Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of February 26 2003
You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

This update is keyed to the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar. The framework for understanding these updates and much of the current status information is maintained in capsule form in the Almanac at the locations cited in the text of this Update.

The good news for the geophysical vortex continues. Solar Cycle 23 continues to wane rapidly. The sunspot count is hovering about 40 to 50 and is likely to stay in that territory except for narrow, modest sized peaks of a few days just prior to planetary alignments. El Nino never emerged, the hot water is all gone, rain and snowfall along the Pacific Coast is normalizing, the drought patterns in North American and thoughout Eurasia are fully broken. Spring should be NORMAL (can you remember what they were like?)

For the geopolitical front….everything remains unsettled yet the precipitous drop in sunspot numbers has clearly stalled the Imperial Faction. Sanity is setting in, inflamed reactions in support of war are more easily seen for what they are and they look ludicrous. Overblown rhetorical excesses behind the “vaporware” which proves the presence of nasty weapons in Iraq are widely perceived as beneath the dignity of those who are asked to listen to it. When and where ever asked, the people of the world are frankly telling themselves and everyone else, hell no, we don’t want another war which puts at risk tens or hundreds of thousands of Iraqi women and children, not on the baloney the Imperial Faction is trotting down the street. Can the French-German-Russian Initiative, which China supports, assume the mantle of leadership and sideline the ambitions of the Imperial Faction? Baring perverse manipulation, it is looking more and more that this is the likely outcome.

Spiritual sources inform me that the world is very much as it feels right now – everything is in flux, the socio-world totters and could fall along many different lines of motion. Prayer, ideas, thought, and intent matter more than ever and can have great power in altering the course of things. A plan is needed, some voices say, a plan put forward by an Arab coalition to break the impasse.

American Mass Broadcast Media and right wingnut shock troop sources are currently clutching at the hope that some how the French, Germans, Russians, and Chinese can be schmoozed into not vetoing what the U.S. wants to do. What the wingnuts can’t get through their thick skulls is that they are like a 15 year old nerd with pimples, dandruf, and bad breath trying to steal a smooch at a dance party. The more assertively he tries, the more repulsive he is and the more certain it is that he will go home frustrated. At this point, it is more likely than not that all of the Eurasian countries will veto Bush’s efforts as a block.

The American Imperial Faction will bellicosely wail that the United Nations has failed. Most of the rest of the world will believe that the United Nations has succeeded.

Thank God, and KEEP PRAYING AS COPIOUSLY AS THE STARS IN THE HEAVENS. Our best hope at the moment lies in encouraging the French, Germans, and Russians to vigorously take over international leadership on the issue of Iraq’s weapons. For the time being, our fate still hangs on the precipice of these fundamental choices as we stare bleakly into the unknown abyss of the next few weeks. The danger is still quite high. The choices of the next few weeks may bring the easy restoration of harmony with Hussein contained in his cage for the foreseeable future, or chaos may erupt and fragment all peoples and nations in a long process of radical re-alignment of the nations. Let us hope that Bush can find himself happy to follow the lead of Feinstein and France to stand on unified ground. If not, the year will turn ugly and so will much of the next several years.

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Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.

For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

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HOUSE-KEEPING NOTE:

Take a look at the Earth Monitor front page
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor
If anyone has any suggestions about evolving these pages, now is a good time as I devote a few minutes each day to revising menus and adding new links.

INTERNET WATCH

The internet is under attack as never before.

TODAY, after a week of weird performance, Yahoo remains quite sluggish in its response and the servers for many institutions are much slower than normal.

A whole new generation of cyber warfare is ramping up. People who have been active on the internet in email discussion groups are finding that they have been cybercloned. Cyber thugs have evolved their programs and worms to mimic real people sending increasingly plausible random messages to people we normally communicate with. Inside these messages are file attachments which contain the worms.

So, the day of sending file attachments spontaneously is over. I will never send any out anymore unless I have pre-arranged something with a specific individual. If you find file attachments in an email from me which appears to have been sent spontaneously:

DO NOT OPEN IT

IT IS A CYBER DOUBLE OR CLONE from the cyber thugs.

