EarthMonitor

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of June 25, 2003

You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

This update is keyed to the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar. The framework for understanding these updates and much of the current status information is maintained in capsule form in the Almanac at the locations cited in the text of this Update.

On the geophysical front, quakes are similar to last week, volcanoes are down, and the SUN, well, it is calmer at the moment than it has been but this is likely just a calming between its hyper-active moods. Sunspots at 128 yesterday with good probabilities of M Class Flares or Coronal Mass Ejections at any moment, makes this week once again subject to a hugely unstable, unpredictable, dangerous Sun.. DO NOT EXPECT A NORMAL JUNE OR JULY on any front. All warnings from last week stand: the droughts are returning, expect no relief until Fall. More tornadoes this week and more will return again during the second week in July. A minor La Nina is slipping away, no relief from that front.

On the geopolitical front, as stated last week: all conditions are decaying into increasing disorder. It is going to be a long, hot summer, violence in escalating, and the incompetence of the American positions and handling of all affairs in the Middle East is steadily producing a horrible farce. Bush and Blair will spend most of their time confronting reality and a lot of very bad karma. Beware the Earth | Mars alignment. Beware.
_____________________________________________________________________
Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.

For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor
If anyone has any suggestions about evolving these pages, now is a good time as I devote a few minutes each day to revising menus and adding new links.


HOUSEKEEPING:

RE: THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007.

I am looking forward to receiving your comments and corrections.

NEW STRUCTURE EMERGING: Instead of repeating so much background and current status information about slow-changing phenomena, links to html pages are now beginning to appear in the various sections. These will take you to overall current status information which qualifies, amplifies, and explains what we are looking at. NEWBIES will find these links especially useful. This will make the Bulletin Updates leaner and more sharply focused on changes of the moment.

IF THE LINKED PAGES REQUIRE A PASSWORD, YOU WILL NEED TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN. THOSE WHICH REQUIRE A PASSWORD WILL BE INDICATED. ALL SUCH INFORMATION IS COPYRIGHTED, PLEASE DO NOT COPY THE INFORMATION ON THE INTERNET. LET THEM SUBSCRIBE.

IF THE MATERIAL DOES NOT REQUIRE A PASSWORD, THE MATERIAL IS AVAILABLE FOR FREE AND IT MAY BE FREELY COPIED ON THE INTERNET.

SPIRITUAL WATCH – AS OBSERVED LAST WEEK

The high sunspot peaks are excellent for meditation and expanding one’s consciousness of the spiritual energies. This past peak brought forth amazing energy and power into the lives of meditaters, psychic attuners, and spiritually active healing practitioners, at least to all of those whom I have asked during the past several days about this Mercury | Uranus alignment.

The coming alignment on June 30 with Mercury | Venus will probably be even more powerful. You will have another chance leading up to the August 27 alignment of Earth with Mars. If you are not already meditating on a regular basis with a regular regime, take advantage of this next cycle to connect with new people in a wonderful way and to blow a lot of clinkers out of your being and headspace.
For more info: see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/quest

I am looking for personal adventures with the spiritual realm which correlate to the sunspot peaks and planet alignments. I think there is a lot there if we but look.

SOLICITING YOUR EXPERIENCES WITH THIS NEW SUNSPOT PEAK FOR THE MERCURY | VENUS ALIGNMENT. PLEASE SEND YOUR EXPERIENCES TO THE PHOENIX QUEST EMAIL LIST OR TO ME PERSONALLY. PLEASE TELL ME IN THE EMAIL IF YOU WANT TO KEEP IT STRICTLY PRIVATE.

POLAR MOTION
What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion GO TO:
http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#polarmotion
(watch the word wrap on the URL)
To see the current graph of polar motion, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm
Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

Steady as she goes. As previously reported, a slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration.

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING
What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of the changes in the magnetic field GO TO:
http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#earthfield
(watch the word wrap on the URL)

No news since last report: a slow acceleration of the rate of drift towards the spin axis is underway.

PLANETS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted)
For background and the current information on planetary alignments GO TO:
http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#planets
(watch the word wrap on the URL)
See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

For a FABULOUS PIX of the Mercury | Venus photographed on June 22 at 30,000 feet at sunrise, got to
http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/swpod2003/25jun03/Whittaker1.jpg
(watch the word wrap on the URL)
NASA reports: “On June 22, the planets Mercury and Venus were pleasingly close together--less than one moon-width apart in the morning sky. Brian Whittaker took this picture of the pair through the window of an airplane 33,000 feet above Africa.”

