal hole may have been in a marginally geoeffective position on December 13.”

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 15. On December 16 effects from coronal hole CH133 could reach Earth with quiet to active conditions likely that day and on December 17.” Alvestad also predicts for the next 24 hours a 20-60% probability of coronal holes, a 0-20% probability of CME’s, and a 0-20% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been watching the weather patterns track the Sunspot Peaks have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark. Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile. With the decline in sunspot activity, weather is now more governed by Earth’s geophysics and will be mostly through to about 2010. For geophysical-based reports and predictions – start with Yahoo Weather, or the Weather Channel. Am I resigning from weather forecasts? Almost. This section will only add commentary on possible weather disturbances when major sunspot peaks form up. These should be more rare than during the past four years.

IT CONTINUES: For the U.S. West Coast and now the Rocky Mountains Plateau, a lulling. The same can be said for Northern Europe as the North Sea. It has been extremely wet generally with lots of snow in the Mountains, much unseasonable rain and some flooding. This current lulling, of perhaps 7-14 days, may be followed with another very wet wave which planetary alignments at the end of December may drive across the continents during the first week of January.

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

Mild, seasonal

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR FALL SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

The next major solar sunspot induced storm fronts should appear just after the New Year in 2005.

The warm water in the North Pacific (Gulf of Alaska) did not dissipate during the first week of December after a month of gradual decline. Weather should not be affected much by this abatement, but it may have the impact of slightly twisting the jet stream to bring cold wet air a little further South than “normal” on North America.

KEEP WATCHING FOR GLOBAL WEATHER PATTERN: Global Warming could easily intensify the seasons, making a short bitterly cold Winter, longer intermediate stormy Spring and Fall seasons, and shorter but very hot and dry summers. Don’t we already see this pattern at work in the Northern Hemisphere?

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This “sloppycast” is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

The past 60 days has clearly broken the drought pattern of the past four years. You can see it in the plants and the atmosphere everywhere. It “feels” wet here now even on a sunny day, which it rarely has during the past six years (that I have been here). Some climatologists are arguing that this is an anomalous wet year for the Pacific Southwest and that the drought will reassert itself next year or the year after. I am inclined to think that the drought in the Southwest is a product of both the Sunspot Cycle 23 and the Global Warming syndrome. From this, I suppose that the drought pattern may be somewhat reduced during the next four years during the Sunspot Minima, submerged completely by a lot of rain during El Nino, if it appears, but slowly the drought will reappear during the next climb of sunspot counts during Solar Sunspot Cycle 24.

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
The watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; Click here for the NOAA window on the Pacific Ocean Temperatures:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

NO COMPUTABLE CHANGE AS OF DECEMBER 5. Conditions along the Pacific Equator are about the same. However, a slight increase in the North Pacific may have a minor effect on the Marine Air flowing into North America through Alaska and B.C.

EL NINO MAY NOT OCCUR. NO PREDICTION ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IS POSSIBLE AT THE CURRENT MOMENT.

As of December 5, conditions for El Nino are still about the same as in previous weeks – very weak with no trend no active. A large expanse of the Pacific Equator WAS warming up faster than normal and two nodes of considerably hotter than normal water could be seen forming up at about Long. East 170 and at about Long. West 90 (this near the Galapagos Islands). THIS BUILD UP DECLINED FROM NOVEMBER 7 THROUGH 16 and then the temperatures remained about the same November 16 – December 5.

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY – THE CLASSIC EL NINO – We do not at this point know whether an El Nino is in the offing for 2005. Purely in accordance with the X Wave correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model, AN EL NINO IS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT IN 2005. But, the El Nino is not like an astrophysical cycle. There are some “missing” El Nino’s in the record of the 20^th century and we may have a missing one. HOWEVER, WE CAN’T BE CERTAIN UNTIL ABOUT APRIL OF 2005, which is about the latest month in which the syndrome has formed up during previous El Nino’s.

ADDITIONAL NOTE: The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS. Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year. So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC, ANTARCTIC, and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories of the climate shift.

GLOBAL WARMING

It is becoming obvious that we have a long term real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the latitudes. This climate shift is creating a growing environmental disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the Pacific Southwest. For the latest short review, see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 26, 2004 and the Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 18, 2004

It is now clear that a “wet winter” is well under way for almost all of North America and Mexico, even the normally dry desert areas in Arizona and New Mexico. This is already overcoming some of the effects of the drought. After a highly unusually wet Fall, moisture starved plants in the Mojave, Sonoran Desert Plain and along the Mogollon Foothills, are suddenly growing like crazy, pretending as if it were April. Many plants have bloomed during November and December and green grass, only rarely seen in lower elevations, is growing widely throughout Arizona.

At the moment it would be hard to think that the area is in a drought period, but it is very clear that the area, like much of the planet, is experiencing some pretty weird unseasonable climate patterns.

Where all this is going only the wind can tell...

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: More or less, the Pacific Southwest will probably begin to face the bitter but essential facts of life on a “Global Warming Earth”. More probable than not, global warming is inducing this current drought condition, which is about the worst drought in at least 400 years (which is estimated from the general life of the “old growth’ Ponderosa Pine which the drought continues to kill).

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED ABOUT THE LIKELY IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON HURRICANES–

For others comments on Global Warming,

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 25, 2004

For backgrounder information about Global Warming and how to look for it and correlate it to the real causes (solar influx and tectonic heat rifts in the bottoms of the oceans), see

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 14, 2004

IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY & MASS BEHAVIOR

AS OBSERVED LAST WEEK: As the sunspot counts decline and fail to peak for the planetary alignments, the impact on humans and the biosphere is declining progressively. Relatively more human activity will tend to be more driven by mental activity and spiritual connectivity than emotional impulses.

This does not favor the Imperial Faction and the Sorcerers in the Mass Broadcast Smokescreen Industry. The strength of the emotional associations which they rely upon to program mass behavior will have less and less power during the next four years.

This is going to be especially true with the four year jag of emotional associations around “patriotism”. During 2005, patriotism and martial ardor will become increasingly “old” among the young and the marginal. More and more soldiers will wake up and realize they have been on a “bender” which left them in a literal hellhole.

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above. Unfortunately there are many lags in reporting of information about quakes, thus neither the numbers of quakes nor the actual quakes discussed may be complete and accurate. Real time analysis of quake patterns is merely AN APPROXIMATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION. FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS, Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do. See Syzygy.com

Seismic activity during the past seven days was about the same as the prior seven days in overall frequency and magnitude of earthquakes. Only about ten to twelve quakes above 3.0 struck each day and despite a very strong Perigee New Moon Syzygy, there were only two quakes above 6.0. both on the Carib Plate, a 6.8 near the Cayman Islands and a 6.0 on the West Coast of El Salvador.

