The Earth Changes Calendar sets forth many complex predictions which are amplified with lengthy discussions in the various articles or topical sections of this years Bulletin. The real science behind the cosmic mechanics for these predictions are discussed in the topical sections so that the reader can understand the terminology, concepts, causal connections, timing factors, the projected rates of accuracy, and how these predictions may be used in everyday life as a planning guide for minimizing the potential for disasters and maximizing the upside.
Here below is a quick synopsis of major predictions for 2003 and beyond. For a detailed look of the year 2003, see The Year In Review
Agriculture, Droughts & Floods
The final decline of the peak of high numbers of sunspots in Solar Cycle 23 during 2003 means, more probably than not, that many a drought pattern in various locales should now begin to break up during 2003. But the drought pattern will not necessarily be fully broken for many areas until 2004. Those areas which depend upon summer monsoons will continue to have their normal rain blocked by several strong planetary alignments which send sunspot counts skyrocketing for several periods during this year. Drought areas will get more rain than last year, but not enough to be normal. Many large, diverse eco-systems will continue to suffer and many farmers will still not be able to farm.
February Update: Solar Cycle 23 is breaking up more rapidly than projected. The drought should not be as bad during 2003 as during the last two years. By March 2003, the weather should become fairly "normal" until mid August, when the monsoon is likely to get cut off.
EarthquakesFor 2003 as a whole, earthquake activity should be higher than previous years, continuing a progressive 60 year upward trend in over-all seismic activity. A greater than average number of 7.0 quakes is likely and the total numbers of quakes above 3.0 should also be higher. Some clairvoyants believe that the increase in tectonic activity, including earthquakes, could be as high as 30% during 2003. Two worst periods will be April 16-18 (plus or minus three days) during a Full Moon Perigee and November 22-24 (plus or minus three days) during a New Perigee. These Syzygy/Perigee alignments are about as exact a combination of seismic windows as they ever gets.
Economics - not complete
Very little progress this year, virtually none until late Spring, then perhaps a slow improvement. The recession will linger until the war jitters and international debate over the threats of American unilateralism (imperialism) subside. If war and international polarization and conflict break out over the aggressive role of the U.S., recovery signs will be delayed. If these things are resolved by the summer of 2003, there may be enought flutters in the sails of the economy to begin a strategy of buying stocks for holding for at least two years of gains.
Hall Of Records -not complete
Treatments and some outright Cures for Cancer, Diabetes, and Arthritis will come to the fore during 2003 from traditional herbs. New modalities of treatment will show people the way to a radical shift in some forms of health care and this will gather steam in the following years. Ironically, sound science will lead the way to more reforms in the health care industry than politics will.
Magnetic Field Shift
Prediction For 2003-2005: There will continue to be a progressive drift of the Magnetic North and South Poles similar to the last 20 years, no reversals, no collapses. Magnetic North may move as much as 150 kilometers closer to the North Spin Axis.
Shifting Of The Spin Axis, Motions of the Pole
The motion of the Pole (Spin Axis) will achieve its maximum size of approximately 50 feet in diameter later this year in Chandler's Wobble. This will produce a MAX in the X Wave of Chandler's Wobble and this will likely produce at least two periods of increased seismic activity of several weeks duration for many areas later in the year. Timing will be posted during February.
Studies from more than one source will demonstrate that the rate of drift in the average location of the pole has accelerated substantially since the mid 1990's. These conclusions are likely in the Fall of 2003.
Interest in spiritual development and the application of spiritual principles to reshape the world is growing by leaps and bounds. The tensions caused by political and economic polarization around the world will push many new groups and movements to the fore.
Apparently, this Sunspot Cycle 23 is a modest cycle as cycles go. Its average peak size has been smaller than the peaks of the last two cycles in previous decades. Most likely its duration will not be as long as 48 months and indeed there is good indication now that the peak of this one ended in approximately December 2002 after a run of 40 months. For the first time since 1999, the sunspot daily count dropped to 65 on New Years Eve. By the end of 2003, the monthly average peak may be down to as low as 50 on a consistent basis, with occasional peaks caused by planetary alignments.