PLEASE DO NOT SEND ME FILE ATTACHEMENTS UNLESS YOU HAVE MADE A PRIOR AGREEMENT WITH ME. I WILL NO LONGER OPEN ANY FILES WHATSOEVER FROM PEOPLE ON AN IMPULSE BASIS. ALL ATTACHMENTS HAVE TO BE PRE-ARRANGED.

As mentioned earlier this week, email traffic got severely disrupted the past week and I expect frankly that this situation will get even worse during the next 30 days. Expect without surprise a major service disruption very soon.

POLAR MOTION
What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

The X Wave in Chandler’s Wobble has passed its annual MIN. It will now head toward the last annual MAX in this current 6.5 year cycle of Chandler’s Wobble. This annual MAX should be achieved about the beginning of October of this year. This MAX will define the MAX for this entire current cycle. When this 6.5 year MAX point is achieved, the average location of the North Spin Axis can be computed and thus the current rate of shifting in the location of the wobbling pole can also be computed by comparison with the previous cycles.

AS REPORTED LAST SEVERAL WEEKS: Steady as she goes. As reported for the past few months, the current track of Chandler’s Wobble (the observed locations of the spin axis at the North Pole) continues to show an acceleration in the shifting of the average location of the spin axis. The recent acceleration may be in the approximate range of 6.5%. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THIS DISPLACEMENT, SEE THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN OF NOVEMBER 13, 2002.

To see the current graph of polar motion, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm
Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

For additional current details:
see http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/currentconditions.htm#polarmotion

FOR NEWBIES: The vortex tectonics paradigm of the earth holds that polar motion in the 6.5 year wobble cycle (Chandler’s) creates the major stress in the Earth’s crust which is released by lunar tidal forces each month in the form of earthquakes and volcanism. The acceleration in the motion of the drift of the poles and its relocation forces an increasing tempo in the shape shifting of the Equatorial zone, where 70% of tectonic activity occurs. Accordingly, earthquakes and volcanic activity should increase in frequency and magnitude.

PLANETS

The Moon this day is deep in its South Node and is a full week past Perigee. The next New Moon is March 3 and the Lunar Apogee will be four days later. (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).

We are also now two days past the planetary alignment of February 24 between Venus | Mars. The next planetary alignment will be on March 10 between Mercury | Neptune. Expect solar weather and sunspots now to remain low through to about March 5, at which point you can expect a sharp rise for a few days, then another sharp dip.

Venus is steadily moving away from the Earth so it will gradually fade. To find it, look to the East just before dawn.

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
The Almanac lays out the entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather.

COMET NEAT WATCH:

View the recent Perihelion rounding of the Sun by Comet Neat on this latest video clip. This one is much smoother and complete than the earlier versions.

http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/mpg/current_c3_13d.mpg

For a catalog of known facts and observations about this comet, go to
http://cometography.com/lcomets/2002v1.html

The size of the comet is not reported (in mass) but it is not a large comet and astronomers report that it IS NOT on any sort of collision course with the Earth. Apparently the comet’s main hard body is about 5 to 10 kilometers across.

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

The high sunspot count of 195 on Feb 9th plunged sharply down to about 15 on Feb 17, which was the lowest it has been in several years. Then it rose to approximately 85 three days early on Feb 21 for the Feb 24 Venus | Mars alignment, in the basic pattern of a “leading the alignment” rise which has prevailed for most of the alignments of the past few months.

This rise was considerably lower than I expected, given the high rise on Feb 9th. And this is great news. It truly reveals that Sunspot Cycle 23 is collapsing rapidly. The weather disturbance for this peak, which will follow in about a week, should be much smaller than the last one which dumped so much snow on the Eastern Seaboard.

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: Accordingly, the weather should be less extreme during March through July than originally projected

During the last three days, the sunspot count dipped down and has hovered between 45 and 50. Since the solar magnetic fields and flux is steady on a flatline at the moment, most likely the numbers will stablize around this area with a few small oscillations every few days until they rise sharply for the March 10 planetary alignment.

Jan Alvestad reports: “A recurrent, trans equatorial coronal hole (CH21) was in a geoeffective position on February 23-24. The northernmost part of a coronal hole (CH22) in the southern hemisphere could become geoeffective on February 26-27. A coronal hole (CH23) in the northern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on March 1.”