Continuing the trends of November, a goodly portion of the world’s seismic energy above 3.0 for the last seven days, was expressed along the Western edge of the Pacific Ocean Tectonic Plate, most especially along the Northern and Eastern edge of the Australian Tectonic Plate. But the Carib Plate was exceptionally active with several quakes, including the two largest quakes of the past seven days.

Shape-shifting produced only two modest quakes in the Great Rift of the Earth in the 5.0–5.4 m. No clear patterns and no major activity, except the shaking of the Caribbean, which is, next to Japan, just about the fastest moving portion of the Earth’s crust.

COSA NOSTRA DAMUS WATCH FOR SOUTH CAL.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: according to the Cosa Nostra Damus Prophecy, a major destructive quake could now strike at any time in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Hollywood, the Van Nuys Valley region, Bakersfield, and anywhere along the escarpment of the San Bernardino Mountains. This will be a follow up to the 4.9 quake which was felt in Coos Bay Oregon during July 2004. If a quake occurs near Santa Barbara, warnings will need to be given to Mexico City about the possibility of a major explosive event in Popo.

SLOW EARTH MOVEMENT WATCH

No reports to add this week

SHAPE-SHIFTERS WATCH

The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around the world increases. (Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 3.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are 4.5 plus in magnitude.) For additional information on Plate Tectonics and charts of the Great Rift of the Earth, go to Plate Tectonics Map

Two mild shape-shifter quakes struck in the Great Rift, a 5.0 in the extreme North of the Mid Atlantic Rise and a 5.4 along the Antarctic Tectonic Plate to the West of Chile in a segment of the Great Rift which is called the “Chile Rise”.

Magnitude 5.4 WEST CHILE RISE

Sunday, December 12, 2004 at 19:36:56 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_rybd.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 44.37S 82.14W

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region WEST CHILE RISE

Reference 695 km (430 miles) WSW of Castro, Chile

810 km (500 miles) W of Coihaique, Chile

900 km (560 miles) SW of Valdivia, Chile

1560 km (970 miles) SW of SANTIAGO, Chile

Magnitude 5.0 NORTH OF SVALBARD

Wednesday, December 15, 2004 at 06:47:05 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_sbaj.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 81.46N 4.02W

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region NORTH OF SVALBARD

Reference 225 km (140 miles) E of Nord, Greenland

885 km (550 miles) ENE of Alert, Nunavut, Canada

1440 km (900 miles) NNW of Tromso, Norway

2340 km (1460 miles) NNE of NUUK (GODTHAB), Greenland

NORTH AMERICAN WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude. Any numbers used in this section may or may not be accurate and may or may not reflect what will eventually appear in scientific databases. IMPORTANT NOTE: Most volcano monitoring sites appear to be screening out microquakes. A study needs to be done to establish how to reconcile various lists and databases because of this practice. The numbers below cannot be considered to be definitive totals and subtotals. We use them merely to observe relative fluctuations from week to week.

Seismic activity in North America overall for quakes in the range of 1.0 and over was generally up this last week in conformance with the syzygy window. Activity has basically randomized, except for the vigorous seismic activity in the St. Helens area, which is now producing 200 quakes or more per week above 1.0

US & ALASKA & ISLANDS --- 591

up from 509 the prior week

BIG ISLAND HAWAII (not including microswarms) --- 4

down from 6 during the prior week - these do not include the microquakes under Mauna Loa

CALIFORNIA – NEVADA --- 361

up from 356 last week, widely scattered in California and Nevada;

LONG VALLEY - MONO LAKE REGION -- 29

up from 26 last week.

PNW --- 249

UP from 170 last week, several widely scattered in Washington State, the overwhelming majority were directly related to St. Helens.

NE Cal - East of Klamath Falls, Oregon --- 1

down from 16 last week; these are almost certainly volcanic related, quakes have broken out here off and on during the past two years.

UTAH --- 36

up from 24 last week.

YELLOWSTONE WATCH

YELLOWSTONE -- 8 widely scattered

up from 7 last week

WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES

Magnitude 6.8 - CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION

2004 December 14 23:20:14 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/ussadb/

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

A strong earthquake occurred at 23:20:14 (UTC) on Tuesday, December 14, 2004. The magnitude 6.8 event has been located in the CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.)

Location 19.027°N, 81.337°W

Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program

Region CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION

Distances

30 km (20 miles) S of GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands

325 km (205 miles) ENE of Swan Island

355 km (220 miles) SSW of Cienfuegos, Cuba

755 km (470 miles) S of Miami, Florida

Magnitude 6.0 EL SALVADOR

Monday, December 13, 2004 at 15:23:41 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_rzaw.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 13.37N 89.51W

Depth 61.7 kilometers

Region EL SALVADOR

Reference 50 km (30 miles) SW of SAN SALVADOR, El Salvador

70 km (45 miles) S of Santa Ana, El Salvador

145 km (90 miles) W of San Miguel, El Salvador

1230 km (760 miles) ESE of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre. Or see “Breaking Volcano Eruption News”.

OBSERVABLE WORLD VOLCANIC ACTIVITY IS MUCH THE SAME AS THE PRIOR WEEK. A VIGOROUS ERUPTION CONTINUES ON MANAM A FEW MILES OFF-SHORE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA BUT MOST VOLCANOES ARE BARELY COOKING.

The Manam eruption follows the vigorous seismic activity and obvious tectonic plate motion of Australia which has been at an elevated rate during the past 60 days. (Manam on Manam Island can be said to be virtually on the very Northern-most edge of the Australian Tectonic Plate where is it over-riding the Pacific Plate and bucking up against the Philippine Plate).

Saint Helens is still building a dome relatively rapidly but activity was down sharply after a little pickup during the New Moon Perigee Syzygy. Colima is smoking lava and so is Etna, but they are no longer oozing lava like Kilauea and Erebus. A few other smokers are still at it in the South Seas, Africa, on Kamchatka Peninsula, and in Central America.

SAINT HELENS VOLCANO UPDATES

Text in this section is a condensation of direct quotes from online source:

CURRENT UPDATE supplied by the U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington; U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington

Wednesday, December 15, 2004 8:45 a.m. PST (1645 UTC)

MOUNT ST. HELENS UPDATE

Current status is Volcano Advisory (Alert Level 2); aviation color code ORANGE

Growth of the new lava dome inside the crater of Mount St. Helens continues, accompanied by low rates of seismicity, low emissions of steam and volcanic gases, and minor production of ash. During such eruptions, episodic changes in the level of activity can occur over days to months. The eruption could also intensify suddenly or with little warning and produce explosions that cause hazardous conditions within several miles of the crater and farther downwind. Small lahars could suddenly descend the Toutle River if triggered by heavy rain or by interaction of hot rocks with snow and ice. These lahars pose a negligible hazard below the Sediment Retention Structure (SRS) but could pose a hazard along the river channel upstream.