Volcanoes - not complete
After a first two weeks of exceptionally heavy weather extremes, the weather will become milder until the last week of January. Strong planetary alignments on January 22 and February 2 will induce a succession of heavy storm fronts which rise out of the oceans and these will begin to roll across the continents through to about February 15, giving Winter great severity in temperature and snow fall in the northern latitudes while giving summer great extremes in the southerly latitudes. Forget about Groundhog day.
A week or two of milder weather during the last part of February may be interrupted about the first of March for about two weeks as sunspot numbers soar during another major planetary alignment. This bad weather period is likely to be short and relatively mild, compared to the extremes of 2002.
About the ides of March, weather will begin to return to normal and become calm and pleasant by the end of the month. A pleasant early Spring will endure to mid-April but dont be lulled by this lull in the weather. Late April and May will bring some chaos and extemes. As several planetary alignments come and go, a succession of ocean storm fronts will roll across the continents for five to eight weeks. This may give rise to a few extremes in the weather patterns and some flooding is likely. April 20th may be very close to the very worst moment of the year for weather.
After about the first week of June, the weather should become mild to produce a lovely early summer. The summer solstice should be gorgeous. But another strong alignment on June 30 with turn the first two weeks of July into a petulant time. Summer Monsoon may be cancelled in many areas for the first two weeks, while the sunspots drive the summer rain (or winter rain in the Southern Hemisphere) far to the North and South for a brief period of time. August will turn increasingly stormy and petulant as the Earth | Mars alignment forms up and by the end of August, weathers patterns will produce extreme storms in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. Chaos and extremes will rule through to the end of September but these patterns should be milder than the extremes of 2002.
In early October the summers extremes will give way to another period of mild weather. Fall should remain beautiful though to the end of November. But after the earthquake activity of the November 23 New Moon, several strong planetary alignments will bring a sudden deep return to the blustery weather of late August and early September. In the North it will be winter knocking early on every ones door. Early snowfalls will paralyze many areas and, despite a let up in mid-December, Christmas will be much whiter than normal. In the Southern Hemisphere, it will seem as if the drought has returned. The heat waves will parch the land for nearly two months before the drought pattern finally ends and the high sunspot counts of Solar Cycle 23 finally dissolves to set the stage for recovery in 2004 and 2005.
The better part of January will remain much as the last two stormy weeks of December. By the third week, however, winter will loosen its grip until the last week of February. But once again, Groundhog Day will be a lie. Another intense round of winter weather will begin in late February and last until the Spring Equinox.
War & Peace
This year will be a very difficult year. Nations, international institutions, political parties, leaders, groups, and churches will be tested and stressed as they have not been for decades. Europeans will unify as never before, as will many Muslim countries, and they will both be polarized increasingly more and more against American assertions of the so-called Imperial Presidency. The strident proclamation on Mass Broadcast TV of "Unilateral Military Activity" by the "World's One Great Superpower", is being widely perceived throughout the world as the attempt to proclaim the American President as the world's unelected Proconsul (functioning like the ancient Roman rulers who created the Roman Empire). This perception will fuel a huge international debate and unless American policy turns against unilateral attacks on Iraq, Americans will find themselves increasingly more polarized than they have known since the 1960's, perhaps more deeply than during the 1930's.
The Year 2003 In Fast Forward Review
The key ingredient for understanding the events of the past few years and the next two or three years is Sunspot Cycle 23. Solar Sunspot Cycle 23 is still producing large numbers of sunspots, magnetic storms, and intense ionic winds which are bombarding the Earth. For almost all of 2000, 2001, and 2002, the average monthly "peaks" of sunspot counts were well above 100 with occasionally daily peaks which went up in the range of 200 to 400. These peaks in sunspot numbers generally happened when two or more planets aligned in a row, thus drawing out more than usual of the Suns electromagnetic energy
During this long period of high sunspot counts, which begin during the last few months of 1999, strong ionic currents from the Earth have over-ridden normal weather patterns to produce extreme and freakish weather. While creating one of the worst eras of drought ever recorded in many areas of the world, the high sunspots counts created history-making floods in some areas of North America, Northern Europe, Asia, and other continents. Human emotions and societies were as badly effected as the weather, even as badly damaged in some respects, as many of the agricultural crops and natural eco-systems of the world. To add to humankinds woes, many severe crop failures occurred throughout the world and these failures generated a portion of the depression wave which has swept through the Worlds economy the past 24 months. This has even left some nations teetering on the edge of social collapse.