The Moon this day is still in its North Node (North of the Earth’s Equator) and we enter the syzygy period today in Lunar Apogee (2:26 UTC) some 405232 km from the Earth. The New Moon will be June 29 at 18:39 UTC, one day before the Mercury | Venus alignment. (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).

The next planetary alignment is on June 27 between and Mercury | Venus. Sunspots are rising and stand at 128 as of June 24.

This date, though arbitrary, perhaps can be considered to be a good estimation of the beginning of the slow alignment between Earth and Mars, giving a period roughly 60 days before for a slowly heightening increase in energy from the Sun.

The Earth orbit Apogee is July 4, which is when the Earth is as far from the Sun as it can get.

July 13 is the next planetary alignment: Mercury | Jupiter, this should be milder than this current peak alignment on the 30th, but stronger than the previous peak between Mercury and Uranus.

The Next Full Moon is also on July 13 at 19:21 UTC.

AS REPORTED: The Earth | Mars alignment is August 27. At 5:51 a.m. EDT on Aug. 27, 2003, Mars will be within 34,646,418 miles (55,758,006 kilometers) of Earth. This will be the closest that Mars has come to our planet in nearly 60,000 years. The Almanac Calendar was corrected to reflect this date which was calculated by NASA. For general background info on Mars and the approaching alignment, see
http://www.space.com/spacewatch/mars_preview_021108.html
(watch the word wrap on this URL)

HELP WANTED
FOR ALIGNMENTS IN GENERAL. I still cannot find a table of heliocentric planetary alignments, ANYWHERE so far (there are a lot of astronomy leads and I am slowly working my way through them) so I am now asking astronomers if they know of any. Most astronomy is tropically calculated for observing from the Earth. SO FAR, nobody knows of such a table so I am still stuck with the estimates I made using Home Planet Software. I am trying to talk with John Walker, the programmer and astronomy buff of the software, but so far I have been unable to find a working email address for him. If anybody has any connections along these lines, let me know.

VERY SIGNIFICANT: The fact that I cannot find such heliocentric tables tells me that nobody is looking at sunspots, alignments, and the weather the way we are here.

PLANET WATCHING:
For background and the current information on observable planets and planetary alignments GO TO:
http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#planets
(watch the word wrap on the URL)

CHECK OUT THE LINK ABOVE FOR BACKGROUND INFO ON THE APPROACHING EARTH | MARS ALIGNMENT. THIS IS A PROFOUNDLY IMPORTANT EVENT ON AUGUST 27TH WHICH YOU SHOULD TUNE INTO. THE SUN IS GOING TO EMIT AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF ENERGY DURING THIS PERIOD AND THIS WILL PRODUCE AN ESCALATION IN VIOLENCE AND CHAOS IN HUMAN SOCIETY.

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. For background information, go to:
http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#sunspots
(watch the word wrap on the URL)

To follow the numbers below, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

SPECIAL ALERT FROM NASA
“The ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) won't be sending images of the sun to Earth for the next 18 days due to a problem with the spacecraft's high-gain antenna. What will we do? Space weather forecasting will go on much as before: Daily images of the sun and sunspots are available from ground-based observers. Coronal holes (which spew solar wind streams that trigger auroras) and solar flares will continue to be recorded by various NOAA satellites. Nevertheless, SOHO will be missed: Without SOHO's coronagraph images, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can leave the sun undetected and sweep past Earth with little warning. Geomagnetic storms resulting from such impacts could take us by surprise. Holographic images of the sun's farside will also be unavailable during the 18-day blackout. There will be no advance warning of big sunspots before they appear on the Earth-facing side of our star.”

Apparently only the Fluxgate Monitor at the U. of Alaska, and similar sites, will be able to tell us about the solar weather we are receiving in the form of ionic “blasts”.

Sunspots climbed to 128 on June 24 after plunging to about 80 from the last peak of about 207 on June 10 for the Mercury | Uranus alignment. I expect to see a much higher peak appear during the next two days. The coming alignment between the two inner planets of Mercury and Venus should be a doozy, substantially higher counts, greater storms, flares, CME's, you name it. We are essentially already in this new alignment and its influence on the Sun should persist for the next several days

Solar flux 115 on June 24 and shows a leveling (bottoming) as if the index is about to climb again. If the graph stays level or does begin to climb within the next two or so days, expect the sunspots to begin to climb again for in a steady climb to meet the next Planetary Alignment.