Potential ash hazards: Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that ash clouds that rise above the crater rim today would drift southeastward early in the day and east-southeastward later.

Recent observations: The mountain is clear today, but a heavy blanket of lowland fog prevents flights from leaving town. As a result, crews will not be in the field today. We are planning a full day’s work tomorrow, unless fog inhibits flying. Data from our field instruments suggest that relatively steady-state dome growth continues.

For additional information, background, images, and other graphics: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network at the University of Washington, and the USGS Northern California Seismic Network and Volcano Hazards Team in Menlo Park, California, monitor the major volcanoes in the Cascade Range of northern California, Oregon, and Washington. The U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Washington continue to monitor the situation closely and will issue additional updates and changes in alert

For additional information, background, images, and other graphics: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

For seismic information: http://www.pnsn.org/HELENS/welcome.html

For a definition of alert levels: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

Telephone recordings with the latest update on Mount St. Helens and phone contacts for additional information can be heard by calling: Media (360) 891-5180 General public (360) 891-5202

OTHER CASCADE VOLCANOES as of December Day 15 2004
Same source as above.

All other volcanoes in the Cascade Range are all at normal levels of background seismicity. These include Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, and Mount Adams in Washington State; Mount Hood, Mount Jefferson, Three Sisters, Newberry, and Crater Lake, in Oregon; and Medicine Lake, Mount Shasta, and Lassen Peak in northern California.

LATEST FORECAST FOR SAINT HELENS BY EC BULLETIN: Look to mid-month in December for increases in activity (see the syzygy periods defined above).

AS OBSERVED LAST WEEK: At least three of the active volcanoes on Kamchatka Peninsula are behaving in many ways very similar to St. Helens. Perhaps we shall see these four volcanoes, which are in the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire, flare up virtually simultaneously.

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY: Colima may be the closest “model” for how St. Helens may behave during the next few years. Both may erupt off and on with lava flows, as Colima does now from week to week, or with occasional ash plumes, then slowly stewing for weeks and months on end while merely steaming like nearly two dozen other volcanoes around the world, steaming until the next eruptive episode of ash and lava, which may last from a few days to several months. More probable than not, St. Helens will have sudden flare-offs and a few major ash plumes during the next year, but no major, explosive eruption which comes even close to its 1980 eruption. It will continue to sporadically emit steam and ash like Colima and Popo for the next few years. How much and how vigorously remains unpredictable.

There was additional seismic activity in St. Helens this past seven days as previously predicted. The amount of seismic activity was sharply up during the New Moon Perigee period. But no eruption has emerged and activity it not likely now. The next Perigee period, or any of the syzygy periods during 2005, especially in the period January through May, could bring increase eruptions.

Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of December Day 15 2004:

5 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment) (down one from last week)

48 on alert list (pre-cursors suggesting that activity may begin) (up two from last week)

22 on active list (seismic, gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (up two from last week)

Popo gave a 20 puff day yesterday, up from 14 last Tuesday. Centrapred reports for December Day 15 (17:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of Popocatepetl volcano recorded 20 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam, gas and in some times small amounts of ash. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At the moment of this report we can see the volcano with a small steam and gas emissions...In an aerial photograph taken on November 12 by SCT, subsidence is observed in the inner crater; an external lava dome at the bottom of the crater cannot be distinguished...Due to the low levels of activity shown in the past days, the scenarios consisting of explosions and ash emission are less probable.”

HIGHLY INTERESTING NEW PLATE TECTONICS RESOURCE:

Digital World Tectonic Activity Map (DTAM) - visualization tool that presents an actual representational view of global tectonics; created using current global datasets of seismicity, volcanism, and plate motions.

MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK

from Volcano Breaking News by Volcanologist John Seach

Volcano Travel: john@volcanolive.com

Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT + 10 hr)

Manam Volcano (Papua New Guinea)
4.10 S, 145.06 E, summit elevation 1807 m, Stratovolcano
Thursday 16th December 2004
Strong eruptions continue at Manam volcano in Papua New Guinea. At 5:44 am today (local time) there was an ash plume visible on satellite photos stretching 100 nautical miles WNW of the volcano. The ash reached 15,000 ft elevation and drifted at a rate of 10 knots. There has been some debate over whether the people of Manam needed to be evacuated. This uninformed debate doesn't help the situation. The situation is quite clear. There is no food left on the island to support the population. People cannot survive there under the current situation. There is over 1 metre depth of ash deposited on the island. This ash combined with heavy rains is producing dangerous mudflows. Mudflows have already washed 6 people into the sea. The volcanic activity is extremely dangerous, and has already resulted in some deaths before the evacuations took place. The role of the volcanologist is not to predict whether Manam will have larger eruptions or not. The main role in this situation is to foresee hazardous events. The whole Island is at risk of life threatening hazardous events, therefore evacuation of the island was justified. It is to be hoped that volcanic activity will decline over time, and the people can return to at least a partial resettlement of the island. The best case scenario might not be possible for up to 2 years due to the destruction of food gardens. There is also a less encouraging possibility, that Manam volcano has entered a period of much more dangerous activity, and return to the island will be not be possible for an extended period. One thing is certain, the evacuation of the Manam population has removed a large number of people from an extremely hazardous situation. After all, saving lives is the number one priority. Let's hope that the humanitarian relief can now deal with the situation. It would be distressing to think that deaths will occur on the mainland in the evacuation camps due to hunger and disease. More still needs to be done to ease the situation at the camps. This report is copyright John Seach.
More on Manam Volcano...
Volcanoes of Papua New Guinea...

Soputan Volcano (Indonesia)
1.11 N, 124.73 E, summit elevation 1784 m, stratovolcano
Monday 13th December 2004
Soputan volcano erupted at 5 am Sunday 12th December. The eruption sent high level ash NW to an altitude of 35,000 ft. A lower level ash cloud drifted NE. The nearby town of Tomohon, 10 kilometers northeast of Soputan, was covered in a thin layer of ash.
More on Soputan Volcano...

Standing Assessment: Likely, it is fair to conclude that the not-so-invisible Black Arts Nation, from HAARP to the Navy, to the Bush/Ashcroft prisons in Iraq/Afghanistan and Cuba, not to mention many other technologies, areas, and programs, are far out of ethical, moral, constitutional, and treaty control, as has been widely feared.