The average monthly Sunspot count is now falling below 100 and by the end of 2003, the monthly average count may be down to below 50. This large reduction in the average sunspot counts will gradually reduce the intense energization of the atmosphere, the inflammation of human emotions and reaction patterns, and afford some relief to the hard-hit drought-stricken areas during 2003. Though the relief during 2003 will not be as much as humankind would prefer, 2004 and 2005 will bring an era of recovery. Both spirits and economies could begin to soar again, if the conflicts and war drums of 2003 can be minimized and wars in the Mid-East prevented.
During 2004 and 2005, sunspots will fade away and their peak counts, caused by planetary alignments, will seldom reach above 100. This will reduce the impact of solar weather on the Earth by one third to one half, which will allow normal climate patterns to finally resume control. By the end of 2005, people will be wondering what happened to global warming.
Before 2003 ends, there will be many explosive peaks in sunspot counts which will persist from a few to several days (these are called Sunspot Windows on the Calendar). Many of the planetary alignments which cause the sunspot peaks are clumped together during 2003 to form five periods of a few to several weeks each. Accordingly, the sunspot peaks will tend to occur in greatest numbers and produce the greatest effects during these five periods, which are:
January 22 March 15: The Earth | Jupiter Alignment
The sunspots have already soared as of this writing (Jan 21) for the planetary alignments of this period. The most massive surge will come with the Earth | Jupiter alignment of February 1. The following six weeks will set in motion a succession of wintry storms which continue to dump record amounts of snow in the Northern Hemisphere and continue Summers heat wave "down under South of the Equator not much relief in sight there from the drought pattern, but some slumps in the sunspot numbers between the alignments of this period will bring modest levels of moisture to the middle latitudes.
April 15 June 15: Double Alignments
This period will be especially virulent with storms during the last half of April. Several ups and downs in the weather, sometimes chaotic and petulant, sometimes mild. The worst storms may come during the last two weeks of April. In this case, in like a lamb, out like a Monster.
June 30 July 15: Mercury | Venus Alignment
A sudden early summer fury in the weather for a short period, then one of the most normal Julys in a long time.
August 1 September 30: The Mars Fly-by Alignment
This should be the most intense period of the year, especially near the end of August through to near the end of September. Vast, unseasonable, unusual storms once again will hit both Earth and Mars. These will cancel the normal Monsoon, parch the middle latitudes and flood the higher latitudes. Once again, like the last Earth | Mars alignment, Mars will be enveloped in a vast dust storm driven by solar ions which envelopes a major portion of the planet in choking clouds of dust for at least a month.
November 25 January 15, 2004: Mercury |Venus, Mars, Earth Plus
At least three major waves, each composed of a sequence of several continental-scale storm fronts, will roll across the higher latitudes, robbing the middle latitudes of moisture and making the higher latitudes cold and snowy.
During all of these periods, the days and weeks of high ionic solar influx will tend to over-ride normal weather patterns to cause extremes chaos in the weather.
Most unfortunately, the peak periods of Sunspot counts and ionic influx will over-ride normal rainfall patterns during both the Winter and the Summer Monsoons in the areas which have been severely parched by drought during the past 3.5 years. Accordingly, expect a little relief this Winter and Spring, but not enough to end the basic drought pattern. Expect a dry Spring and a Summer Monsoon which is delayed at least a full week (perhaps two) from its normal schedule. Then, expect more rain than last year over a period of a few weeks before it is clipped off sooner than normal, perhaps by as much as three weeks earlier, when the inner planets begin to align with Mars.
The most likely timing of the drought periods which follow the Sunspot Windows are shown in bands of red on the Calendar.
Conversely, expect the same areas which were hit by summer floods during 2002 to be hit again. The Monsoon rain will end up being dumped in the same higher latitudes as last year, must especially during August, which will be a petulant, stormy month for all the higher latitudes.