AS REPORTED: Over all, the sunspot average count for February was 46.4 and for March it rose to 61.5. The number for April was 60. May’s average is 55 (as reported by Jan Alvestad).

SO FAR, FROM THE SUNSPOT COUNT FOR JUNE TO DATE, WE MAY END UP WITH A HIGHER AVERAGE COUNT IN JUNE THAN THE PRECEDING COUPLE OF MONTHS. IS SOLAR CYCLE 23 TRULY WANING??? NOT BY MUCH THIS MONTH, THAT’S FOR SURE!!! STAY TUNED ON THIS ONE.

As of this moment, the Solar Wind Speed is modest at 553.9 km/s but at this hour (about 2 PM, AZ time) it is pushing a low density of 1.5 protons/cm3. These momentary fluctuations continue to mean little during these times. Currently the Fluxgate Charts at the University of Alaska ( which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere) shows a modestly choppy solar wind and a huge gust which impacted the Earth nearly 24 hours ago. This condition could change at any moment.
To see the Fluxgate, go to
http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/magnetometer/plotstations.cgi?
(watch the word wrap on the URL )

NASA PREDICTS: “Geomagnetic activity is low now, but it could intensify around June 28th. That's when Earth will encounter a solar wind stream flowing from a coronal hole on the sun. The best observing sites (for auroras) will be at high-latitudes: e.g., southern parts of New Zealand and Australia, northern Europe, Canada and US states like Minnesota and Michigan.”

NASA’s storm and magnetic disturbance predictions continue to be too tepid.

Jan Alvestad reports: “A huge, recurrent coronal hole (CH46) mainly in the southern hemisphere and with a large leading trans equatorial extension will rotate into a geoeffective position from late on June 24 until July 2. The trans equatorial extension has become much larger over the last solar rotation.”

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 25-26 and early on June 27. Then a high speed stream from coronal hole CH46 will cause unsettled to major storm conditions until July 1 becoming unsettled to active on July 2-4.” See http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS:

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK

The weather this past week performed pretty much as expected
EXPECT THE WEATHER TO GO TO HELL
HELLO EXTREME TORNADOES
HELLO DROUGHT & HEAT CONDITIONS IN THE USUAL PLACES
FLOODS IN HIGH LATITUDES
DELAYED MONSOON

INDEED, June 25 brought us a sudden new wave of 50 tornadoes, generally in the higher latitudes of the Dakotas (rather than lower latitudes, such as Texas and Oklahoma). Expect more for a few days.

Then expect more of all this is another wave following in about another ten days to reflect the Mercury | Venus alignment sunspot peak
HELLO EXTREME TORNADOES
HELLO DROUGHT & HEAT CONDITIONS IN THE USUAL PLACES
FLOODS IN HIGH LATITUDES
DELAYED MONSOON

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: After July 5, Normal monsoon patterns WILL NOT DEVELOP ON TIME, drought conditions will return and are not likely to disappear until October or November of this year. The approaching Earth | Mars alignment may keep the solar flux index high, magnetic index high, sunspot counts high, and thus the Earth’s atmosphere expanded with the jet streams tending to flow through the high latitudes. This will tend to drive the monsoon moisture into higher latitudes, where summer floods will occasionally form up.

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment. For additional details, see http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003

Ethiopia, East Africa, and Northern India are in dire straits. Severe damage is destroying the eco-system and the human cultures. Nothing here is likely to improve during the next four months.

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS: Depends upon location and elevation. In general the DROUGHT pattern has returned. Another huge round of forest fires has begun and the forest die-off is becoming a much larger eco-catastrophe than previously reported. Conditions in Arizona forests are terrible and it is becoming doubtful whether we will retain even 50 percent of the forest ranges. Even Junipers in some ranges are dying. The impact on this region canned be described. The only reason it is not international news is because this area is so thinly populated.

LA NINA WATCH:

Conditions off the coast of Peru tend to be normalizing. The cooler than normal water is gradually warming up.