BLACK ARTS NATION

We are just on the front edge of “the outing”….

OR ARE WE?

Votescam 2004 should be big news and so should the prisoner abuse scandal, not to mention the growing international interest in pulling down Rumsfeld with indictments to eat his own words

But the auguries are not clear to me this past two weeks on how any of this is going, or even if any of this IS going anywhere during the next several months. If none of this goes anywhere, take it as a given, take it as a fact, that all is lost on the Republic and we have passed into in the deep twilight zone of a Fascist nightmare for which there may not be any electoral remedy…

…at least not while we are mired within the deep sorcery which the Mass Broadcast Media now casts in greater depth all around us. It is as if after the elections they turned up the volume of manipulation by at least a half turn of the knob.

Despite impeccable scientific reasoning, high caliber informed observers and investigators, the story of the stolen elections simply will not be told in America through the corporatized media.

Notice how the National Democrats, including almost all of those in Congress, ESPECIALLY JOHN KERRY AND JOHN EDWARDS, are completely silenced.

By their acts, said the good saint, ye shall know them. Doubtless, we are in very deep doodoo and, with few exceptions, the only things allowed on TV are a bunch of chickens clucking through the mire.

So go read Michael Moore’s latest missive at michaelmoore.com and realize that we are in a fight such as has not been seen since the 1930’s. Move over Nader, you will need to make a lot more room on the bus.

ECONOMY WATCH

STAND PAT ON THIS TILL THE END OF THE YEAR.

STAGFLATION IS BUILDING MOMENTUM FOR A CONSIDERABLE RISE DURING 2005.

Already the growth factors in the U.S. economy are running out of steam. There are still no signs of a general recovery, there have been many growing signs of a recession, and there is clear evidence of a stagflation dynamic setting in (rising prices with no growth). The stimulation produced by the hurricane destruction and increased war production is already slacking and that stimulation failed to produce a year-end surge in consumer spending.

COMMODITY PRICES WILL CLIMB RAPIDLY DURING 2005 TO CATCH UP WITH THE HUGE INCREASE IN ENERGY COSTS (UP SOME 30% THIS YEAR). This will generate a pernicious inflation in NORTH AMERICA.

FOR THE LAST UPDATED DISCUSSION:

click here for the EC Bulletin Update as of October 27, 2004

With the re-election of George Bush a completely new scenario for the next two years is needed. It is this: the main driving force of the economy will transition fully into an Imperial economy. It will be based on major militarization of the U.S. to AMP up Empire Building for general export. We may be as in Germany as in approximately 1934. During the 1930’s, while much of the world was mired in a deep depression, Germany, Italy, and Japan under the Fascists (Corporate National Plutocracy) prospered in a wave of tremendous prosperity for their workers. The Fascists terminated all external debt to the international banks and recycled their currencies highly astutely without the need to finance debt. That is why Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese Militarists were so fervently supported.

A massive empire building drive to export “Order” over the greater portion of the world’s petroleum reserves will shore up the value of the petro dollar quite nicely and preserve its hegemony well through the “peak oil” period. Huge expenditures on armaments should provide a continuing stimulus of the North American economy, enough to at least keep it gimping along while the Empire is consolidated.

The eventual eclipse of well oil poses no long term problem. Only naïve analysts are worried. Once oil supply is seriously declining and oil prices can be maintained above $80/barrel, some people in the oil industry, including David Rockefeller, understand the means of “growing” your own. They have held the secrets of this for some 23 years.

THE ONLY BUMP ON THE ROAD TO THE IMPERIAL ECONOMY is “global warming”. This is bringing people into other solutions than the use of oil. Is this not a course of development the cabals of great wealth in America must resist as strongly as they can? If this is correct, we would expect that a great political struggle will be waged on both sides of this global warming issue. We should expect to see that the Republicrats will resist encouraging a replacement for oil to the very bitter end. Without dominance over oil, their feudalized world will dissolve away from them.

FOR THE LASTEST DETAILED DISCUSSION

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

FOR THE STAND PAT ECONOMIC PREDICTION FOR THIS YEAR,

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of May 12 2004

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES

The bubble is rising steadily. The DJI finished December Day 15 at 10,691.45, up about $200 from December 8 at 10,494.23.

DON’T EXPECT ANYTHING HIGHER THIS YEAR. It will hover here and then fall for a while in January until the market absorbs the psychological shock of the somewhat depressed Christmas Season which is already quite evident.

You can now buy from some companies on ultra low payments who will not charge you any interest for two years. That is a sign of retail desperation.

The rise in oil futures this week, plus Greenspan’s increase in the Prime Lending Rate, will constrain the market, then a small dip will be felt in January as retailers bemoan how little profit they actually made.

THIS IS STILL GOOD: AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: “Propredictions” has revised their psychic forecasts to correspond more or less with mine. They predict a soft DJI around 10,000 for the remainder of 2004 However, unlike mine to date, they predict a rise to 11,000 during the first quarter of January 2005. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS IS ON TARGET.

THIS COULD HAPPEN WITH THE PUSHING OF THE SOCIAL SECURITY STOCK SCHEME. EVERYBODY WILL HOLD THEIR CURRENT STOCK POSITIONS HOPING FOR A BRISK UPTURN IN THE MARKET.

Oil prices are NOT soft, as I stupidly suggested last week. But WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY – WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR DRIVING OIL UP IN PRICE AND ACCELERATING THE DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR.

The dollar of course is a major factor. As the dollar drops AND the stock values remain constant, U.S. stocks will become suddenly cheaper for foreign investors and they may begin to convert to buy U.S. stocks. This also will firm up values when it occurs, but I have no idea where the conversion points are.

DIDN’T THIS HAPPEN THIS PAST FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER? The dollar firmed up and rose in value slightly while the price of oil sagged slightly. Stocks dropped slightly in value as well, but that is probably based on the already evident poor showing of Christmas retail sales. Profits in the major corporations will be tighter than hoped, reducing the speculative value of the stocks.

This is all a complex equation which could go sideways at any moment. THE MAIN PROVISO IS AL QAEDA. When they strike in the U.S. again, they will trump all else.

THE OTHER MAIN PROVISO: The main weakness in the international economy is that THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IS SO INCOMPETENT THAT NO INTERNATIONAL ACTOR KNOWS HOW TO BE RATIONAL AND MAKE REAL DECISIONS. EVERYTHING IS HEDGED AND HIDDEN. All news on the war fronts is terrible. Iraq recovery has essentially collapsed. Real war is heating up. The insurgents and terrorists now are just playing hide and seek in Iraq, the more the American Bull rushes them, the less energy it has to remain in the game. Bush’s support is crumbling and he couldn’t do a deal internationally if his life depended upon it.