This means that despite the low sunspot numbers, the sun is quite irregular in its output through several “holes” in its atmosphere, out of which high amounts of ions are streaming. As these holes rotate to squarely face the Earth, the magnetic field and atmosphere of the Earth is impacted directly with a sudden flux of energy. Auroras could be seen virtually any night, magnetic readings will be unstable, and major storm fronts could form suddenly in the high latitudes in response to the increased energization.

Jan Alvestad forecasts for today and the next few: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be initially quiet on February 26. A high speed stream originating in CH21 will likely reach Earth during the day and cause a disturbance lasting until February 27 or 28 with the geomagnetic field becoming unsettled to active. Another high speed stream (from CH22) could arrive on February 28 or March 1 and prolong the unsettled to active conditions.”
See http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

The Fluxgate Monitor at the U of Alaska showed a major magnetic disturbance during the past 24 hours in the Earth’s Atmosphere. Today’s Solar Wind Speed is a modest 420.5 km/s and at this hour it is pushing

WOW

an extremely high density of 29.4: protons/cm. (Is this a typo?) Obviously the Earth this hour has just rotated into a huge solar flux stream.

Despite the recent CME fireworks with Comet Neat and the large number of coronal holes in the Sun’s atmosphere, NASA reports a very low probability of Solar storms, explosions, and new flares. I have a feeling this is not a good prediction.

Continue to expect anything with this Solar Cycle 23, but clearly THE HIGH PEAK IN SUNSPOT CYCLE 23 IS GONE FOR GOOD. During most of March, the sunspot counts should remain well below 100, probably in the 30-80 range. . Peaks above 100 MAY occur during each of the planetary alignments, but not necessarily, and they may well soar very high once again during August and September for the the planetary alignments in mid August, the Mars | Earth alignment in late August, and the flyby of this alignment by Mercury on September 10. Temporary peaks in sunspot numbers into the 200 range are possible during this period.

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

I believe that we can now affirm and confirm that the drought patterns of the last few years are breaking up. As I write, this area of central Arizona has just received another two inches of rain and more is expected today and tomorrow. Up to a foot of snow fell in most of the elevations about 6000 feet (which is a major part of Northern Arizona). Rainfall in Asia has ended the drought pattern there as well.

Necessarily, the current stormfront which is flowing from the Gulf of California over Arizona and New Mexico will migrate accros the Great Plains up to the Great Lakes and Eastern Seaboard. It should be drier by the time it hits the Eastern Seaboard in a few days and accordingly the snowfall should be drastically reduced.

Thereafter, things should begin to warm up. At the end of February, the atmosphere is likely to be pushed into higher activity once again by solar activity which came out of the Venus | Mars alignment on Feb. 24. The first week of March could be pretty stormy but it should be substantially milder than the previous waves this year so far. Thereafter the weather should be a lot more normal through to summer than we have had during the past few years.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: Summer monsoons may be late and will be ended sooner than normal by the planetary alignments which begin in mid-August, most especially by the Mars | Earth alignment at the end of August.

For additional details, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003

EL NINO WATCH:

The decline in the temperature of the mid Pacific along the Equator continues, the small tepid spot of water on the Equatorial at about Longitude West 178 is nearly gone. Accordingly, El Nino is gone. PREDICTION CONFIRMED

To view the latest water temperatures in the Pacific, go to the animated graph at NOAA’s weather center. It runs through the changing temperature of the surface of the ocean every two weeks for the past year. You can watch the late developing El Nino water (shown in red and orange) quickly break up and shrivel into the Borneo-sized patch.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

CHEMTRAILS
See http://www.deepspace4.com/pages/main/pagemain.htm

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it. You should too. Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows.

News about the 6.4 quake in China (Deep Central Asia)
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_qqac.html
Although this quake is far to the North of India, it is attributed to the tectonic collission between India and Asia

News about the 4.5 quake in the San Bernardino Mountains (East of L.A. Basin)
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/ci13935988/index.html
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=519&
ncid=519&e=26&u=/ap/20030225/ap_on_re_us/brf_california_quake_2
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=514&
ncid=514&e=5&u=/ap/20030222/ap_on_re_us/california_quake_11
(urls are wrapped onto a second line)