AS REPORTED: A La Nina syndrome has been developing since the beginning of April. It appears to already be at maximum and it may disappear as quickly as it appeared. Over all the Pacific is relatively COOL, in total it appears cooler than it has been for a couple of years. This is probably moderating the effects of the Sunspot counts and other solar activity on the Earth’s atmosphere. If the La Nina “cool water” along the Equator persists to some degree, it will probably tend to keep the jet stream out of the higher latitudes in the North. If it disappears, the long slow alignment with Mars will no doubt “cook our goose” to rather well done conditions by the end of August.

The next El Nino is likely to appear in 2005 or 2006, but an appearance as early as 2004 is possible.

CHEMTRAILS
For information, go to:
http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#chemtrails
(watch the word wrap on the URL)

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it. You should too. Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows.

Again like last week, magnitudes during this past week were all over the place, mostly moderate. There was one big quake out of “school”, another 7.1 quake, this one in Latin America underneath the Andes Mountains (technically listed in Brazil).

Frequencies were about normal for this period. The highest counts for 2.5 plus quakes were on June 19 and 20, which was dominated by 18 quakes in the tip of the Peloponesian Peninsula, where Greece is sinking into the Aegean Sea, as if the Earth was still in the Full Moon Syzygy influence. June 23, 24, and 25 were minimal for quake activity, even though the New Moon syzygy began today, June 25.

After Greece, the 7.1 quake in Brazil signaled a switch to the West Coast of South and North America, where quakes struck in Chile, along the Carib Plate, Mexico, New Mexico, California, Puget Sound, Alaska, then right over to Japan, with occasional activity in South Pacific and Asia. On June 22, 23, and 24, quake activity was still predominated by the Western coasts of the Americas but scattered activity was seen in Japan, South Pacific, Asia, and even the Caspian Sea.

During the last 24 hours FOUR quakes struck (4’s to 5’s) in the Mid Atlantic Ridge (spreading rift zone) on the ocean floor halfway between North America and Europe.

Doubtless, it was the tectonic plates of the Americas which were most active this past week.

RECENT EVENTS OF INTEREST THIS PAST FEW DAYS

Magnitude 4.6 GREECE
2003 June 19 03:38:21 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_vfay.html
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Magnitude 4.6
Date-Time Thursday, June 19, 2003 at 03:38:21 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Thursday, June 19, 2003 at 06:38:21 AM local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 38.59N 23.65E
Depth 20.0 kilometers
Region GREECE
Reference 65 km (40 miles) N of ATHENS, Greece
155 km (100 miles) SE of Larisa, Greece
170 km (105 miles) ENE of Patras, Greece
220 km (135 miles) NE of Kalamata, Greece

Magnitude 7.1 AMAZONAS, BRAZIL
2003 June 20 06:19:38 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_vgau.html
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Magnitude 7.1
Date-Time Friday, June 20, 2003 at 06:19:38 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Friday, June 20, 2003 at 02:19:38 AM local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 7.54S 71.62W
Depth 555.8 kilometers
Region AMAZONAS, BRAZIL
Reference 115 km (70 miles) E of Cruzeiro do Sul, Brazil
335 km (210 miles) ENE of Pucallpa, Peru
410 km (255 miles) SSW of Leticia, Colombia
2730 km (1700 miles) WNW of BRASILIA, Brazil
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Remarks Felt (IV) at Pucallpa; (III) at Aguaytia, Contamana, Huanuco and Moyobamba; (II) at Cajamarca, Huancayo, Huaraz and Lima, Peru.

Tectonic Setting
Deep earthquakes, such as this 550 km deep (340 miles deep) shock beneath western Brazil, seldom cause damage because of their distance from the earth's surface. They occur only in oceanic lithosphere that has been subducted into the Earth's mantle. The June 20 earthquake occurred within the Nazca plate, which currently underthrusts the South American plate at the Peru-Chile Trench, along the west coast of South America. As it descends from the west coast of Peru to eastern Peru, the Nazca plate is seismically active down to depths of about 170 km. Between depths of 170 km and 530 km, the Nazca plate beneath eastern Peru and western Brazil produces very few shocks. Beneath western Brazil in the region of the June 20 earthquake, the subducted Nazca plate is again seismically active between depths of 530 km and 650 km. The deep part of the Nazca plate, in which the June 20 earthquake occurred, took 10 million years or more to descend from the point at which it initially thrust under the South American plate. The largest earthquake known to have occurred in the subducted Nazca plate was the Bolivian earthquake of June 9, 1994, which had a magnitude of 8.2.