EURO WATCH - THE DOLLAR SINKING AGAIN

AS PREDICTED RELATED TO OIL PRICES: The dollar closed today at 0.7458 down almost a half of a penny from 0.7504 per euro a week ago. The dollar lost about six cents during the past 60 days but with the rise in interest rates and the decrease in oil prices, it is clear that the value of the dollar was being stabilized - sort of...but it remains dicey…

“As oil goes up, the dollar will tend also to go down against the Euro.”

Don’t expect much drop for the remainder of the year. The dollar may actually gain a bit for a brief time, but not much and not for long.

As the article below strongly hints, the price of oil is likely to climb again during the next couple of months. Thus the dollar will weaken some more but this time probably without any rise in stock values.

And thus in general, expect a steady if slow creep of prices upward all through 2005, with faster relative increases for some basic commodities and imports to reflect rapidly rising international costs, which will still accelerate in response to the rise in energy costs this past six months.

MUST READ: “The Dollar Panics” in “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, which lays out the dynamics of what is happening

LATEST OVERVIEW ON OIL:

For the second week in a row, the news is dominated by strong signals that oil prices will continue to rise during the first quarter of next year. It does not look like retail prices will ever again be South of where they currently are. These brisk ups in the market suggest a pretty vigorous STAGFLATION for 2005.

Associated Press

Oil Futures Rise Above $44 a Barrel

Wednesday December 15, 4:09 pm ET

By Brad Foss, AP Business Writer

Oil Futures Climb Above $44 a Barrel As Data Shows Drop in U.S. Crude, Heating Oil Supplies

Oil futures prices bolted 5 percent higher Wednesday, climbing above $44 a barrel after U.S. government data showed a slight decline in crude and heating oil supplies as colder weather in the Northeast drove up fuel demand.

With the official start of winter less than a week away in the Northern Hemisphere, traders focused on the tight supply of heating oil and sent crude futures $2.37 higher to $44.19 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Heating oil futures surged 8.39 cents to $1.3884 per gallon.

"The weather's getting colder and inventories are still low," said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in New York, where the temperature dipped below 32 degrees on Wednesday. "So, you're getting a recovery" in oil prices, which are down about 20 percent from the late October high above $55 a barrel.

Inventories of crude oil in the United States are 6 percent above year ago levels even though the Energy Department reported Wednesday that supplies fell by 100,000 barrels last week to 293.8 million barrels.

However, the nation's supply of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil and diesel, is 12 percent below year ago levels, unchanged from a week ago at 119.3 million barrels. High-sulfur distillates typically used for heating oil declined by 100,000 barrels to 49.9 million barrels, or 13 percent lower than a year ago.

Carl Larry, associate director of energy futures at Barclays Capital in New York, said it is unlikely that distillate fuel stocks will grow in the weeks ahead, assuming normal winter weather patterns prevail. Distillate fuel demand has already been 7 percent higher than a year ago over the past four weeks due to rising consumption of diesel and jet fuel, Larry said.

Another "eyebrow raising" detail in the Energy Department report was data showing strong demand for gasoline despite high pump prices. Daily gasoline demand averaged 9.1 million barrels over the past four weeks, up 2 percent from a year ago.

January gasoline futures climbed 5.18 cents to $1.617 per gallon on Nymex. The average retail price of gasoline last week was $1.85 per gallon.

Wednesday's rally in energy prices may also have been influenced by expectations that, as colder weather drives up home-heating demand in the United States this week, the government's next supply report could show even steeper drops in heating oil inventories.

Traders "are building into the price an expectation of a decline next week," said Ed Silliere, vice president of technical research at Energy Merchant Corp. in New York.

Previously rising U.S. inventories of crude oil and distillate fuel had been a factor in lowering crude futures by about $13 per barrel from the record closing high of $55.17 in late October.

In an effort to prevent further declines in the price of oil, particularly next spring when a seasonal dropoff in demand is expected, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to rein in its production by 1 million barrels a day beginning next month.

Bentz said OPEC's decision may have helped prices from falling below $40 a barrel, setting the stage for this week's move higher.

"Until the inventories can be replenished, there's still potential for the market to recover on the back of the heating oil strength," Bentz said.

Energy markets have been jittery all year over potential production disruptions in key producers Nigeria, Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Iraq said it would deploy more troops to guard oil pipelines where saboteurs looking to disrupt supplies struck 27 times in November. Elsewhere, embattled Russian oil giant Yukos filed for bankruptcy in the United States in an eleventh-hour attempt to stop the weekend auction of its main subsidiary.

"All those issues that were there three months ago when we were at $55 a barrel are still there," Bentz said.

In London, Brent crude futures soared $2.97 to $42.22 per barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.

In other Nymex trading, natural gas futures were 9.7 cents lower at $7.236 per 1,000 cubic feet.

SURVIVAL WATCH

FOOD WATCH

For latest info, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of July 7, 2004

JOB WATCH

Any aspect of the construction and home products industry is hot.

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, who is now widely described as the biggest corporate swindler of all time, is still scott free. (ONE OF THE WORST ECONOMIC TERRORISTS OF ALL TIME). But now finally after waiting for two or so years, Lay has been indicted. Notice the timing, near the end of the first term of the Bush Administration. At this time I will hazard the guess that he will be pardoned by Bush during the final days of his administration, probably December of this year. ANOTHER NEARLY EQUAL SIGN OF THE TIMES: The lawyers who have been settling the Enron collapse for all parties, are billing the remaining net assets of Enron for approximately $1 billion for their services. This is a new heavenly-ordained definition for the term Chutzpah. I CALL IT CLASS ECONOMIC TERRORISM.

POLITICAL WATCH

For general overview on the Tragedy in Iraq and the Bureau-Political Civil War in Washington DC, I highly recommend Tom Dispatch.

For general background: see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 7 2004

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT IS ANYONE’S GUESS. One can turn pessimistic one week, then optimistic the next day…

At the moment it looks like the bottom line I posited last week

for the “lowest possible outcome” is marching along smartly onto the pages of history:

“The lowest possible outcome - more probable than not....another four years of political struggle, bitterness, the loss of more political and individual rights, continued declassing and economic deterioration, and a growing general civil upheaval which takes many forms…in the midst of a nation which is virtually ostracized from most of the remainder of the world…and the forces of Jihad reaching greater ascendancy in the Middle-East.”

The highest possible outcome?

“…stalemating the Imperial Faction with a Kerry amidst a tragic ending to the horrible blunders in Iraq. Then a progressive downward economic spiral. But maybe Kerry deserves a better fate?”