By late August, as Mars and Earth line up perfectly, a succession of major summer storm fronts will already have begun and will keep rolling in off the oceans across the continents through to nearly the last week of September. Sunspots will soar, chaos in the atmosphere will prevail. Once again the news will be infiltrated by talk of the fearsome effects of global warming.
The good news is that all of these "special effects" from the Solar Windows should be smaller and more episodic than last year. Periods of intense weather will be punctuated more often by normal patterns. Finally, the storms of December may bring an end to the drought cycle and prepare the ground for nearly normal weather in 2004. By the end of 2005, people will be asking, what happened to global warming and the freaky weather?
Unfortunately the weather pattern for 2003 is not going to be nearly enough to the better. Those eco-systems and farm economies which have been severely damaged during the drought patterns of the last 3.5 years will not have nearly enough recovery during 2003. In general, there will be some increase in rainfall but probably not enough to provide a full recovery. In some areas, the damage is likely to worsen. Accordingly, the depression in agriculture will not begin to rebound until 2004. By 2005, much of agriculture should be able to rebound to the better years of the past, but it is wise to plan on there being an El Nino during 2005.
In the American Southwest and Mountain States, politicians and various interest groups will begin to vociferously wrangle over what to do with the widespread damage to a million plus acres where the drought directly (and indirectly through fire) has killed large strands of Ponderosa, Pinion, and even some Juniper.
These phenomena are directly caused by a wobble in the spin axis of the Earth. This wobble, known as Chandlers Wobble, has a 6.57 year cycle which induces a slow increase and then a slow decrease in underwater volcanic activity. This venting activity alternatively warms up (El Nino) and then cools off (La Nina) the temperature of the oceans in the South Pacific and along the Pacific Equator where the Earths crust is spreading the most rapidly.
The year 2002, in accordance with this cycle, should have been an El Nino year and indeed a small, mild El Nino did occur. But, the wobble cycle in the motion of the spin axis has been abnormal since 1998. Accordingly, it was impossible during most of the year to be certain if El Nino would fit into the abnormal wobble cycle. And, indeed, El Nino did not appear through the first two thirds of the year. When it did, it was late and weak.
It is a little early to make a prediction for the next El Nino, especially since the motion of the spin axis is still somewhat abnormal and appears to be slipping its general position at a faster rate. But a fairly good prediction can probably be made at the end of 2003 when the current 6.5 year cycle of Chandlers Wobble is complete. At that time the true trends will be more clear.
At the moment, the best prediction is probably that the year 2003 should be a transition year or perhaps even a La Nina will appear during the last half of the year. But La Nina is most likely to occur during 2004. If so, 2005 may be a transition year or an El Nino Year. (Some times the transition year is missing and El Nino develops right out of the La Nina and vice a verse). Or, at latest, 2006 will be the next El Nino.
If the Pacific Equatorial belt during 2003 cools rapidly enough to produce a La Nina effect for the Winter of 2004, 2005 most likely will be a transition year and 2006 will become the next El Nino year. Dont expect the La Nina year to be very extreme, it may not hardly even show, just like the failed El Nino for this year.
To find the best and worst of times, look for the strong planetary alignments.
Even as the atmosphere and weather are radically affected by the high sunspot counts which the sun produces during and right after the planetary alignments, intense reactions, sudden mood shifts, and highly emotional states are created in humans. This sudden onslaught of ionic charge amps up both the positive and negative emotional reactions, for good or for ill. Most especially, high sunspot counts strongly tend to make mental processes unstable and somewhat overwhelmed by emotions, judgements more clouded, and negative reactive patterns among people, their societies, and nation states far more intense and in the forefront.
Directly as a consequence, wars, violence, and conflicts are most likely to break out during these times, or as a consequence of actions taken or decisions made on days near the sunspot peaks caused by the planetary alignments. These are the times NOT to make decisions and NOT to begin wars or other forms of conflict.
Yet these times can be good times. High sunspot days can be high, lighthearted, joyous days, excellent times to meditate on higher spiritual values and realities. If the energy is channeled into positive thoughts, unconditional love, and efforts for healing, spiritual development can easily soar to new heights. This is a lot easier to capture while sitting on top of 6000 foot Mesas in the Southwest as you overlook territorial views which cascade for 75 miles in many directions.