Magnitude 5.7 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
2003 June 25 01:38:41 UTC
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_vlac.htmlPreliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Magnitude 5.7
Date-Time Wednesday, June 25, 2003 at 01:38:41 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Tuesday, June 24, 2003 at 10:38:41 PM local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 28.69N 43.50W
Depth 10.0 kilometers
Region NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
Reference 1755 km (1090 miles) SW of Horta, Azores, Portugal
2565 km (1590 miles) ENE of SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico
3345 km (2080 miles) W of LISBON, Portugal


Overall North American activity was in the groove of the Syzygy Window Principle.
The USGS charts (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 309 quakes for the past seven days (which is down from last week’s 327) with the USGS chart for California/Nevada showing 227 quakes in California/Nevada during the past seven days (which is down from last week’s 253).

CHECK THE CRACKS IN NORTH AMERICA – The main weak zones in the western portion of the North American plate can easily be seen this week by looking at the map of quakes which struck during the past seven days.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/activity/index.html cracks in Western U.S.

Activity in California in proportion to activity in the remainder of North America remains disproportionately high.

The trends for most of North America were in the groove as well:
The USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 10 microquakes during the last week (samo last two weeks of 10 each) and 14 quakes scattered throughout Utah (down from 25 last week). Hood had no microquakes and the USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) showed a running total of 18 (down from 67 last week).

But the Pacific Northwest was slightly contrarian.
The USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals 34 quakes (two week sum, up from 23 microquakes last week) mostly in the Puget Sound and the Cascade Mountains in Washington State.

FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS
Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do. See http://syzygyjob.com

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

El Popo offered ONLY a 11 puff day yesterday, down from last Wednesday. Centrapred officials still contend that the current eruption episode which began in April is now over. Centrapred reports for June 25 (16:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of the Popocatepetl volcano recorded 11 low to moderate intensity exhalations, mainly accompanied by steam, gas and sometimes small amounts of ash. Also, some isolated episodes of low amplitude harmonic and high frequency tremor were detected accumulating less than 1 hour.”

Activity this past seven days has increased once again for the second straight week. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 38 volcanoes on the alert status list (down 1 from 39 from last week), 4 volcanoes on the restless list (down one from 5 from last week), and 23 on the active eruption list (same as 23 from last week).

CAYCE VOLCANISM WATCH: Pattern unclear. On the fly watch related to this probably will not work. Rigorous statistical profiling will have to be undertaken.

ECONOMIC WATCH
For background information, use password to go to:
http://michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/statusreports/statusreports.htm#economics
(watch the word wrap on the URL)

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: It is doubtful that any economic recovery will begin to be felt until later in the year, probably not until Fall of 2003.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Mass media “recovery noises” are, uh, still coming out the wrong end of the Bulls. There are more Bulls in the pasture though, and it seems like they are trying to talk each other up into a stampede kinda move. The key thing at work here seems to be the tax cut. The hustlers of the financial markets have decided that it is time to sell again because the tax cut has, uh, “primed” the economy. Don’t believe a word of it. Confidence will erode rapidly this next few weeks, financial markets are far too unpredictable.

CONFIRMED: This week the Bulls are clearly spooky.

DITECH.COM ARBITRAGER:
Last week Ditech responded to the 6% increase in new housing starts last month and all the Bull “snorts” of the past few weeks. Their TV ad rates went up from 4.875 and 5.168 to 5.125 and 5.240 for short and long term rates respectively. This week, they dropped the rates back to 4.875 and 5.168.

The Feds too. Greenspan and the boys made their 13th cut in the Federal Discount Rate for lending money to banks. They cut it 1/4 percent down to 1 percent.

So both Ditech and the Fed seem to be saying there is not enough wind in the economy, so here, have another puff of Bull hot air.

FORECAST THIS WEEK
use password to go to:
http://michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/statusreports/statusreports.htm#forecastweek
(watch the word wrap on the URL)

Up but spooky

EURO WATCH -
use password to go to:
http://michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/statusreports/statusreports.htm#euro
(watch the word wrap on the URL)

dollar is up slightly
for discussions and predictions, go to the URL above

VENEZUELA is switching to Euro pricing for its oil!!! This is the beginning of the end of the Petrodollar. What was the Bush administration thinking in thuggishly backing a putsch against a democratically elected President? Oh, of course, its just your everyday gunboat jingoism and Manifest Destiny. Sorry, I forgot. Uncle Sam has been doing that for nigh on a century, so what’s the big deal?