One keeps wanting to hope that “American politics has never been so unpredictable” but it is looking more and more like it is entirely too predictable.

Many who would will a great change are depressing in deep pessimism. Despite a year of exposing the grave crimes of the Imperial Faction and the incompetence of their President, a majority of Americans WHO VOTE refuse to believe that conditions have become so corrupt. They insist on drawing their blinders more tightly around their favorite illusions.

In this they are so well aided and abetted by a crony Mass Broadcast Media which has chosen to abjectly shill the fantasies and delusions of an upper class bubble of “attitude” - domination.

Thus, for a time yet, important truths must remain an orphan in the street. Currently the orphan is WANDERING THE STREETS OF OHIO AND FLORIDA, AND OCCASSIONALLY IN A DOZEN OTHER LOCALES, with VOTESCAM 2004 written across its blazer.

It remains possible that Votescam 2004 could break out a line investigation which, like Watergate 1972, leads to the highest offices and forces a complete change in who is sitting in the White House. The vote scams were done so brazenly and so amateurishly, they STINK, OBVIOUSLY. THIS IS CRUCIAL. In a multitude of places and ways, the essential immaturity and incompetent greed of the Imperial Faction and its allies break above the surface of Illusion to demonstrate extensive crookery in the election process. Dozens of stories and professionally attested documentation now floods the iway, providing circulation to tens of millions of people around the world in a direct, honest, unfiltered way which was IMPOSSIBLE TO EVEN CONCEIVE TEN YEARS AGO.

We are very lucky the cohorts of the Imperial Faction have been so brazen. They have alerted the world and half the Americans to the existence of a malevolent class of somewhat amateurish crooks within the heart of the current ruling political cliques. This may make all the difference in the world. What a fabulous test of the new Iway media.

The people assembled, so to speak, get to directly assay the evidence. FOR GOD’S SAKE GO FOR IT. HISTORY IS TWISTING IN THE BREEZE, GO GIVE IT A TURN IN THE DIRECTION OF HONESTY AND INTEGRITY.

This is the only way it will happen. AS SHOULD BE OBVIOUS, CNN HAS TAKEN A SUDDEN TURN INTO THE SCAMMING ARMS OF THE RIGHT WING, AND TWO OTHER MAJOR BROADCAST NEWS ORGANIZATIONS WILL BE CHANGING OVER THEIR TOP MANAGEMENT...and will be especially vulnerable to plutocratic manipulation by the top connivers in the publishing suites. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MANY BRAVE SOULS IN THE PRINT MEDIA, IT IS FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE BROADCAST MEDIA WILL NOT TOUCH (EXCEPT TO DISCREDIT WITH “ATTITUDE”) THE GROWING LEGION OF LEGAL ACTIONS RELATED TO VOTE STEALING, CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY, WAR CRIMES, WAR PROFITEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL RAPE, OR MANY OTHER ISSUES.

THE PEOPLE THROUGH THE IWAY WILL HAVE TO PUSH THE ISSUES so that they eventually will break into the Courts and eventually Grand Jury proceedings will be undertaken related to Votescam 2004.

This will not be easy. The courts are inclined to uphold the Republicans.

Nixon’s thieving trickery and lies were ultimately broken by Congress, when finally leading Republicans realized that they couldn’t hide away his crookedness and obvious abuse of power.

Bush may well be broken by the much larger VOTESCAM scandal, but it will not be through the Congress at first. It is now too corrupted and unresponsive to people and media pressures. Like small children and many New Age Gurus of Positive Stinking, today’s vastly over-privileged political class in power believes that all you have to do is believe in your exalted status and all the problems will go away to hang out with the homeless.

THE COURTS AND GRAND JURY PROSECUTIONS IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT JURISDICTIONS OFFER THE MOST DYNAMIC MECHANISM FOR BREAKING VOTESCAM 2004. As this unfolds, which may take the greater part of 2005, the Republican Party may eventually disintegrate with old conservatives and neocom factions coming out into open warfare with each other. Finally in a convulsive political month, if this comes to pass, the old-fashioned Conservatives will bolt the Republican party as it is currently constituted and align with Democrats to oust the most hated and crooked administration in U.S. History by invoking impeachment proceedings.

AT ALL COSTS THE PEOPLE MUST NOT ALLOW THEMSELVES TO BE PERSUADED THAT FEDERAL COURTS PREVAIL. UNDER THE TRADITIONAL FEDERALISM STRUCTURE, THERE IS NO COMPELLING RIGHT OF FEDERAL COURTS TO DICTATE OUTCOMES IN THIS MATTER. ONLY LOCAL COURTS AND LEGISLATURES RULE THE VOTING ISSUE, EXCEPT IN REGARD TO CIVIL RIGHTS OF MINORITIES. BUT THIS IS TRUMPED BY THE BLACKS, WHO WILL BE THE PRIMARY LITIGANTS FOR FORCING RECOUNTS AND NEW ELECTIONS IN OHIO AND FLORIDA.

GO FOR IT REVEREND JESSE JACKSON. THIS IS YOUR MOMENT IS HISTORY. SEIZE IT. Though it is important to try to block the certification of the electors in the crooked states of Ohio and Florida, failure to do so does not end the matter. Even if Bush is duly sworn in, the criminal issues of fraud can continue to mount and disintegrate American governance. There are many viable battlegrounds. If a solid case of evidence can be presented to the world in the face of the naked refusal of American political institutions to address the fraud, any group of Americans will be within their rights to request World Opinion, through the U.N. or other forums, to mount international pressure against this fraudulently elected President.

Is such likely? Don’t ask me, but many would prefer such a situation. It is possible, and the fraud involved would entirely justify stalemating the electoral process as a prelude to shaking the crap out to make it right. The U.S. would be better off without a President than continue such massive crony corruption in an atmosphere of universal loss of confidence in the honesty of the vote and the competence of its military expeditions abroad.

Under such conditions, honest men eventually must end up becoming criminals to protect themselves from the incursions of crooked government and crooked lawyers. Far better to have no such government which can function to persecute honest people.

Interestingly enough, a psychic predicted this stalemate some fifteen years ago….a time of complete electoral stalemate which was only resolved with agreement to elect an entirely different person. Nominally based on a Nostradamus quatrain, the psychic reader claimed to talk directly with Nostradamus to receive an authoritative translation and interpretation of many of Nostradamus’ predictions which refer to our time. I have previously shied away from Nostradamus, but this psychic’s work with Nostradamus has some very credible components to it, not least of which is that the conditions and revelations of fact during the past five years were eerily predicted 15 years ago through this person. Some key notes to the predicted stalemate: an embattled President facing “Watergate” type suspicions of subterfuge, an election so blockaded by manipulations, intense ideological stalemate, and lawyers, that the Congress would have to meet to try to resolve the deadlock, ultimately selecting a compromise “third” individual….