Peace and love is a lot harder to realize while trapped in rush hour traffic in urban canyons. Maybe for those so trapped, these are good times to think about changing lifestyle and moving into serenity.
Nearly all the issues, conflicts, and crises in the current international scene have been directly driven by the ionic influx of Solar Cycle 23. The Palestinian Peace accords of 1998 broke down in 1999 and this current on-going "war" in Israel, which has totally obliterated the Palestinian organization, escalated in violence almost directly in tandem with the rise in the average monthly counts of sunspots. As well, the last disarmament inspections failed in Iraq in 1998 while the sunspot counts were already rising to reach the peak plateau at the end of 1999.
All through 2000 and 2001, the conflicts have escalated in emotionality, reactivity, scope, violence, and destructiveness while human mentalities and emotions struggled to ride out the intense waves of ionic energy which flowed from the high plateau of sunspot activity. Driven almost entirely by negative reactive emotions, the economy went sour, diplomacy went sour, candidacies and elections went sour, companies collapsed, Palestine collapsed, the economies of Argentina and other countries collapsed, and the Twin Towers in New York collapsed on 9/11/2001, provoking a declaration of War on Terrorism.
As well, searing droughts and unusual freak floods during 2001 struck in various portions of the globe. By May and early June of 2002, the ravages of Sunspot Cycle 23 on the environment began to finally become clear. The ionic flux from the high sunspot counts were altering most climate patterns around the world, causing extensive flood damage in high latitudes or along certain coast lines and producing killer droughts. It was clear by May 2002 that many major crops around the world would fail and the ranchers would be forced to slaughter large numbers of livestock. The droughts were also directly killing off some plant and animal species in many eco-systems, or were indirectly threatening them by parching forest lands so severely that it would be impossible to extinguish the fires which are normally started in the summer months by thunder storms.
Ominously, it also seemed that the high peak of Sunspot Cycle 23 was charging up human emotions to such high levels of hyper-activity that mental processes were becoming seriously defocused and strategic international political priorities were becoming confused and twisted into a knot of confusion.
Accordingly, the Earth Changes Bulletin News Channel issued in early June 2002 a set of predictions and warnings titled "The Oak Tree Memorandum" (the third in a series of annual or semi-annual summaries about changes in the Earth). Mandeville described the threats to the eco-system, agriculture, the economy, and the international effort against terrorism. He predicted extensive drought-caused losses among the forests of Central Arizona, failures of many agricultural crops around the world, the probable loss of 10 million acres in the Western U.S. to huge uncontrollable fire storms, continuation of the recession, the collapse of tourism and the aviation industry, dire economic straits in the agricultural and rural economies, and the emergence of a huge depressive economic wave around the world. As result of these adverse trends, Mandeville predicted that American moods, opinions, and politics would teeter-tooter indecisively, keep all elections in considerable doubt, and eventually create a stalemated government.
Additionally, Mandeville predicted in the "Oak Tree Memorandum" that trying to go after Saddam Hussein and the "Axis of Evil" was a serious mistake. He predicted that it would divert attention from both the Palestinian Conflict and the War on Terrorism. He foresaw that the International Peace Conference on Peace in Palestine would never finish its work as nations became distracted and divided, even polarized in opposition, about what to do with Iraq. As well, he foresaw that U.S. Policy makers would be distracted from completing the steps necessary to insure sound programs for normalizing Afghanistan. He predicted that a focus on Iraq was not only irrelevant to the War On Terrorism, it would undermine the success of the war and allow Al Qaeda to escape, regroup, and even let Osama Bin Laden slip away into increasing obscurity.
Mandeville repeatedly warned that high sunspot counts would continue to inflame emotions, generate exaggerated reactions, and end up polarizing and fragmenting both U.S. and international reactions, UNLESS governments focused on creating peace in Palestine for the Palestinians and Israelis.