The price of that nasty little street altercation in Caracas aided and abetted by the CIA is the beginning of the end of the petrodollar and your ability to purchase foreign goods at current price levels. The President of Venezuela may be a socialist, but that is nobody’s business in the U.S. and man oh man are we gong to pay for insulting him and his government. By the time the conversion of international oil into euro pricing is finished, when the other oil producers switch, you can expect to pay twice as much for much of the goods the U.S. currently imports. Rumors have it this week that Malaysia is about to price its oil in euros.

Rumors also are in the wind that China is beginning to think of letting currency float free of the dollar, which will probably begin to rise in value. Under the GATT rules, China’s free time of protection is just about over and it must now let its currency trade freely. This will of course begin the acceleration of the replacement of the dollar with the euro.

JOB WATCH

The job situation still looks bleak and it will probably remain bleak throughout this year unless you have a clean background and are willing to work for less than $10/hr. in the burgeoning security industry.

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES:

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: The Bulls are making a lot of noises but expect that conditions will remain unstable. American strategy and tactics in the Middle East have clearly failed and everything there is turning into a nightmare. The markets will go south a little bit for at least a month.

CONFIRMED CONFIRMED CONFIRMED
The DJI gained 500 points during April with many 200 point mood swings to close April 30 at 8,502. The DJI gained another 350 points or so in May with many of the same kind of mood swings to close the month on May 29 at 8,850.26. We can probably expect to see an acceleration of growth during June. By the time the Dog Days set in the DJI may be up in the range of 9500, plus or minus 300, BUT this is proviso because of the fragility of both the economy and international politics. Strong negatives in the news could depress these numbers and keep the DJI under 9000. Eventually this number will flatten during July and August and will then continue to inch up during the Fall. By the end of the year, the DJI may be pushing 10,000, but only if jobs are being created and retailers are reporting a decent year end sales season.

Today, June 25, the DJI was at 9011 DOWN about 300 points from last Wednesday
Last week closed at 9,200 on June 20.

CONFIRMED CONFIRMED CONFIRMED SO FAR Expect about 9200-9300 for the close this week. Expect 200 mood swings, expect gradual inching up. Expect early July to come in at 9500. Expect a softening later in the summer as political conditions come under greater stress. In the Fall this little Bull boomlet will settle back close to 9000 for awhile.

These predictions will disappear behind passwords next week.

I AM IN A POSITION, BASED ON MY OWN LOGIC AND BASED ALSO ON CONFIRMATION FROM PSYCHIC CONNECTIONS WHICH I HAVE VALIDATED, TO PEG THE MARKETS EVEN MORE SHARPLY FOR JULY 2003 AND FOR JANUARY 2004. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED CONNECTED ON THE EBOOKS ACCESS PAGE:

This will be posted in a few days.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: If you are buying stock, buy only fundamentals. Anything else is stupid, unless you have detailed insider knowledge of a company and its prospects. You have to know personally the CEO. Failing this, you are merely sucker bait for a pathologically dishonest generation of vipers and scamsters. There are many rabidly desperate tipster tooters out there with really well written slick extremely convincing newsletters about how they are making 10,000 percent profit margins on trades of under a year in duration. These newsletters are now pouring into my email boxes. The only way they can achieve those results is to pyramid scheme you into pushing up the value for the initial insiders. You will be left holding the bag.

Just say no.

MAJOR ADVERSE CONTINGENCIES: NO CHANGE IN MOST OF THEM FROM LAST WEEK

SARS – Is rapidly disappearing, as predicted by Ruth Ryden.
Conditions in Iraq - INCREASINGLY CHAOTIC
Saddam – this old troll is going to create more problems
U.S. Diplomacy - distracted, unfocused, and self-contradicted
Price of Oil - improving
Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda – the threat is growing
U.S. Credibility – the weapons of mass destruction Big Lie is coming home to roost, this may undermine the stock markets with jitters about the survival of the Bush administration.
International Affairs – MAJOR DISASTER IN THE WORKS FROM INCOMPETENT GOVERNANCE BY BUSH AND THE IMPERIAL FACTION

PALESTINE AREA MAY BE CHANGING TO A POSITIVE CYCLE BUT I SUSPECT THAT WE ARE MERELY SEEING A CYNICAL PLAY:

PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Palestinian Peace Process – What peace process? The entire program has been defeated by Al Qaeda. Recent moves this week SEEM like progress, but read below under geopolitical watch.