…sound familiar to anyone?

Was 2000 just the prolegomena to the coming deadlock?

PROJECTED POLITICAL FUTURES: Uncertainty for two more weeks, possibly for several more months amidst rapidly deteriorating conditions.

A new media now arrives, floating down the river Iway, and with it comes a new consciousness of the world and the lies which have driven so much of the past 50 years….

From this, the future will arise as the old world slowly collapses.

All else is fluid, in transition. Thank God Almighty!

THE STRATEGIC SITUATION – Final Synopsis
For predictions related to the mess in Palestine, the Middle East, and the Bush political era.

STAND PAT ON THIS ASSESSMENT FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS

CONDITIONS IN IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST

ARE IN EXTREME CRISIS

The entire world continues to witness the American impasse in Iraq. American policy and management are now clearly on trajectory to a catastrophic loss.

The damage is done, the strategic condition is fatal, Iraq and the entire Middle East is lost. Iraq is the fatal Achilles Heel of the American Empire. Iraq, like Iran, is totally lost to Western influences and the infections from this disastrous invasion will spread poisons throughout the world body politic. The situation condemns the Americans to a generation of internal conflict and a steep collective bankruptcy. The next Democratic administration in the U.S. will have an enormous job just to get rid of all the SS stooges who will have been embedded into the fabric of American society by the time of the collapse of the Bush Junta.

Despite the looming loss and collapse, we can already see at work the aggressive moves of the Imperial Faction to ready the U.S. for another round of Imperial adventurism. A long, deepening affair with some aspects of Fascist tyranny is more probable than not if the Bush Administration cannot be seriously derailed and/or blockaded with paralysis.

A major consolidation of power is now underway. The new CIA director, who is assuming de facto control of all U.S. intelligence, regardless of the so-called hung-up reform legislation, was a virtual classmate of George Herbert Walker Bush at Yale. His career is the history of the agency, hired out of Skull and Crossbones, one of the early agents in the New National Security State which was created at the same time as the state of Israel.

Porter Goss is George Herbert Walker Bush’s old Skull and Bones Yale frat buddy from way back in the days when the CIA WAS Skull and Bones…who do you think is now in fact running the CIA once again? People who believe in extreme secrecy in very discrete service to the inner circles of a small aristocracy of entitled people. If you think we are shut out now, you t’aint seen nuttin yet.

Thus in certain ways, “Poppy” is back in the saddle again…the Bush Crime Family, its plutocratic allies, and the Imperial Faction is closer than ever with dominance over the CIA, NSA, the Pentagon, the FBI. What is government, what is corporate, and what is Bush Crime Family is no longer discernible. And still invisible are the great fortunes who sponsor many of the institutions and political/ media foot soldiers who are advancing the cause of fascist plutocracy everywhere.

A major turnover in the CIA will soon stuff it with Yassha Men. And the same fate is in store for the State Department under the diktat of Condeleeza Rice. The international competence of the U.S., whatever is left, will disintegrate rapidly during the next four years and it will in fact move operationally a long way toward being a corrupt Banana Republic ruled by small circles of corrupt, cynical estate managers.

Meanwhile the semi-tragic Powell falls by the wayside and all of the powers of the State Department are brought directly into the control of the Imperial Faction through the appointment of Condeleeza Rice as Secretary Of State. The one true act of service Powell could give the country and the world would be to reveal the truth of the past 40 years, beginning with his conduct in Vietnam while white-washing My Lai. If the fool could find it in himself to fall on his sword he could find a true grace in history’s remembrance. But I suspect that the man is too conflicted in bogus cants to get anything right. He will leave the stage of history as a thoroughly discredited liar and fool, even if he retains a good enough schtick to fleece right wing evangelical and business groups for tens of thousands per “motivational” speech.

The departure of Ashcroft is extremely bad news. Ashcroft was crazy but his replacement is insane, a deep core sociopath who finds nothing to dislike in Nazi-like rationales for hidden torture chambers and Soviet style gulags in which people disappear forever. Shades of the Gestapo and Heinrich Himmler, now Bush gives us for Attorney General the man who wrote the legal doctrines for Al Ghraib, Gitmo, and other sociopath hidey holes for nouveau torture.

The U.S. is in desperate difficulty with such a man in command of the laws. In the mind of such an obvious sociopath, no law means anything…

As these prime players and others are moved into position, the Imperial Faction consolidates its control with or without the understanding of George Bush. With only slight luck, they will be able to appoint “made men” into the Supreme Court and complete a generational seizure of all aspects of the U.S. Government.

Working with their key allies in the Black Arts Nation and the hidden cabal of plutocratic families on the East Coast which predominately controls it, inner groups will be able to employ even more aggressively their gangs of right wing street enforcers to intimidate independent media and naive people at various non-violent demonstrations while creating bogus “violence” to bad rap the demonstrators. As well, they will have even greater ability to shut off the political careers of upstarts who promote the wrong issues and agendas.

And if they get away with the theft of the current elections by hacking the voting machines and the electronic process of tabulating the totals together, it is doubtful that most crucial elections in the country will ever be “won” by the majority of people again.

All in all, the year 2004/05 is parallel with approx. 1934/35. The fascist nightmare in America is far closer than anyone dares to believe. History branches this next two years PERMANENTLY. And the choice is currently too close to call but the game is surely rigged.

As previously observed, as a consequence of the widely unexpected Bush reelection, several massive reaction waves have been set in motion. One of the most important reaction waves is among political state policymakers throughout Eurasia. The Eurasian Super-Coalition will form up rapidly this next year and progressively isolate the U.S., Bush, and the Dollar. This consolidation will be largely silent, conversations of understanding among many leaders in many states who wish, entirely reasonably, to isolate themselves from involvement in the international tragedies being engineered in the U.S. This will make the coming economic collapse in the U.S. so much deeper, precipitous, more bitter. What Americans have not yet understood in Kansas is that the world does not NEED America.

…Not since the production of technology was outsourced. (You dumb clucks)…

Another reaction wave is at a more fundamental human level. The increasing violence in Iraq continues to reveal that American military forces are inadequate to the task of conducting the proper kind of warfare and national pacification. An arrogant “superpower” elite sits in Washington DC and believes in its doctrines of massive, overpowering force, shock and awe tactics, and Proactive Aggression Dominance and are simply oblivious to the increasing feeling of disgust and loathing which is mounting in the world. HUGE NUMBERS OF people worldwide are beginning to realize that the modern face of Americas’ military and internal police forces look more and more like Hitler’s Germany.