Mandeville from July through October, predicted that a build up of war to topple Saddam Hussein would embroil U.S. foreign policy in confusing complications while it polarized Arab and Muslim countries more and more against the U.S. and increasingly isolated the U.S. throughout the world, including from the traditional allies among the Euro peoples. Mandeville predicted that such a war would eventually fragment domestic unity at home and generate such discord that the War On Terrorism would become largely forgotten. By Fall of 2002, Mandeville warned that a cabal of right wing forces appeared to be successfully ramrodding a war against Iraq down everyones throats.
Unfortunately, Mandeville called it exactly correct. The U.S. government has undertaken the path of an untimely, inappropriate, aggressive warlike policy in Iraq which has progressively destroyed its credibility both domestically and internationally. As things stand in January 2003, the Bush administration has broken its solemn pledge to invoke an international peace conference during the summer of 2002 to solve the Palestinian conflict, has failed to create a stable Afghanistan while allowing warlords to recreate the poppy trade, has repeatedly stated that it intends to undercut the United Nations and ignore international law and treaties with a unilateralist approach if necessary, and has been so distracted by cross vectors that it incompetently handled issues related to North Korea in a two week Keystone cops escapade. With huge loss of face in Asia, by the observation of nearly all informed observers from all political persuasions, U.S. has blundered so badly that the new President-elect of South Korea is publicly asking U.S. diplomats to back off North Korea and the Russians have stepped in to negotiate a series of compromises with North Korea while U.S. diplomats vacate the field.
This has torn the credibility of the U.S. government into tatters and left its statements high and dry without believability in many nations of the world. This has been greatly accentuated by the lack of persuasive proof about bio, chem, and nuclear weapons in Iraq. The lack of proof, combined with many threadbare attempts to simply manipulate opinion into war without the relevant facts, has provoked a huge international and domestic outcry against any U.S. invasion of Iraq. At the militant insistence of the French, Germans, and Russians, a U.N. disarmament inspection team has been placed in Iraq as a buffer against an American invasion, a massive anti-war demonstration campaign is being organized around the world, the chief nations of Europe are sure to cast vetoes in the U.N. security council against any war, Turkey refuses to provide bases for a unilateral U.S. invasion, and the Russians have set sail towards the Persian gulf with three aircraft carrier armadas to stand off the coast of Iraq "as observers" and no doubt as custodians for the massive investments they have made in the Iraqi oil industry.
War & Peace 2003
How will it all play out during 2003. Not well. An American right wing cabal is now openly professing an imperial policy with a Proconsul position over the world for the U.S. President. They propose that the U.S. will no longer influence the world as in years long past by being right, but by being DOMINANT, for which the codeword "the worlds only superpower" is used. Their line of reasoning has managed to co-opt major portions of both political parties and the mass media.
Unfortunately, this Zeitgeist of America The Dominant is not playing well in much of the worlds opinion and it will begin to collide rather roughly with the street during 2003. This will not be a happy time.
For 2003, this means high levels of conflict, confrontation, violence, and perhaps war in Iraq, and if so, many large-scale urban demonstrations, strikes, and even riots in various portions of the world.
Europeans and Muslim nations will unify as never before. Americans will fragment as never before, tearing apart political parties and many careers. People en masse will confront realities about America and the world they have been avoiding for a long time and they will be forced to make fundamental, but very painful personal decisions about their own values and connections.
Much of this could be avoided if people will focus on cooperation, mutuality, agreement, and peace. But it appears at the beginning of 2003 that Americas dominant groups and classes are too enamored of America The Dominant. Accordingly, it seems that history must prepare yet another sad lesson for those who would pretend to rule the world without a decent respect for the opinion of humanity. This lesson may take several years to play out.
From this, the political balance of power will begin to shift during 2004/5/6 in fundamental ways. Many new spiritual movements will suddenly blossom to change the religious and political landscape.
Due to the extreme droughts and floods, the ag industry is reeling worldwide. This has added considerable depth to the recession. If you combine the failure of agriculture with the collapse of tourism and the airline industry which 911 created, you have a pretty good explanation for the depth and duration of the recession.
Announcements by major retailers and other large corporations in January 2003 suggest strongly that the depression wave may be still underway. Apparently the economy has not yet found bottom. I doubt very much there is anything in the cards for that until at least another six months. It is doubtful that any economic recovery will begin to be felt until much later in the year, probably not until Fall of 2003.