HEALTH WATCH – No new status-changing alerts

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How are the sunspots likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

SIGN OF THE TIMES: it looks like, America’s hot adventure “reality” show, “The Empire Strikes Back” HAS successfully keep much of the corporate scandals under the rug. Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions…LOU DOBBS’ scoreboard: After nearly two years, 57 indicted crooks, 16 of them from Enron, 1 indicted crook is in jail, none of them is Ken Lay.

SIGN OF THE TIMES III: We still have ABSOLUTELY NO EVIDENCE THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN HAD WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. Are you holding your breath? The Army Generals this week stopped holding theirs.

SIGN OF THE TIMES IV: I wish to express my profound thanks to U.S. Defense Secretary Rumsfield. Yesterday morning at the Defense Department morning press briefing, he summarized all of the Imperial Faction’s Big Lies into one CONTINENTAL SIZED WHOPPER in which he claimed that everyone has had plenty of proof all along, and everyone has been agreed, including all of the leaders of the nations of Europe, that Saddam had major weapons of mass destruction and that the U.S. had no choice to go after them. Thank you Secretary Rumsfield for giving the Big Lie such classy rubber for serious road touring. YOU NAILED YOUR OWN BUTT TO THE WALL.

THE STRATEGIC SITUATION REMAINS AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: As conditions stand, the West in general and Bush’s Imperial Faction in particular are,
AS A MATTER OF FACT, CURRENTLY LOOSING WORLD WAR IV to master plotter Osama Bin Laden, who shows once again that he is at least two moves ahead on the chess board. The Peace Process in Palestine and the so-called Palestinian Authority are complete fabrications and illusions perpetrated by incompetent Western politicians, aided and abetted by the Mass Media which ought to know better.

Conditions in Iraq continue to worsen and the debacle continues in Palestine. It looks now like the four radical groups have succeeded in demonstrating that the Imperial Faction’s hand-picked man is merely the Imperial Faction’s hand-picked man and despite all of the histrionics and rhetoric and posturing, the name of the game is still controlled by the radicals in alliance with Chairman Arafat. NOTHING HAS CHANGED, and at best we will see a little pause with a truce in which the groups resupply themselves until the Imperial Faction realizes it has been taken for another “Arab camel ride”. THE ONE THING YOU CAN COUNT ON: THEY WILL NOT DISARM THEMSELVES AND THE PLO IS NOW MERELY AN ILLUSION OF THE WESTERN PRESS.

Currently, as conditions stand, Al Qaeda has succeeded in engaging the U.S. directly across a broad swath of diverse territory, much too big for it to understand and digest, and has begun a daily casualty count of U.S. fatalities from Palestine through to Pakistan. The U.S. has incompetently entered itself into this condition under an historically ignorant President with strategic advisors who are equally incompetent to the task. It has no effective tactics nor strategic plan for winning the vast guerilla war which is now unfolding and accelerating. Present American leadership is clueless about turning its weak, thin occupations into solutions. It is conceptually unable to even conceive of how to engage Muslims and many other Middle Eastern peoples in creating the foundations for just, stable, and enduring civil societies which are at peace.

It is going to be a long, hot summer, all conditions will continue to deteriorate as more and more people abandon the Bush administration. Sunspots will climb again at least twice into high numbers, more violence will break-out, and most elite circles in the U.S. will begin furtively to look for ways to get past Bush. The Imperial Faction will fractionate and more “inside” stories will further undermine the credibility of the U.S.

The keys to a workable path out of this horrible swamp may lie in the hands of the generals. They know the truth on the ground. And they know that Bush and his cronies are both liars and incompetent fools. Something has to give…. the generals have command of enough resources to formulate workable plans, along the lines of the Marshall Plan which rebuilt Europe after World War II, and present them to the nation and the world, FAST…but first they must finally conclude that Bush’s current cronies MUST be sidelined from commanding American foreign and military policy. The generals must learn to talk with real political scientists and sociologists to devise ways to solve the problems.

Failing a palace “insider’s revolt”, completely legal of course, it will take a major, year-long political convulsion to get rid of Bush while violence in the Middle East continues to escalate.

EarthMonitor