Falluja, which the Sorcerers in the Mass Broadcast Media tout as a great victory, provides little sense of confidence. There cannot be said to be a victory when one successfully slaughters all the fish in a barrel with a machine gun. One speaks in terms of butchery, not victory. Scenes from Falluja appear to reveal that the U.S. military still confuses saving a city with destroying it…more and more glimpses of MyLai can be seen as hyped up, drugged up, hair-trigger soldiers shoot at anything that moves…more and more the ceaseless propaganda phrases of surgical strikes, precision targeting, highly disciplined, highly skilled operations can be seen largely for what it is, wishful thinking by incompetent pipe-dreamers in Washington DC which ends up as unmitigated horseshit in operation.

And every soldier past and present knows and understands….sadly some of them are so confused they think they like it.

It most certainly seems fair to conclude that a discredited Army engagement doctrine pounds away at densely settled urban zones with exceptional violence. The results please no one and simply increase the polarization of world dynamic forces into greater opposition. The time is quickly coming when the American military simply is not going to be welcome anywhere at any level in most of the world.

And the answer for all this is at least partly obvious, an extremely self-centered piker too cheap to do real war…using high explosives and extreme fear (instead of skill and people) to pacify and occupy a country without a clue to how real men have successfully conducted pacification operations in peace among many peoples in many places and times.

But the damage is done…

Iraq is the fatal Achilles Heel of the American Empire. The country is lost and the infections from it which have set into the world body politic condemn the Americans to a generation of internal conflict and a steep collective bankruptcy. The next Democratic administration in the U.S. will have an enormous job just to get rid of all the SS stooges who will have been embedded into the fabric of American society.

THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO PEACE IN IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST ARE THE AMERICANS AND THEIR STUPID AND INEFFECTUAL INTERFERENCES which are about as successful as Israel’s efforts to make peace. America seems utterly highjacked by Zionist agents but people are still too timid to talk about it.

Bottom line:

All the King’s Men got mugged by a swindling crook named Chalabi, who sold the New World Order Emperor the equivalent of the Brooklyn Bridge – the mythical Weapons of Mass Destruction.

To claim this prize, the Mass Broadcast Media began beating the war drums and the “Good German” Americans goose-stepped to war. One thousand three hundred and counting Americans died in vain, along with some 100,000 Iraqis, and some 10,000 U.S. soldiers got maimed for life, with unknown numbers of Iraqi’s wandering around mutilated in some fashion. And then there is the DU poisoning. God only knows how many tens of thousands of people are getting poisoned for life by the depleted uranium.

As things stand now, sometime in 2005, Americans will beat a hasty retreat, under the pretext of some contrived imaginary political fig leaf, and we will see the last helicopter evacuation from Iraq...finishing the historical parallel of this Tragedy with the Tragedy of Vietnam.

If so, it will be the beginning of the end of both the American Century and the U.S. Constitution. A generation of upheaval and grievous conflict will ensue before the Americans can repose themselves and their society on a sounder basis.

For the Iraqis, likely Iraq may cease to exist. The Kurds may go their way, while the Sunnis and Shias struggle over the future of Baghdad, perhaps reducing it to the Beirut of the early 1980’s . In the end Iran’s mullahs may provide the Shias the margin to take control. And thus the stage may be set for the emergence during the next few years of the one long foretold by Nostradamus.

FOR THE LASTEST SUMMARY BRIEFING ON THE SITUATION AND THE WAY OUT OF IT, GO TO

“A Letter To The Generals: Saving Iraq and Saving The U.S.”

FOR A PDF VERSION, CLICK HERE.

PLEASE NOTE: IT IS FAR TOO LATE FOR AMERICANS TO SOLVE THE IMPASSE IN IRAQ. THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE OF SOME HELP TO IRAQI SHIA WHO CAN PROVIDE THE MORAL FORCE TO REUNIFY IRAQ ON THE ROAD TO PEACE AND JUSTICE.

HERE IS THE MAIN HOPE OUT OF THIS STRATEGIC IMPASSE:

AN AUTHENTIC ISLAMIC MORAL AUTHORITY IS ARISING AND IS BEGINNING TO FORGE A COALITION TO UNIFY IRAQ AND BRING CIRCUMSTANCES TO THE POINT WHERE THE AMERICANS CAN BE ASKED TO LEAVE. QUICKLY.

THE ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE FORGED BY JANUARY. MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT, THE MULLAHS WILL ARRANGE THE ELECTION OF A GOVERNMENT WHICH ASSERTS ITS SOVEREIGNTY AND ASKS THE U.S. TO LEAVE VIRTUALLY IMMEDIATELY.

PASS THE WORD: THIS IS HOW IT WILL END IN IRAQ,

Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at mwman@earthlink.net
Master Website Index is at: http://www.michaelmandeville.com

Author of several books, including: "Return of the Phoenix" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/phoenix/phoenix.htm
and "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006.htm
_________________________________________________
To order any books or products go to
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/catalog/cosmic_cat.htm

To check the latest status of the Change In The Earth and the location of Earth's Axis, go to:
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/

BULLETIN ARCHIVE | CHANGES HOME PAGE | SUBSCRIBE | UNSUBCRIBE | QUEST GROUP

To access the WATCHES on the Earth which are summarized in each Weekly Update, click here to go to the website and select the current date. Or use this URL: http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins .

To access the Yahoo Archive and Membership Control Site, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/earthchange-bulletins
To subscribe to the Earth Change Bulletins:
mailto:earthchange-bulletins-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Unsubscribe by clicking on:
mailto:earthchange-bulletins-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com

To contact the publisher: MetaSyn Media at www.MichaelMandeville.com

Watch the possible wrap of URLs onto a second line - any segment which dangles on a second line must be copied manually into the browser after clicking on the first line.

The Earth Changes Bulletin Updates are usually published in a brief form and distributed free on a weekly basis. Occasionally Earth Changes Special Reports are produced on timely topics. This is Shareware Information, if it is useful to you, please help support it by making a VOLUNTARY donation (you will not be denied access). A donation of $2.00 per month or $24.00 per year is requested to sustain this work and additional benefits may be available. To provide a mechanism for making a donation, a donation request
will be emailed to new subscribers and periodically to all subscribers via Paypal, or click now on this URL to make your donation.
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/catalog/donations_for_ec_bulletins.htm

Conversation about the Earth Changes:
mailto:phoenix-quest-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
or you may unsubscribe by mailto:phoenix-quest-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
To connect with the on-going Phoenix Quest, go to:
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/quest/