Expect economic conditions to persist as they are until summer while a divided U.S. government wrangles over how to stimulate the economy. Stock markets will churn up and down, just like the sunspot counts, while institutions try to find the basis of a new platform for growing the next bull market.
IT APPEARS that there is a good possibility that Solar Cycle 23 Peak WILL decline rapidly enough to avoid continuation of the drought period beyond the next couple of months. If so, agriculture should be able to begin to rebound this year. But do not expect a full recovery. Sunspot counts will shorten the normal monsoon and keep the drought areas too dry.
Famines are likely to become major headline news during 2003. There are many nations which will need emergency help with massive airlifts.
The economy has for the most part bottomed out but restructuring is still continuing and keeping labor markets very very soft. But new activities and new reports will generally be more encouraging than discouraging, except for the bankruptcies and crisis of confidence in corporate culture. Wrangling over how to handle relief for many unemployed people will unnerve many people about the economy and uncertainties over War and Peace, and most especially the confusions engendered by the attempt of right wing American circles to force a war in Iraq, will keep everyone wary. International investors and buyers will be made especially skittish, prompting them to keep their money abroad.
Thus it is doubtful that an economic recovery will be showing real signs during the first six months of 2003. It is tempting to predict that not much really is in the cards for a recovery in 2003 at all, to make this one of historys longest U.S. recessions. This long duration was probably inevitable given the height of the stock bubble which burst in 1999 and 2000.
Even so, the recovery will probably begin during the later part of 2003. George W. Bush is determined to avoid the mistakes made by his father, who lost the election of 1992 to Bill Clinton largely because the economy was soft. His stimulus package as of January 2003 will not provide any impetus for a pickup in the economy but as time goes by he will probably co-opt more and more of the policies favored by the Democrats. His determination to move the economy will probably cause him to back into enough of a solution so that by 2004 the economy is moving in positive directions and employment figures are beginning improve.
The recovery will be aided a little by a trickle of improvement in the agricultural and rural economies during 2003 and a real upsurge during 2004 as the sunspots disappear and crops begin to recover. Though the aviation industry will remain severely depressed by the nightmarish security procedures, cutbacks in service, and general fretfulness on the part of the public with so much war talk and continuos terrorism underway, road travel will eventually probably pick up and improve the tourism industry. This may be interrupted for a short time, however, by an oil shortage crisis if the right wing cabal which has infiltrated American government is successful in forcing a war with Iraq.
Economies generally improve during war times because governments are forced to pursue Keynesian economic policies of creating both demand and currency to induce economic production for war time needs. This wave has begun already and it will accelerate
Mandeville predicted in June 2002 that the stock market would not recover during 2002, that is would bounce up and down but not by much most of the time, show some volatility in both directions, but in general would remain weak and well below the bubble times of 1999/2000. He advised, dont buy, dont sell, sit tight until the sunspot count goes way down. He also advised that the sunspot count would not start to go down until near the beginning of 2002. On Near Years Eve, for the first time in 3.5 years, the sunspots went down to 65, showing that the peak of Sunspot Cycle 23 was truly beginning to break, exactly to the T of what he predicted.
The stock market will continue to wobble up and down indecisively at least through to the end of February, probably through to the end of March, and most likely for many more months. During this time, the market will not show any clear signs of loss or gain.
DANGER: If the conduct of U.S. foreign policy becomes so mal-adroit that many foreign nations become unduly negative about American activities, major foreign financial institutions and corporations may begin to pull larger than normal amounts of capital out the U.S. This could create exceptional weakness in all U.S. stocks sufficient even to trip the 10% trade shut-off rules. It may take several additional months to recover from such a plunge.
Eventually, however, the stock market will begin to reflect the economic recovery. This could be any time after Spring, depending upon war conditions. Make sure that you are subscribed to the Earth Changes Bulletins. The signal for recovery for the next Bull Market will be posted exclusively to subscribers.
Year In Review
QUICK SYNOPSIS | SOLAR CYCLE 23 | EARTHQUAKES | ECONOMICS & POLITICS | WEATHER